CFIC introduction
According to relevant 2019 data, low income group and among slant next income groups in all 40% families door corresponding population is 610 million person, year per capita is 11485 yuan, month per capita is close 1000 yuan.
May, unemployment rate of countrywide town investigation is 5.9% , than going up the month drops 0.1 percent.
May, CPI rises compared to the same period 2.4% , go up than going up lunar fall after a rise 0.9 percent, fall after a rise lasts since Feburary.
On June 15, fu Linghui of spokesman of news of national statistic bureau portion countryman economy ran a circumstance to answer in May 2020 media asks, among them, responded to social heat to discuss first " 600 million person every months of income only 1000 yuan " problem, it is below textual:
Fu Linghui of spokesman of news of national statistic bureau with respect to the problem that portion countryman economy ran a circumstance to answer media to pay close attention to in May 2020
After national economy carried travel circumstance is released May, we get the problem that media pays close attention to in succession, reply integratedly as follows now:
1.
National economy ran continuance to anabiosis May posture, look from main economic norms, whether did economy restore degree to achieve anticipate? How to evaluate was economy behaved May?Answer: May, in the adamancy of the Party Central Committee that is core with Comrade Xi Jinping the leader falls, advance epidemic situation to prevent as a whole accuse to develop effect to continue to show with economic society, answer of go back to work produces answer business answer city is advanced in the round, manufacturing demand continues to improve, obtain employment price is overall and stable, positive factor is progressively grow in quantity, economy continues to appear restore situation, accord with on the whole anticipate. Have the following characteristics:
It is growth of implementation of industrial service line of business. Industrial growth is accelerated. May, dimensions above industry increases a value to grow 4.4% compared to the same period, than going up the month accelerates 0.5 percent, successive 2 months are growing. In kinds of 41 industry are big industry, 30 industries increase a value to achieve growth, growth area rises to 73.2% . Service line of business is produced by fall turn litre. May, service line of business produces an index to grow 1.0% compared to the same period, the month is on drop 4.5% . Look from relevant index, may, industrial the month on n increasing ratio is accelerated, service line of business is measured with freight of n, railroad by fall turn litre.
2 it is to consume investment to continue to improve. The market sells get warm again after a cold spell. May, social consumable total volume of retail sales drops compared to the same period 2.8% , than going up the month closes narrow 4.7 percent; Among them commodity turnover drops 0.8% , dimensions is adjacent go up level of year of the corresponding period. Basic life tastes consumption to continue to grow, upgrade kind of goods spending is relatively active, car, furniture wait to go kind of goods is retail improvement. Investment drops close apparently narrow. 1, May, fixed assets invests (do not contain farmer) drop compared to the same period 6.3% , than 1, closed April narrow 4 percent; Among them infrastructure investment drops 6.3% , close narrow 5.5 percent. Domain of hi-tech industry, society invests all by fall turn litre.
3 it is new kinetic energy increases ceaselessly. Digital economy warms up continuously, "Direct seeding takes money " etc unusually fervent, on the net that help strength retail accelerate development. 1, May, turnover of the commodity on the net grows 11.5% compared to the same period, than 1, accelerated 2.9 percent April; Occupy proportion of social consumable total volume of retail sales to amount to 24.3% , than going up year of the corresponding period increase 5.4 percent. Hi-tech industry grows to good. 1, May, hi-tech manufacturing industry increases a value to grow 3.1% compared to the same period, than 1, accelerated 2.6 percent April. New product grows quickly. May, wafer of watch of the 3D equipment that print, intelligence, integrated circuit, charge the product output such as picket grows to all be in compared to the same period 70% above.
4 it is obtain employment prices overall stability. May, unemployment rate of countrywide town investigation is 5.9% , than going up the month drops 0.1 percent. Food price fall after a rise is more drive consumptive price to go up a fall after a rise. May, dweller consumption price rises compared to the same period 2.4% , go up than going up lunar fall after a rise 0.9 percent; Among them food rises in price 10.6% , fall after a rise 4.2 percent. Core CPI keeps stable. May, the core CPI that deducts food and the sources of energy rises compared to the same period 1.1% , go up with on the month keeps balance.
5 it is enterprise answer yield continues to promote. Quick investigation shows my bureau, by May at the beginning of June, the enterprise proportion that dimensions reachs above of half of normal production level with line of business of course of study of go to work, bldg. , service is compared respectively rise by April 2.9, 9.2, 7.5 percent.
6 it is the market anticipates keep smooth. May, manufacturing industry purchases manager index for 50.6% , index of activity of business affairs of blame manufacturing industry is 53.6% , all successive 3 months maintain in critical point above. Among them, manufacturing industry production manages an activity to anticipate activity of business of manufacturing industry of index, blame anticipates the index is respectively 57.9% , 63.9% , than going up the month rises 3.9, 3.8 percent, maintain interval is enraged in taller scene.
