Core viewpoint

Economy of 2 quarters country or look forward to are firm pick up, predicting GDP is added fast 6.4% . Below the setting that goes against cycle adjustment in policy, the pressure of be issued to lower levels that current economy increases can put delay but won't end.

2 quarters stock market or present concussion to go situation, market drive element will turn to gain by appraise value, stock market industry goes situation or differentiation, periodic industry predicts will strong at defense industry. National debt yield is faced with go up pressure.

As the in pairs improvement of domestic supply and demand, industrial product price or pick up continuance. Below the anticipation that restores in demand, supply end, coloured industry slants to price impact much, tariff anticipates now stronger, steely industry faces the pressure of supply dilate, tariff anticipates now slant weak.

Report text

One, outside need to disturb supply pressure, need to hold base economy growth in the palm inside

1.2019Q1: Systole of exhausted weak supply needs outside, look forward to needs inside firm anticipate not as good as

2018, domestic economy grows the fall after a rise that chase season, four quarters fall to 6.4% , economy grows pressure of be issued to lower levels to be increased continuously. While domestic economy grows overall fall after a rise, domestic price also goes now to fall subsequently. Since 2019, domestic PPI that month compared to the same period average increase rate is 0.1% , relatively annual and the corresponding period glided respectively 2018 3.44% with 3.9% ; CPI is not food that month compared to the same period average increase rate is 1.7% , relatively annual and the corresponding period glided respectively 2018 0.5% with 0.6% ; Show in be issued to lower levels of our country economy pressure falls, no matter be industrial product producer price or consumption of blame commerce dweller,the price falls all exceeded 20% (see a picture 1) . The corresponding period, 2018 since second half of the year, continuance of domestic industry supply is contractive, investment demand sole picks up. 2019 1-2 month, industry of domestic dimensions above increases a value to grow compared to the same period by 2018 of 1-12 month 6.2% drop to 5.3% , fixed assets invests growth by 5.9% rise to 6.1% (see a picture 2) . Meanwhile, inland trade favourable balance closed continuously 2019 narrow (see a picture 3) , 2019 1-2 month, home realizes accumulative total of favorable balance of trade to amount to forty-three billion eight hundred and seventy-five million dollar, drop compared to the same period 13.32% . 2019 first quarter, below the setting that in industry supply contracts and demand picks up, industrial product price does not rise to fall instead, domestic price index is overall at the same time go situation present consistency to glide, those who increase favorable balance of trade close narrow, make clear relatively the influence at domestic element, exterior element should be an influence of current economy advocate because of.

2018 since second half of the year, global economy boom puts delay, magendatong PMI of global manufacturing industry by June 2018 53% glide to 51.4% December 2018, put delay to 50.6% Feburary 2019 again, be in since 2017 low; In main economy system, outside dividing the United States, euro area, Japan and PMI of Chinese manufacturing industry all under PMI of global manufacturing industry, and all fall to vicissitude boundary under (see a picture 4) . Suffer the effect that global economy boom glides, economy of main economy system grows bear pressure put delay, add earlier stage Sino-US trade friction upgrades influence, exterior market is contractive show wants outside making low fan, to our country economy growth also is formed restrain. Outside sufferring domestic supply systole to reach, need low confuse an impact, predict economy grows first quarter under the four seasons was spent 2018 0.1% to 6.3% .

2.2019Q2: Need to disturb outside supply lasts inside need to hold base economy growth in the palm

Since 2018, suffer home to produce can periodic put in an influence, I am homebred can supply exhausted weak and economic supply presents contractive state. 2019 1-2 month, 6 generate electricity greatly group day all volume of bad news coal rises on average compared to the same period that month - 10.93% , relatively the corresponding period dropped 2018 25 percent; Rate of start working of countrywide blast furnace is in 65% , summary prep above 2018 63% of the corresponding period, but all be worth under calendar year the corresponding period apparently; 1-2 month exit increases fast accumulative total compared to the same period - 4.6% , be in calendar year opposite low (see a picture 5) , although have the effect of seasonal element,show, but outside need low confused impact is striking. Will integratedly look, predict 2019 first half of the year, the systole that our country economy furnishs suffers boom of periphery economy system to glide influence demand is abate and will last, at the same time domestic demand is decreasing cost of duty, sales promotion, certain investment to wait go against periodic policy to conduct next meetings somewhat look forward to is firm, but the capital construction that the market gives great expectations invests (do not contain electric power) add from September fast since seeing an end, the movement is pushed to use next beginning in policy look forward to is firm pick up, time of half an year is added fast picked up 1% to 4.3% Feburary 2019, although the guiding of policy and support had certain effect, but extent is under what anticipate; And estate investment is faced with sale and capital with all possible means pressure, add fast lack high to prop up; Manufacturing industry in credit demand pressure of fall after a rise of the limit below exhausted weak influence is not decreased; Make clear further the capital construction inside year invests this year or won't remove stimulation to pull a movement to use to economy, go against cycle adjustment dimension firm ability is main purpose, the pressure of be issued to lower levels that shows current economy grows at the same time can put delay but won't end. Exterior in light of, 2 quarters are main economic system boom glides, American economy sees a setting is changeless, opposite at trade war, the concussion pressure that American economy sees growth of economy of top and Europe, day glides to export end to bring to our country is not decreased, apply then control growth of economy of our country country. Accordingly outside need exhausted what will become 2 quarterly economy of domestic to grow continuously infirmly is main disturb element, and inside needed look forward to is firm it is to basically be propped up, as March get warm again after a cold spell of domestic economy boom, economy of 2 quarters country or look forward to are firm pick up, predicting GDP is added fast or prep above is in first quarter 6.4% .

