Short-term in light of, of Chinese economy data to good, especially of PPI data go strong to will undertake conductive to Euramerican market, this meeting defers the market to beautiful couplet store begin to lower interest the anticipation of monetary policy, form pressure to golden price at the same time. Nevertheless, if European economy also begins indebted at Chinese economy pick up, euro add dollar goes gold of help merchandise on hand high again.
Data of economy of region of even if euro is certain without look forward to, market early days is already mature, and rich weichied is comfortable. This means euro to will go tall afresh, and of dollar index drop the main internal cause that will become gold to rise in price.
Meanwhile, if beautiful couplet store still can maintain loose monetary policy, mean gold of merchandise on hand will very relaxed rise arrives 1300 dollars / ounce upper part. Nevertheless, the abidance as market risk preference get warm again after a cold spell, VIX index (stability bandwidth index) continuously fall after a rise, of the US stock walk along tall meeting to continue billabong capital to avoiding the configuration of risk capital.
In light of metaphase, the commodity of gold or the switch that are monetary property, make gold makes the market most the breed that controls hard. Below the influence of globalization, the price of gold goes situation be enslaved to be enslaved to the influence of each respect element, go situation also begin more kink. China to good data, undoubted meeting promotes the risk of the market the preference, and inflation anticipates, as the market to beautiful couplet store add breath expectant correction, golden price goes situation can get pressure. In the meantime, if 10 countries of G10(group) economy also can look forward to is firm, of the dollar go low to will still be formed to golden price prop up.
Performance of American economy data is better, worry about mood fall after a rise to American economy
The United States that this week announces imported rate of price index month to be recorded so that prep above anticipates in March, with before the value keeps balance; Rate of month of wholesale in Feburary sale accords with the United States the market anticipates, predicting inventory is accumulated or will conduce to GDP grows first quarter; Trade deficit also got the United States be improved considerably in Feburary, start nearly 8 months new low. It is better that rate of month of retail in March sale also behaves the United States, invited unemployed gold number when Zhou Chu on April 13 under anticipate before this, show market of American obtain employment fills latent capacity as before.
Driving American economy data reduced beautiful couplet store lower interest anticipate and the market is right of American economy anxious. From this week somewhat the expression of yield of American national debt of get warm again after a cold spell sees, the market anticipates pelter to American economic depression, achieve the top level since FOMC changed out to columbine group policy on March 20. The evidence that data of American country economy did not appear to worsen badly, bring about national debt yield to be answered in time lukewarm. What the market anticipates to American economic depression is abate, your market avoids danger mood drops in temperature once more, the dollar continues strong, make thereby golden price bear pressure bigger.
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Trade situation gets ameliorative, the whole world avoids danger mood fall after a rise
This week United States announces trade deficit collection got 49.4 billion dollar in Feburary, start nearly 8 months new low; Rate of commercial stock month was the United States in Feburary 0.3% , under expect a level, inventory pressure decreases show American trade situation is being improved, will use to display vigour is being carried since GDP. Add, european Union of it is reported or will launch commerce negotiation with the United States, concern in order to alleviate with the insecurity of American commerce. Sino-US trade peace talks had follow after new progress, the anticipation that Euramerican commerce negotiation spreads out, abate the market is tight to the whole world of business relation be anxious, accordingly, the market avoids danger mood is farther fall after a rise.
Multilateral economy data glides continuously, global economy secret worry still is put
The data of euro region economy that Zhou Si publishs as before fatigued and weak, multilateral PMI data under anticipate. Initial value of PMI of German manufacturing industry is recorded 44.5, anticipate under the market, data of French manufacturing industry is behaved likewise fatigued and weak, initial value of integrated in April PMI also expects euro division not as good as, the tendency of be issued to lower levels that causes the outside to worry about euro region economy will be farther aggravate. Avoid danger mood picks up, rescued all the way the bullion of be issued to lower levels. Although European economy data is fatigued and weak,can have the certain effect that prop up to bullion, but same, performance of American economy data is relative better, make the market pays close attention to a dollar more, make thereby bullion bear pressure. Accordingly, want American economy to keep opposite only stronger, criterion bullion has better performance very hard.
Broken bits hits Suki Cooper of analyst of bank precious metal to express, the expression of gold does not calculate too bad, city still values golden price to pick up after. Will touch in August from last year low up to now, gold market has many picking up actually, and maintain be inside particular concussion area. From in the past go in light of situation, gold of merchandise on hand can be inside concussion area dish full period of time, begin later tall, probable it is 6 months later.
Broken bits is hit predict this quarterly gold all valence 1285 dollars / ounce, four quarters can go up to 1325 dollars / ounce, be gone what interest rate goes low weak to hit by the dollar pressure. And macroscopical environment remains interest of good gold, it is dollar performance is applied only press gold. To 2020, gold interest much factor can increase further, golden price goes up look to 1375 dollars / ounce level. Nevertheless on the other hand, short-term gold market may continue bear pressure.
The Anthony Grisanti of NYMEX thinks, the price of gold returns 1300 dollars very hard / ounce col, unless the dollar is transferred instead,lose. The Scott Nations of CME expresses, can do empty gold to come 1240 dollars / ounce level.
Sweet clew: Particular operation pays close attention to gold to cast net APP please, market ten thousand changes in the twinkling of an eye, investment wants discretion, operation strategy offers reference only.
