Zhou Yi (on June 15) Shanghai crude price drops. Brunt agreement SC2007, with 260.6 yuan / bucket closing quotation, drop 9.9 yuan, drop for 3.66% , achieve all around new low. Virus of American new coronal affects increase sharply of case of illness, those who cause demand of pair of fuel of concussion of the 2nd infection is anxious; As the United States 6 states report feels newly increase sharply of exemple of catch a disease, craze of virus of shape of people concern coronal may be far did not end, oil price rebounds impetus stops abruptly. Phil Flynn of senior analyst of Price Futures Group expresses, oily city is in crossroad; If demand continues to improve, oil market still has very big go up space, if appear,new coronal epidemic situation brings about us to take the state of the road back to one's former position, the market can drop; Meanwhile, stock of American crude oil rises reach 538.1 million record-breaking pails, because come from sand special cheap entrance crude oil flows into the United States. Bei Kexiu this express, the amount of platform of artesian well of American crude oil that supplies vane as future reduced 7 last week, reach 199.
Couplet is in the beauty store epidemic situation of admonitory new coronal is caused to economy after be being damaged for a long time, market sentiment is exasperate; In addition, to the 2nd epidemic situation be anxious to destroy demand to restore likely; Although be below the support of OPEC+ reduction of output, oil price already picked up from 0 record-breaking in April levels, but the act that the market basically did not understand this alliance to extend reduction in production recently; Stephen Brennock of analyst of PVM Oil Associates expresses, the dangerous sex that the past proved 24 hours to underestimate consequence of economy of new coronal epidemic situation and new block to browbeat, this is not market first time to pay price conceitedly, also won't be the last time; Of crude oil anabiosis will depend on greatly of consumption pick up, the improvement that Ba Kelai forecasted the market to had digested the fastest demand and the biggest supply drop. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. This week of presiding apparitor Marco Dunand shows, unless appear the 2nd serious epidemic situation, otherwise the level that consumption of global crude oil will regain to come to make an appointment with 95 million pails everyday to December; One of ETF with oil the biggest market encounter record-breaking redemptive, the likelihood also increased crude oil pressure.
Futures contract and become friendship condition general view
Shanghai international the sources of energy trades the center becomes friendship condition on June 15, 2020 (Zhou Yi)
Trade overview and trade politic
Shanghai crude price drops. Brunt agreement SC2007, with 260.6 yuan / bucket closing quotation, drop 9.9 yuan, drop for 3.66% . Total contract clinchs a deal 359642 hands, hold a storehouse to raise 3002 hands to 159685 hands. Brunt agreement clinchs a deal 165122 hands, hold a storehouse to reduce 4864 hands to come 24999 hands.
Trade logistic: Virus of American new coronal affects increase sharply of case of illness, those who cause demand of pair of fuel of concussion of the 2nd infection is anxious; As the United States 6 states report feels newly increase sharply of exemple of catch a disease, craze of virus of shape of people concern coronal may be far did not end, oil price rebounds impetus stops abruptly.
Prop up: 30 col obtain beautiful oil prop up; 250 col keep INE crude oil prop up.
Obstruction: 300 col keep INE crude oil obstruction; Beautiful crude oil 40 col obstruction is driving.
Trade politic: Short line is main the face slants empty, nominal proposal back 280 do empty, bull proposal back 250 do much.
China reachs abroad message
[Iraqi oil grows fine class: Iraq will be exported in June average 2.8 million pails / day crude oil]
Iraqi oil grows fine class: Abide by agreement of reduction of output to accord with native interest, make region of heart of requirement library Er contribution for portion of reduction of output, respect of heart of requirement library Er was exported in June at most 370 thousand pails / recently help Iraq abides by portion of reduction of output, predict 2020 oil price of second half of the year will exceed 40 dollars / bucket, if domestic natural gas is finished by the plan almost, to 2024 Iraq will be OK stop to import natural gas from Iran, predict oil income will amount to about 2.5 billion dollar in June, include those who need to pay to international company to restrict cost of 500 million dollar among them.
[national statistic bureau: May, raw coal of dimensions above industry is produced by add turn fall, crude oil and power production are accelerated, natural gas production maintains rapidder growth]
National statistic bureau: May, manufacturing crude oil 16.46 million tons, grow 1.3% compared to the same period, the month on increasing ratio accelerates 0.4 percent; Process crude oil 57.9 million tons, grow 8.2% , than going up the month accelerates 7.4 percent. 1, May, manufacturing crude oil 80.9 million tons, grow 1.9% compared to the same period; Process crude oil two hundred and sixty-one million three hundred and ninety thousand tons, drop 1.0% ; Crude oil is imported by fall turn add, international crude price picks up quickly. May, entrance crude oil 47.97 million tons, grow 19.2% compared to the same period, the month is on drop 7.5% . 1, May, entrance crude oil two hundred and fifteen million five hundred and eighty thousand tons, grow 5.2% compared to the same period. FOB of crude oil merchandise on hand was Bulunte on May 29 34.15 dollars / bucket, the 18.11 dollars than April 30 / the bucket picks up 88.6% .
