Article ｜ rings greatly, author ｜ Cai Baowang
Why a lot of continuously can the company that cannot deficit see for a long time even gain hopes still obtain very high estimate to be worth?
This is " deep noise is shallow talk " the 002nd article of series. In this series, we try to use the language that knows professionally, objectively, easily the explanation is ferial li of obscure problem related domain of commercial finance and economics. Expect reader friends can feedback actively demand, we grow jointly.
Before before long, the net made an appointment with car tycoon Uber to release book of raise capital by floating shares, basis " wall street daily " report, cast soon its price interval is set between every 48-55 dollar, fix a price according to above, value of this second IPO appraise will be in Uber left and right sides of 100 billion dollar;
This week, establish the lucky favour coffee that time does not go to 2 years, finished B+ annulus financing, acquired the new investment of 150 million dollar, among them one of the United States' biggest investment management groups Beilaide (BlackRock, weigh Hei Yan again) investment 125 million, value of the appraise after casting reachs 2.9 billion dollar.
No matter be to deliver the appraise value that gives out to Uber IPO all right, still be fund of illicit collect equity (PE) the appraise value that gives out to lucky favour, their two overmeasure value has to be nodded jointly rear -- be in deficit condition. Uber is in its risk of book of raise capital by floating shares is announced more paragraphic in keep a company likelihood forever cannot gain.
" deep noise " be opposite in associate with a lot of appear on the market the discovery in the report of company, Pre-IPO company, poineering company, the company of gain of side of a lot of Zhang, level of integral appraise worth is average, it is very much instead continuously the company that deficit cannot see for a long time even gain hopes, cast travel and PE/VC to waited to give out however very high appraise cost.
What kind of appraise be after all does cost method, theoretical foundation make these professional finance orgnaizations right does different company give out different view?
" deep noise " the attempt uses easy to read and understand language, analysis of method of cost of the theoretical foundation that is worth through analysing appraise, appraise, case and scene of real sports ground, uncover secret the complex tool application in trading actually.
" why to need appraise to be worth "Internet is a magical field that can create miracle, production image, go all out great establish 3 years to log onto an US stock to appear on the market namely, market prise is close to for a time and overtake Beijing east; And interesting head from hold water two years to be finished namely appear on the market; Unlisted alone horny animal industry is row upon row of more.
A feature with these global businesses is, appraise cost is very high, the company is before IPO deficit or position of balance of profit and loss still are in after IPO even. And the company that watchs a lot of other industries instead, early period has realized gain, but cost of company whole appraise is high without Internet company however. What is the reason of this backside?
The answer that a lot of people give out is Internet company has perspective more, have imaginary space more. But after all can these foreground and imaginary space hold company estimate to be worth how old scale? Whether does the backside that estimate of a company is worth have mature appraise to be worth a system, will coach financial elite people make judgement to of all kinds company?
Graph: Uber reachs his to hold a company to be in different country and region market share
Spreading out before discussing, the applied setting that we need to be worth from appraise first speaks of.
Be like in front mention, uber will appear on the market the most quickly at will be being finished this year in May, a reasonable share price is established for the company before wall street casts a need to appear on the market in the company.
On one hand, share price cannot be decided too high, if if Yuan Chao gives investor,because of share price company money newspaper is behaved, the stock is sold very hard;
On the other hand, if company share price is decided too lowly, overall collect capital will decrease, damage company profit. Investment bank is worth a model through appraise reasonable to IPO enterprise price, to company and be of exceptional importance of investment average per capita.
And in sending a real work, buy in the company (M&A) , change demesne trade and when financing branch offers financing to support for the enterprise, also can use company estimate value.
To pursueing illicit collect fund (PE) for the person, to the appraise of the company value ability still is attached most importance to especially should. The poineering company that all sorts of trades pursue in the market at present is various, invest what the orgnaization is in the company to mark to select and to trading in the assessment of value, can regular use appraise is worth a model.
The appraise value of jumpy, 2.9 billion dollar invests the byte of appraise value investment that PE company ever used 75 billion dollar lucky favour coffee, be worth after all not worth, still want to depend on company estimate to be worth a model to whether hold water greatly.
