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Civil | Beautiful of Pan Xiangdong, Liu, Zheng Jiawei, Xing Shuguang, Chen Yun is in relief
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On April 12, 2019, the Central Bank is announced the portion was reached in March 2019 financial data shows first quarter, add a RMB newly March to borrow money 1.69 trillion yuan, add 570 billion yuan more compared to the same period; Increment of social financing dimensions was 2.86 trillion yuan March, grow 10.7% compared to the same period, relatively pick up last month 0.6 percent, add 1.26 trillion yuan more compared to the same period; In March end, broad sense money (M2) remaining sum one hundred and eighty-eight thousand nine hundred and forty billion yuan, grow 8.6% compared to the same period, end of the month on increasing ratio and the corresponding period was mixed 0.6 high last year 0.4 percent; Narrow sense money (M1) grows 4.6% compared to the same period, end of the month on increasing ratio is 2.6 high percent; M0 grows 3.1% compared to the same period. Realize cash of clean steam again that month four hundred and fifty-eight billion four hundred and seventy-two million yuan.
Short borrow put in strength to increase, drive credit to exceed greatly anticipate
Short borrow put in strength to increase. Add a RMB newly March to borrow money 1.69 trillion, add 570 billion yuan more compared to the same period, increment basically comes from only month to be mixed at dweller short term loan, business short term loan bill financing, add 429.4 billion yuan newly respectively, 310.1 billion yuan, 97.8 billion yuan, it is credit exceeds expectant main contribution. From the point of historical data, it is to have seasonal element influence, plan of new go into operation is accelerated after the Spring Festival, all through the ages was compared March credit put in Feburary add fast accelerate; 2 it is influence of impulse of Ji Mo commercial bank. Because bill financing covers profit pattern to suffer superintendency effect, the commercial bank superintends a requirement to satisfy, ji Mo increases dweller and business short term loan to put in strength, among them of dweller and enterprise in long term loan did not increase significantly.
Bill financing is added fast put delay. In light of branch door, plan of go into operation of the company after the section is accelerated, loan demand is exuberant, loan of blame banking company increases one thousand and sixty-five billion nine hundred million yuan, among them in the proportion that long term loan takes full loan is achieved 61.67% , specific gravity relatively on the month continues to pick up 3.77 percent; Suffer capital market and estate market get warm again after a cold spell, dweller branch loan adds 890.8 billion yuan newly, among them short term loan 429.4 billion yuan, do not eliminate individual credit fund to violate compasses the tool that enter town or makes real estate add lever. Add bill financing newly to put delay considerably, it is 97.8 billion yuan only, as bill the mode that cover interest suffers superintendency effect, bill financing can last impeach, add bill financing future newly to may glide further, more change is short term loan.
Eliminate is seasonal after element and Spring Festival effect, finance increases to hypostatic economy support. Because credit data existence is seasonal in March,mix Spring Festival effect, eliminate is seasonal after element and Spring Festival element, credit of quarter of put together syncretic puts in a circumstance to look, RMB loan increases 5.8 trillion yuan first quarter, add 946.5 billion yuan more compared to the same period, from put in a structure to look, business loan increases 4.48 trillion yuan first quarter, add 960 billion yuan more compared to the same period, among them, business short term loan increases relatively remarkable, add 451.3 billion yuan more compared to the same period, but in long term loan also adds 340 billion yuan more compared to the same period, indication finance is increasing to hypostatic economy support; Dweller branch loan increases 1.81 trillion yuan first quarter, add 60 billion yuan more compared to the same period, among them, short term loan adds 37.7 billion yuan less compared to the same period, long term loan increases 900 trillion yuan compared to the same period in; Bill financing raises 783.3 billion yuan, add 837.9 billion yuan more compared to the same period, but under 2018 one thousand and twenty-eight billion five hundred million yuan of increment of the corresponding period; Blame silver adds loan newly to drop 487.9 billion yuan.