2, Euramerican economy growth puts delay, supply of our country of exhausted weak concussion needs outside

Four quarters began 2018, our country is added to American exit fast glide accelerate, to in Feburary 2019, add to beautiful exit fast drop compared to the same period 28.57% , divide a consideration seasonal outside the influence of element and commerce custom duty, add to beautiful exit fast also mix under the European Union countries of two large trade associate (see a picture 7) , and occupy to beautiful exit currently than also dropping somewhat, by 2017-2018 year all be worth 19.2% fall to 16.7% Feburary 2019; The corresponding period is occupied to European Union and Japanese exit than rising somewhat instead, it is at the beginning of 2019, to the European Union exit is occupied than successive two months exceed pair of United States export, indication European Union already exceeded the United States to become state of associate of our country the biggest export trade. And since 2018, euro area and Japanese economy grow remarkable fall after a rise, the four seasons was spent 2018, euro area and Japanese GDP grow respectively 1.3% with 0.25% , relatively four quarters dropped 2017 1.2 with 2.11 percent; And American economy although maintained,grow certainly compared to the same period, but annulus comparing is added fast economy of indication United States already 2018 2 quarters see a top, second half of the year by 4.2% continuously fall after a rise comes 2.6% , was worth eventually on March 28 fall again long to 2.2% (see a picture 8) . Since the four seasons was spent 2018, exit adds companionate to the main commerce such as beautiful, Europe, day country fast all fronts glides, custom duty of more Sino-US commerce affects indication photograph, the economy of system of exterior and main economy grows the ability that put delay is demand of export of influence our country those who carry growth advocate because of, increase the inhibition that grows to our country economy then.

1.American economy sees the top restricts consumption, beautiful debt interest rate is hanged anticipate pessimism

American respect, those who accompany American duty to change bonus gradually subsidise, individual spending expenses is added fast, demand of manufacturing industry order all puts delay gradually. The four seasons was spent 2018, american individual consumes defray to grow 2.66% compared to the same period, relatively 3 quarters drop 0.27% , also be in calendar year to come relatively low; Manufacturing industry order and quantity of goods in stock also see a top at 3 quarters, by 8.45% , 5.37% fall after a rise come 4.23% , 4.27% (see a picture 9) . 2019, expenses of American individual spending and growth of demand of manufacturing industry order suffer economy to grow those who see a top to restrict an element to still be in. In addition, since November 2018, with the United States 10 years period national debt yield accelerates fall after a rise for level of American long-term interest rate, difference receives yield of accident end beautiful debt quickly narrow; On December 3, 2018, the United States 3 years period with 5 years period national debt yield appears 11 years to come hang first; On March 22, 2019, 3 months of American mix 10 years period curve of national debt yield appears to hang, for since September 2007 first (see a picture 10) . Because economic depression of the United States on the history often happens after yield is hanged, 3 years in December 2018 period with yield of debt of 5 years of period beauty after be being hanged, after 3 many months, 3 months and yield of debt of 10 years of period beauty also appear to hang, uncertainty of outer ministry element still reachs global Central Bank by force comfortable change direction below, 10Y-2Y time interest is differred or also will hang at appearing 2019, this will increase what economic main body grows for a long time to American economy to anticipate pessimism, restrain investment thereby, global demand will go weak subsequently, cause economic depression then, this negotiates to Sino-US commerce to good rise to urge action certainly, want to if American economy is immersed in decline,consider at the same time, big probability can pass economy of world of economic resonance be a burden on to grow, outside can increasing our country further, need to increase pressure, also mean home of our country of second half of the year to economy grows or still face bigger adverse factor.