" specific appraise value means and application "In actual unit process of cargo bandling, is casting travel and PE what to what method undertakes to the company appraise is worth pass?
Usually, to company estimate the value basically has two train of thought, the first kind is standard of absolutely appraise value, namely according to the company forecast operation circumstance to estimate company value, basically cover prospective cash to flow fold show a model (Discount Cash Flow, DCF) , lever buys a model (Leverage Buyout, LBO) , branch adds total model (Sum Of The Part, SOTP) wait for a method.
And another kind is standard of opposite appraise value, common says to be able to compare company method (Comps) , basically cover city to be filled with rate (PE) , city is sold rate (PB) , the method such as EV/EBITDA multiple.
Absolutely appraise is worth a law to be told simply, it is a basis the company's current and real financial standing, and reasonable prospective growth anticipates, through going to the financial data apply mechanically of the company in specific appraise value model, computation gives the company's current value.
In real work, use most extensive is DCF model. DCF model is company future cash shedding of each years undertakes folding showing, will fold the cash inpour after showing to add must to give company value all right again.
The fundamental of this method is, the value of the company is to originate lasting cash can be gotten flow in future, but prospective cash flows to have uncertainty again, so we will not come to what all cash flow to shed uncertainty with can acquiring this cash reserve in a bank to fold lead now undertake folding showing, with the value that this comes to computational company.
For instance luck Is hope coffee, although the company still is in deficit at present, but because its are in the state that runs continuously, company oneself can create abundant management ready money to flow, accompanying the mushroom of amount of company set up shop, its did not manage cash shedding to present geometrical multiple to rise. Because appraise of this company whole is worth,promote continuously.
This also is why we often see, some companies development is bigger, deficit is more, but deficit is more, appraise is worth taller however reason. The free cash that basically is the reference in be worth a process because of appraise flows in forecast period inside rise considerably.
And in using DCF model, another very important parameter is to fold lead now. Why do we need to have prospective ready money folding showing? Here involves a simple concept, it is a money have time value.
Graph: The appraise after lucky favour coffee is cast at present is worth 2.9 billion dollar
Cite a case:
If I had 2 Qian Liu to join a company 2019 now, 6 Qian Liu joined a company 2020, 8 Qian Liu joined a company 2021. So is the asset value that I obtain " 2+6+8=16 " ?
The answer is negative.
According to common sense we can understand, the 2 money affirmation in my purse may enter 2 money in my purse to want than future today more costly. The cash that future flows into has uncertainty, I am unwarrantable there were 6 moneys certainly 2020, there were 8 moneys certainly 2021, and although these money entered a company, 6 of future, 8 also are to compare 6 of today's, 8 devalue, accordingly we are being calculated today value when need to hit fold.
If be folded suppose,be being led now is the word of 20% , so I am actual these asset are in today's value is actually:
2+6/ (1+20% ) + 8/ (1+20% ) ^2=2+5+5.6=12.6,
Totaller than what flow into actually amount wants 16 yuan little.
Of course, in casting travel or PE to work actually, the case that use DCF has appraise value wants to introduce than us to the enterprise is a lot of more complex.
What use when computational cash flows is free cash stream (manage mobile cash to flow namely - the capital sex such as fixed assets, intangible assets defray) , the purpose is the effect that eliminate capital expenditure spreads to cash, run company estimate cost as actually as its the state direct link up with;
Additional, the influence that still needs to consider to whether be put in lever (whether to have the debt that raise debt namely) ; And its are folded correspondingly show rate criterion to be cost of the capital that increase advantageous position (WACC) , through CAPM model computation includes the average capital cost of debt and equity.
Undertaking a series of adding lever goes after the process of lever, computation gives company estimate to be worth. The relevant element that involves in the model, can wait for the relevant data that finds company of estate of person of the same trade through Factset of financial data terminal, Bloomberg commonly.
And like LBO, SOTP these direct estimate are worth a model, the setting that applies in real work is opposite less.
LBO model can be bought in the enterprise commonly, and change demesne trade the application in the process.
