From the United States, Japan, southeast Asia the lesson speaks of, is estate bubble undone?

Mention tall house price, a lot of people say us very like Japan. Implication, we the follow with undone bubble of pace Japan estate. However elder brother not so think.

We understand today had produced the country with estate market undone bubble and area in recent years, at that time is what kind of circumstance, make a contrast with our country's current condition again, see a result together.

Say the United States first, 6 years financial crisis that borrowed the crisis to bring about the United States, affect Europe thereby, even whole world!

This, estate market bubble of the United States is undone, the mainest reason is the policy that American government promoted the person that make reside to have its house, the government does not have the job, person that also does not have house property without fixed income to those (be called by play in the United States 3 without the crowd) , provide the loan policy support of convenient low even interest rate.

A kind of such governments the policy to be apt to, cause bubble of whole estate market finally undone, cause finance and economic crisis then.

Market of estate of comparative our country, no matter you are in which place to buy a house, no matter your economic fund condition is what kind of, current a payment of flatlet scale wants 30% taller even. From this angle for, risk of market of our country estate should accuse.

See Japan again. Japan is closer from China, economic system amount is larger also. Estate market bubble of Japan is undone happen in on the 90 time of the century, before this Japan also has been experienced be as long as 2, the high speed of economy of 30 years grows, is there many tall? Namely 5% the left and right sides. Unlike goes 2, 30 years, the economic growth rate of our country can be achieved 9% , 10% .

Before estate market bubble is undone 1985, japan and United States signed " square agreement " , should have 5% every year according to what dollar of add of this agreement yen agrees up drift. Actual condition, the dollar of add of yen of 3 years of time after signing an agreement appreciated 87% .

Everybody understands what agreed yen add dollar did not come above agreement of this one paper to appreciate, this is determinism. Money market formed a determinism to cover profit opportunity, a large number of capital enter Japan, distend the bubble of the stock market and estate market.

Japanese Central Bank should realize a risk, the kind that begins to adopt slam the brakes on from 1987 will control a venture, implemented extremely stringent financial systole policy.

1986, financial orgnaization of Japan grew 30% before one year to arrive compared to the same period to the loan of real-estate industry 40% ; But added compared to the same period 1987 fast had fallen 6% , 8% . 1991, all finance orgnaization of Japan stopped the loan to real-estate industry.

Whole market changes quickly, the bubble that caused the stock market is undone wait for a series of risks to happen. The bubble of estate market of Japan was defeated by thorn.

Should say, of Japan this kind from exceeding and comfortable arrive exceeding the monetary policy that tighten up, it is to cause estate market bubble to go up big, prick then broken most prime cause.

Consult our country government is mixed to the basis of respect of macroscopical adjusting control experience, the probability that this kind of circumstance produces in our country is not big.

See southeast Asia again. System of southeast Asia economy is in on 90 time end produced the century not small banking crisis. Estate had the effect of important add fuel to the fire in this crisis. The reason with this the mainest crisis with undone bubble of market of southeast Asia estate is, country of whole southeast Asia has been experienced 80, the high speed at the beginning of 90 time grows.

We had heard of like these stories of 4 Xiaolong, 4 small tigers, so economic height grows self-confidence, add in the world the height of competition ability is self-confident, what 4 small dragon executed national currency and dollar is direct indirect perhaps fixed interest rate, gaze at dollar!

Just is after 90 time, american economy is special boom, and southeast Asia economy begins decline. And the solid interest rate that implement did not change.

Say simply, the money that this means southeast Asia is long-term by overmeasure, and the government still holds to gaze at dollar, put in to cover benefit space. A large number of moneys from southeast Asia country this money converts a dollar, southeast Asia market withdraws later. Withdraw as capital, this money devalues, caused estate crisis thereby.

See China again, although say our monetary circulation growth is very fast. But will for a long time look, the value of main to dollar add international money still stabilizes the RMB quite, the most important is China those who execute is the floating rate policy that has government. This is meant in China you have money, want to take money go abroad, in capital project it is unallowed, this kind of circumstance avoided many capital outflow with respect to utmost.

In outflow of foreign currency capital by control, of the real-estate industry of our country head pay scale is compared generally tall, the chip in hand of authorities of macroscopical adjusting control is more at the same time, adjusting control experience still calculates rich circumstance to fall, consult in light of the experience with undone bubble of estate of these a few places, short-term inside China is these mistakes that won't make. That is to say, chinese estate market is short-term the extreme circumstance with unapt occurrence undone bubble.