On March 24, times advance is brought in Japanese premier of 3 offer to fall, after each course such as international Olympic committee and Japanese government is consultative, announce to defer Tokyo Olympic Games to hold time to come Spring 2021.
Below the double blow that in epidemic situation influence and Olympic Games adjourn, the orgnaization is forecasted, pecuniary loss will achieve Japan 2020 -727379968 yen, enter decline a few into finality.
Picture origin: Graph bug originality
1
Loss or exceed one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight dollars
After Shen Ao is successful 2013, japan spent 7 years of time to prepare, the cost exceeds 10 billion dollar, if be held successfully, tokyo will become the city that the whole world has held the Olympic Games the 5th times twice.
The data shows, last time Japanese Olympic Games was held 1964, tokyo began large-scale infrastructure construction at that time, urban dimensions expands, traffic site grow in quantity, stadium house and other service facilities unplug the ground and case, to it relevant industry grows strong, line of business of manufacturing industry, bldg. , service, carry and communication industry was formed jointly arrived 1962 1964 " Olympic boom " .
And Japanese economy comes in nearly a few years, add fast maintain all the time be in a digit, enjoy growth even. Independent economist Du Meng is right " international finance signs up for " the reporter expresses, tokyo Olympic Games is crucial to whole Japan, was expressed great expectations. Japanese all circles hopes through Tokyo Olympic Games your countryman economy is able to fly particularly. Olympic Games delay will make Japan is carried through the Olympic Games brace up economic plan is definite degree be thwarted.
Shanghai is met via economics of Japan of director of research center of economy of trade university Japan, whole nation external vice-chairman Chen Zilei is right " international finance signs up for " the reporter expresses, the Olympic Games takes situation significance to Japanese economy cycle great, japanese government hopes to cast off the posture that economy glides through the Olympic Games. "Japan will begin in October from last year tax rate of domestic consumption tax from 8% on move to 10% , because the individual consumes coast, japanese government hope is pulled through the Olympic Games move consumption, meanwhile, drive domestic business investment and estate investment. In addition, the Olympic Games will attract large quantities of one abroad audiences, will carry brace up tourism income. And once adjourn, after these Olympic Games effect will be delayed " .
Sagacious of king of branch of Tokyo of Bank of China thinks, although Tokyo Olympic Games adjourns one year to hold,will bring adverse effect to Japanese economy, but short of close down, taking one with another, can not bring severe negative impact, just will pull after moving the demand of partial Olympic Games that economy increases this year delay, release to next year.
Wang Zhe is right " international finance signs up for " the reporter expresses, "According to Japanese Central Bank calculate, tokyo Olympic Games will be pulled move relevant demand to make an appointment with 8 trillion yen, but among them the majority already passed place construction to wait for implementation. Surpass operation of ticket sale, establishment and security charge to wait because of the Olympic Games adjourns and delaying the demand after to include to watch, according to Tokyo of effect of direct to Tokyo Olympic Games economy calculate, aggregate about one thousand nine hundred and seventy-nine billion seven hundred million yen, if this share requirement is delayed hind release one year, predict will 2020 nominal GDP is pressed fall 0.36% percent. But meanwhile, cost of the excessive outside the Olympic Games adjourns one year or mixing the direct cost with increase fixed. Safeguard one when direct cost includes to compare the relevant establishment such as village of competition ground ground, Olympic Games year, overhead expenses, team of relevant and of all kinds sports prepares for war one year more for the Olympic Games needs funds, other conduct propaganda, contact is relevant funds. Excessive cost includes to build the recycle such as village of permanent establishment, Olympic Games outside, capital city is planned east, environment and can use a gender to spill over continuously effect, of culture, education, diversity spill over effect, arouse what economic vigor and sophisticated technology application arise to spill over effect. Arouse what economic vigor and sophisticated technology application arise to spill over effect..
Close according to Japan university reputation teachs estimation of Gong Bensheng grand on the west, two kinds when afore-mentioned alluding add cost newly to amount to 640.8 billion yen about.
Du Meng thinks, the beak a contract that Olympic Games delay will cause Japanese government to go up in a few projects, and enterprise, even the chain break a contact on industrial chain, this will cause tremendous effect, conservative estimation is least loss billion dollar, be like increase indirect loss or exceed one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight dollars.
Promote the estimation before negotiable securities according to day, olympic Games delay or the GDP that cancel to will give Japan bring the negative growth of 0.7%-1.4% . The GDP gross 2019 is Japan 5 trillion dollar. That is to say, home of Olympic Games delay or the immediate loss that cancel to bring, Japan consumes a loss, and the loss that radiation effect place produces, will exceed 35 billion dollar likely.
2
"Step on brake " insufficient
Still need puissant policy
Before this, according to the data that Japanese ministerial government office publishs, after be being adjusted via seasonal element, the four seasons was spent 2019, japanese real gross domestic product (GDP) year the annulus that spend season is more atrophic than initial value 6.3% , achieve 2014 since 3 quarters lowest, also be Japanese economy glide first since 5 quarters.
According to joint company information, on March 17, japanese economy second birth takes on chancellery on the west when village Kang Renzai expands to express a view to economic influence with respect to epidemic situation on conference of senatorial budget committee, say, "This created bear to the psychology of consumer and enterprise than 2008 the concussion when global banking crisis. "This created bear to the psychology of consumer and enterprise than 2008 the concussion when global banking crisis..