[eminent achieves: Retail price fixing adjusts oil of epicycle finished product possibility is reduced]
① achieves data to calculate according to eminent, up to on June 12 closing quotation, ratio of change of the 2nd workaday referenced crude oil of domestic is - 1.41% , current and integrated crude oil all valence is in 38 dollars / the bucket fluctuates, mean crude oil all valence still is in under floor price red line;
② to international crude market, eminent is achieved predict, iraq is active reduction of output, but demand problem still is anxious, international oil price is walked out of hard rebound quickly prices, will present dish of whole prices to give priority to, this reduced oil of epicycle finished product to move the possibility of valence window open greatly;
③ does not pass, the distance moves valence window to still have 8 weekday, floor price red line whether the breakthrough still puts uncertainty.
[national statistic bureau: Relevant industry is located in boom dilate interval, market vigor restores stage by stage]
Trade situation bearing rises. May, index of activity of business affairs of blame manufacturing industry is 53.6% , than going up the month rises 0.4 percent. Among them, index of activity of business affairs of wholesale business, retail trade is successive 3 months are in vicissitude line above, index of activity of business affairs of meal course of study is successive two months are in vicissitude line above, index of activity of business affairs of accommodation course of study rises to vicissitude line above first since Feburary. Market vigor picks up continuously. Monitor according to Department of Commerce, "51 " during the key is retail business day all sale grows 32.1% than Pure Brightness holiday; Chinese content flows with purchase federation data to show, chinese content shed industry boom index May for 54.8% , pick up than April 1.2 percent; Data of limited company of group of Chinese state railway shows, countrywide railroad day all sent passenger person-time annulus to compare growth May 37.6% , passenger flow appears to pick up quickly trend.
[the intermediary outside occupying, the oil this year is opposite predicting Mexico to will narrow to dimensions, the reason depends on market fluctuation increasing, crude price drops]
[open strength increases automobile industry, new pattern of new energy resources becomes cooperative focal point]
Newest data shows association of ① China auto industry, annulus of quantity of car produce and sale compared growth in May 4% with 5.9% , grow compared to the same period 18.2% with 14.5% , amplitude expands than parting last month 15.9 with 10.1 percent;
② the fast get warm again after a cold spell as Chinese car market, tycoon of the numerous car that cross a state grows ceaselessly to the confidence of Chinese market, increase continuously in China investment, the new energy resources, new pattern focal point that makes investment (economic reference signs up for)
[the crude oil that Korea imported from the United States in May falls come to came in November 2018 lowest]
The customs data that Zhou Yi publishs shows, the crude oil that Korea imported from the United States in May falls to since November 2018 lowest, when new coronal epidemic situation brings about fuel demand to put delay, partial refine factory undertakes equipment is maintained. Customs data shows, korea imported 956686 tons of crude oil from the United States in May, be equivalent to 226210 pails / day. This relatively go up to decrease 1.43 million tons of year of the corresponding period 33.2% . The 3rd old crude oil that the month on the United States is Korea supplies a country, be next to sand spy and Kuwait. Data shows, korea imported 3.92 million tons of crude oil especially from sand in May, be equivalent to 926, 078 pails / day, relatively get on 3.39 million tons of year of the corresponding period to increase 15.5% . Volume of import of integral crude oil was this country in May 10.57 million tons, be equivalent to 2.5 million pails / day, relatively go up 1 of year of the corresponding period, 1.27 million tons decrease 6.2% . Korea 1-5 month imports crude oil 56.91 million tons, be equivalent to 2.74 million pails / day, relatively go up 6 of year of the corresponding period, 1.17 million tons decrease 7.0% .
[Beijing of Russian president general: Beautiful protest activity is expression of in-house and deep-seated crisis]
Local time on June 14, in the interview program that Beijing of Russia president general broadcasts in Russia TV, with respect to the protest of near future United States demonstrate activity and not do one's best of beat back epidemic situation express a view. General Beijing thinks, the remonstrant demonstrate activity that American near future produces is its interior depth the expression of second crisis. Beijing of Russia president general: Without doubt, happening in the United States (protest demonstrate) it is its in-house depth the expression of second crisis. In fact, we appear on the stage from American president Telangpu when, noticed this one crisis. (CCTV news)
[national statistic bureau: Index of production of service line of business is added fast by lose the main reason that become a full member]
National statistic bureau: May, service line of business produces a situation to be improved apparently, service line of business produces an index to grow 1.0% compared to the same period, come true to growing first since this year. It is the industry such as information, finance, estate rapidder growth drives action to serving industry apparent; 2 it is traffic carrying trade by fall turn smooth; 3 it is to approve 0 live the industry such as eat regains momentum apparent.
