Food drink theres is no lack of as consumptive industry all along of the representing bibcock brand, the firm of one numerous head such as day of Guizhou Maotai, sea, Yi Li was to become more " national brand " , and just go before long inside period of time " consumption demotes " upsurge lets the king of hot pickled mustard tuber nowadays is widely known, a also be to be fond of obtain an ox to enrage towering Bai Ma!
Fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber issued annual report on March 22, battalion closes 1.91 billion, increase compared to the same period 25.9% , net profit 660 million, increase compared to the same period 59.8% , booth thin ROE is achieved 26.8% , afterwards 2016, after successive 2017 fast growth, fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber handed over again beautiful beautiful annals.
The article comments on Fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber from two parts 2018 annals: The first part analysed the management case last year, put forward at 2 o'clock secret worry; The 2nd part is to discuss an author high to managing a layer 19 years end whether the worry of implementation.
Management circumstance is analysed
Above all, can press the growth of past years of Fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber the fractionation that estimate value:
Company annual report is announced, sales volume grew 10.65% last year, so computative promotion contributed ton of price 13.93% . The company at the beginning of 2018 undertook the company pack correcting, 80g of the instead of 88g hot pickled mustard tuber that pack, 175g packs instead 150g, covert raise price 10% the left and right sides. Still have ton of valence promotion of 3-4% , hot pickled mustard tuber of the clear opening hot pickled mustard tuber that is high gross profit, ceremony box outfit is occupied than promotion, product structure is optimized bring about.
Volume price rises together, price of head of green vegetables of overlay raw material keeps low bonus, make wool interest rate promotes 7.5 percent to come considerably compared to the same period 55.8% , net interest rate promotes 8.6 percent compared to the same period to 34.6% , net profit adds Su Yuanchao battalion to close add fast, tongue of sip making a person.
Moreover, also can undertake fractionation to income according to product category:
By on the watch sees, hot pickled mustard tuber is added fast bright look, still be the main source that company battalion restrains growth, pickle, be eaten together with rice or bread is added always occupy than be less than 15% .
Additional, pickle, be eaten together with rice or bread is appetizing of dish add fast also drop somewhat.
Divisional region looks, china north, northeast, Hua Dong, China large area of sale of medium, northwest, Central Plains all realizes 30% above to grow, in covert rapid growth still can achieve below the circumstance that raises price, mix two this years to the reapportion of channel profit with the company comb inseparable. Large area of base camp Hua Na grows 14.3% , occupy than be being reduced 30% , area structure is more balanced. Southwest large area is added fast drop.
Electric business side, income of deadbeat of subsidiary mulberry cropland 28.02 million, grow 51% compared to the same period, hold sales revenue proportion only 1.5% , net profit only 69 thousand, drop compared to the same period 92% , basically be the company increased on-line charge to throw, and income system capacity is lesser bring about. The company represents firm of merchant of cable of mulberry cropland deadbeat, capital in annals east supermarket of cat of store, day all maintained high speed growth, overfulfil annual goal assignment. The individual thinks hot pickled mustard tuber attributes unit price low, weight frequency of light, consumption second the category with tall, long expiration period, suit those who make the medium of communication on the line to extend very much, can consider to make even explode a snacks of recreational hot pickled mustard tuber, eye front volume thing upper part of the body is minor still, expect to send force further.
Charge end, of the company during charge is led only 17.6% , cost of sales, overhead expenses receives growth basically to grow with scale along with battalion, among them cost of sales is led 14.7% , occupy promote than small; And overhead expenses is led only 3.1% , attribute outstanding level, but this space that compresses further is limited. Inside food beverage industry, sea day, Yi Li, double the overhead expenses rate that collect is respectively 4.3% (among them research and development 2.9% ) , 4.3% , 2.5% .
So far, from income, profit, charge end looks nearly perfect, then we are emphasized again read a balance sheet.
1) on company Zhang 50% it is money (monetary fund + other liquid assets) .
2) receivable Zhang money is very little, hold a sale 0.4% , grew 367.2% last year compared to the same period nevertheless, the company still has a bit to loosen the hide that sells policy.
3) goods in stock grows 33.2% compared to the same period, 16-18 year goods in stock occupies sales revenue scale to be respectively 15.4% , 16.3% , 17.2% , look be like ceaseless promotion, but 18 years actually growth is more is raw material (compared to the same period + 47.5% ) , the company is in raw material is low period increased reserve. Inventory goods compared to the same period - 6.1% , the level is expressed in the newspaper of the company and do not have the circumstance of occurrence stock keep long in stock.
4) in build a project to grow 189.2% compared to the same period, in cash flow meter " the cash reserve in a bank that purchases fixed assets, intangible assets and other and long-term capital fund to pay " for 292 million, capital spending is not high.
