Civil | Liu Xiaoxue

Su Bu of presiding economy adviser pulls Manian before Indian Ministry of finance (Arvind Subramanian) the paper that the near future published method of statistic of GDP of India of a doubt, cause pay close attention to with all possible means. He thinks Indian economy increase rate is in 2011 - between 2017 by overmeasure 2.5 percent, prickle Indian government all the more each branches. Statistical data makes a holiday to any governments it is embarrassed thing. And proud to still just be in native increase rate overtakes eventually for Indian people of China, this one conclusion also makes a person be accepted hard.

Actually, compare with appearance of system of the economy in other development, statistical number of India suffers doubt very less. Going up somehow, this is thanked even in those days the civilian system that British colonist leaves, the India after independence not only continue to use this kind of system, the arrangement that still passes constitution and other and relevant law reduces the political effect to civilian team as far as possible, for India civilian people established a height to specialization the figure of the group. However, after Mo Di appears on the stage, bureau of Indian country statistic (Central Statistics Office, CSO) adjust a few times yield with economy concerned data, caused every time arrive from political circles academic controversy, implicative its independent character and authority also are oppugned.

Data frequency is adjusted provoke controversy

At the beginning of 2015, mo Di appears on the stage to return dissatisfaction one year, statistical branch released new GDP series data, adjusting this basically is will base year from 2004/2005 year adjust for 2011/2012 year (note: Indian money year to came every year in April the coming year in March) , also complemented additionally new data, perfect computational method.

Although adjust base year the statistical convention that is India, every other of national statistic bureau is about 5 years to be adjusted to 6 years, but after this result comes out, still be your society all circles feels accident: 2012/2013 year with 2013/2014 two money year increase rate increased 0.4 to mix respectively 2.2 percent, rise to be mixed to 5.1 ％ 6.9 ％ . This is apparent the feeling with the people is different -- inflationary tall look forward to, rupee demotes urgently, foreign exchange reserve is critical, the Central Bank already must increase interest rate one after another at that time, and in pairs of demand side exit, investment glides, how may the economy below this kind of circumstance achieve the growth of nearly 7 ％ ? And, according to method of new data, new statistic, the increase rate that Mo Di is in office the first year is to be as high as 7.4 ％ more. Although market confidence appears on the stage to have truly because of new government,restore, economy to good also show clue gradually, but from anabiosis take off or have certain space.

The sound that oppugns at that time basically comes from academia. The presiding economy that Indian Ministry of finance assumes when Subulamanian is advisory, he is being chaired in those days finish " 2014-2015 India economy is investigated " in, special the problem that points out new data series and existence of multinomial economic norms do not match, but he also admits, "Unless longer time alignment data can offer an analysis, and can cut witting statistic branch truly complemented after all what new data, adjusted what calculation method, otherwise present data series explains the past very hard a few years the moving contrail of Indian economy. Otherwise present data series explains the past very hard a few years the moving contrail of Indian economy..

As India 2019 the drawing near of general election, bureau of Indian country statistic published the compensatory edition of new series data in November 2018 again, this is according to new statistic the method arranges the finished data before 2011, so that with what already enabled after 2011 new base year data form contrast. This is the thing that the academia expects for a long time originally. But according to new the data that publish, associated progress is allied (UPA) be in office period (2004 - 2014) average increase rate fell now 6.7 ％ , and in the UPA in old edition statistic the increase rate of two lieutenancy is as high as 8.1 respectively ％ and 7.4 ％ .

Also did not form consensus to interior of this statistic branch. Be in early the beginning of the year, by the committee of statistic of country of advanced and civilian composition that already retired or currently holds the post of(NSC) wove data of a new series is put to the net as opinion edition, two UPA that give out among them are in office the increase rate of period is mixed for 8.4 ％ respectively 7.7 ％ . The government is to this explanation, this report is draft only, do not make final conclusion.

The government is right of different statistic result accept or reject, hard to avoid can let opposition suspicious the political motive of this backside. Opposition resents to the result not only actually, and the means that announces to data also sees of purpose. Press convention, collect of bureau of statistic of country of statistical data by is arranged, release finally, although premier, Ministry of finance grows the vice-chairman with national Planning Committee (the premier holds a chairman part-time) also can compare general public to shift to an earlier date two hours to learn an information only. And return groovy land this however by national transition committee (NITI Aayog) take the lead in releasing data. The predecessor of NITI is national Planning Committee, premier and ministerial member and each state are presiding the minister is to currently hold the post ofa committee member, in general public eye consequently it is having very strong partisanship. Release an information now by it, in the cross the border that this is function not only in opposition eye, and the destruction that also is indifferent to the authority of national statistic bureau and politics sex, after be, political force has a hand in statistic the job, let data open convenient door for political end service.

Back-to-back, when proper general election undertakes getting like a raging fire at the beginning of 2019, the 2016/2017 money that statistical bureau announced Indian country the 2nd round to had edited again year economic data (note: To perfect data ceaselessly, national statistic bureau monitors cycle in every still meet after the end the basis is additional the data that before information edits fixed or nonskedly, publishs) , from 7.1 ％ economic increase rate of this years promotion reachs 8.2 ％ , the 2017/2018 money that has edited in the first round when the corresponding period announces year in data, economic increase rate promotes 7.2 ％ from original 6.7 ％ .

