According to information of Peng rich company, meeting of 11 OPEC+ minister reachs the pass an imperial examination of the 179th congress that Ou Peike kicks off 9 days surely formerly 6 days to hold ahead of schedule, each are petroliferous the country agrees finally to extend agreement of reduction of output to the end of July, and those were mixed in May failed in June the country that complete reduction of output amounts to mark, will must be in in July, will mix in August will make compensation sex reduction in production in September.
Basis " OPEC+ " the agreement of reduction of output that reached in April, 23 members country starts first-run reduction in production since May, dimensions is 9.7 million pails / day, by a definite date two months. Global reduction of output and each country economy restart since May wait for interest good factor to drive international oil price to go tall all the way, WTI price accumulative total rises that month 88.4% , achieve since there was a record 1983 most a solar month of 31 days goes up, cloth is oily accumulative total rose in May 39.8% , achieve since 1999 most a solar month of 31 days goes up.
Likewise cogent report is in message of this prolate of second reduction of output on crude price. Early on June 8, price in pairs breaks through WTI and Bulunte 40 dollars: (if pursue,be shown) . However multiple profit is good under, whether does oil price still have ascendant space?
Here reduction of output, shaly business of the United States there ready to do sth
From supply end to look, overcome with the Europe admire of sand spy and Russia + the effort that alliance made your person fix eyes upon on problem of reduction of output: Europe admire overcomes total May output to be the lowermost level since 2002.
Overall and character, in May " OPEC+ " oil daily output reduces about 8.6 million pails, rate of actual reduction in production is 89% . The country such as chief of a tribe of couplet of sand spy, Russia, Oman, A and Algerian carried out reduction of output to honor the agreement May rate is higher.
According to Trade Arabia reported on June 7, oil exports sand spy first quarter total value drops compared to the same period 21.9 ％ , to 40 billion dollar, reduced about 11 billion dollar; The person that Russia regards miserable intense oil price as the dominant of battle, output of condensate of Russia oil gas fell May solstice crop 9.39 million pails, be close to Oupeike + reached goal.
Normally day produces Russia 700 thousand - 800 thousand pails natural gas condensate, this means this country the crude daily output May is 8.59 million - 8.69 million pails.
And inadequacy of Iraq, Nigeria and reduction of output of Kazakstan Si Tan brings about the dissatisfaction of sand spy and Russia, for example the rate of quota of Nigeria reduction of output that finish only 19% . And what make sand especially rusty truly is, the Iraq that regards Oupeikedi as 2 big petroliferous countries becomes the laggard that reduction of output acts. Regard OPEC+ as one part of the agreement, iraq needs to cut its oil daily output 1 million pails or so. The very high proportion that in its considering oil income the place in the budget holds, tall look forward to of oil price of Iraqi behoove hope, become the most positive petroliferous state in Oupeike.
To this Alawei of Iraqi oil minister expressed on June 2, although Iraq faces serious finance difficulty, future will still execute agreement of reduction of output strictly and have more reduction in production.
And oil price just somewhat improvement, be produced by the American shale that as easy as crushing dry weeds and smashing rotten wood passes oil price fight if business Fang sees lease of life of a gleam of, business of production of American shale oil is in changeover reduction of output, protruding shows shale oil to get used to the ability of the price quickly, overcome to Europe admire + constitute a challenge.
Because oil price drops,cut manufacturing cost, the United States manufactures business daily output since May already reduction of output 2 million pails, among them the half comes from shale oil cropland. But on June 2, energy resources of the sources of energy of Parsley of company of Permian artesian well and United States' greatest EOG of business of shale oil production announces to prepare to be in yield raises after closing manufacturing number week.
Can infer, if American shale produces business to take the advantage of the machine that oil price breaths,go again wantonly increase production, be sure to be formed to global crude market inflict heavy losses on, ou Peike + the agreement of reduction of output that hardship of all previous classics reachs, achievement also come to naught.
