After 51 holiday, coke futures breaks through platform of early days concussion, successive and strong go up raise, end on May 8 coke futures 1909 agreement rise in all 101 yuan / ton, accumulative total goes up a 5 ％ . Of coke this second break through prices up, call-over with ministry of zoology environmental protection environmental protection of cooking of critical Shanxi province and produce can incident of punish not do one's best has immediate concern.
On May 6, zoology environment ministry is reported " group of superintend of environmental protection of central the 2nd zoology saves feedback to Shanxi " look round " reach special superintend situation " . Mention among them, shanxi saves superintend to although gain active headway,be rectified and reform, but still put in thought understanding not to reach the designated position, responsibility is fulfilled not quite strong wait for a problem, a few domains are rectified and reform perfunctorily, the surface is rectified and reform, rectify and reform phonily wait for a problem to still be highlighted quite.
First-run superintend and director of central environmental protection is checked rectify and reform a circumstance " look round " already ended, group of superintend of each environmental protection investigates object feedback case in the light of all superintend and director, but relatively the other province such as the Hunan that already announced, Hubei, the case that the environmental protection superintend and director that Shanxi saves investigates a feedback is relatively severe, also be first cooking of province of Shanxi of exposure, criticism produces can outspread, extinguish the problem such as Jiao Shui pollution, because this caused the market,to later period Shanxi province cooking environmental protection is restricted to produce reach produce can of punish long-term and anxious. On May 8, CCTV a news 30 minutes of programs save environmental protection superintend and director technically to check with respect to Shanxi " look round " later the circumstance has a story, (although main story object is buried to fill) was to arouse the market to save what how have repair in the light of cooking industry to anticipate to later period Shanxi further more. In black accordingly other breed loses now situation below dropping environment, coke futures is gone against alone situation increase the spread on the storehouse.
According to exposure of group of superintend of environmental protection of central the 2nd zoology, shanxi province is in currently build cooking project 8, involve new increase production can 10.7 million tons; Draft 10 to build a project, involve produce can index 13.36 million tons. Superintend group straight from the shoulder pointed out in last few years Shanxi saves cooking to produce can " decrease more more " dense disease, province of the Shanxi before this produces the relevant file amount that can issue about cooking numerous, but fulfil cooking to produce can cut on, make progress without what materiality really. And after this second problem exposure, the contaminative problem of extinguish anxious water was mentioned on bright face, probable meeting causes Shanxi to save the attention to processing of cooking enterprise water pollution. to air pollution, cooking industry undertakes data cheat very hard on the issue that water pollution handles or be wrong peak production perfunctory superintend and director is checked, because processing of this water pollution can say,also be a lot of in the pain spot of small cooking enterprise.
Look integratedly so, group of superintend of environmental protection of central the 2nd zoology is saved to Shanxi " look round " feedback opinion, still have the place of the pointed out Shanxi saves cooking company pain spot of specific aim very much, subsequently big probability meets Shanxi province government to publish a series of yield to be able to be rectified in the light of cooking industry reach discharge the specific requirement that rectify and reform. We think, considering this year (8-9 month) Shanxi blueness carries meeting and in October of the large activity such as 70 years of Daqing inform against, shanxi province is led probably to the manner of environmental protection this year and won't lax, again overlay of group of this superintend of second environmental protection rectify and reform a requirement, shanxi province is produced in the light of partial cooking can exit, and anxious water of cooking enterprise extinguish is discharged wait for relevant processing to be able to increase strength or should be quickened. The requirement of equipment of environmental protection form a complete set carries ceaselessly litre, can use up cooking company cash to flow in great quantities, those who cause company cost is remarkable carry litre, force thereby a few what throw without equipment of ability reentry travel is medium small cooking is exited.
Of course, current environmental protection saves the influence of cooking industry event to still be in hype to expect level to Shanxi, practical effect evaluates need when exact environmental protection movement is carried out. Place beyond water cannot save close fire, we still need to consider the real case of supply and demand of instantly coke market.