2.European economy is exhausted will last infirmly, england takes off Europe deadline again defer

European respect, since 2018, euro area is main PMI of manufacturing industry of economic country heart, law, meaning glides continuously, to euro area macroeconomic growth is applied pressure bigger. 2019 3 big countries manufacturing industry PMI all drops broken vicissitude boundary, manufacturing industry PMI was Germany and France respectively in March 44.7% with 49.8% , manufacturing industry PMI was Italy in Feburary 47.7% (see a picture 11) . Germany regards euro area as country of the biggest economy, annulus comparing added four quarterly GDP 2018 fast for 0% , and manufacturing industry PMI glided 2019 extent is increased apparently, those who get sale of global car line of business is low confuse an impact bigger; Add the Italy that gives priority to with exit to be in domestic and international adverse element (budget of commerce environment, finance) the GDP below the influence is successive two quarters annulus grows than losing, show Italian economy already was immersed in decline, accompany manufacturing industry to go weak continuously at the same time, boom anticipates Italian economy to glide further (see a picture 12) ; In euro area only French economy is added fast still calculate dovish, but PMI of French manufacturing industry also fell in March to 50% under, still need to pay close attention to continuously. Will integratedly look, growth of 2 quarters economy gets euro area the economic boom of Germany and Italy glides pressure will still last exhausted weak, and England postpones the time taking off Europe March 29, final deadline still did not decide, european market does not decide the element increases.

Look from the influence to our country, considering our country manufacturing industry is the structural principal part that gives priority to with entrepot trade, american economy sees top and euro region economy are exhausted weak supply carries more to the concussion of our country economy system now, slant relatively to the influence of net demand weak. The four seasons was spent 2018, goods and service are exported completely pull to growing when season GDP move 0.5% , relatively of 3 quarters - 0.6% still promoted 1.1 percent, and sth used to one's own advantage of four quarters home forms amount to compare growth to pull a movement to use when Ji Tong to GDP dropped 0.8 percent, capital of indication our country puts the quantity inadequacy, current situation that forms speed to be not stabilized to still exist. Accordingly, growth of external economy system puts delay to basically will yield to domestic industry growth is formed restrain, increase the pressure that domestic economy supply increases.

3, fundamental key of domestic steady growth is changeless, economic pressure puts delay but did not end

Home invests a respect, 2019 1-2 month, fixed assets invests accumulative total compared to the same period 6.1% , relatively overall 2018 pick up 0.2 percent. In 3 large investment, capital construction investment picks up 0.5 percent, and estate investment picks up 2.1 percent come 11.6% , manufacturing industry invests fall after a rise 3.6% to 5.9% (see a picture 6) . Although capital construction is firm,growth policy effect begins to reflect, but time of half an year is added fast picked up only 1% , pick up range is distinct under anticipate; Estate investment is faced with sale and capital with all possible means pressure, add fast lack high to prop up; Manufacturing industry in credit demand pressure of fall after a rise of the limit below exhausted weak influence is not decreased. In the meantime, consumption moves below fluctuant centre, economy is in at present face pressure adjust, below the setting that goes against cycle adjustment on policy, maintaining economic stability is main purpose, low investment, firm consumption will be become 2019 economic normal behavior or conditions, the market should avoid to be pulled to capital construction touch the effect too hopeful, the pressure of be issued to lower levels that current economy increases can put delay but won't end.

1.Capital construction investment picks up trend as before, finance and city cast debt end to put pressure

2018, capital construction investment suffers his to the systole of financing source is restricted and glide considerably, and go lever is the main factor that restricts capital construction to invest financing source, since the four seasons is spent, invest the overall improvement of financing area as capital construction, be not bid financing dimensions to fall among them also close stage by stage narrow, capital construction investment is added fast somewhat look forward to is firm pick up (see a picture 13) . Pressure increases in economic inside and outside all below big setting, domestic policy fundamental key changes direction to be added firmly, 2019, rate of finance budget deficit is moved to 2.8% . On one hand value added tax of be enslaved to be enslaved to is reduced reach income of land sell one's own things to decrease, finance income and end panel of income of governmental sex fund face pressure, from 2018 four quarters can see, as government spending increase, breach of finance income and expenses also increases apparently (see a picture 14) , new on April 1, 2019 value added tax is carried out formally, square government of each district of the beginning of the year reduces the income of gold of land sell one's own things to anticipate in succession, indication finance income carries pressure relatively congress restricts government spending growth.