Chinese market drives demand to anabiosis quickly
Well-known, if oil price wants to anabiosis in the round, global demand must restore above all, reduce crude oil to supply considerably at the same time with inventory. Current as the whole world a lot of economy system " open afresh " , petroleum demand rebounds quickly to everyday 94 million reach 95 million pails.
The Asia's biggest economic system China is leading oil consumption to anabiosis, demand returned this country almost May the level before epidemic situation is eruptive. Published primary problem to be on June 2 according to website of Qatar peninsula TV station " petroleum demand picks up, tanker queues up littoral in China " the article says, rebound quickly as Chinese fuel demand, refine factory output rises. Be in China the busiest oily harbor, the tanker platoon that awaits land removed cue.
Shipping broker dealer and shipping dog data shows, there is many 20 tanker in the dock of bank of Chinese the East China Sea awaiting discharge oil. Chinese demand anabiosises and current low oil price makes oil refining trade, especially demand of business of privately owned oil refining appears " V " model anabiosis. These refinery are increasing crude oil to process a volume.
Up to by May, its are produced can utilization rate rises to 76% record-breaking, and the nadir when Feburary has 42% only. If refine mill demand keeps driving, at present crude oil imports impetus to may last to June. Trafficker Vortexa predicts, did not come 10 days, the crude oil that will 158 million reach 180 million pails is in China discharging.
Occupy the statistical data that Chinese customs total office published on June 7 additionally to show, crude oil entrance measured China to grow 19.2% compared to the same period in May, achieve the history again new tall.
Because China buys the home to be by March,bought first will May the crude oil of consign, crude oil entrance measured China to grow 19.2% considerably compared to the same period May, achieved achieve the history again new 11.34 million tall pails / day or 47.97 million tons. The volume of crude oil import May compares China 11.18 million pails when the portion achieved in November 2019 / the record tower above of the day 1.5% . The entrance of crude oil day May measures China to also compare 9.88 million pails of tower above April 14.8% . Statistical data shows, volume of average day import is crude oil of Chinese 1-5 month 10.4 million pails, than last year the corresponding period grew 4.5% .
Oil price will face real test in 41 dollars
Oil price picks up considerably, overcome to Europe admire + dominant person good news is sand spy, also be auspicious the chance that raise price. From May since reduction of output, had pushed for many times especially dene be opposite high crude price of the Asia raises the whole world price.
Shateamei was in on June 7, 2020 Oupeike + after extending reduction in production, rise July official price, shateamei still goes to carry of the Asia the price difference set that its exceed the official price of qualitative crude oil in pledging crude oil is mixed gently is mixed in Bidibai Oman is fiducial tower above 20 cent / bucket, rose for annulus comparing respectively 6.7 dollars and 5.9 dollars.
However the market thinks generally, oil price will face real test in 41 dollars level, because this is crude oil futures historic March the price before steeping fall.
Grade orgnaization Moody thinks, metaphase oil price is sure to be faced with drop trend.
Because epidemic situation accelerated the structural sex change of petroleum total demand, reduced oil industry to have the demand of reinvest to develop the oil reserves with higher cost. At the same time economy of hypothesis whole world is in second half of the year begins to anabiosis stage by stage this year, to this year before the end of the year, the level before global petroleum demand will restore to compare epidemic situation crisis is low 65 thousand pails / the day is controlled or 6% . Moody is this to already forecasted its to the metaphase of oil price from 50-70 dollar / the bucket reduced 45-65 dollar / bucket.
Moody says: "Inferior price interval reflected our point of view, namely oil price will maintain high wave motion, exceed interval coping or bottom oil price interval to will last for some time. Problem of ground fringe politics or the Oupeike that oil produces a country + the attempt that group control supplies often also can bring about oil price to fluctuate. " tall Cheng Ye expresses, global petroleum demand is improved, add Oupeike + rate of national reduction of output is rapid beyond the agreement at anticipating, but crude oil and finished product oil still have amount of quite large supply exceeds demand, near future oil price rises the space is not large.