Also want to see of course, although main May index continues to improve, but view many index from that month under go up level of year of the corresponding period, see most index still be in from accumulative total drop, show epidemic situation pounds a loss to still need to make up for, economy has not returned to normal level. The epidemic situation outside current condition continues to develop to the huge impact of world economy evolve, exterior risk challenges apparent increase, domestic economy restores to still face pressure, drive economy to return to normalization growth to need to give greater effort in the round. Should make the same score thought of socialism of characteristic of new era China in order to review to be guidance nearly, buckle closely build assignment of goal of comparatively well-off society in the round, according to " governmental working report " requirement, prevent in epidemic situation accuse to normalize premise to fall, around had done " 6 firm " the job, fulfil " 6 protect " the task, firm catchs each policy move to fulfil be born, exert oneself certain business maintains obtain employment, realize annual economy society to develop a target hard.
2. Enter 2 quarters, answer of go back to work produces answer business answer city is advanced continuously, PMI of Chinese manufacturing industry is successive 3 months are located in vicissitude line upper part, does 2 quarters economy grow whether become a full member? Beijing epidemic situation appeared recently rebound, whether can you be opposite do economy of next level whole nation restore to cause an effect?Answer: Since 2 quarters, as advance epidemic situation to prevent as a whole accuse to develop effect to show with economic society, manufacturing demand is improved continuously, positive factor accumulates increase, main index and compare clear improvement first quarter. 1, May, dimensions above industry increases a value to drop compared to the same period 2.8% , fall narrower than closing first quarter 5.6 percent, among them in April, successive in May two months are growing compared to the same period; Index of production of service line of business falls 7.7% , close narrow 4 percent, came true to growing in May among them; Social consumable total volume of retail sales drops 13.5% , close narrow 5.5 percent; Fixed assets invests (do not contain farmer) drop 6.3% , close narrow 9.8 percent.
But also want to see, indulge in wilful persecution of the epidemic situation outside the condition, world classics trade is serious and atrophic. 2 quarters, index of barometer of WTO goods commerce is 87.6, achieve the history new low; U.N. commerce and development conference are forecasted, trading business volume of commodity of 2 quarters whole world will drop than first quarter 26.9% . Meanwhile, domestic contact gather model consumption is restricted, manufacturing industry invests dynamical inadequacy, the enterprise produces management difficulty. 1, May, manufacturing industry investment drops compared to the same period 14.8% ; 1, April, profit of company of dimensions above industry drops 27.4% . The near future, circumstances of epidemic situation of domestic share area changes somewhat, still have uncertainty to economic influence.
Afore-mentioned circumstances explain, 2 quarters economy restores to be put in advantageous element already, also face difficult challenge, economy grows whether become a full member to look even economy restored a situation June how.
Look from later period circumstance, drive economy to anabiosis continuously the foundation with have better and condition. It is economy anabiosises steadily posture is apparent. Answer of go back to work produces answer business answer city is strong and virtual, industry serves course of study to achieve growth, consumptive investment drops close continuously narrow, the market expects overall stability. 2 it is macroscopical policy effect continues to show. For the enterprise new increase and decrease is lost this year predict to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, issue 1 trillion yuan to fight debt of exotic nation of epidemic disease spy, increase scope of deficit of 1 trillion yuan of finance newly, monetary credit supports strength to increase, these policy will continue to support later period economy to restore. 3 it is new kinetic energy expands continuously. Digital economy is carried in the round fast, intelligence is changed, science and technology product grows more quickly, the fast dilate such as interrogation of long-range office, online education, network, the new pattern such as goods of belt of unmanned and retail, direct seeding is ceaseless emerge in large numbers, the will strong economy that prop up grows.
Leave stage, want to had used these advantage, carry out the Party Central Committee deep decision-making deploy, had fulfilled " governmental working report " requirement, had done further " 6 firm " the job, fulfil " 6 protect " the task, force closes to national economic stability anabiosises.
3. Index of production of service line of business was added May fast by negative become a full member, what is main reason? Do next level service line of business pick up can impetus maintain?Answer: May, service line of business produces a situation to be improved apparently, service line of business produces an index to grow 1.0% compared to the same period, come true to growing first since this year. Index of production of service line of business adds fast by lose the main reason that become a full member:
It is the industry such as information, finance, estate rapidder growth drives action to serving industry apparent. Since this year, economy of Internet, number show powerful vitality, news service line of business grows quickly. 1, April, mobile Internet accumulative total receives discharge to grow 36.6% compared to the same period. May, information transmission software and index of production of IT service line of business rise 12.9% compared to the same period. Financial support is increased, credit puts in increase, financial industry stabilizes growth. May, financial industry produces an index to grow 5.2% compared to the same period. Estate sale improves, investment drops close narrow, real estate produces improvement. May, real estate produces an index to grow 7.1% compared to the same period. 3 afore-mentioned trades are total pull move service line of business to produce an index to increase 3.1 percent.