In the meantime, capital construction investment held the proportion that increases credit newly in Feburary 2019 0.58, under 2018 the corresponding period 0.2 (see a picture 15) , predict part of domestic credit origin grew a space 2019 finite also; Additional, capital construction fundses raised by oneself in the city projects debt financing cost inferior, march 2019 3 years period (AAA) the city casts debt to expire yield 3.74% , relatively before two months rose 0.13% , but relatively overall 2018 dropped a percent (see a picture 16) . Cast debt to expire considering the city amount can increase apparently 2019, displacement debt is net this year financing forehead also will apparent atrophy, the restriction that drops debt financing space to the city also is met more apparent, form be a burden on to capital construction investment then. 2 quarters city casts debt to expire the pressure that answer carry out has add without decrease, predict 2 quarters city projected debt 2019 + the capital that displacement debt also brings hard for capital construction investment is carried brace up. Will integratedly look, capital construction fundses raised by oneself, finance income end and credit share all accept certain factor restriction, this will restrict what capital construction invests to pick up extent.

And on the other hand, we also see finance policy sends force, accelerate the devoted strength to capital construction, march bldg. PMI index 61.7% , pick up 2.5 percent. By December 2018, the State Council of accredit of countrywide National People's Congress shifts to an earlier date forehead of debt of 1.39 trillion place spends make known to lower levels, ask to be started as soon as possible issue. Governmental working report points out, planned to arrange local government 2019 special bond 2.15 trillion yuan, relatively increased 800 billion yuan last year, 1-2 month is aggregate already issued 285.9 billion yuan (see a picture 17) . National hair changes appoint of vice director Ning Ji is in March 23 " forum of Chinese development high level was met 2019 " on express, chinese general promotes significant investment in the infrastructure domain such as the sources of energy, traffic, communication, comply with law use a variety of means such as PPP to bring social capital investment into play to fill short board major project, accelerate advance a batch of major projects such as Jiang Gaotie of plain Tibet railroad, edge to plan. In January 2019, dimensions of PPP project be born is amounted to 10.78 trillion, be born rate rises to 56.64% , among them executive scope of capital construction project exceeds 2 trillion (see a picture 18) , predict to about 3E15 yuan add PPP project investment newly to will be in 2 quarters be born. In the place special debt and PPP project financing accelerate investment to fall, capital construction investment adds fast meeting to maintain pick up the climate is constant, drive actively thereby need inside certain investment, enlarge, achieve the effect that goes against cycle adjustment economy to be stabilized relatively, predict investment of 2 quarters capital construction is added fast will pick up to 7.5% the left and right sides.

2.Manufacturing industry invests limit fall after a rise, the contribution that reduce tax is pulled move small to rebound

The yield that corresponds to invest dominant for hi-tech industry of the representing with the computer in epicycle can be periodic in, 2018 end, the limit fall after a rise that we advance to accompany heavy chemical industry to invest, hi-tech invests periodic Xiang Jun to be worth a reply to adjust, manufacturing industry investment can present state of limit fall after a rise 2018 relatively 2019. 1-2 month, manufacturing industry invests fall after a rise 3.6% to 5.9% , its are main in the industry, smelt of the nonferrous metal in traditional manufacturing industry and pressure delay treatment industry to invest to drop compared to the same period 10.6% , relatively extent of end fall after a rise amounted to 13.8 percent 2018, be in recent years nadir; The manufacturing industry investment such as communication of the computer in manufacturing industry of new and high technology, electric machine and equipment grows to be respectively compared to the same period - 2.6% and - 2.2% , considerably fall after a rise 19.2 with 15.6 percent, to the manufacturing industry first quarter investment is added fast cause apparent be a burden on (see a picture 19) . In the side of this round of supply that began 2016 reform dominant is produced can fall, the four seasons was spent 2018, the yield that waits for the enterprise of heavy chemical industry that is a delegate with smelt of chemical raw material and goods, black and coloured smelt can utilization rate is respectively 72.3% , 77.7% with 77.8% , relatively the history parts bit higher fall after a rise 5.4, 1 with 2 percent, produce can go out basically clear; And epicycle is produced can dominant industry, the hi-tech industry such as computer communication, special device and current equipment suffers the profit since 2017 to push movables can utilization rate increases apparently, four quarters were respectively 2018 80.3% , 79.9% with 77% , later period is produced can grow face pressure (see a picture 20) , the industry that makes clear manufacturing industry increases a value to add fast the state that already reached relative stability, produce can grow suffer limitation to make an appointment with later period manufacturing industry to invest rapid growth.

