[civil / Du Jianguo of author of observer net column]
These days, "China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " became focal topic. Those who support this one point of view, with " lunar income is not worth 1000 yuan, this 600 million person is in which " one article is a delegate.
Look in me, "China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " say, very as big still as factual deviation. Chinese month can control income to be not worth 1000 yuan, have left and right sides of 400 million person at most.
What is the basis of this one judgement?
National statistic bureau announces the series about dweller income every year relevant data, although this does not have a month to be able to control income to be not worth the specific direct data of 1000 yuan dweller among them, nevertheless, wait for data in group according to median of income of urban and rural dweller, 5 income waiting for a portion, enough concludes roughly piece " China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " do not accord with a fact, and how much is the deviation with the fact. Labor is below.
As it happens has Chinese opening now 1.4 billion, among them how many does town population have? How many does rural population have? According to the newest statistic of national statistic bureau, city of the China end 2019 is changed rate had achieved 60.60% , namely among 1.4 billion person of Chinese, about 840 million for town dweller, 560 million for rural dweller. We assume below urban population 800 million, rural population 600 million.
National economy and bulletin of social progress statistic closed the People's Republic of China of national statistic bureau 2019 2019 the particular case of Chinese dweller income introduces as follows:
"Average per capita of dweller of annual whole nation can control income 30733 yuan, than going up year of growth 8.9% , deduct price element, grow 5.8% actually. Countrywide dweller average per capita can control income median 26523 yuan, grow 9.0% . Press cent of constant dwelling place, town dweller average per capita can control income 42359 yuan, than going up year of growth 7.9% , deduct price element, grow 5.0% actually. Town dweller average per capita can control income median 39244 yuan, grow 7.8% . Rural dweller average per capita can control income 16021 yuan, than going up year of growth 9.6% , deduct price element, grow 6.2% actually. Rural dweller average per capita can control income median 14389 yuan, grow 10.1% .
Countrywide dweller year average per capita can control income median 26523 yuan, every month is 26523 ÷ 12=2210.25 yuan. That is to say, chinese half population namely the month of 700 million person can control income to be in 2210 yuan of above, 2210 yuan the following also is 700 million.
Should satisfy " China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " , this can control income with respect to the requirement 1000 yuan of population with this 2210 interval, have 100 million person merely. Is this likely? Apparent, very little of this kind of possibility.
The analysis with our more thorough and concrete proceed and speculation.
Will see what income of month of average per capita is not worth 1000 yuan among townsman have how many person first.
Daily experience tells us, income of month of average per capita is not worth 1000 yuan among townsman, already special little, " month " civil also admit this. So, how many does this one part have after all?
Average per capita of Chinese town dweller can control income median 2019 is 39244 yuan, namely 12=3270.3 of every months of 39244 ÷ yuan. That is to say, chinese town inside 800 million person, the month of average per capita that has 400 million person can control income to be in 3270 yuan of above, the lunar income of additionally 400 million person under 3270 yuan.
Townsman month income the amount under 1000 yuan, want for certain far under 400 million, specific how many is there?
This respect also does not have direct data, nevertheless, can use " Chinese town dweller presses income 5 wait for a portion in group " this data, will help us finish speculation.
Chinese town dweller presses income 5 wait for a portion in group newest data, checked only on website of national statistic bureau 2018, if pursue.
2018, the 20% population of lowest of income of Chinese town dweller, its average income is 14386.9 yuan, namely every months of per capita is 14386.9 ÷ 12=1198.9 yuan. Of 800 million 20% be 160 million, that is to say, the income in Chinese town dweller discharged that 160 million person finally 2018, its average income is 1198 yuan.
Attention, 1198 yuan show is average income and rather than highest income, that is to say, among this 160 million person, having one share is income under 1198 yuan, one part is prep above 1198 yuan. Dig divides prep above 1198 yuan that one part, farther again dig is divided 1198 -- 1000 yuan of that one part between, after reducing this two shares, just be lunar income the population amount under 1000 yuan. Judge not hard, final specific figure, want for certain greatly under 160 million. Income of month of town dweller average per capita is not worth 1000 yuan, most estimation also with respect to 100 million fluctuation. This returns the data that was 2018, the affirmative meeting 2019 decreases further.
Between 800 million townsman, if the income of month of average per capita of 100 million person is not worth 1000 yuan, so, this means rural dweller month all income the reach 500 million person under 1000 yuan, ability is contented " income of month of 600 million person is not worth 1000 yuan " requirement.
Is this likely?
Will treat income of month of rural average per capita below under 1000 yuan have how many person.
Rural dweller average per capita can control income median 2019 14389 yuan, every month is 14389 ÷ 12=1199.08 yuan, about the same as it happens is 1200 yuan. That is to say, inside 600 million person of Chinese country, the income of month of average per capita that has 300 million person is in 1200 yuan of above, income of month of average per capita of additionally 300 million person under 1200 yuan. So, income of rural dweller month the amount under 1000 yuan, affirmative under 300 million, we have 250 million to control suppose.
Rural month income 250 million under 1000 yuan, increase urban month income 100 million under 1000 yuan, income of Chinese dweller month is not worth 1000 yuan, in all probably 350 million is control.
