Anew the city accuses expose to the sun a black swan to Tai He 11.2 billion Shu strands the group, from smooth big fiducial time-out collect of estate category eye arrives business failure of many 270 estate, the king of day price ground that expires to be patted to land of city of a gleam of from debt of look forward to of 6.8 trillion room, estate market always resides the hot search of public opinion high.
Released on July 22 " fortune " the world 500 strong in, on the 5 estate company of a list of names posted up all comes from at China, they are constant respectively garden of laurel of big, green jade, greenbelt, protect benefit and 10 thousand divisions. Estate company of China is the world is the greatest not only, still be the world is most, basis the whole nation is industrial and commercial 2018 bureau statistic, china already the measure of estate development trade of registration book achieves 97 thousand.
Still remember in September 2018 portion, cry on conference of interiorly of 10 thousand divisions piece " subsist " catchword? Considerably catchphrase classics media explodes piece, greet the eye of numerous masses eating melon, catchphrase of red background wrongly written or mispronounced character " subsist " the photograph brushs screen, let whole real estate encircle on thin ice, also let everybody experience the cold winter of the market ahead of schedule. The financing environment of estate is right this year in little room look forward to appears more chilly, began May, debt of fiducial, abroad hair tightens up estate continuously, the financing channel of this kind of high cost also is shut gradually, is the turn that lets industries of many real-estate of person deep feeling about?
Financing valve one by one is pulled down, 6.8 trillion debt expires
Before half month, a urgent announcements that Guang Daxin holds in the palm brush screen each big gregarious platform, on July 11, have media coverage, guang Daxin is held in the palm release urgent announcement to say, end that day at 12 o'clock, suspend collect of eye of all estate category (include to be sold continuously and sell goods on a commission basis) , after 12 o'clock already this category order of collect is total refund. The trust company that all without exception of smooth large fiducial this action allows a person to contact the near future to appear again and again talks about and window guidance incident. Partial area silver protected inspect bureau to call together the trust company inside area under administration to attend a meeting recently, raise a requirement to landed and fiducial financing further.
Besides broad and fiducial besides, as we have learned at least 10 trust company also were received in succession in the near future about " the window is directive " announcement, the requirement strengthens estate fiducial domain risk is prevented accuse, control estate is fiducial dimensions. All the way fiducial business receives the estate of hurricane dart superintendency layer tightens up signal, to the estate company of tall lever, high turnover, also brought greater pressure from capital level, especially to facing the real-estate industry of countervail debt fastigium for, this is a bad news undoubtedly.
Of capital catenary tighten up, the real-estate industry of attribute of tall to having lever, the spirit that means a destiny no longer favor. In afterwards bank the financing channel one by one such as collect of loan, debenture, endowment canal, illicit is tightened up later, channel of the last main financing -- fiducial, also sudden prevent not as good as pull down valve.
According to constant large academy data shows, up to by 2018, room look forward to each are main channel has breath is indebted remaining sum is 20.3 trillion, predict to will be in 2019~2021 year concentration expires, expired 2019 among them dimensions is as high as 6.8 trillion. Expire thick and fast in debt, the sale glides and the setting of financing channel crimple falls, room look forward to people or domestic hair debt, go to sea hair debt, or sell equity, sell a project to plan market fund with all possible means, still have borrow return newly old wait for means in an attempt to to overshoot in safety countervail debt fastigium.
Little room look forward to goes bankrupt in increase sharply, large house look forward to sells asset often
Below the environment that is pulled down in one by one of main financing valve, many room look forward to also go or moving toward the brim that go bankrupt. The data according to net of people court announcement shows, up to on July 24, company of 274 estate of countrywide was released 2019 go bankrupt announcement, among them yesterday (24 days) have 3.
In that Zhang Changda the house property of 18 pages goes bankrupt can see in list, these room look forward to that go bankrupt since this year are everybody for the most part what not be familiar with is medium small estate company, "Save oneself " in becoming, enterprise of young house property is in the year keyword 2019. Financing cost is high it is one of main reasons that little room look forward to goes bankrupt in these, relative to at the head estate company of the first echelon formation character, little room look forward to often is fighting risk ability to go up in these weaker, and as liquidity risk increase, in very easy deep-set capital and debt crisis.
But notable is, in the room look forward to that these insolvency, not be medium little room look forward to, there still is the throughout the country above 500 strong appear on the market room look forward to is silver-colored 100 million groups, its are in deep-set after 50 billion indebted weigh, go bankrupt at was being broken out in June 2019 recombine. Be in 2018, ursine add of boss of 100 million groups returns silver by force to list Hu Run with 29.5 billion yuan body price 100 rich a list of names posted up the 95th, take next Ning Bo head rich, once head rich between one night at this point fall from the sky.
It is under financing channel crimple, this year is medium only not just little room look forward to faces the crisis, company of a few large estate also is performing the play code that breaks an arm to seek to live on ceaselessly. Encounter effective control person has an accident " black swan " the new city later accuses an eddy of deep-set all the time public opinion. In experienced usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price of substitution of tall canal lightning, investor, collaboration to just suspend trading after waiting for heavy disturbance, came out again recently " low undersell project, break an arm to seek to live on " message.