Except produce can periodic outside, the factor of additionally two big drive such as the profit that manufacturing industry of contrast of the corresponding period invests, exit, we discover, 2019 1-2 month, delivery of industrial business exit is worth only 4.2% , be in since 2017 low; Index of order of new export of manufacturing industry PMI falls from June 2018 after broken vicissitude boundary successive 8 months are in contractive interval (21-22 seeing a picture) , in Euramerican day boom of main economy system glides below setting, manufacturing industry outlet pressure alleviates hard also in 2 quarters. Additional, profit of company of dimensions above industry begins to last from June 2018 cut to - 14% , although,at the same time annulus of new order of manufacturing industry PMI was compared in March successive two months rise to 52.7% , but large company is new in different dimensions enterprise order index annulus is compared drop 2.5% to 52.5% , order dilate puts delay, and demand of small company order by drop turn go up, company profit drops continuously first quarter and PMI rebounded in March (21-22 seeing a picture) , indication more is financing policy guides hair force to improve medium and small businesses to anticipate, and profit is cut and main still be the fall that accepts economic total demand and influence of industrial product price fall, hypostatic economy needs improvement of demand perfection face to still require follow-up attention. Accordingly, manufacturing industry investment suffers produce can grow those who reach profit fall after a rise to restrict. In the meantime, duty Wu branch began to will deepen reform of value added tax on April 1, 2019, wait for manufacturing industry the industry active the tax rate of 16% falls to 13% , move contribution to be about to manufacturing industry investment is pulled overally 1.5% , effectiveness action anticipates without the market so big. Will integratedly look, investment of 2 quarters manufacturing industry is added fast small rebound to 7% .

3.Sale, start working reachs capital fall after a rise, estate investment is adjusted changeless

Estate invested 2018 super- anticipate rise advocate because land purchases the continuance of the lag effect of growth to pull,move, second half of the year begins, because policy of adjusting control of early days estate is affected, the abidance that commodity house sells glides reach take the ground to put delay, land clinchs a deal money paid for something purchased or received for something sold is added fast glide subsequently, then land purchases fall after a rise of charge occurrence lag, continued first quarter 2019 fall after a rise, land clinched a deal in Feburary money paid for something purchased or received for something sold is added fast fall to negative growth, other charge is added in estate development investment fast also fall to 26.3% (23-24 seeing a picture) , estate development investment was added first half of the year this pair 2019 fast have apparent inhibition.

And investment of 1-2 month estate exceeded 2019 anticipate pick up 1.9 percent come 11.6% , this and the beginning of the year (before the Spring Festival) room look forward to suffers a money to pressure and small stock are affected and accelerate construction to concern. But clinch a deal except land outside increasing fast fall after a rise, new go into operation of commodity house sale, building and source of estate development capital are added fast all also appear to glide apparently, expressing what the estate at the beginning of next year invests to pick up is not the expression of estate get warm again after a cold spell, short-term rebound not to change to adjust a trend first half of the year. Specific in light of, accumulative total of area of sale of house of 1-2 month commodity is added compared to the same period fast - 3.6% , the course is successive adjustment of nearly two years dropped 40% ; The abidance that the building sells glides influence room look forward to buys degree cut down, 1-2 month land purchases an area to add fast drop considerably, to - 34.1% , relatively the corresponding period was mixed last year annual parted 2018 fall after a rise 32.9 with 48.3 percent; In the meantime, building new go into operation is protected suffer Spring Festival holiday to affect fall after a rise to 6% , prep above 2018 of the corresponding period 2.9% but under 2017 10.4% (see a picture 25) .

Additional, source of capital of development of 1-2 month estate is aggregate accumulative total compared to the same period 2.1% , relatively the corresponding period was mixed last year annual parted 2018 fall after a rise 2.7 with 4.3 percent, among them, domestic loan is added fast - 0.5% , enjoy growth continuously; Funds raised by oneself add fast - 1.5% , deposit and beforehand gathering 5.6% , part relatively on lunar fall after a rise 11.2 with 8.2 percent; Only the individual mortgages loan fund source to pick up somewhat to 6.5% , but this glides apparently with what commodity house sells again occurrence contradiction (see a picture 26) , predict durative not strong. Estate develops fund each origin is overall still hasten is close, firm syncopation of domestic loan interest rate has drop, but also be parcel area phenomenon, increase estate market lasting effect mechanism is being driven stage by stage, rely on estate to pull move fixed assets to invest investment to add fast measure won't return, sale of later period building and financing source circumstance still are to basically pay close attention to banner index. In the meantime, we pay close attention to 2018 year can progressively complete pulls more expensive new go into operation then move build install a project to add fast rise up repair will last, become estate investment to adjust a space to suffer those who be restricted is main prop up, to GDP growth also has pull move. Investment of project of 1-2 month construction finishs the forehead to add fast relatively picked up considerably 2018 11.7 percent, also prep above last year the corresponding period 6 percent. Will integratedly look, predict estate developed investment to add 2019 fast be in first quarter 10.5% , and 2 quarters or adjust to 9.5% the left and right sides.

