" think fast with slow " gambling house is not smoked old 1000, earn your money all the same, thos

A content, we said the 2nd focal point of this book, two kinds of typical bias in human thinking, one kind is to inspire bring about, one kind is undue self-confidence is brought about, next, I say the last focal point of this book for everybody:

How do we keep away from the trap of the choice?

The author obtains Nobel economics the main reason of award is he put forward " foreground is academic " , he discovers people the risk preference when facing gain and loss is different, in face " lose " when, can pursue a venture, and face " get " when meeting avoid risk. Have bit of abstraction so, let us cite a case.

For instance problem 1, if you can get 900 dollars for certain, the possibility that perhaps has 90% can get 1000 dollars, those who have 10% you cannot get possibility one minute.

Where is the 900 dollars that can you choose to agree to will surely be taken?

Can you still go can the probability of 90% take gain 1000 dollars?

Below this kind of circumstance, most person can choose avoid venture, the choice gets 900 dollars.

But another problem, if you affirm meeting loss 900 dollars, the possibility that perhaps has 90% is met loss 1000 dollars, the possibility that has 10% won't have any losses.

Loss of affirmation of your meeting choice Where is 900 dollars?

Still can choose rich the probability of 10% , what won't loss?

When the loss that faces determinism, most person can choose to take a risk.

If expecting to be worth identical risk,the choice is made in accrual and certain earnings, we can choose to determine income. And in face affirmatory losing circumstance to fall, our apt goes taking a risk. Use this theory, the behavior that we can forecast us and decision-making. A very good example is gambling house, most person thinks, gambling house is to lean all sorts of advanced equipment and smoke old 1000 will gain profit.

But actually, gambling house is likely whats need not be done, can make money. How is letting us see them accomplished.

Below normal circumstance, of everybody winning money and the probability that lose money is same, it is 50% , but according to the foreground theory above, after a gambler gains fund, he can choose avoid venture, can reduce chip in namely, avoid a loss. And be defeated by money hind when a gambler, he can choose to take a risk, chip in will be increasing.

Say simply so even if, in the person that leaves from gambling house, win money and the person that lose money to take an in part each, but interesting is, be defeated by the more that the person of money is defeated by, and the comparison that the person that gains fund wins is little, so gambling house almost whats need not be done, rely on human nature to be able to make money only.

In actual life, foreground is academic as much effective, have more the example of figure is, we use foreground theory to be able to explain, why the poor is willing to take a risk more, and wealthy person is more conservative, because the poor connects regular meeting to face a loss, accordingly they can choose venture; And wealthy person can be faced normally obtain, because of the accrual of this their apt determinism, namely more conservative.

People detests degree generally to want to what lose ambitious like rate at what get. "Lose " more intense than getting a person feeling. Fear losing mood can let us can forgo even a few very favorable opportunities, let us more the thing that cares about oneself to have.

The author is what this kind of state of mind says " gift effect " , point to namely once have some article,become an individual, so he should be compared to the evaluation of this article value before was not being had, increase greatly.

For instance we bought a share, can think this stock value can jump. You spent 500 yuan high price to buy entrance ticket of concert of a piece of star, even if fare is fried later prep above 500 yuan, you also won't sell this piece of bill, because abandon the anguish of a piece of ticket wanting,this is ambitious at getting a piece of bill.

This kind of phenomenon is in economics, also can use " the loss is detested " theory will explain, people is disequilibrium to terrible balance in decision-making process, right " avoid kill " the regard is broad at be opposite " hasten benefit " consideration. Stem from pair of losing to dread, people often can ask for exorbitant price when selling goods.

We interpreted the content in front, our cerebra has two decision-making systems, system 1 with the system 2. Most circumstance, it is a system 1 doing for us decision-making, and system 1 meeting gets the influence of outside ambient and thinking formulary, affection and mood, detest a loss for instance or foreground is academic.

Traditional economics thinks, the person is selfishness and reason, but the author points out, the person is being done decision-making when, be not be reason, the reason that perhaps says us is finite. Human preference can get the influence of logistic consistency, for instance we get very easily " the eye sees for solid " influence, and do not be willing to think. People also adopts a system instantly when apt occurrence problem 1 give out the answer. Clever investor won't treat a stock everyday, because see a stock suffer the effect of the mood everyday, we often can be made a few those who pay no attention to a gender is decision-making. Tell from this angle, system 1 nearsightedness and mood are changed.

Our cerebra is inherent it is lazy, system 1 think the world is concise, have the rule and accord with simple causal, but actually real world wants far what imagine than us is complex. The author points out, want to avoid the thinking pitfall above, we are about to do allow a system 2 dominant our cerebra is decision-making, replace intuition with reason, replace judgement of simple cause and effect with statistical probability, the system that avoids to let detest loss and nearsightedness 1 do for us decision-making.

Good, the content of this book with respect to respecting here, let us consider the point that this book place says back and forth.

Above all, we are told, cerebrum is put in two decision-making systems, system 1 with the system 2, system 1 be to be based on intuition and sensibility, be good at having simple and quick reaction to the thing, belong to fast think; And system 2 be to be based on reason and discretion, be good at having logistic inference and operation to the thing, belong to slow think. However our cerebra is very lazy, below most circumstance, it is a system 1 in dominant our thinking is mixed decision-making.

Next, we are told, our cerebra has bias of a lot of thinking, one kind is because of the bias that inspire a law and brings about, for instance anchor decides effect, can get sexual bias, affection bias to wait a moment, because,its prime cause is cerebrum system 1 be good at automatic and ground of without striking a blowing distinguishs an object between causal, and this kind causal likelihood exists far from; The 2nd kind is the decision-making error that causes because of undue self-confidence, our everyone exists transfer self-confident nature, and transfer what self-confident meeting brings pair of issues is blind and hopeful, this also can bring about us to produce the wrong judgement to the thing.

Finally, we are told, besides the cognitive bias of cerebrum, we are in selection process, return formulary of meeting existence thinking, for instance the author puts forward " foreground is academic " and " gift effect " two kinds when compare a pattern among them namely. We can adopt the strategy of risk avoid because of the acquisition of determinism; And the strategy that because the loss of determinism is adopted,can pursue a venture. In the meantime, we have the mentality that the loss detests, this lets us more the thing that cares about oneself to had been had, and overmeasure its value. Finally, the author points out, in the life, should prevent a system the cognitive bias of 1 generation, introduce a system as far as possible with respect to need the decision-making system of 2, let reason replace sensibility, let statistical probability replace causal, ability becomes a sane person truly.