Since this year, domestic estate market is like have during anabiosising, the heat city that heads with a gleam of greeted " of long-unseen " Indian summer, clinch a deal quantity relatively the corresponding period all presented a raise on not little scope last year, the market also appeared accordingly a kind: Is this year the inning that buys a house?
This problem to having room and two results that can not produce to differ completely for the person of the room, to former and character, after enjoying estate market to bring huge extra dividend, buy right now it is so important to be not with the choice that does not buy, if domestic building city comes again so round of big ox, so no more than earns the problem that earns less more namely.
But this problem to having a room person honest too too brutal. In the past in 20 years of time, the person that do not have a room is to be in from beginning to end go against situation and row, good wait not easily came so round of adjusting control, if move to buy a house at this moment, if the market new turn head is down, it is to making him face undoubtedly, but if is adjusted this had reached the designated position, building city has been stabilized really build a base, that... do not have a house more do not bear.
Also differring because of footing, the answer of this problem can be handed in only will solve by each data, since buy with be not being bought is a kind of choice, the author still still is inferior to letting market itself make to your answer it is better to solve;
Appear on the market according to 23 when wild village arranges the data of estate company, sale of new house of Chinese big city grew 26% compared to the same period March, although was mixed in January,estate sold atrophy Feburary, but March this one circumstance abruptly changeover.
Economy stimulates measure to appear to producing effect. Last year the end of the year, superintendency layer relaxed the limitative regulation that sends debt to estate company, and local government ends from which acquired the older own right in the light of real-estate industry, pursueing a series of estate relevant policy, the market is what this says one city of " one plan " .
Believe credit side face, in light of the financial data that publishs according to the Central Bank, increase RMB credit newly in March 1.69 trillion, the market anticipates 1.25 trillion, be worth before 880 billion; Increment of social financing forehead 2.86 trillion, the market anticipates 1.85 trillion, be worth before 700 billion; M2 is added compared to the same period fast 8.6% , the market anticipates 8.2% , be worth before 8% ; M1 is added compared to the same period fast 4.6% , the market anticipates 3% , be worth before 2% .
Add a RMB newly in March to borrow money to achieve 1.69 trillion yuan, exceed the market to anticipate 440 billion. Although on gross not as good as that kind is exaggerative in January, but on the structure delicate more meaningful. And there is a very special presence all the time in credit, in calling a dweller, grow borrow, actually namely the room is borrowed, achieve 470 billion. Notable is, this is come 5 years, highest March peak value.
Above sea area is exemple, loan of RMB individual housing increases 25.8 billion yuan first quarter, add 11.5 billion yuan more compared to the same period, much amplitude is spent about 80.4% .
Probably someone can say this is because of "325" the advent of period of lift a ban ("325 is new 2016 politics " asks to be not Shanghai census register 5 years social security, blame is common residential head pays 7 into) , the market predicts this will be brought about be close to the person buy a house of 300 thousand to swarm into Shanghai building city, become a market strength that cannot ignore.
Undeniable, this is a when can produce qualitative change to the market main factor really, but and extraessential, what is main, it is the thing of those macroscopical levels, shanghai is an epitome only.
Alleged and macroscopical, it is general orientation namely.
In credit market, where of money flow direction is the most important.
Before this, gregarious media has a nearsightedness frequency " that brushs screen " of change of flow direction of 4 big loan, appeared to be controlled 10 years recently through nearsightedness frequency, trends, labour, farming, the medium, loan that proposes 4 big flows to metabolic circumstance.
Did not put here, a when say inside the biggest change depends on, go ten years in time, 4 big put credit side Xiang Congyuan this attach most importance to a heart to be transferred finally with manufacturing industry reached building city, reached from this below this piece of appalling statistic result;
Came more than 10 years in the past, 4 big flow into individual housing to borrow money + real estate =687443 100 million + nineteen thousand one hundred and twenty billion four hundred million =878647 100 million, and manufacturing industry has forty-nine thousand three hundred and forty-two billion nine hundred million only,
The title that an article used " to spend " of 100 beautiful incomplete comes to those who describe Chinese real-estate industry absorb golden effect, hit the nail on the head just about.
So, afore-mentioned was such circumstance changed below the setting with building city constant 2018 adjusting control?
Do not have.
Grow in intensity instead.
View the data discovery of building city statistic according to big Wei, 8 big (mail is built to enrol riverside to hand in in workers and peasants) loan gross was added newly to be 2.7 trillion yuan about 2018, among them 47% it is the room is borrowed, change character, the room borrows data to occupy 8 big banks to add the close in part of loan data newly.
Want to know, last year building city can be the adjusting control with the most strict throughout history that be called year, count of body having intermediary passes, each district government was released early or late 2018 amount to 444 times, refresh history adjusting control is recorded, make a particular year with the most concentrated policy of adjusting control of the estate on the history.
But even if is such, the room borrows the market still like a raging fire.
More important is, afore-mentioned form just borrowed the room this big head be listed alone come out, if be put plus the bank,lend estate company, so this one word may be more breathtaking.
Write here, a lot of people affirm disturbed and indignantdisturbed and indignant, but say 1000 10 thousand, scolding is to scold do not come of the house.
That problem that returns article begin -- is this year the inning that buys a house?
My answer is: Without the house, it is inning each years.