2 it is traffic carrying trade by fall turn smooth. Restore stage by stage as economy, traffic is carried, postal demand picks up, drive traffic carrying trade to restore to develop. May, goods volume rises 0.4% compared to the same period, among them railroad goods volume rises 1.3% ; The month on increasing ratio of countrywide haven port's cargo throughput accelerates 0.3 percent. Below this kind of circumstance, may, traffic carriage storage and index of postal industry production by on the month drops compared to the same period 5.0% turn to keep balance.
3 it is to approve 0 live the industry such as eat regains momentum apparent. Answer of go back to work produces answer business answer city is advanced continuously, early days suffers the life sex such as the meal of wholesale and retail, accommodation with bigger impact to serve course of study to restore apparently. May, wholesale mix with retail trade, accommodation meal course of study, rent and index of production of line of business of business affairs service falls compared to the same period respectively than going up the month closes narrow 4.5, 12, 4.1 percent.
Leave stage, restore as manufacturing life order, service line of business anabiosises posture hopeful lasts. But want to see, suffer a dweller to worry about mood influence, contact gather model consumption anabiosises slower, industry answer produces a standard related still on the low side, it is the main factor that restricts stability of service line of business to restore. May, accommodation and index of meal industry production fall compared to the same period 21.7% , meal income specified amount drops 18.9% . 1, May, turnover of merchandise of shop of general merchandise of limitation above unit drops compared to the same period 26.9% . Quick investigation shows, by May at the beginning of June, the enterprise proportion that industry of accommodation meal course of study, culture sports entertainment reachs above of half of normal production level still under 60% . For this, drive service line of business to restore to want to issue greater strength continuously. Prevent in epidemic situation accuse to normalize premise to fall, keep consumption of hurried of obtain employment certain income actively, had fulfilled decrease duty to fall expenses move, increase finance to support strength, develop creation advantage to serve industry health hard.
4. Countrywide town investigated unemployment rate to fall slightly than April May, what is the reason? The state of key group obtain employment such as the undergraduate how? Can target of annual steady obtain employment come true?Answer: Obtain employment is the people's livelihood this, the source of fortune. Height of the State Council of the Party Central Committee values obtain employment job, park of course of study of put up with " 6 firm " the job and " 6 protect " first of the task, pay close attention to the epidemic situation influence to obtain employment situation closely, comprehensive aggrandizement obtain employment is preferential policy, energetically firm hillock of aid look forward to, maintained the overall stability of obtain employment situation. May, unemployment rate of countrywide town investigation is 5.9% , than going up the month drops 0.1 percent.
Investigation unemployment rate compares the main reason that dropped somewhat April: It is economy runs progressively improvement. Manufacturing demand improves continuously, maintained stability to lay a foundation for dilate of obtain employment dimensions, obtain employment. May, dimensions above industry raises a cost compared to the same period successive 2 months grow, service line of business is produced by fall turn litre, social consumable total volume of retail sales falls that month with fixed assets investment accumulative total falls all close continuously narrow. 2 it is first policy effect shows obtain employment. Insist to decrease obtain employment of negative, firm hillock, enlarge to develop simultaneously, exert oneself certain business maintains obtain employment, catch the key group obtain employment such as worker worker of good college graduate, peasant, encourage much channel flexible obtain employment, strong ensured stability of obtain employment overall situation. 3 it is situation of employee answer hillock takes a favourable turn continuously. Quick investigation shows, by May at the beginning of June, employee answer hillock leads the proportion of dimensions above enterprise of more than 80% to increase 1.2 percent than be being investigated last, among them proportion of company of estate of industry, service rises respectively 0.6, 1.7 percent.
Also must see soberly, although investigate unemployment rate to fall slightly, but obtain employment pressure still nots allow to ignore. It is pressure of obtain employment gross bigger. Suffer epidemic situation effect, the enterprise produces management difficulty to highlight, invite applications for a job uses worker worker slow down in demand, a few individual and industrial and commercial epidemic disease hind restores a He Xiaowei company slower, induct obtain employment to be affected certainly. 1, May, countrywide town increases obtain employment newly 4.6 million person, add 1.37 million person less compared to the same period. May, countrywide town investigates unemployment rate prep above to go up year of the corresponding period 0.9 percent. 2 it is obtain employment inadequate phenomenon is relatively apparent. May, the obtain employment personnel of about 1.2% is in on-the-job not obtain employment condition, prep above in former years is normal level; Average working hours compares week of personnel of industry obtain employment on year the corresponding period decreases 0.2 hours. 3 it is the pressure of key group obtain employment such as the undergraduate still big. May, the whole nation 20, 24 years old of three-year institution of higher learning and above personnel (basically be undergraduate of new finish school) investigation unemployment rate parts than going up the month is mixed on year the corresponding period rises 1.7, 3.3 percent. College graduate dimensions is achieved this year 8.74 million, achieve the history new tall, as college graduate concentration enters a labour market, undergraduate unemployment rate may continue to rise.
