Civil | Triumphant wind
After half an year is being lain between when, fall accurate eventually again be born.
On September 6, the Central Bank announces to fall in the round allow 0.5 percent. In addition, increase to promote right small the supportive strength of enterprise of small, civilian battalion, again additional the urban commercial bank that runs inside area of provincial to be in only administration moves deposit reserve to lead a percent downward surely.
Unscramble according to the Central Bank, fall this to release long-term financing to make an appointment with 900 billion yuan definitely. Among them, fall to release capital to make an appointment with 800 billion yuan definitely in the round,
Two every day before, regular meeting offers the country " fulfil drop measure of standard of effective interest rate, apply in time fall generally to be mixed definitely directional fall accurate " . Just two days, this one policy is rapid be born.
The Central Bank restarts fall accurate, what signal to release? Can you bring again to building city stock market how old influence?
01
Fall accurate VS lowers interest
Fall this accurate, it is for hypostatic economy and come.
Central Bank of no less than points out in announcement, falling this is definitely " develop to support hypostatic economy, reduce social financing real cost " . In the meantime, the Central Bank emphasizes emphasize:
Continue to implement firm monetary policy, do not do flood flooding, pay attention to directional adjusting control, inside and outside of give attention to two or morethings is balanced.
The explanation falls here, fall accurate with lower interest disparate.
Fall accurate, be equivalent to reducing a bank to be in of the Central Bank " cash pledge " , let a bank more money is used put borrow. Lower interest, it is to reduce put loan standard interest rate, reduce financing cost, reduce still shift a responsibility, let the market more motivation goes outspread.
Strictly speaking, the might serious offence that lower interest falls accurate. The reason is very simple also, fall to just release a fluidity definitely, but money can go out from the bank, the market has demand, the method that the money conducts whether unobstructed, these are pendent. And after lowering interest, no matter hypostatic loan interest rate or room lend interest rate, can drop subsequently, the impact is more immediate.
In fact, add this, since 2018, our country already undertook 6 rounds falling allowing, it is directional at the beginning fall accurate, it is to fall in the round from the back accurate. Allow through falling a few times this, our country reserve ratio and developed country had differred not quite, the space that future reduces in the round further is quite limited.
Fall accurate be born, can you lower interest in the round next so?
Regular meeting offers somebody general country " lower effective interest rate " understanding is lower interest in the round, this exists to be read by accident certainly.
Lower effective interest rate, those who lean is LPR mechanism, those who lean is expedite money conduct a passageway, probably LPR interest rate can give now to move, but do not bring necessarily lower interest in the round.
02
Building city dam
Be worth what carry is, every time of all through the ages is full, can draw a same question: Can you flow into building city?
Generally speaking, water flows toward small part. Estate all through the ages is the flat that attracts current, every time is full, do not eliminate water to flow to building city from far and near.
Nevertheless, this, in fall before accurate be born, estate already was built to go up large dams, besides isolation Yu Kuansong.
This large dams, isolated not only development business, also isolated the person that buy a house.
To developing business, this " large dams " cut off by 4 high fences:
1, limitative estate is fiducial financing. 2, financing of external debt of limitative room look forward to. 3, severe check capital to violate compasses enter estate. 4, severe accuse estate development to borrow.
Credit of with a view to of these 4 policy, be just as take a drastic measure to deal with a situation, form history on the tightest building city adjusting control. (consult " this may be history on the coldest " Jin Jiuyin 10 " , how long can be development business still maintained? " )
To buying a house person, it is work along both lines.
It is the Central Bank rolls out new house to borrow interest rate mode on one hand. This interest rate is based on the LPR of double track, hypostatic economy uses a LPR, estate applies another LPR.
The room borrows interest rate to continue to abide by " LPR increases bit of rise " mode, and must not undertake hitting folding, it is good in full benefit that this eliminates estate eliminates estate besides. (consult " just, the Central Bank breaks out big move, the room borrows interest rate major key to rectify! " )
On the other hand, hasten of adjusting control of city of each district building is close, when outer extent is full, the room borrows interest rate not to fall to rise instead however.
The room of and other places of Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wen Zhou, Nanchang, Suzhou borrows interest rate to go up considerably tone, suzhou head flatlet borrows interest rate rise 25% , 2 rise 30% , first interest rate is as high as 6.03% , get go up the whole nation.
Visible, this round comfortable it is directional and comfortable, it is good to the major interest of hypostatic economy, but building city is eliminated all the time outer.
03
Estate exception
The issue came, since want pair of strong economy, so building city is eliminated outer, what should rely on to carry now brace up?
The answer is large capital construction and hypostatic economy.
With respect to the country in same day on regular meeting, "Accelerate special debt to issue " be included key agenda. The special debt here, main use is in " capital construction " .
Flow into estate to prevent capital to covert, this one policy hit an extremely marked patch:
Must not use at land reserve and estate debt of relevant domain, displacement and can commercialize run industrial project completely.
So, face the uncertainty of outside ambient and economic situation, add the whole world main country already entered comfortable period, our monetary policy won't all the time hasten is close, with comfortable release fluidity, it is big probability incident.
However, this round is comfortable, main starting point depends on hypostatic economy, investing at capital construction, and eliminate estate clearly already outer.
Accordingly, want building city adjusting control not to change direction only, short of appears those who last is comprehensive lower interest, so the possibility that building city starts considerably is not large.
04
Ultimate weapon
Want to know, estate is ultimate weapon, it is the choice under last have no alternative.
We need, not be estate overturn is in the ground, let its return to normal attribute however. What estate needs is firm, it is soft landing, it is to be space of hypostatic economy move.
So, whether can be ultimate weapon still started?
Here can pay close attention to 3 big signal mainly: Lower interest in the round, financing of room look forward to, be restricted to buy be restricted to borrow. Only these 3 levels appear comfortable evidence, the turning point that just means estate comes.
