In building city, concept and noun are very much, but 50 ％ are shotten, 30 ％ are flicker person, crossing 20 ％ at most is worth reference.
Say so, think the data that publishs from news and index will judge prospective room to price rises or drop, it is the most ignorant.
Today, I analyse next media to everybody the most commonly used, but a few data that provide beguiling sex most, let you see the merit of data backside. Teach everybody how to judge house price to go again finally situation.
01
Hire return rate
Hire return rate, also make hire carry out comparing, it is the ratio of year of hire that points to a house and house total prices, in order to measures the income that invests house property, understandable also for, rental much teenager can call in cost. The article discusses the residence only.
Above was 2019 the pop chart of hire return rate of 50 main cities of our country.
This chart, if be compared with foreign photograph, besides allow authority outside the tall house price of exclaim our country and incendiary angst mood, without a single redeeming feature, fine long hair holds value without any real significances and fact. I am OK fine long hair tells impolitely: This kind of algorithmic hire return rate is an extremely big jest. The reason is as follows:
One, buy time to decide hire return rate
The Shanghai that above pursues medium is exemple, the hire return rate 2019 is 1.8 ％ , with the bank a year period time deposit accrual 1.75 ％ are about the same, rent 56 years ability is answered that is to say this, so low return rate, buy a room to still be inferior to putting a bank.
But the essence of the problem is however, use at hack house on Shanghai field at present, return rate compares 1.8 ％ tower above a lot of times, the reason is, what they buy is early.
The Shanghai house price 2015 is equivalent to present 1/2, was equivalent to present 1/3 2010, was equivalent to present 1/10 2005.
That is to say, if your Shanghai is used at hack house, bought 2005, that present hire return rate is 18 ％ , if was bought 2010, that present hire return rate is 5.4 ％ , if was bought 2015, that present hire return rate is 3.6 ％ .
What achieve return rate of 1.8 ％ hire only truly is rare actually, investor of great majority house property is to enjoying superhigh yield, chummage enclothes a month to offer far already, and a lot of rely on to rent already time this.
To any city, the price that you buy is constant changeless, but hire is met as house price rise and synchronism rises, what house price rises is much, what hire also can go up is much.
So, the biggest mistake uses present hire and present house price to calculate return rate namely, this is without a meaning. Correct algorithm should be to use present hire to divide with buying fashionable house price in those days, this ability is the most objective the actualest.
Accordingly, must not by each media so called report and data becloud, media and orgnaization are when rich eyeball, won't tell you the truth forever, probably they do not know the fact at all.
Actually, objective fact and go up the graph is completely contrary, no matter you are,buy 10 years ago, still buy 5 years ago, similar fund is devoted, buying the hire return rate of city of wide deep a gleam of on north is the whole nation is top certainly, rank the Xining before leaning, Urumqi instead this kind of city is the most undeserved investment however.
2, rise in value of oversight house price
Hire return rate, the beguiling sex of this data, return what body ignored house price itself completely now to go up. It is instead, house price rises faster, hire return rate is minorrer.
Can be in when house price a year of varus times when, only fool just can care about the discretion of hire return rate. The objective of a few investment that I meet, the house would rather close for nothing, not rental, it is this truth.
Soare in house price before, hire is completely undeserved be reluctant to leave.
Now, you should be understandable, why do I say hire return rate is the data of a good for nothing! Because, besides try to please the public with claptrap, cannot get any significant things from inside this index, without any referenced value. Will measure investment value with hire return rate, be most madness.
Hire return rate, carry stable state all the year round in house price, chummage only, just have analytic value and direct sense, be in our country to be able to abolish completely.
On May 23, courtyard of Chinese company division releases " estate blue book: Chinese estate develops report No.16 (2019) " , forecast our country residence sold average price to grow 7.6 ％ 2019, city of focal point of conjectural share will expect a level this more than considerably.
This year whether reach this target or unknown number, the trend that nevertheless price of house of town of line of just a little and hire rise for a long time steadily is beyond question.