Leave stage, should carry out stoutly fulfil the State Council of the Party Central Committee decision-making deploy, greater strength executive obtain employment is preferential policy, hit good policy to combine a fist, strengthen policy to cooperate in coordination, widen channel of key group obtain employment, reveal all the details of aggrandizement the people's livelihood is ensured, situation of stimulative obtain employment keeps stable.
5. CPI rose compared to the same period May 2.4% , go up successive 4 months fall after a rise, what is main reason? Whether can later period CPI go low continuously? Can annual prices circumstances appear " before tall hind low " ?Answer: Dweller consumption price rose May a fall after a rise is main because fall after a rise of partial provision price is more. May, CPI rises compared to the same period 2.4% , go up than going up lunar fall after a rise 0.9 percent, fall after a rise lasts since Feburary. CPI goes up a fall after a rise looking from the structure basically is the effect that suffers food price change. Since this year, each district height takes produce production seriously, fulfil " rice bag " the governor is in charge of making, " food basket " the mayor is in charge of making, restore live pig to produce energetically, obtain positive result. May, food price rises compared to the same period 10.6% , go up a consecutive fall after a rise; Among them, pork rises in price 81.7% , successive 3 months fall after a rise; Price of egg, fresh vegetable falls respectively 14.5% , 8.5% , than going up the month expands 11.1, 4.8 percent.
Value of later period market is certain in have fall possibility is larger. Although policy is consumed to be driven in a series of hurried, market vivid jerk promotes somewhat, goods is retail all have improvement with meal service, market demand is progressively get warm again after a cold spell, go up certainly to prices generation play effect, but carry price overall and stable or firm in have falling requirement more: It is our country commissariat produces overall stability, in sight of bumper harvest of summer grain crops, lay next solid foundations to stabilize food value; 2 it is hog production increases, pork price promotes litre of action fall after a rise to CPI; 3 it is industrial product price low move, price fall of international heavy goods is clear, conduct to consumable price weaker; 4 it is to become warped end element influence also is in fall after a rise, 2, 3, four quarters, become warped end element will present state of the fall after a rise that chase season to the influence of CPI. Will integratedly look, price of annual dweller consumption is certain in have fall, " before tall hind low " possibility is larger.
6. Social heat is discussed recently " have 600 million person the income of every month also 1000 yuan " , is this view accorded with actual? How do you look to this?Answer: About 600 million person every month per capita 1000 yuan, can get confirm from data of countrywide household revenue and expenditure and life state investigation. According to investigation of household revenue and expenditure, example of front courtyard door can divide countrywide home to wait for a portion for 5, it is low income group respectively, among slant next income groups, intermediate income group, among slant on income group, good-paying group, the portion such as every is occupied each 20% . Among them, low income group and among slant group door number takes next income all a several proportion for 40% . Data of investigation of revenue and expenditure of 5 household waiting for a portion is published in " Chinese statistic almanac " " Chinese statistic summary " wait for statistical data to go up. For instance, " Chinese statistic almanac 2019 " the 171st page has 2013-2018 year questionnaire of household revenue and expenditure, " Chinese statistic summary 2020 " the 59th page has 2014-2019 year questionnaire of household revenue and expenditure.
According to relevant 2019 data, low income group and among slant next income groups in all 40% families door corresponding population is 610 million person, year per capita is 11485 yuan, month per capita is close 1000 yuan. Among them, low income group month of per capita under 1000 yuan, next income slant among group door month per capita prep above 1000 yuan.
19 big when these data reflected a faction our country societies that point out basically contradict is the contradiction between the good life need that people increases increasingly and lopsided scant progress, reflected the fundamental national condition of our country. Our country remains the biggest developing country on the world, vast rural area and center-west region comparative level of income of one part dweller still on the low side, the assault fortified positions that take off deficient and countryside revitalize the task very onerous. Also ought to see at the same time, develop continuously as our country economy, will have more and more low income and among slant income group waits in next income group translate into. Potential of our country home market is tremendous, development has no end. Leave stage, face domestic and international complex situation, want according to deploy of the State Council of the Party Central Committee, energetically certain business maintains obtain employment, leave no stone unturned increases dweller income, decisive battle takes off battle of deficient assault fortified positions, decide the issue of the battle builds comparatively well-off society in the round, and open builds new journey of socialistic modernization country in the round.
Article origin: Website of national statistic bureau, Bing looks
Small letter edits: Si Jingjing