In build a project main with produce can expand to be concerned with environmental protection, include eyebrow hill project of construction of pool of raw material of hot pickled mustard tuber of 40 thousand stere, Liaoning opens flavour food limited company to produce per year 50 thousand tons of pickle to produce base to build plant of hot pickled mustard tuber of project, Hua Long sewage disposal project. At present company produce and sale is balanced, produce can utilization rate is high, farther dilate also needs extend to produce really can.
5) indebted end, the indebted rate of the company only 17% , occupy among them bigger is due, beforehand gathering is symbolizing this kind the course that speech of stronger industry catenary counterpoises. Deal with kind drop compared to the same period 32.4% , 6.1% what hold business totle drilling cost, without loan.
We should be met feeling the management last year returns this company is perfectly ah, is secret worry in which?
There are one of concerns in happy event: Only cash reserve in a bank of company management sex flows 560 million, compared to the same period only small grow 7% , basically be to sell a money to be like person meaning very much, grow 13.5% compared to the same period, far add under income fast.
Taste an enterprise as quick pass the time in a leisurely way, first the sale mode of the goods after the paragraph, can closing beforehand again, deal with above the money that takes up fluctuation swims, say cash shedding level should be very good normally, exceed net profit to just be opposite. But 18 years of agency of company answer a paragraph to add fast add under income fast, in shipment upright existence compares radical possibility, or before agency a few quarters accumulated certain stock to had been not digested, the pick up the goods that make a money is not active. This is a phenomenon that needs vigilance.
Review change of profit of nearly 5 years of company income, manage mobile cash net flow last time under net profit, be 2014, in those days income increases 7.1% , net profit decreases 6.2% .
There is concern in happy event: Beforehand gathering glides, decrease compared to the same period 34.7% . Generally speaking, year end has the factor of Spring Festival stock up, beforehand gathering is growing, but annual report is not good however, it is probably: 1) the company will be tasted to 7 80g sheet on October 29 raise price 10% , bring about agency 3 quarters make a money ahead of schedule, prevent stock price taller, 3 quarterly reports are announced beforehand gathering increases compared to the same period 88.1% ; 2) the account that goes weak with cash shedding is similar, channel inventory has certain keep long in stock, enthusiasm of agency stock up is scant.
If beforehand gathering is reductive close to battalion, criterion 18 years battalion closes + close to grow 17.7% 17 years compared to the same period beforehand. Attention, this is close come 4 years first battalion closes add fast exceed battalion to close + close beforehand add fast, last time, still was 2014, in those days all the year round share price goes up for - 0.3% , and Shanghai of the corresponding period is deep 300 indexes rise 51.7% .
Managed the misgive of the target 2019 to the company
The company announced end of 19 years of financial budgets in annals: Battalion closes grow 26% to reach 2.41 billion yuan, target of wool interest rate 58% , promote 2 percent further than 18 years. Battalion receives a target to exceed the market to anticipate (anticipate before this add fast in 15-20% ) , reflect the confidence that the company grows to 19 years of income. Although before had announced outstanding achievement wall bulletin, but official annual report comes out, after the high end that sees a company, share price jumped to leave high to go up greatly for nothing that day 5.95% .
Say gross profit is led first, the target of 58% comes true likely however.
Above all rate of cost of sales was reduced unlikelily. The company puts forward clearly 19 years to work mainly is " catch channel innovation, do fully, next counties, category is popularized independently, sale team fission " , once carry out,go down, cost of sales is added fast may exceed battalion to close add fast; Additionally overhead expenses leads reduce a level already special and outstanding, although the space that compresses further has but not big also.
So, the company should achieve the goal that wool interest rate continues to grow, what can count on is to carried valence and cost to drop. The company will been done in October last year raise price; Cost end, on one hand 18 years head of raw material green vegetables is purchased all price falls compared to the same period 20% the left and right sides, raw material is equivalent to sales revenue 14% the left and right sides. According to careless root survey, come to a company 19 years green vegetables head is purchased valence and keep balance basically last year, anticipate raw material price can continue to drop this year, the reserve strength of raw material also was increased in goods in stock. On the other hand the company can change through ability, fall this synergism, implementation gross profit leads promotion.
So, target of wool interest rate is possible implementation, why is that met does 19 years to the company battalion receive a target to support distrustful attitude?