Accordingly, in the friend of city of line of just a little, want hire to be able to enclothe a month basically to offer only, can consider to continue to invest house property. But if be tall lever,Gao Yue is offerred, need to await the policy signal that open goes up greatly patiently.
02
House value income is compared
House value income is compared, it is to point to housing total prices and dweller family year of income than, with will measure buy a house difficult easy degree, what say normally namely, a family does not have not to drink what much teenager can buy to have a common housing.
In pursueing on, shenzhen is ranked the first, that is to say, an one ring house that Shenzhen family otherwise has not to drink 34.2 years to just can be bought.
This data how shocking, but who has seen the person that confused 30 old ability to be able to afford a room, chinese housing is commercialized also ability trifling 20 years. Average college is graduate, in Shenzhen job struggling 5-8 year marry buy a house already special and general.
House value income compares the beguiling sex of this data, because,basically be oversight two main factors:
One, buy a room to be able to borrow money
Income of Shenzhen house value is compared 34.2, those who point to is assemble quite entire section buys a room to need 34.2 years again, and reality is a flatlet however need only 3 into head pay, the rest can borrow money, so, income of this house value compares not better than 11.
2, most person does not buy a house
Still be with Shenzhen exemple, 2018 end, population of Shenzhen census register 4.547 million, often live population thirteen million and twenty-six thousand six hundred, practical government population exceeds 20 million, that is to say, census register population occupies the 22.7 ％ of total population only, the 77.3 ％ that remain population of dispute census register and hobo.
Many ab extra population, the purpose has only: Make money, is not to buy a house. Their great majority settles without the plan at all Shenzhen, is to demand the life only, they need to rent a house only, the money that leave is used 34 lines native place builds a house or buy a house back and forth.
When whole society, the person that exceeds an in part does not need to buy a house, and when needing to hire a room to perhaps stay in dormitory only, the average wage of whole society comes to reoccupy beguine of income of computational house value this with respect to no point.
So, the house value income of Shenzhen is compared, should according to resident Shenzhen, and can acquire the good-paying group of house bill will calculate, is not work staff includes an ab extra Wu inside completely.
The level of every city is different, the amount that draws attraction financing volume and talented person is different also, so, the house value income of 3 lines city compares just a little should calculate according to the following formula:
Income of value of house of town of a gleam of compares ＝ housing total prices / good-paying crowd is average year of income
Income of value of house of second line town compares ＝ housing total prices / in produce a crowd average year of income
Income of value of 345 lines house compares ＝ housing total prices / whole society is average year of income
House value income is compared, this data that has been employed bad by media, besides by foolish empty now and then take argumentation house price bubble and sensational outside, do not have real significance completely, will judge house price to had reached the summit with this is eyewash more.
03
Index of price of 70 towns house
National statistic bureau was released on May 16 in April 2019 portion 70 big in sale price of urban commodity house is fluctuant circumstance, 67 cities built link of commodity house price in April than rising, among them, go up of a to lead is island of emperor of the Qin Dynasty, go up amount to 1.8% ; On north wide go up greatly it is respectively 0.5% , 0.3% , 1.1% , 0.4% .
Believe to care the friend of estate, this data that signs up for every months to statistical bureau absolutely not unfamiliar. Nevertheless, I do not look, also do not care, more feel funny to come extremely.
Because the job concerns, I know the friend inside a few system, than as above sea bureau of earth of the room canal bureau of each area, compasses is mixed build a canal appoint a few staff members.
I ever listened to them to divulge for many times, from 2017 second half of the year begins, the price fixing policy of Shanghai is right not just open a floor newly dish price limit ceiling, and, in high price of any urban district dish before wanting, him business of meeting demand development goes a suburb looking for a low dish, two dish at the same time to the room tubal bureau is examined and approve, one tall open quotation of ability of price of house of one low bring to the same level, cannot find low dish protect put oneself in another's position to oneself, want to sell high price the door do not have.
