Egg gentleman: Egg price had created the history in May!

Egg price created the history in May

Countrywide egg price is strong in May rise, go up big, of strength come by force for nearly 10 years the corresponding period is infrequent! End on May 11: Produce a division all valence 4.27 yuan / jin, rise than May 1 0.72 yuan; Sell a division all valence 4.48 yuan / jin, rise than May 1 0.62 yuan, of be worthy of the name " rocket egg " ! Following plan institute show:

Act on the smooth health that defends egg price, safeguard broad medium small breed aquatics door interest, egg gentleman always holds to clew risk, do not cry easily absolutely go up, but in May this " rocket egg " make the author unconscious thoroughly, must admit: Egg price had broken free from conventions this year in May, create the history! Pursue as follows, comparative history the corresponding period, went up this year in May big, of strength it is by force almost " perpendicular pull go up " , let person shock!

2013 up to now price of egg of laborious collect area takes situation picture

If say price of 3-4 month egg strong it is normal to still calculate, so May " perpendicular pull go up " break completely before the rule, although implicit value is returned,did not exceed 2014, but the corresponding period goes up already refresh historical record!

This plants a day to go up one wool, even of two wool " rocket egg " , in former years can happen mid-autumn only during stock up, and began May this year, the individual feels this cannot have explained only with the supply and demand of egg oneself, must from the solution is sought outside the industry. This kind breaks the phenomenon of historical convention, the viewpoint before making the author must think over, also be worth development of a man of insight inside the industry to consider.

Pulled in May going up is demand end grows be caused by

May " rocket egg " differ apparently with 3-4 month, the motivation that rise in price basically comes from demand end, come from southern Guangdong market, pursue as follows:

Egg gentleman atelier: On north wide the 3 great values that sell a division go situation

Leave year since, beijing egg price keeps balance with Guangdong for many times, it is to surmount Guangdong even, the egg price of 3-4 month rises is almost start by Beijing. But in May this " rocket egg " start above all from Guangdong however, beijing passivity follows the interest that go up apparent.

Is China market economy? Opinions vary, the standard is differ, but most west country does not admit, because factitious element is too much, administrative interpose is too strong. Specific to the egg this is planted small many goods, the individual thinks only Guangdong says to go up " market economy " , beijing Shanghai is not. Guangdong egg city is real free market, at ordinary times demand is steady, the price is main by supply a decision, go weak more to the car, to the car little rise in price. And on May 1 up to now, dongguan and Guangzhou arrive the volume is normal, the price is pulled considerably however go up, can explain egg demand increases only.

"Industrial product price sees consumption, produce price looks supply " , this is common law, come to Guangdong for years egg price reflected this one pattern basically. The demand of the egg inside annual and specific period very much the same, consumption of egg of Chinese average per capita 0.8, everybody won't eat two one day without special account, more what is more,the rather that this kind is relatively off-season in May. And the demand of Guangdong increases suddenly however this year, can seek the solution from body of 2 senior fellow apprentice only.

Examine the impact of swine fever and egg price afresh

Many article place analyses before author of no less than, supply of 4-5 month egg is in opposite trough, this was last year fill first half of the year column amount is small bring about jointly with hair of frequency of current epidemic situation, supply nervous in former years similarly to also had happened, for instance 2014, waited 2018, but calendar year did not happen in May this year " perpendicular pull go up " , this has outside element to drive necessarily, so the author can examine the impact of African swine fever and egg price again only. About the relation of both, two special period must cause under take seriously:

1, 2016 6-7 month

2016 6-7 month, live pig price achieves historical record, amount to 20.5 yuan / kilogram, and price of egg of the corresponding period is 2.8-3.1 only however yuan / jin (produce a division all valence) , live pig soares, and egg price drops however.

2, 2019 3-5 month

Price of 3-5 month live pig was in 15.5 yuan continuously 2019 / or so kilograms wander, and the corresponding period " rocket egg " blast off enter the space. At present live pig amount of livestock on hand drops 30% above, and egg chicken amount of livestock on hand is again low unapt also drop 30% , but it is pig price however at present not lukewarm not fire, egg price flies towering, how to explain?

Egg gentleman viewpoint: Pig price and egg price are not simple positive close, in specific period, both more apt negative closes: "Pig price falls → egg price rises " or " pig price rises → egg price falls " .

