I have the two investment philosophy in alluding to invested in the past, how to choose on correct circuit namely think: White horse share price is worth investment: Without ideal world; Share price of a dark horse is worth investment: Unreasonable with regression. Case is applied mediumly to be reflected respectively in prices of on one round of liquor in Guizhou Maotai and Shanxi a kind of spirit distilled in Fenyang. A dark horse in this one prices can be too extremely group (SH600129) . Fine number dogged 2018 now already a year of superabundant time, propped up Chinese stock market 10 years to take arrogant prime factor in the past, it is the miracle of Chinese economy without doubt, incorporate is in stock market industry board piece be 3 large trades take a cattle: Estate, car and electron. Those who pull the past 10 years is decuple can see these stocks follow countless ties of 3 big industries. The intensive that develops as Chinese economy change, the estate allocation in national income appears than regular meeting add fast put delay; Mobile Internet is permeated put delay, only then also appear at consumptive electron tide of the apple backwater; The car retains the capacity appears to grow negatively. It is under this kind of general trends, of philosophy of these two kinds of investment apply become crucial, prospective profit comes from truly can the high-end industry of assault fortified positions and You Yuqian Shui Jiaolong; Latter can be obtained more above quota accrual. Condition of worldly avery kind of is the balanced result of all sorts of force, it is the balance active force that says on physics, unreasonable position is the result of all sorts of force likewise, appear only new power breaks a balance, real present price is worth regression.
New power appears
From November 1997 too extremely company of group single home appears on the market close at 4.6 yuan every, to too extremely cabinet of gentleman of group, tung and southwest drug industry incorporate 3 times one comes too extremely group, closed at 11.35 in April 2019, last a period of time 23 years, do not have any accrual to investor, if be the industry that promotes at an efficiency, won't have what doubt, can be found everywhere after all. But have 1500 to approve to civil, the Chinese traditional medicine of 50 many exclusive breed enterprise, this kind unreasonable fab, look in me too extremely the force that the group balances has been broken by two things:
One, since appearing on the market 23 years, because there is 3 medicines enterprise to be in below the group A appear on the market, competition of a person of same business allows a company again financing suffocate suffocate, leaf through financing of company calendar year to look, had had 1999 only match, sever connection 20 years with capital market almost ever since, this kind of isolation let a company lose the power of redound investor, public marketplace is landed afresh after 3 incorporate, the company had the power that presses act of capital market established practice;
2, from object that adds surely in light of, it is the friendly business of plain change area and client for the most part, should add surely when giving market hardship 2018 2 billion, not be easy thing, friendship is impossible condition necessarily, add the price to come high surely 15.36, after one pass only the friend that the price of 11.35 does not have a law to give provide timely help really is explained, company management layer has the demand on share price.
Domestic great cause is big
It is the enterprise of an income of one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight level extremely too, medical industry sale is achieved 6 billion, this number if investor is transverse and a lot of more comparative medical look forward to, for instance constant luck medicine (SH600276)170 100 million, what to calculate, but this kind of contrast is unscientific. The two big channel that current medicines and chemical reagents sells: Hospital and OTC, 50% the cost of sales that enters a hospital is sales revenue about, and of drugstore OTC product cost of sales is in about 15% , so former there is the part that opens high on hospital channel, the quality of sales revenue is inferior to latter. Too extremely regard OTC as field leading company, should be the job of river Chinese traditional medicine that OTC takes the main aspect to mark (100 million income of SH600750)18, can see so too extremely the dimensions in this domain.
Examine OTC kinds of each are big pop chart, before seeing not hard 3 armour have for the most part too extremely the product is seleted, fluid of fluid of profess to convinced of fluid of healthy atmosphere of wrinkled giant hyssop, urgent a syrup, nose sinusitis, profess to convinced of exceeding lofty or great it is exclusive breed more. From its product strategy looks: Fluid of healthy atmosphere of wrinkled giant hyssop approves production of two medicine look forward to originally, too extremely exclusive product becomes after be being bought outright through paying fee, raise syrup urgently to have originally additional medical look forward to, zhejiang east pharmacy has batch of article, hind by too extremely exclusive breed turns into after buying, the strategic ability that runs a layer is beyond question actually. In light of the product sale that announces according to having annual report, its product actual strength is really breathtaking:
Drugstore asset is the asset that cannot ignore extremely too likewise, from 2017-2018 year in light of retail drugstore pop chart, too whole nation of dimensions of extremely all drugstore the 5th, straight battalion is probably it is big 1/4 of ginseng forest, should know big ginseng forest current market prise is 200 much. Have 2000 self-supporting chemist's shop extremely too, among them more than 200 are to have storefront oneself, many 8000 join in drugstore, integral drugstore is in deficit, the inaccuracy with the biggest chemist's shop is in surely storefront hire, that has after all many times 200 oneself is gain, many 8000 join in calculate an administration fee of 10 thousand to also have 8000 much.
Bad in the financial data that has had
Because company structure is complex, the blame such as high indebted rate, investment is regular professional work is more, when analysing profit to express our get rid of besides all blame regular business, so interest expense, yield, the income outside doing business all is absent row, consider retail trade of level of industry of its oneself medicine only Wu is substaintial, as to annual the interest expense of nearly 300 million, I had been analysed in balance sheet analysis, the interest rate be issued to lower levels that capital gains be issued to lower levels brings is the big trend of prospective China, this is right tall indebted but the enterprise of free debt risk is long-term interest good, need not fear this is nodded so. From the point of situation of company profit watch, cause company profit low basically is wool interest rate and cost of sales:
Company most the business medicine industry of core, integral gross profit leads extraordinary stability, according to this year visit, too extremely each product had had whole price strategy when leave factory, cost addition, decision price, look at this o'clock the interior management of the company is very orderly actually, although appearance looks extremely confused, but the organization of whole production and sale comes up constitutionally say first-rate, everybody knows industrial production and cost accounting are the process of a special system actually, doing not have essence of life to refine management and business accounting is to guarantee gross profit hard, will at this o'clock look too extremely level of management is not poor. And commercial gross profit is fluctuant and opposite for it is an easier management and administrative process however, so my judgement is to manage a layer to love this company very much, did not let him look sodden like appearance go up to the root, too extremely maintained a first-rate kernel. And 2018 fluid of healthy atmosphere of wrinkled giant hyssop raises price 10% hind, this takes medical industry the sheet of 1/4 tastes the gross profit that can yield whole medicine industry to be able to promote 2.5%
To whole of cost of sales the level of 27, I picked the company of 3 standard of comparison, a poetic name of China is connected, Ma Yinglong, big ginseng forest rate of cost of sales is respectively 3.2% , 30% and 30% it is respectively 25% , 50% with the weight of 25% , what the 3 business character that this is exterminatory company will do is full-time, computational charge is occupied than be in probably 23% , actual expenses is much went out 4% , and see its cost of sales form:
Main problem is in uphold development charge with advertisement and market, the market defends development fee bad to say, ad fare people can look in recent years the CCTV mark king of as neat as grand cogongrass medicinal liquor head, ding Kundan has been hanged full elevator subway, charge also not as good as too extremely:
