On December 13, "2019 international situation and Chinese diplomacy seminar: Hundred years those who have no is big change bureau and diplomacy of new era China " hold in Beijing
Yesterday (13 days) midnight, just released in Sino-US already text of agreement of trade of classics of the first phase reachs identical message, the United States also just was released at 10 o'clock in the morning local time this message. The marathon negotiation of 22 months makes common people temporarily loose at a heat, what kind of development can Sino-US relation have from this? Whether to mean somewhat a favourable turn? Yesterday (13 days) those who hold " 2019 international situation and Chinese diplomacy seminar: Hundred years those who have no is big change bureau and diplomacy of new era China " on, wu Xinbai and the international relation scholar such as old Feng Ying had done negotiation to will be reached did consistently sentence beforehand. They did to the Sino-US situation henceforth at the same time analyse and grind sentence: Sino-US relation depends on on one hand the United States is right China acknowledge, also depend on on the other hand Sino-US shape a process each other, and already was in the United States forcedly to Hua Jiang two parties form consensus; Accordingly, sino-US impact is short-term inside apogee of impossible regression history, china should have done his business hard, strive to be in visible " 945 " in win oneself each growth of square actual strength.
Globalization quickens in-house become divided, nationalism of economy of American home be current and diplomacy are realistic
In hundred years those who have no is big change below the bureau, with respect to current situation of home of current United States, dean of academy of problem of Fudan University international Professor Wu Xinbai is used " economic nationalism and diplomacy are realistic " will depict.
He thinks globalization rose to urge action to the become divided of American home, and be reflected increasingly be a kind of negative effect, make the United States changes a society to populism and economic nationalism, this is reflected in, "The United States regards source of the United States' biggest unfavorable balance of trade as China, think from this so old the petty gain that came to China to occupy the United States, the United States' current economy current situation, china has due responsibility " ; And the contrast of international force, especially the constant growth of Chinese actual strength, those who let the United States worry about him hegemony more and more is feeble, change direction on diplomacy accordingly realistic, "Although the United States is in,the whole world adopts the defensive of contractive strategy on all much work, but in prevent China to challenge American hegemony to go up further, took offensive. " Wu Xinbai thinks, hard to Hua Jiang this are in the United States two parties had formed consensus.
Below such acknowledge, administrative order grammage of the government is in Telangpu " heavy model is right China relation " . October admire of American vice president bitter fleabane abstruse already clear the earth's surface is shown in the speech, reflect at 2 o'clock, the first it is reapportion Sino-US the economy between, "Cake should be segmented afresh " ; 2 o'clock is to consolidate further American hegemony position, "Pass realistic requirement " , specific how to weigh model?
The Wu Xinbai on general assembly talks " the United States in world situation change and Sino-US relation "
The United States adjusts heavy model China relation: Trade of premise change, classics is grasper, interactive means is changed
Wu Xinbai is analysed from 3 respects.
Above all, reconstitute United States is right China the premise of policy. Before Telangpu is in office, arrive from Clinton Aobama, the United States is right China the premise of policy is " the China that can accept conditionally to rise abruptly, perhaps mix rise Chinese coexist " , now is to prevent China to rise abruptly to exceed the United States and replace the United States, "This is right China a of policy new premise, interior basically formed consensus. Interior basically formed consensus..
Next, right China the grasper of policy framework is classics trade relationship, from trade war outspread to technical finance, arrive again humanitarian society each domains, adopt basically " limitation and finite unhook " . Limitation is reflected in classics trade domain, unhook body is mixed in industry of high-tech industry, IT now the main field such as national defence industry, investment. Besides heavy model, closing strung to the stage somewhat " breakthrough " . "Had looked one this year very clearly, the United States should reframe to concern to the stage frame. " Wu Xinbai is analysed, in promoting beautiful stage the relation, was in in the past exercise restraint somewhat, two this years American department of defense publishs imprint too strategic report, include Taiwan clearly as a country, the political foundation that other very much job also is in the sovereign state home that highlights Taiwan materiality, "This was broken through Sino-US since establishing diplomatic relations, both sides is mixed actively in what form on Taiwan problem basic frame. Both sides is mixed actively in what form on Taiwan problem basic frame..
The 3rd it is to reframe Sino-US the interactive means between. Since Cong Kelin pauses, the United States and Chinese contact with, main way is the contact is added be on guard, the United States thinks now " osculatory policy has failed " , want to reduce the contact that is the same as China and society now so, want to reduce the collaboration with China especially. The antagonism that should increase pair of China now and conflict sex are interactive. Be pressed through applying namely and punish measure, this body martial safety, diplomacy, economy is a lot of now domain, for instance trade war is waited a moment to multiform punish. "This kind new Sino-US the gives priority to in order to contact kind that the interactive means between had replaced the past " . Wu Xinbai points out, what dynast of portion two countries discussed to build jointly in April 2017 is Sino-US between mechanism of 4 big contacts, lay aside entirely to this year. Beautiful side argument is " to disinclination of mechanism of this kind of dialog, cannot contact for the contact, want to seek effectual dialog, did not achieve the United States before square anticipation. Did not achieve the United States before square anticipation..