[Iraq and many Petroleum Company reduction of output was reached in June consistent]
Weekday of ① Iraq official expresses, iraq is as large as the south already the main Petroleum Company of oil field comes to an agreement, will cut crude output further in June; Basis and Europe admire are overcome (OPEC) the global agreement that reachs what its ally reachs to reduce oil to supply, iraqi government plans to observe object of its reduction of output better;
② Iraq already overcame Petroleum Company with Russia Lu (Lukoil) come to an agreement, begin from June 13 everyday additional cut down 50 thousand pails of oil, with Xiguerna the daily output of 2 oil field falls to be controlled to 275 thousand pails;
Weekday of manager of two Iraq oil field expresses ③ , ying Yila overcomes oil ministry to ask, russia Lu overcomes Petroleum Company to cut daily output 70 thousand pails in May. Petroleum director people express, 2 crop was Xiguerna about April 395 thousand pails / day;
④ is in charge of supervising the Iraqi petroleum director that produces operation to say, state-operated bus pulls Petroleum Company (Basra Oil Company) already asked British oil (24.75, 0.68, the crop that 2.83%) company helps Lu Mai oil field cuts down about 140 thousand pails / day, at present daily output of this oil field is in 1.4 million to 1.45 million pails between;
Two Iraqi petroleum directors express ⑤ , dust gram Sen Meifu (47.17, 0.99, 2.14%) (Exxon Mobile Corp) still agree from Xiguerna an oil field again reduction of output 70 thousand pails / day, fall the crop June reach 350 thousand pails / or so days. In May, daily output reduces about 50 thousand pails, maintain at present control in 420 thousand pails;
Inspire confidence in sb does not have ⑥ Luke Petroleum Company, England Petroleum Company and Aikesenmei instantly buy is judged.
[the meeting of ministerial level group of this OPEC+ week will offer policy proposal, do not make a decision]
5 OPEC+ message personages weigh ① , the group meeting that assesses oil market situation by what OPEC takes the lead next week will suggest OPEC+ is record-breaking reduction of output undertakes cooperative, this means need to whether lengthen an agreement to have farther negotiation further.
On ② OPEC, Russia and the OPEC+ that allied country comprises agree Saturday, reduction of output 9.7 million pails / day, 10% what be equivalent to demand of the whole world before coronal shape virus erupts, the action is lengthened to the end of July.
③ carries out spent negotiation to strengthen an agreement, OPEC+ still agrees with the name controls committee to combine ministerial form (the group of JMMC) is by 2020 before attend a meeting every months. First time conference will at next week 4 hold.
Personage of ④ OPEC+ message says, although this round of conference is periodic more frequent than in the past, but the attributive of JMMC still is to be OPEC+ to offer a proposal. This is meant, won't make those who extend agreement of reduction of output instantly any decisions.
⑤ JMMC by OPEC member country Algerian, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, United Arab Emirates is mixed sand is special, and Si Tan comprises Russia of blame OPEC country and Kazakstan.
A problem that ⑥ JMMC will pay close attention to is, those did not cash whether can be the country of quota of its reduction of output done morely. The country such as 6 requirements Nigeria and Iraq is in OPEC+ last week the reduction of output before additional reduction in production is made up for during 7-9 month is insufficient.
⑦ holds in JMMC conference before today, the name is Joint Technical Committee (Joint Technical Committee, the committee of the inferior layer class of JTC) to sit a meeting.
[fund of American crude oil (USO) announce to be able to restore with " creation basket " means does business; The S-3 form that submitted this year in April already was traded by American negotiable securities committee (SEC) announces become effective]
Note: Be opposite to answer before this of crude price steep fall, this fund controller to trading means undertook adjustment, namely intermit is relied on " creation basket " (Creation Baskets) means does business, with enclosed the stock with securing an amount does business like joint fund, this means this fund to cannot have tracked crude price well and truly.
[2 quarters will decrease British oil write down at most assets of 17.5 billion dollar]
Week of British Petroleum Company shows, be opposite its came true 2050 0 after discharging plan and new coronal epidemic situation to undertake assessment to the influence of global economy, predict the 2nd quarter will be decreased mark the 13 billion property to 17.5 billion dollar. The investment after this company edits evaluates hypothesis the long-term price of crude oil is Bulunte about average every pails of 55 dollars.