So, want to make statistical data good-looking, open a few suburbs with respect to how dish, think price allowing a room drops, let a person of extraordinary powers procrastinate two years curtilage. Go up go up drop, everything all accuses in the palm.
Of course, rely on the city of a few 23 lines that land finance has a meal, price of house of intended drive up, avoid land shedding to pat with this, assure finance income, completely understandable also. After all, to doing not have pillar industry in for small town, backer eats hill to rely on water draft, also be helpless lift.
Say so, the room price that should judge a city rises drop, can see the value of skill room anything but, especially statistical data of the government. And should look secondhand of the room measure and clinch a deal valence, because, the ability that the palm that do not have a law controls is the truest.
04
How to judge house price to go situation
Judgement house price goes situation actually far from difficult, you need to remove unnecessary interference only, income of value of the hire return rate that than as above face I mention, house is compared, index of price of house of 70 cities bridal chamber is waited a moment, these all were not used.
You need to remember well only the following at 3 o'clock, house price goes situation all mastering:
One, secondhand room data
Development business earns do not make money, earn how many money, oneself said to calculate far from. And landlord earns many little, complete oneself are done advocate. So, the market that the palm dominates him landlord, just be real market.
In city of line of just a little, judgement house price goes situation, need to pay close attention to two index only: Every months secondhand the residence clinchs a deal quantity, fixed a few board piece the autograph restrains contract price.
34 lines city, as a result of secondhand room market is underdeveloped, so, should from price of skill room open quotation go situation will judge, identical board piece, same quality building dish, same perhaps Xiaoou in installment open quotation, open more expensive more, and still queue up to grab a room, that explains house price begins to rise in the round.
It is in a word, line of just a little looks secondhand room, 34 lines see skill room.
2, be restricted to buy be restricted to borrow
Be restricted to buy be restricted to borrow is building city the biggest kill implement, be restricted to make work be restricted business is restricted to leave be restricted enterprise, it is pediatric.
Loosen be restricted to buy is to introduce an other place to invest a guest, unlock be restricted to borrow is to encourage this locality to invest a guest, two are unlocked, house price can turn over times one year at most.
If one day, 2 flatlet of Beijing head pay fall from 80 ％ to 50 ％ , 2 flatlet of Shanghai head pay will come from 70 ％ 40 ％ , that ability is house price what go up greatly is augural.
3, government-owned intermediary is oriented
Price of our country house rose 20 years, why can still you have fry lodger to explode storehouse anaemia? In the final analysis, it is not obedient, enter the opportunity is incorrect, and cash shedding does not boil house price to rebound.
Adjusting control policy or it is loose policy before coming on stage, scarcely can be calm announce suddenly, can make a kind of public opinion direct beforehand with government-owned intermediary however direct with common feelings of people.
This is to went 2015 the Guan Xuan of inventory and price of certain 2018 room, everybody can be experienced below.
"Word audition a party, follow a party to go " , this word is jest in the stock market, but the first truth is however in building city.
05
Who is forecast
With the notional without number related estate, but great majority is essential to judging room value trashy, for instance income of value of hire return rate, house is compared, build index of commodity house price, leverage, M2, reserve number, go changing periodic, monetary policy, directional fall to lower interest definitely etc. These just have referenced value in western market economy only.
And domestic building city, need only secondhand room data, be restricted to buy be restricted to borrow, government-owned intermediary directs at the same time union was together at 3 o'clock, completely OK oneself judge house price to go situation.
Home of so called brick, listen less had better. Our great chairman once had said: Without practice, do not have right to speak. With one pile data, one pile form, the just also is without experience Xiaobai that flicker goes to.
Be sure to keep in mind a bit, house price can be judged according to having policy only, and cannot forecast, all purposes forecast house price to go up definitely to your essence dropping bricky home, it is cheater.
The work force with building city the soliddest research, what than others in advance one pace disclosure rises and drop namely is augural, only this just.