Current coke market is in expensive stock + tall supply + below the play chess of rich of supply and demand of strong demand, annulus comparing also appeared really a few improving evidence.
1) coke supplies end, fall easily to rise hard
Coke the 2nd round carry go up 100 already was accepted by place of parcel area steelworks, cooking industry is average on the base that profit has controlled in 100 yuan again somewhat outspread, because the production of itself of this cooking enterprise is enthusiastic rising. But the yield of cooking enterprise can utilization rate, from 2019 Spring Festival hind already stabilized the exalted level that controls in 80 ％ continuously, the possibility that if consider later period Xuzhou, Shanxi to and other places is pounded by environmental protection and be restricted,produces, the start working level of cooking enterprise falls easily to rise hard.
Graph 1: The yield of anxious look forward to of independence of current a hunderd schools can utilization rate still comes high 80.6 ％
2) coke demand end, blast furnace of Chun Xia season is restricted to produce anticipate not as good as
The environmental protection of blame heating season that according to the Tang Shan before this, Wu An and other places releases is restricted to produce plan to look, be restricted actually of current steelworks blast furnace to produce a situation anticipate not as good as. According to Mysteel statistic, since May stop production of Tang Shan accumulative total 15 blast furnace, add up to affects day all molten iron measures thirty-five thousand five hundred tons, relatively the market before this beforehand 100 thousand tons of or so day of appraise all iron aquatic product still can have apparent difference. What iron aquatic product measures is exuberant, caused the strong demand of coke, be opposite then of coke tall supply also reflect went out to absorb ability more by force.
3) coke expensive stock, by add delay to fall
From the point of integral inventory level, the middle ten days of a month on April, inventory of whole segment statistic adds coke to begin to turn around to 13.6 million tons or so downward. Although fall relatively delay, but will look from inventory structure, stock of anxious look forward to falls more apparent, this also is cooking enterprise dares to carry the main courage source that goes up two rounds. And haven inventory is climbed continuously litre reach 4.53 million tons, ceaseless refresh history is highest value, but many inventory are haven " dead " commerce inventory, do not have negotiability on current price level, because this is opposite to the concussion of the market finite. Although be 14.25 days,the coke inventory of steelworks can be counted with the day, attribute higher level, but the environmental protection influence that exists possibly considering enterprise of later period cooking, itself profit quite the steelworks of abundant is carried to cooking go up to be spent with the acceptance of deliver goods taller.
Graph 2: Coke whole inventory already in April the last ten-day of a month appears inflection point
Proposal and risk clew trade related
Look integratedly so, group of superintend of central environmental protection " look round " enterprise of cooking of feedback Shanxi province is produced can the concussion of dilate and blowdown problem incident, again supply and demand of itself of overlay coke market is put in a few annulus to compare improvement, those who caused this second coke option market shift to an earlier date " excited " . Look for a long time from which, coke environmental protection anticipates already rose, the atmosphere that coke price rises easily to drop hard has been formed. Meet besides the much sheet of coke futures low hold (suggest combinative radical difference undertakes the storehouse is operated moving) outside, also can consider coke 9-1 to covering strategy.
But the presence that also needs to see a few risks nod: Blast furnace of season of one dispute heating is restricted to be carried out strictly what produce, this will form concussion to coke demand, of price of coke of be a burden on rise; 2 it is terminal demand glides, rolled steel price and steel-making profit together considerably fall after a rise, this spends the acceptance that brings about steelworks to rise to raw material reduce significantly; 3 it is measure of coke environmental protection if anticipate not as good as,be carried out or do not come tardy, so only the supply and demand by current coke market is the prices that props up coke price to appear to go up greatly continuously hard; 4 it is current coke futures rises in price faster, opposite haven rises to clinch a deal lack of powerly in light of the price, convert storehouse sheet is in smooth water state basically, current position chases after much coke futures to need discretion certainly further.
The country sends the futures that bring a letter
Presiding Cao Ying invests black advisory date: Z0012043
The article comes from place of Future common feelings of people to