4.Hog cycle is pulled move inflation to rebound salary and decrease tax system to make an appointment with CPI space

Since 2019, accept consumptive demand overall exhausted weak effect the dweller consumed the price to did not appear like in former years during the Spring Festival 2019 apparently seasonal pick up, inflationary continuance increase pressure and adjusted small of four quarters 2018 (see a picture) . From influence CPI food in light of the greatest pork value, african swine fever passed into our country in August 2018, live pig goes producing can accelerate, CPI pork price will fall compared to the same period in November close narrow to - 1.1% , and get the market abate to pork demand mood influence, pork price falls subsequently expand somewhat, CPI pork price fell compared to the same period in Feburary 2019 for 4.8% , relatively will enlarge 3.7 percent in November, and since 2019 index of price of pork of mart of produce market trade falls compared to the same period bigger, policy element and market replace effect to all rise continuously to pork price form diversionary, because pig price is right this first half of the year of CPI pull move increase 0.3 percent, predict 2 quarters CPI rebounds to 2.3% around. And swine fever influence makes live pig amount of livestock on hand dropped compared to the same period in Feburary 16.6% , for the history low (see a picture 28) , show impact of this second epidemic situation is bigger, 2019 price of pork of second half of the year or still can have super- expect growth, can drive inflationary centre to appear at the appointed time on move, keep right before inflation looked 2019 low hind tall changeless.

In addition, regard inflation of decision our country as the wage income of fluctuant centre, the country goes out Wu work labour force month all income grows to was added 2018 compared to the same period fast all be worth for 7.23% , although prep above 2017 and relatively 2015-2017 year 7.7% still fall after a rise 0.47 percent; In the meantime, town dweller average per capita can control income accumulative total 2018 compared to the same period 7.8% , relatively 2017 fall after a rise 0.5% (see a picture 29) . Pressure grew to fall in economy first half of the year 2019, wage income level will continue 2018 the callback trend of second half of the year, this also decided 2019 first half of the year of CPI pick up extent suffers be restricted.

The consideration began value added tax to reduce an effect in April 2019, below the premise that can control income to do not have apparent promotion, tax rate of value added tax is reduced should make food tobacco wine, dress, live reach traffic communication divide into equal parts industry price fall squelchs CPI picks up thereby. And from the point of historical data, mixed in May 2018 after reducing tax in July 2017, the effect that basically suffers influence CPI to divide a price to grow compared to the same period is short-term only (see a picture 30) , overall for reduce tax to CPI compared to the same period next pulling effect is not big.

4, nominal economy growth picks up, industrial product is produced to good gold financing bear pressure

1.Demand improvement helps litre of name economy, financial capital systematization bear pressure

2018, suffer finance to go the influence of lever, the capital outside commercial bank watch answers a watch, but bank cherish borrowed behavior to create greater pressure to domestic asset value. Since 2018, hypostatic economy presents what nominal economy growth and investment growth in pairs drop to go situation, among them, domestic GDP name grows by 2017 11.15% fall continuously to the end of 2018 8.85% (see a picture 31) , investment of domestic fixed assets is added fast by 2017 7.2% fall to 5.9% . Here setting falls, theoretic, economic name is added fast glide to be able to pass those who reduce economic principal part to trade respectively with the fall after a rise that invests demand cash demand and investment fund requirement, bring what the improvement of area of domestic capital fund and stock market appraise are worth to pick up. But came 2018 3 quarters, although company current deposits money to grow compared to the same period by 21.42% continuously fall after a rise comes 4.29% , but domestic asset value falls except sex of trend of national debt interest rate outside, the main asset value such as city of domestic stock market, building did not appear to rise apparently. Before 2018 3 quarters, on card aggregate index and index of deep card component part by 3457 average in January 2018 bits, drop at 11388 o'clock to 2723 bits of September, 8279 bits, drop amount to respectively 21.2% , 27.3% , shanghai is deep city of two city static state is filled with rate by January 2018 23.51 times drop to 15.9 times September, in the meantime, index of price of 100 towns house rises compared to the same period by January 2018 7.01% fall continuously to 5.28% , relatively 2017 of 7.15% add fast drop significantly (see a picture 32) . The impact that domestic fund value goes situation and hypostatic economy appears deviate from.