This kind of major information about and appraisal of an epidemic is opposite African swine fever supply and demand two end are influential, live pig amount of livestock on hand drops considerably, but common people scruples somewhat for certain inside the certain period after epidemic situation erupts, bring about pork to consume same take a sudden turn and become worse rapidly. Pig price is not so lukewarm from beginning to end not fire, in expecting " pig flying Apsaras of 8 give up, marshal of redo day bitter fleabane " not within the foreseeable future.

Pork consumption falls to spur birds pork demand considerably necessarily, and the fryer is produced requirement still can be not satisfied after course quickness is outspread, more austere is current fryer and egg chicken same, suffer all sorts of epidemic situation effects, produce can grow be restrained. Although live pig is mixed of birds egg replace a relation finite, but fryer and egg chicken are " chicken " , two industries are put in the correlation of countless ties, this caused a series of consequence, for instance: Many goods egg is used as fleshy miscellaneous young plant, egg chicken cleans out gallinaceous price to upsurge bring about a part to exceed naughty etc

Northeast erupted above all last year swine fever, later price of pig of 9 months northeast take a sudden turn and become worse rapidly, and egg price is compared all the time however other produce a division strong. Northward this year swine fever is appeased gradually, south happens from time to tome, price of 4-5 month pig is stable, and egg price is in Guangdong however guide fall to fly towering! These circumstances explain: Have to swine fever when consumer when scrupling, pig price is fatigued and weak, and egg of relevant birds flesh, birds soares possibly; When pig price rises greatly, show consumer is eliminated basically to the shadow of swine fever, the substitute such as egg of birds flesh, birds goes likely weak.

Prospective egg price goes situation and futures strategy

Reason became clear the relation of swine fever and egg price, with respect to relatively can logical explanation current " rocket egg " , go to prospective egg price thereby situation make reasonable judgement.

1, short-term egg price goes situation

Individual viewpoint: After soaring through this round, terminal market needs time to digest high price, short-term egg price will go steady gradually, parcel area has small fall after a rise, but egg price whole went up easily to drop hard in May, the course still has the space that continues to rush after adjustment of a few days.

2, price of 6-7 month egg goes situation

Price of annual 6-7 month egg has a callback, it is extent differs only just (pursue as follows) , this is the regular decision with egg peculiar market, for instance: The student has a holiday spending falls, air temperature lifts egg quality drops, year old a large number of chicklings that column fills at the beginning of last years of a dynasty or reign leave gradually produce etc.

Annual the fall after a rise that price of 6-7 month egg has certain range

Accordingly the individual thinks, egg price had hard in May fall greatly, and 6-7 month is put in particular risk, but the existence because of swine fever, drop scope should be less than in former years.

3, egg price takes second half of the year and next year first half of the year situation

The egg price this year goes certainly will to must consider two factors: In quantity of laying hen amount of livestock on hand and pork price. Know exactly about sth exceeds according to showing the filling column this year April is measured 100 million, 5-6 month estimates also won't low. Mid-autumn after National Day, the huge amount that from last year the end of the year begins fills column produces translate into tremendously can, and at the appointed time African swine fever already lasted one year superabundant, much rarer to the shadow of swine fever place reduces common people, this disappear the other party is chief! Consume pork afresh when common people, pull truly when pig price when going up, the likelihood is egg price during going weak thoroughly.

4, the strategy of egg futures 09/01

About JD1909, the individual maintains original point of view: All should not be for nothing more currently, empty storehouse is wait-and-see and optimal (short line except) . Current egg price soares, and prices has not been started mid-autumn, do empty 09 disagreement are basic face, and make much price on the high side, author choice is so wait-and-see. If 09 mid-autumn before prices can the callback arrives near 4000-4100 bold do much, wait otherwise prices perch is put mid-autumn empty.

About JD1901, stem from gallinaceous field to cover no matter protect, long term still and congenial, the author thinks current position is OK sky of cloth director line is odd, above paragraphs of main area reason is discussed adequately already. The particular operation of concerned egg futures is politic, the welcome is joined " egg gentleman is real dish of guidance group " .

Above all is viewpoint of egg gentleman individual, pure belong to pull an egg, cannot regard investment as the basis, if because this produces loss,not be in charge of without exception.

(be over) egg gentleman on May 12, 2019