1) product hot pickled mustard tuber maintains brunt to be added high fast difficulty is very great
Above paragraphs already mentioned pickle, be eaten together with rice or bread appetizing dish is occupied smaller, and expression was inferior to hot pickled mustard tuber last year, can't prop up company income to grow considerably. The income that thinks implementation keeps balance almost this year is added fast, basically return so that see hot pickled mustard tuber, and of industry of hot pickled mustard tuber some closer year quantity, price is added fast have only low a digit, the company has achieved the growth of Yuan Chao industry 3 years continuously, income base also is in greaten ceaselessly.
2) various places sale is added fast begin to drop
Although although each area is added fast perfectly, but add fast photograph to drop than appearing basically 17 years, predict this one trend still can continue. And should come true overall the growth of 26% , mean the area austral blame China to still need to grow 30% at least, difficulty is quite great. According to survey of certificate business careless root, 18 years 2 quarters company uses the means shipment of flood flooding, cause channel stock keep long in stock, 34 quarters lie with respect to awkwardness digestive phase, from above paragraphs beforehand gathering analysis is medium clue already saw first. Accordingly, the sale of various places is added this year fast should maintain the Gao Shuiping fact last year to belong to not easy.
3) the possibility that raises price again is very little
The four seasons spent the company to already raised factory price in the light of market of the region austral blame China last year 10% , cover the product of 40% about. This is successive raise price the 3rd year, the probability that raises price 19 years again is very small. Even if raises price, be enraged likely also to agency taxi and profit causes negative effect. On the history carry price range two years to exceed 10% to may have pressure to agency continuously, 2011-2012 year ever glided because of this sales volume 10% .
If sell more in order to raise the means drive agency of terminal price quantitative product, want to consider consumer to accept spent question. Although the company is in Beijing east mark a price 2.3 yuan / 80 grams, but online next business exceed, of consumer buy the price to exceed 3 yuan generally to achieve 3.5 yuan even, carry the sentence of valence again, price will dress to 4 yuan, buy a packet of hot pickled mustard tuber more expensive than bubble surface even, the likelihood accepts this pair of prices hard for sensitive consumer.
So, below the scene that raises price no longer this year, four quarters carried price product income to occupy last year than exceeding 40% , can contribute the growth of 4-5% probably, hypothesis product structure is optimized contribute again 3% , altogether the growth of 8% , want to achieve the growth of 26% , the income growth that still has 1.26/1.08-1=16.7% left and right sides so should rely on sales volume contribution, this sales volume adds fast can to compare the level 2017, and sales volume also grew the company last year 10.7% , had compared 16, fall 17 years fast.
On put together, the individual thinks the company wants to achieve this goal, do not eliminate the possibility that buys.
The company once put forward 2016 " 5-10 year the goal that achieves 10 billion sale " , income of 18 years of companies 1.91 billion, conservative hypothesis reached 10 billion goal 2025, criterion 2019-2025 battalion receives CAGR to need to exceed 26.7% , taller than the target this year, and 2014-2018 year battalion receives CAGR for 20.6% , because of this company besides inside unripe growth, investment is produced can outside, denotative type is bought indispensable also.
2015, company 129 million bought benefit to connect feed cause 100% equity. In March 2018, the company ever tried to buy limited company of Sichuan star food the thick food limited company of 100% equity and Sichuan flavour 100% equity, but prove an abortion, main reason is " on the way that the enterprise of mark is settling a person of same business to compete, cannot all partner reach as associated as its unit consistent, bring about? Appear on the market company? After be being bought, inextricability a person of same business competes problem " . Do not eliminate the company was found this year settle way, or choose arrived more appropriate those who buy mark.
Epilogue
Fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber is a preeminent company, had built powerful competitive dominant position inside course of study, run state 18 years good, financial quality is dovish, but cash flows and beforehand gathering is like person meaning very much, need is advertent.
To 19 years, the difficulty that the individual thinks not to rely on extension to buy the end that finish is greater. Hypothesis sales volume is added fast with kept balance 2018, grow 10% compared to the same period, ton valence promotes 7% , rate of cost of sales is minor promotion is made an appointment with 1% , the target that wool interest rate presses layer of manage of in charge of 58% computation, increase income 18% this year, net profit grows 20% to control.
Fulfil investment nevertheless, to such good company, when when often anticipating not as good as, be worth to consider closely to enter even alertly however instead. And, the adjustment that Fu hill hot pickled mustard tuber sees on the history ability all along special strong, sales volume glides not to exceed a year normally.
If the company can pass channel to sink, agency system is straightened further, the method such as product to the limit of one's capacity achieves a goal, believe everybody also is happy to see, the competition ability that shows a company at least had farther promotion again.
If the ox turns round to be not old, perhaps be tired only, lower his head to drink the travel before still be being met after water!
(above viewpoint and a basis of nonfeasance buying and selling, risk conceit, the stock market has venture capital investment to want discretion)