On the whole, credit puts a preference on short term loan, but finance also is increasing really to the support of hypostatic economy. No matter was March,still be first quarter credit structure makes clear, short term credit of commercial bank support puts in a preference apparent, come from on one hand remain to promote at preference of risk of commercial bank oneself; Anticipate from company point of view financing cost still has future to drop further on the other hand space, short-term preference is short borrow and bill, step up is medium after awaiting financing cost to drop further proportion of long term loan. Advance of policy steadily as wide credence, the commercial bank was increased in be opposite, small small company puts in strength, short-term performance rises for short term loan, as Pu Huijin be in harmony sends force continuously, credit puts in will mix from support bill stage by stage short borrow to in extended credit puts in change, prompt improvement of whole credit structure thereby, satisfy requirement of hypostatic economy financing better. In light of whole, traditional credit increment will pick up significantly 2019, the improvement of credit structure will promote wide credence process, effective fill is not the financing gap that bid financing atrophy produces, promote reform of sex of structure of financial supply side, high quality of better service economy develops.
Debt issues mark of credit, blame and place to aid the be in harmony that turn a company to pick up apparently quickly
Predestined relationship why did company be in harmony start day of amount again March? Company be in harmony was added newly in March 2.86 trillion, grow 1.28 trillion compared to the same period, afterwards starts amount giving a day again after January, far outclass market anticipates, company be in harmony is added fast pick up considerably to 10.7% , continue to maintain pick up posture, first quarter come of increment of company be in harmony 8.18 trillion yuan, than going up year of the corresponding period is much 2.34 trillion yuan. Will look from the structure, it is RMB credit contribution is the largest, below caliber of company be in harmony the RMB added loan newly to achieve 1.96 trillion yuan in March, to the day contribution of the be in harmony that measure a company is achieved 68% , it is to pull the be in harmony that move a company to add fast the main motive force that pick up; Financing of 2 dispute bid gets ameliorative, whole increases 82.4 billion yuan, the contribution to company be in harmony by negative become a full member. Among them, add newly entrust loan to continue to glide, fiducial loan and bank acceptance pick up significantly; Change of the financing that be not mark will become prospective company be in harmony to add fast pick up to add window newly; 3 it is local debt issueing also is the main reason that aids be in harmony of company of the quantity that postpone a day ahead of schedule. According to deploy of whole of Ministry of finance, special debt issued local debt to accelerate plan ahead of schedule 2019, model of guild regulations of special debt hair achieved local government in March 253.2 billion yuan, add up to issues 539.1 billion yuan first quarter, add 462.2 billion yuan more compared to the same period. Credit picks up, debt issues improvement of the financing that be not mark and place to aid the be in harmony that turn a company to exceed significantly quickly anticipate at the market.
The day measures company be in harmony to be able to grow impeach continuously. The commercial bank increases credit to put in financing of strength, bill to pick up, blame mark loosens the reason such as the buy before financing is improved somewhat and local debt is issued because of superintending, bring about market of far outclass of increment of company be in harmony anticipates first quarter, so be in harmony of the company that prop up maintains 2 quarters to be added more quickly fast these elements being had been being changed infirmly stage by stage. The first, the bank is put early borrow early be benefited, credit puts in first quarter often compare big, 2 quarters credit puts in a likelihood seasonal contractive (cannot eliminate completely compared to the same period seasonal) ; The 2nd, of local debt before buy can prop up company be in harmony to add first half of the year fast, but issue an end as second half of the year, local debt hair can drop significantly soon, will be in harmony of company of new be a burden on grows; The 3rd, bid of 2 quarters blame expires scale is larger, after entrusting the passageway business such as loan to expire cannot add is made, inside or regression watch, or expires repay, the contribution to company be in harmony will again by turning negative; The 4th, of bill financing but durative not strong, at present bill financing superintends the mode that cover interest to had gotten the high attention of superintendency layer, dimensions of prospective bill financing will drop further, can turn further for short term credit; The 5th, as superintend strengthen credit of commercial bank of examine and verify to violate compasses enter capital market and estate market, the dweller enters capital market and estate market difficulty to increase through short term loan, to the limit of company be in harmony contribution drops. Accordingly, in light of whole, can last what be in harmony of 2 quarters company holds day of amount impeach.