Its principle is -- a certain main body is in when buying company A, buy fund besides having ready money oneself, can raise money to a certain quantity of bank borrows money or issue bond, namely lever of have the aid of will finish buy trade. Trade the income that A of company of the repass after finishing produces will repay buy the accrual that loan raises money in trading and capital. Below the situation that uses lesser dimensions own reserves, use lever to finish more large-scale buy trade, reduce own reserves at the same time take up, the in-house yield with higher implementation (IRR) .
Will simply tell, the issue that LBO model wants to solve is to use limited own reserves, external debt financing goes to repass undertake buying. In buy mark while, meeting set trades this in the near future the yield that need achieves.
If buy the prospective profit that the company generates, repaying after external debt and eliminate capital cost, can achieve the yield of set, be worth to buy namely; If short of, this is bought should not undertake.
And SOTP model is to apply in the value of group company estimate with multivariate business. " ring greatly " in " heavy appraise Netease " in one article, once introduced SOTP appraise to be worth methodological application in detail.
Libaba resembling A, Tecent, Netease these large Internet companies, its core business can have a lot of sides. For instance Alibaba, its advocate business Wu includes service of electric business, cloud, media and entertainment (actor cruel, UC) etc, cannot undertake its whole appraise is worth. Because this casts an analyst to meet, its separate estimate is worth each partial business, undertake adding always reaching group whole appraise is worth finally.
Be worth law correspondence with absolutely appraise, relative to appraise the common that be worth a law says to be able to compare company method (Comps) , basically include city to be filled with rate (PE) , city is led completely (PB) , the method such as EV/EBITDA multiple. And the company to a few special industries, also can use EV/ installed capacity (power industry) , EV/ reserves (oil industry) , and EV/MAU, EV/DAU (TMT industry) wait for index to undertake appraise is worth.
Opposite appraise is worth the logic of the law, advocate if be based on,fall in some circumstances, the enterprise is worth a law through direct estimate, cannot mirror the company's real appraise truely to be worth a level, because this meets those who choose the likeness inside a few industries to be able to compare a company, undertake to oneself appraise is worth.
For example, beijing east still be in deficit condition when IPO appears on the market, as a result of its at the same time oneself is course of study of electric trading company, its freedom cash flows at that time and future anticipates inside, can not present very driving growth, if use the direct estimate such as DCF to be worth a method, the share price when its appear on the market will be very low, show the company's real value without the body.
Accordingly, beijing east in IPO process, those who use is city annul rate (P/GMV) opposite appraise is worth a law, the city at that time sells referenced Yamaxun rate and GMV level undertake fixing a price.
And we see the Uber that is about to appear on the market recently, its appraise is worth same meeting reference to be able to compare the situation of the company.
Uber in American market the directest competitor Lyft landed capital market on March 29. Look according to current scale, uber is in 2018 income 11.3 billion dollar, lyft is 2.2 billion dollar, uber is Lyft about 5 times much; And active passenger counts monthly on, uber9100 10 thousand, lyft is 18.6 million, uber is 4.9 times of Lyft about. With at present Lyft is close to the market prise of 17 billion, outside dividing taxi professional work considering Uber again, outside still having, sell, the business such as car of slide of bicycle of freight, report, report, its can exceed 100 billion dollar more likely than appraise value.
Actually orgnaization of professional to each finance, when undertaking to the company appraise is worth, also not be to should be calculated a very exact number, it is to should be calculated below more circumstance an interval limits, and analyse through sensitivity (Scenario Analysis) the result difference that will present different hypothesis circumstance to fall.
Cast travel or PE orgnaization, the estimate that through above computation gives is worth limits, will support its and buy trade the way before stock of the negotiation of price clause, IPO is issued develops, and the negotiation process that fixes a price with the company that invests mark. (we found some foreign capital to invest a bank to be worth to the appraise of an enterprise from SEC website present means)
Complex financial model is final it is to see clear company, finish trade. Find business of a company to develop true drive factor, union is in the business index characteristic that industry company appears, also be the one part with appraise very important value.
Thank those who have old audit experience to cast travel personage Nathan Wang to hold the position of adviser of deep noisy exclusive content, and foreign capital casts travel personage Edward Ma to be offerred for us continuously and the major of finance and economics of deepness supports.