Mere after 20 days, new city accuses release urgent announcement to say to be about to sell about 40 projects are covered now, on July 24 evening, new city accuses issued the announcement that transfers project company equity first again, what weigh before this plan to sell equity of partial project company is being advanced stage by stage, trade amount or achieve 15 billion yuan.
Not come singly but in pairs, tai He group also sells a 11.2 billion Shu of 10 projects financing to strand early or late before this; Reside the indebted rate that does not leave high and management sex cash to flow let overseas Chinese city be in all the time " steel wire " go up, face bear control long already capital chain, what overseas Chinese city also has no ground speed insanity to sell asset before " the supply that answer blood " ; Below the sunshine city that regards Xin Jinqian as company of 100 million house property also not sunshine, have breath is indebted amount is as high as one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two to make as much its on thin ice, sold two high grade asset continuously in April, reclaim about 6 billion capital.
Landed where is prospective opportunity?
Financing channel is tightened up stage by stage, on one hand, numerous room look forward to is immersed in capital catenary predicament, but on the other hand, as appeared on the market in July the arrival that exposure period signs up for in the company, the perseverance of profit performance overmatch of dimensions room look forward to is stubborn, performance of partial room look forward to is relatively outstanding. On capital market, be in debt adjusting control, high as a result of building city and low add fast influence, landed enterprise all the time by market sniff, be given to be less than decuple appraise to be worth for a time.
But recently in in signing up for exposure, the outstanding achievement of landed company and very bright look, in predicting to be filled with added 15 rooms look forward to first half of the year 2019, look forward to of 100 strong rooms occupied 11. Among them, if protect benefit, greenbelt to put in parent net profit 's charge to anticipate respectively first half of the year 2019,grow 59.1% and 45.7% mix 8.82 billion yuan to 10.35 billion yuan, jin Ke is benefited to increase of item pay scale considerably, predict to put in parent net profit 's charge to be in first half of the year 20-26 100 million yuan between, came true relatively substantially add fast.
The net gain of many market companies is added fast exceed the market considerably original anticipate, in what is the backside of data put to invest logic? To real estate how should prospective opportunity look again?
Gigantic lustre investment president Ma Cheng discharges net introduction to illicit collect platoon, suffer the effect that policy adjusting control and financing tighten up, the question with estate difficult financing will be more outstanding, this will naturally eliminate one share capital little, risk resists the small-sized and landed company with poor ability, this meeting makes the industry spends farther promotion centrally, to large real estate the company tells may not is not a favour. We think, a estate board piece be underestimated for a long time, only at present the city of 10.06 times is filled with rate, far under Euramerican market 20-30 times city is filled with. So, to estate board piece, have investment value, of course, we can choose the market to have only lead tall, risk to resist the industry bibcock company with strong capability has investment, and indebted to asset dimensions of tall, enterprise relatively the local landed company of the pace still scruples somewhat.
Be aimed at eye anteroom look forward to live the current situation, chen Xiwei of personage of senior illicit collect thinks, as the be issued to lower levels of domestic economy environment, the financial orgnaization support giving a letter to estate company admittance condition also all the more is strict, from most the admittance of company of big estate of the N before beginning to restrict home gradually, arrive again the requirement is before the in city of a gleam of landed project of company of N big estate just gives support to wait a moment. In making naturally of small landed company it is more and more painful to live. But the industry is antifebrile do not represent an industry gloomy, can see in whole shuffle in the process, support and assist of fluidity also be in at the same time to these large head real estate the company tilts, matthew effect is shown.
Chen Xiwei points out, industry of itself real estate can pass through tall lever means to get the mode of extremely high income namely, high indebted rate became nature actually firstly " the status is symbolic " , jump over radical company even, indebted rate is higher. Because use low cost blend,the financing operation that come back is built, use high profit margin to sell property ever since, commercial pattern makes like that, this and other industry use tall lever movement is different. Accordingly, the growth of tall range of profit of net of room look forward to of medium dimensions above is reasonable with normal phenomenon, so this level comes up say, high indebted rate can be real-estate industry only inside transverse quite. From the point of safe limit, had better be a choice of course cash shedding actual strength is strong, the landed company with indebted reasonable rate, indebted rate profile reflects credit actual strength and financing actual strength, cash flows actual strength to react its sell capacity, change show ability, represent operation. Accordingly, from the point of commercial pattern, building city still is worth to expect, of estate company using asset and indebted gain capacity still is very strong, data showed this, everybody not should one-sided excessive attention is negative message.
On put together, the investment that these data belts give is focusing head logically, for instance everybody familiar to the ear can the action of detailed keeps 10 thousand gold. Say roughly, these head room look forward to are basic the side is good, come from the technical angle of the operation say, these stocks can pay close attention to continuously, scroll operates back and forth, if say to gain profit opportunity, I can suggest investor enlarge observes cycle, advertent these stocks exceed dropping opportunity.