Suppose my analysis and conclude too conservative, careful, so add 50 million person again, come so, income of Chinese dweller month is not worth 1000 yuan, at most also in all probably 400 million person is controlled.
What make public data this is bureau of basis country statistic to make partly is reasonable conclude.
One is 3.5, 400 million the left and right sides, one is 600 million, apparent, the difference of two data is bigger still. That is to say, "China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " the error of view and fact is very big still.
Why will 600 million is with 1000 yuan connection together? This should be to come from right " countrywide dweller 5 income waiting for a portion in group " understand. National statistic bureau has been announced 2019 countrywide dweller 5 income waiting for a portion in group data, specific as follows:
"Press countrywide dweller 5 income waiting for a portion in group, average per capita of low income group can control income 7380 yuan, next income group average per capita slant to be able to control income among 15777 yuan, average per capita of intermediate income group can control income 25035 yuan, slant among on income group average per capita can control income 39230 yuan, good-paying group average per capita can control income 76401 yuan. Good-paying group average per capita can control income 76401 yuan..
The of 40% person of countrywide income lowest, namely the month of average per capita of 560 million person can control income to be (7380+15777) ÷ 12=964.875 yuan. 5.6 ≈ 6, 964.8 ≈ 1000, of Chinese income lowest (near or about) 600 million person, its are mean monthly income is not worth 1000 yuan.
Among this 600 million person, having income of month of one part average per capita is prep above 1000 yuan. Be like us in front computative, prep above of income of month of average per capita of this one part 1000 yuan, have left and right sides of 200 million person about at least, income of month of true average per capita under 1000 yuan, at most 400 million is control.
"The month of 600 million person of Chinese income lowest all can control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " , such telling is roughly possible, and " China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " do not accord with a fact.
Begin mentions " lunar income is not worth 1000 yuan, this 600 million person is in which " , clear support " China has month of 600 million person to be able to control income to be not worth 1000 yuan " , does its problem go where be?
" month " civil claim its conclusion is have according to " 70 thousand representative sample " investigation reachs, but, to the dependability of the process of this one investigation and result, the article did not do an expatiation.
" month " civil not only the has 600 million person view that is sure Chinese month can control income to be not worth 1000 yuan directly, weigh 2000 yuan clearly even to Chinese month can control income reach 964 million person below.
Apparent, contrast with the data of national statistic bureau, " month " the data of article is via removing deliberate. The place before be like is brought, the data of national statistic bureau says Chinese average per capita can control income median 2019 is 26523 yuan, that is to say, month of Chinese average per capita can control income under 2210 yuan, share 700 million person, but, arrive " month " over there article, month of mere China average per capita can control income under 2000 yuan, be as high as nine hundred and sixty-three million nine hundred and thirty thousand person.
Apparent, " month " article data and data of national statistic bureau, deviate is gotten too much, as daily as ours also experience and observation not be identical.
At last emphasizes, around China after all month of a few people can control income to be not worth 1000 yuan discussion, have another front sense, that can promote us to understand Chinese economy current situation more soberly namely, cause us to develop the attention of Chinese economy energetically to continueing.
Chinese month can control what income is not worth 1000 yuan to have be less than 400 million person or have 600 million person, explain: Although be in,the economic high speed that experienced a few years grows, people living standard had very big after changing, so, china remains the same in respect of consumption level of GDP of average per capita, per capita, average per capita lag behind at the developed country far. GDP of average per capita had 10 thousand dollars only 2019, 1/6 of insufficient United States, same, chinese average per capita can control income also greatly under the United States.
Chinese people does not pass now was to just cast off deficient and shortage to do not have a few days, standard of living is stronger than dress warmly and ear one's fill not too much, the space that need promotes and improves is very large still. Obviously pressure is very great still, obviously cannot laches, still need to continue to try best to catch up obviously, but, these a few years, it is not important that public opinion always increases rate in advocate economy however, have quality only ability is important, etc.
The problem is, without speed, helai quality? Do not keep even rate, can that make there is quality? Can you call high quality development?
Even as to, have a lot of person actually growth of advocate GDP, economy is slow come down to have nothing to do with, want dweller income to be able to rise to go all the same only. In fact, did not have GDP, income is essential most likely. By what is GDP comprised? Wait for composition by income of dweller income, company profit, government. GDP glides, economy is added fast glide, people income head when among them, can glide accordingly.
Want to increase people's income, improve people's life, whole the world is enrolled with respect to two, one is to make big cake, let economy maintain high speed growth; One divides good cake namely, and economy is added fast slower, cake is worse to divide, ordinary people is damaged more easily.
Did not have GDP to add fast, not only income, obtain employment, industrial catenary, science and technology progresses, etc, also all most likely.
Chinese people income grows the fastest, life to improve the fastest times, it is that paragraph of period that economy manages two digit to grow. At that time, how many person is moved into new residence, how many person bought a car! Also be this one stage high grows have the aid of period, chinese industry and science and technology, obtained span the progress of type, your China becomes the industrial state of global the first of all, no matter the technology still is on dimensions,go up.
Speed and quality are impartible.
These a few years, china too despise economy to grow. Hope have the aid of discusses this, everybody can take an economic growth, GDP growth seriously to come afresh.
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