Wide credit effect is shown, m2 is added fast rise considerably
March end, m2 remaining sum grows 8.6% compared to the same period, add fast relatively on the month picks up 0.6 percent, the market of Wind statistic forecasts prep above to all be worth 8.2% . From the point of credit creation angle, influence M2 is added compared to the same period fast foreign currency of caliber of orgnaization of credit, finance occupies own reserves of paragraph, bank bond and blame mark investment, and finance deposit is fluctuant wait, credit dilate effect was shown gradually in March, process of multinomial credit creation is added to M2 fast rise have contribution.
Credit added 570 billion yuan more compared to the same period in March, pull litre of M2 to be added compared to the same period fast about 0.3 percent. Finance deposit reduces 692.8 billion yuan, decrease 212.6 billion yuan more compared to the same period, pull litre of M2 to be added compared to the same period fast about 0.1 percent. Finance deposit exceeds seasonal decrease a likelihood to suffer local debt to issue more compared to the same period reach influence of government spending rhythm. Deposit of finance of before 2 months increases 324.3 billion yuan, add 852.9 billion yuan more compared to the same period, a very main reason is before issued about 700 billion yuan in all in Feburary, deposit of a lot of finance does not have seasonable defray, the government accelerated defray in March, finance deposit exceeds seasonal decrease, this and PMI exceeded in March seasonal ascendant photograph confirm. Additional, local debt issued 624.5 billion yuan in March, increase 433.5 billion yuan compared to the same period, the circumstance is accelerated to fall in government spending rhythm, also can pull litre of M2 to be added compared to the same period fast. Caliber of company be in harmony was not mark to increase 27.4 billion yuan in March, add 111.7 billion yuan more compared to the same period, although the not all metropolis that be not mark creates M2, but this explains blame mark is loosened somewhat at least, the meeting on whole pulls litre of M2 to be added compared to the same period fast.
Accordingly, look from indebted end, the enterprise deposits money and dweller deposit was added more compared to the same period respectively 7560, 347.6 billion yuan, especially, m1 is added compared to the same period fast pick up to 4.6% , relatively on the month increases 2.6 percent, this means company production to manage more active, also add confirm of fast improvement photograph with be in harmony of credit, company, M2, wide credit effect is already apparent, of course M1 is added fast rise to also suffer estate to sell influence of get warm again after a cold spell.
Be in harmony of day volume company restricts monetary policy comfortable, short-term debt city bear pressure
Although sufferred 1.18 trillion MLF to expire in April, local government bond is issued and the element such as finance pay money is affected, short-term fund gap is bigger, but gross of the fluidity between the bank is in reasonable and abundant, the day measured company be in harmony to explain wide credit effect is being shown stage by stage in March, overlay the Central Bank at the beginning of April makes known his position, to avoid flood flooding, the Central Bank fell in April accurate probability can drop further. As financing environment improvement, the Central Bank passes structural sex monetary policy delivers more fund to in the exert oneself point that small small company makes prospective monetary policy, because the Central Bank may be gone against through beginning this in April,counter-purchase, add makes the way such as MLF, put in capital more at in small small company, higher liquidity is quits between the bank at the same time local government bond is issued and the element such as pay money is affected.
To stock market, what the day measures company be in harmony to conduce to the market that prop up is farther rebound, what be benefited especially is relevant board piece be worth to pay close attention to mainly. To debt city, the day measures company be in harmony to show wide credit effect is being shown stage by stage further, especially the Central Bank falls to anticipate definitely drop, the last ten-day of a month in April suffers MLF to expire, local government bond is issued affect with the element such as finance pay money quickly, fluidity concussion increases, short-term debt city adjusts pressure to not allow small gaze. Will for a long time look, because the day measures company be in harmony but durative impeach, as fall after a rise of follow-up finance data, prospective bond yield is in short-term after picking up or will once more be issued to lower levels, instead the adjustment of market of near future bond is greeted for sequel be configured well and trade sexual opportunity.
END
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