Chen Zilei expresses, at present the whole world may is faced with from the grimmest situation since great 1929 depression. Epidemic situation causes shutdown stop production, special in western country, the unemployment rate of Europe and United States and diagnose number rise sharply all the way. And give priority to in order to serve industry like Tokyo, get epidemic situation the effect is relatively serious, this year quarter of just a little, japanese economy estimates also won't ideal, japanese economy negative growth had been become 2020 finality.
Wang Zhe also thinks, japanese economy is immersed in decline to fear will avoiding hard this year. "With Tokyo Olympic Games delay photograph is compared, new coronal epidemic situation is in of the whole world spread will bring bigger adverse effect to Japanese economy, basically reflect in the following respects: Foreign tourist visits day to consume slow down in demand, whole world consumption of be issued to lower levels of economy of main economy system, home is atrophic. " Wang Zhe is right " international finance signs up for " the reporter expresses.
"Suffer epidemic situation effect, the foreign tourist such as the Sino-South Korean visits day to consume demand to drop considerably, the countryman resides a segregation independently, the service line of business such as recreation of traffic of course of study of tourism of the sightseeing inside Japan, accommodation, meal course of study, passenger transport and aviation industry, culture suffers concussion tremendous. Although get control and go back to work stage by stage as Chinese epidemic situation answer produce etc gradually normalization, predict economy of 2 quarters China will restore gradually, but be in considering current epidemic situation of Euramerican each country spread posture, predict big probability of 2 quarters United States and European economy is immersed in enjoy growth considerably. Suffer this effect, export industry will face greater pressure related Japan. Together with is Euramerican the lag sex that demand glides and element of Olympic Games delay, economy of 3 quarters Japan faces negative growth risk likewise. If epidemic situation influence is changed for a long time, or will be opposite further industry of Japanese business whole world supplies catenary to bring adverse impact. Be based on above viewpoint, forecast Japanese economy likely from 2019 four quarters begin successive 4 quarters are immersed in negative growth. " Wang Zhe says.
The star exhibits the analysis that the bank issued on March 23 to say, japanese economy is immersed in decline this year a few into finality. Defer held discussion as Tokyo Olympic Games increasingly enthusiastic, hit the confidence of Japanese consumer and investment further. The concussion of together with epidemic situation, should be opposite soon Japan 2020 add fast anticipate from 0.2% reduce to - 0.6% , will become Japanese east of Shanhaiguan is big 2011 since the earthquake enjoy growth first.
On March 10, japanese government holds meeting of countermeasure of new coronal virus, release epidemic situation to prevent accuse an emergency measures the 2nd round. The government will offer about 1.6 trillion yen to be used at the financing assistance of the enterprise, lower breath or interest-free loan to the hair of medium and small businesses that suffers epidemic situation effect, will offer dimensions to be the finance capital of 430.8 billion yen, reduce the effect that epidemic situation brings through a series of finance allowance, include to extend to the enterprise " employee is in the home Yo allowance " , extend employ grant-in-aid.
In addition, japanese Central Bank will former on March 18 - meetings of 19 days of held financial policy decision arrive 16 days to hold ahead of schedule, discussion decision ETF (stock investment is fiducial) year purchase target specified number to raise 12 trillion yen from original 6 trillion yen, REIT (praedial investment is fiducial) year purchase target specified number to raise 180 billion yen from original 90 billion yen, the CP that hold big company releases and debenture target specified number from now on the 2.2 trillion yen before rises each respectively with 3.2 trillion yen 1 trillion, will set the interest-free loan system that faces financial orgnaization newly to be used at assistance of financing of medium and small businesses. Japanese Central Bank is returned will when lie between 4 years to carry out buy outright type national debt to counter-purchase (will come with contracted means agreement some date the price with the agreement by the bargainor to buyer redemptive the behavior of this creditor's rights) etc counter-purchase measure, answer money market quick and queasy brought liquidity is dried up.
Wang Zhe thinks, on the whole, it is appropriate that at present Japanese government and Central Bank implement these measure, stabilized market confidence. Second after borrowing the crisis, japanese government ever provided each to all countryman the governmental red package of 12 thousand yen in order to stimulate economy. Future, government or ginseng coordinate are opposite way that borrows the crisis, continue to extend governmental red package.
Chen Zilei expresses, two rounds of of recent Japanese urgent the way to deal with a situation, basically be a dot be aimed at new coronal to the dot of pneumonic epidemic situation eruptive, it is the defray with an accurate essence, but just rise to hold heart function in the palm, not be the policy of exciting and macroscopical economy. "Of Japanese Central Bank quantify comfortable still also be from capital market main area considers main area and economy of substance of medium and small businesses, the fluidity that solves an enterprise is in short supply problem. Japanese economy should cast off the shadow of negative growth, still need other strong policy, had not seen at present. Present policy is only ' step on brake ' , avoid economy to glide quickly. Avoid economy to glide quickly..
Reporter Li Xi child
![[Wang Junkai] which meeting is afraid of hunt of day hole eagle one day you in all my _ Wang Junkai](/d/file/mv/20180901/488.jpg)