Meanwhile, before 2018 3 quarters, remaining sum of domestic society financing grows compared to the same period by December 2017 13.4% continuously fall after a rise comes September 2018 10.58% (see a picture 33) , but the fall that accompanies social financing growth, loan of financial orgnaization RMB increases advantageous position average interest rate rises significantly, before 2018 3 quarters, loan of financial orgnaization RMB increases advantageous position quarter of average interest rate all is worth amount to 5.96% , relatively by 2017 5.74% rise 22 base point (see a picture 34) , below the setting that rises fall after a rise in social financing, of financing cost rise make clear relative to the financing demand at economic main body, credit supply is more tight. Inspect the reason discovery that causes credit supply tension, before 2018 3 quarters, type of 7 days of impawn between the bank counter-purchases systematization of centre of the interest rate that increase advantageous position to drop, type of 7 days of impawn between the bank counter-purchases the interest rate that increase advantageous position to all be worth by 3.34% 2017, fall to 3.09% , this indicates before 2018 3 quarters, the systole that credit furnishs is not the reason of insecurity of commercial bank capital, however the commercial bank goes in finance the result that lever, hypostatic economy manages pressure to increase the cherish below setting to borrow, it is normal that the cherish of the commercial bank borrows behavior to cause hypostatic economy capital requirement cannot get satisfaction from credit channel, because this raised the usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price to asset, it is the main reason that asset value drops.

Since the four seasons was spent 2018, relax as the in pairs of finance, monetary policy, domestic credit is added fast pick up stage by stage, in the meantime, loan of financial orgnaization RMB increases advantageous position average interest rate grows look forward to in investment of domestic fixed assets firm pick up while appeared relatively apparent fall, show those who accompany policy to loosen, credit end alleviates stage by stage to the pressure of asset value. Since September 2018, investment of domestic fixed assets grows month by month to pick up, to in Feburary 2019, fixed assets invests growth by August 2018 5.3% pick up to 6.1% , each loan remaining sum adds financial orgnaization compared to the same period fast from 2018 the four seasons spends look forward to firm, to December 2018, each loan remaining sum grows financial orgnaization compared to the same period the high point that restores to come nearly two years of 13.5% (see a picture 33) , and the corresponding period, loan of financial orgnaization RMB increases advantageous position average interest rate by 2018 of 3 quarters 5.94% drop to 5.63% (see a picture 34) . Accompany the relaxation of domestic credit, driving refreshment appears since appraise of domestic stock market is worth the beginning of the year, to in March 2019, city of static state of Shanghai late stock market is filled with rate level to rise to 18.25 times, for 2018 the high point since second half of the year (see a picture 32) .

In March 2019, domestic economy boom picks up significantly, annulus of PMI of official manufacturing industry anticipated than exceeding in March rise 1.3% nod high to nearly 6 months of 50.5% , domestic manufacturing industry since December 2018 return dilate interval. Meanwhile, countrywide regional folk is leasehold and integrated interest rate index appears since March relatively apparent rise pressure, cost of interest rate index rises for a time to of 15.67% inside year second high point, this indicates the improvement that accompanies economic growth, requirement of hypostatic economy capital replaces credit to loosen the main influencing factor that makes capital market stage by stage, as get warm again after a cold spell of economy of 2 quarters country, economy of predicting country name grows look forward to firm pick up, consider the refreshment of investment growth further, the limit that brings requirement of hypostatic economy capital from this grows, bring the capital pressure of city of domestic stock market, debt accordingly, accordingly, although growth of 2 quarters economy anticipates to good, but domestic asset value fears will facing systematization pressure.

2.Stock market concussion, bond market goes weak

Be issued in financial asset value by the circumstance of systematization pressure, to stock market, the change of market gain will produce main effect to stock market price. Since the four seasons was spent 2018, the relaxation that accompanies domestic economic policy and bank credit put growth on look forward to firm, although,overall appraise is worth stock market fall after a rise but drop force is striking put delay (see a picture 32) , in the meantime, by 2018, appear on the market A company ROE level rises considerably to 11.39% , relatively rose 2017 0.55% (see a picture 35) , be appeared on the market the influence that company profit improves, stock market goes situation begin sole, maintain low a concussion, but stock market structure suffers gain drive occurrence become divided, it is good to suffer policy to affect larger periodic trade to behave at defense industry. 2019 first quarter, accompany what credit puts in to quicken, overall appraise is worth the stock market the level picks up significantly, shanghai is deep city of two city scroll is filled with rate level by January 2019 13.37 times pick up considerably to 16.37 times March, be worth resumptive drive by appraise, defence board piece with cycle board piece differentiation is convergent, the prices that stock market presents general to go up (see a picture 36) . But since March 2019, as a result of the progressively improvement of domestic demand, shanghai is deep two city town is filled with rate go up situation hasten delay, stock market appraise is worth pressure to be shown somewhat. But at the same time, be improved by domestic demand pull move, look forward to of domestic commodity price is firm pick up, and below the anticipation that improves in demand of 2 quarters home, suffer demand dilate to affect bigger periodic industry gain to will appear improvement, from this element of stock market drive will change gain to drive by appraise value drive stage by stage, stock market industry goes situation or will split up once more, periodic industry predicts will once more strong at defense industry. In the meantime, be worth in stock market appraise overall below descendent setting, overall to the stock market go situation, company profit improvement may prop up the stock market to maintain concussion, increase a pressure that market price case drops possibly also, restore to get considering epicycle company profit demand drive, predict what bring pair of stock prices from this to prop up stronger, stock market 2 quarters or present concussion to go situation.