Policy of useless bank note was rolled out in November 2016 in view of Mo Di, rolled out tax of unitary commodity kimono Wu in the round in July 2017 again (GST) , former cause current in cash is not worth badly, latter is short-term inside increased production and trading uncertainty, macroeconomic is pounded accordingly. National statistic bureau raises the increase rate of this one period now, apparent as general as whole society acknowledge is violated. What make a person indissoluble most is, having 2016/2017 money year when the 2nd round of data edits, it is compared only on many rounds obtained a few concerned blame to appear on the market the information of the company, so does it raise the reason that agriculture yields where to again considerably?

Anyhow, a few afore-mentioned logarithm occupy bureau of Indian country statistic adjust, make not only economist people feel bemused, also make opposition people more and more malcontent, think this is the result that the government operates. But their refute much lack to learn manage analysis, can be attributed to sensibility, a problem was published to be in Hafo till Subulamanian " degree of the possibility of Indian GDP misestimate, deviate, mechanism and enlightenment " working paper, become all the time since the biggest cobble in losing statistical deep pool, also aroused highest billow.

"In-house person " doubt

Subulamanian economy of banquet of radicals by which characters are arranged in traditional Chinese dictionaries of finance of India of ability leave one's post is advisory 2017, it is a well-trained economist, be graduated from Oxford, ever Monetary Fund of international of long-term hold post (IMF) , learn to raise deep. In people memory, because mastering the message that decision-making, economy runs economy of more concerned India, once was " in-house person " doubt makes a person more be convinced. To Subulamanian, had complemented data series because of the government complete, satisfied him to be in " economy is investigated " in had mentioned " judgement data is credible, need a longer time series " condition.

Above all, he chose 17 to be in 2001 - the index that there is very strong dependency with economic growth between 2017: Use car sale, tractor sale, industry to produce index, line of credit to wait a moment with wastage of n, oil, business, undertake recursive an analysis with GDP, it is to discover the relation of they and GDP is in around change is very big 2011, before there are 16 to show positive to close in 17 index, and later turn into 17 therein 11 show negative to close. 2 it is to discover no matter positive closes,be being returned is negative closes after 2011, the relevant degree of the much in 17 index and GDP has apparently abate. Afore-mentioned phenomena appear very hard commonly, unless economic structure had the change of essential sex, but India is done not have apparently, it just adjusted statistical method.

Next, it is very difficult that he chose 4 governments again daub, undertake international very easily again relative " good target " -- line of credit, with forehead of n, imports and exports, undertake recursive an analysis with GDP likewise, undertake with respect to this kind of associated sex and other country again transverse quite. His discovery is before 2011, in India the associated sex of these 4 index and GDP and other country are compared and all without exception is the same as, but after 2011, they and other country produced apparent difference. This still explains for new statistic the method is in only possibly do mischief.

Finally, he integrated other country 4 index and the associated sex that GDP changes and in India this is planted the limits of normal wave motion that associated sex may exist, push cipher out 2011 - the effective increase rate of GDP of the India between 2017 should be in 3.5 ％ - between 5.5 ％ .

Subulamanian also realized what all computation occupies to contend for backside hidden politics to struggle when writing this article, to show his position is neutral, his more emphasizes this research is to find out Indian statistician and technology are bureaucratic now the inadequacy of Indian statistical technology and method, he does not care cause statistical result discretion to change as to the likelihood truly. But with him once official position and the position in academia, the influence of this article exceeded the range of academia very quickly. Mo Di government also must be treated seriously long-term since the sound of the to number of Indian economy statistic doubt that exists.

After two weeks, advisory committee of Indian premier economy (PMEAC) had vote an opinion or a request from a subordinate body one by one to Subulamanian's report on behalf of the government: It is a lot of number in 17 index that Subulamanian uses monitor data center from India according to collecting -- a private advisory orgnaization, devoid authority; 2 it is the method that what Subulamanian uses is analysis of the regression that cross a state, with its India his 70 many countries undertake comparative, should appear only different, think existence data is screwy, and the uniqueness that did not realize Indian oneself completely. The method that also the scholar applies Subulamanian analysed the growth data of world other country, the GDP growth that the method that discovers use regression is analysed reachs and the data that these national oneself publish are existing not small error, or low or tall, and the GDP growth data that Germany publishs compares what computation comes out to come out high also actually 1.8 percent! So can this explain the statistical method of these countries has a problem?

In fact, a country should reach accurate economic gross data is by no means easy thing, it is statistic covers every natural person on land and legal person impossibly; 2 it is every motive that is put in income of give false information and defray by statistical object. Accordingly, statistical personnel can add complex computational formula to be accomplished hard according to finite example only be close to nitty-gritty indefinitely. To just winning the be reappointed consecutively, Mo Di government that won more clearer than previous term or session parliament majority in general election character, this is the small disturbance of a written in water nevertheless, most constituency chose Mo Di, still have stronger than this refute? Besides, the scholar besides hoary head poor classics, do not turn over without place " opposition " besides, who still can care the statistical data in the past? Busying establish the new budget, Mo Di government that describes new great plan, more the data that those who care about is future.

(the article published print hair on July 22, 2019 " finance and economics " magazine)