Orgnaization viewpoint
[: of China peaceful futures? Does Lu of straw of an ancient nationality in China of of Mai of planning graph blow lofty of Kun awl?
Heart city new hat affected ① recently number innovation is tall those who cause the market to erupt 2 times to epidemic situation is anxious, the adjustment of this second oil price anticipates basically also in the market in, a notion is being cast before this also is consistency looks empty, spark from what drop this in light of the dot, focus of market core attention returns demand once more again above, the transmission circumstance of epidemic situation, refine factory profit and filling library motivation all produce benefit pneumatics to make to the market at present;
② beautiful oily fund is only before this much money market is too crowded during also bringing about oil price to drop, the likelihood causes trample, we think near future oil price will return concussion to adjust level, the big setting that oil price regain rises must be anabiosis continuously in demand brings finished product oil goes of library and refine factory profit pick up, of current oil price dropping to contradict to alleviation industry catenary is meddlesome, conduce to repair crude oil and finished product oil the huge gap between main area.
[Founder metaphase: ? Does cast of post angry of Da of flood Fu an ancient nationality in China directly Pi of idle star have a nightmare?
Inside and outside of ① near future dish crude oil appears after rising continuously callback, petroliferous country profit of reduction of output is good get cashing adequately, at the same time crude oil demand restores very much to be like person meaning, whole presents slow characteristic, and the country such as the United States, Brazil adds data newly to reside what do not fall high to restrict crude oil demand further to restore. In the near future main area falls without the case that supports further, message face releases benefit sky to bring about the market to avoid danger mood warms up was to spark the short line callback of oil price, as the whole world the oldest crude oil consumes a country, american epidemic situation did not alleviate evidence adds case load newly to be resided continuously tall, economic foreground anticipates pessimism, global stock market and commodity market collective drop, VIX index rises greatly, the market avoids danger mood goes once more litre;
In light of ② whole, of benefit empty mood release callback of short line of your oil price, but drop rate is rapidder, especially early days of domestic SC crude oil goes up callback deepness also may suffer a Pan Lingji outside be less than be restricted, short line is done participate in difficulty for nothing bigger. Additional, we think to the limit that supply and demand expresses evenly is improved and did not produce change namely from the logic that oil price rose since the last ten-day of a month in April, we continue to maintain the judgement that sex of oil price trend goes up, because the more on this operation suggests callback look forward to is firm,succeed add low is done much.
[derv of ground temper with fire covers benefit space hopeful to maintain perch]
Achieve data to monitor according to Jin Lian show, derv of temper with fire of near future ground crosses an area to cover benefit space to increase, resource of low of ground temper with fire or apparent to market impact. The summer comes, high temperature weather drives a car to be used with air conditioning frequent, mean benzine to enter consumptive peak period. Because production of derv of steam of ground temper with fire is proportional,adjust nevertheless, 1 to gas output presented next slippery state compared to the same period in April, since May although crop has promotion does not cross increment or not as good as derv, reason benzine whole is basic the range is relatively moderate. Ground temper with fire and advocate battalion goes up situation quite, go up all exceed 400 yuan / ton. Nevertheless temper with fire of 51 around ground is exciting shipment, benzine depreciates for a time sales promotion, and advocate battalion emphasizes particularly on the price that protect interest is maintained firm in small go up posture. Ground temper with fire crosses an area to cover benefit space to go tall. Good as benefit news is deepened further, ground temper with fire goes up sign is clear increase, reason covers benefit space to be answered stage by stage shrink (economic reference signs up for)
[Shateamei 5 Asias client agreement will be supplied in July cut down 10% to 40% ]
Say according to knowing the refinery officer of the circumstance, shateamei will 5 Asias client agreement oil will be supplied July decreased 10% to 40% . Because this information attributes confidential information, these official requirements are faceless. Of contract supply decrease to basically center amid the heavier grade crude of 3 clients, advanced after a month decreases, the contract July supplies refinery of additionally 3 Japan to was not cut down. In Shateamei is sent beyond normal office hours the email of media concern branch did not get a response instantly.
[Magendatong: The oily city share with 10 years of special sand will rise tomorrow since coming took the place of 1980 highest]
Magendatong says in a report, did not come to what be in oily city especially dene 10 years to have rate makings to rise to since taking the place of 1980 top level, because the manufacturing investment of other area after new coronal crisis is dried up. Because demand appears to break down unprecedentedly, oil price drops since this year even more 40% , make oil gas company announce to reduce expenditure. According to Magendatong, up to expenditure reduces accumulative total by 2029 625 billion dollar. Investment is constrictive will bring about crop to decrease, makings general drives Bulunte crude price rises inside two years to every pails of 60 dollars.