American heavy model is Sino-US the relation will get handicap of face of tripartite of apiration of ability of oneself actual strength, China, ally
Pay close attention to Sino-US relation trend generally to compatriots, wu Xinbai is judged, "Short-term, the good news of level sex interest that we had seen classics trade consults; But be told for a long time from which, not hopeful. Because two parties of American already reached basic consensus, the United States wants more rich be opposite emulatively China policy. " Wu Xinbai thinks the opinion on public affairs of candidate of the Democratic Party in American general election looks recently, they can be in China problem of political system, ideological, alleged rights of man is aspirant one pace make an issue of.
"But in will for a long time look, I feel Sino-US to the trend of the relation still is process of an interactive fictile actually, not be the apiration of American one-sided. " Wu Xinbai analysed 3 handicap element, the first, is the United States willing to pay how old the uncooperative cost on competitive cost, diplomacy comes to China of keep within limits rise abruptly? Whether can they bear? "This, american interior does not have consensus. " Wu Xinbai calculated brushstroke Zhang, now American military expenditure is 800 billion dollar probably, if want to achieve the goal of China of keep within limits truly, military expenditure should turn over one times at least. The 2nd, in square fight and compromise. From classics trade the negotiation can see, this year after May, china changed strategy of strategy of classics trade negotiation, beautiful the square footing in also just was being accepted actually, this means beautiful square position also is but fictile, "Square fight jumps over aplomb in, the space that the United States just can advance is more limited. " Wu Xinbai points out further, also appeared in American interior a few new reviewing and controversy: Be opposite currently China is policy in how old the acme goal that can it achieve on degree? The 3rd, the supportive level of American ally. From the north that just held meeting agreement a peak looks, be opposite currently China the support that policy did not get main ally.
Accordingly, wu Xinbai emphasizes, look for a long time from which, sino-US relation still is modelled ceaselessly, at the process in changing. In this process, the United States is right China policy gets its ability handicap, also the handicap promotion at Chinese diplomacy ability. "Sino-US relation depends on on one hand the United States, also depend on on the other hand Sino-US and mutual shape a process. Also depend on on the other hand Sino-US and mutual shape a process..
"World economic situation " on branch field, chen Fengying talks " world economy new condition and development trend ' '
China should be searched as soon as possible replace the market, at the same time solid the business that has done oneself
Afternoon " world economic situation is looked into " on branch field, after Chen Fengying of researcher of academy of relation of Chinese contemporary international was analysing world economic situation, also emphasize " do not imagine to existence of Sino-US relation regression " , had been at present " two worlds, two standards " , china should be found as soon as possible on commerce replace the market, hold excessive time of 3 years, strive to be in " 945 " in had done oneself business.
On the seminar in the morning, the State Consul holds Foreign Minister Wang Yi concurrently to publish gist to make a speech, used more space key to talk about Sino-US relation, he points out, "This year is Sino-US establish diplomatic relations 40 years, but two countries relation encountered 40 years to come however unprecedented complex phase. " his exemple raised a lot of appearance, "The United States just interacts in classics trade, science and technology, personnel wait for a domain to be set to Chinese for no reason one after another be restricted and hit pressure, the core interest issue that involves Chinese territorial sovereign rights and ethical dignity waits to go up to atttack bring shame on in cold blood in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, human rights. Not only such, road of the regime that the United States still just uses China of all sorts of international circumstance bespatter, development and the mutual benefit that are the same as other country cooperate, buckle to China went up the accusation of all sorts of fabricated. This kind of approximately cranky behavior is belonged to in the fact in international association infrequent, damaged badly Sino-US between must come not easy each other believes basis, weakened the international credit of American oneself badly. Make Chinese people is sent more not only see these turning over clear China the dangerous intention of force backside, also sufferring the doubt of increasing country and boycott. "Wang Yi points out finally, we believe Sino-US collaboration just is the best choice of two countries from beginning to end, also be exclusive and right choice. We urge the United States to just come down calmly as soon as possible, those who establish reason " China is watched " and correct " world outlook " , in be the same as square photograph to travel, implementation does not conflict, not win-win of antagonism, mutual respect, collaboration, two when find culture of road of different regime, different development, different history jointly big countries are on this heavenly body the path of peaceful coexistence and mutual benefit win-win.
Photograph: Li Nian is photographed