To national debt market, on one hand, the synchronism that puts in as the dilate of domestic demand and commercial bank credit increases, predicting commercial bank configures those who reduce national debt asset the credit demand with contented and hypostatic economy, and the commercial bank will be right to the undersell of national debt national debt price creates next step-down force, bring national debt yield rise. Since 2019, pick up as what domestic credit grows, national debt yield stops drop firm, to March, home 5 years, 10 years period national debt yield parts relatively rose in January 0.12% , 0, 01% (see a picture 37) . On the other hand, the look forward to of domestic demand is firm the pressure that picks up to rise to domestic inflation generation, national debt yield is faced with accordingly go up pressure. In March 2019 since the last ten-day of a month, 10 years period with 1 year period national debt yield is poor appeared to rebound apparently (see a picture 38) , below the setting that went up on the whole in March in national debt yield, 10 years period with 1 year period national debt yield goes poorly strong to show economic inflation appears the pressure that rise.

3.Industrial product is overall pick up, coloured industry supply and demand slants strong

Since the four seasons was spent 2018, accompany those who invest demand growth to pick up, domestic PPI grows compared to the same period continuously fall after a rise, show supply to carry the pressure of pair of commodity prices. Since this year, those who accompany investment demand growth is farther pick up, although 1-2 month industry produces growth to put delay significantly, but PPI annulus is compared fall close apparently narrow, show supply of industrial product price to carry pressure to be released stage by stage. In March, annulus of PMI of Chinese government manufacturing industry is compared rise 1.3% nod high to nearly 6 months of 50.5% , among them production and annulus of new order index grow considerably than in pairs, in pairs of domestic economy supply and demand is improved, in the meantime, manufacturing industry raw material purchased price index in March by Feburary 51.9% rise to 53.5% , predict the in pairs as domestic supply and demand is improved, industrial product price or pick up continuance.

With overall industrial product volume price goes situation is different, since this year, black metal smelt and pressure delay treatment smelt of course of study, nonferrous metal and press those who delay treatment industry to present Qi Sheng of price giving an amount to go situation, show value of property of black, coloured suffers what demand rises to pull move relatively apparent, industry of this and black, coloured more benefit from benefit from is downstream capital construction, landed invest demand pick up about. Chemical industry since the four seasons was spent 2018, the price goes situation begin to reach industry of black, coloured at PPI infirmly, since this year, although chemical industry yields to pick up significantly, but the price picks up slower, the refreshment that shows value of this round of industrial product basically gets the influence of policy of capital construction steady growth, chemical industry is benefited directly capital construction investment is lesser, demand answers lift to spend not as good as industry of black, coloured, cause a trade total value rises situation slant weak. The beginning of the year of upriver coal industry presents what volume price falls together to go situation, show coal price still suffers the dominant of slow down in demand, this or the time lag that conduct with downstream demand are concerned, yield as the middle reaches industry such as black, coloured of growth pick up, trade demand anticipates coal to also will appear improvement.

Meanwhile, since the four seasons was spent 2018, yield as middle reaches industry growth is quickened, main industry is produced can utilization rate splits up somewhat, among them, coloured industry is produced can growth of utilization rate level is relatively apparent, electroanalysis the history that level of rate of aluminous trade go into operation preserves 90% above since December 2018 is exalted, bear of catenary of chemical industry industry is increased continuously, to in March 2019, PTA industry catenary, PTA factory and polyester factory rate of load condensate rise respectively to 81.92% , 89.53% , approach the high point 2012, but at the same time, steely industry is produced can utilization rate level gives now to fall, start working of main steelworks of whorl steel whole nation leads a level by September 2018 75.08% fall to 61.64% , tang Shan steelworks is produced can utilization rate restores to come continuously since this year 69.22% Feburary 2019, but still under 70.41% September 2018. Visible, below the anticipation that restores in demand, industry of prospective iron and steel is produced can furnish growth space is larger, coloured industry is produced can furnish relatively nervous, from supply end looks, end of coloured industry supply slants to price impact much, tariff anticipates now stronger, steely industry future may face the pressure of supply dilate, tariff anticipates now slant weak.

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