Core viewpoint
China regards the world's main agriculture as one of big countries, the output of produce is total relatively rich, but of giant population dimensions and common people standard of living rise increasingly, the average per capita that brings about our country heavy goods or partial produce has an amount considerably under level of world average per capita. From the point of the fundamental national condition of our country, main grain crop realizes autarky basically, but partial economy crop counts an import badly, behave with soja among them particularly apparent, home supplies safeguard to be affected by the international market remarkable.
Chinese mouth occupies the 1/5 of world total population about, very exuberant to the demand of soja, it is big country of the soybean production country with main whole world and consumption. 30% what China takes the whole world about to the demand of soja, 59% what import a quantity to occupy the whole world to import an amount about. But 6.44% what land area of China takes the world only, bear hard so massive resource spending, because this need imports many agriculture products.
Of our country soja external depend on sb or sth for existence is spent more than 80% , from Brazil, United States and Argentine entrance soja soja occupies entrance gross 95% the left and right sides. Regard home as the important soybean that imports one of heavy goods, basically get south, the North American supply state influence.
At present epidemic situation of global new coronal is shown spread type erupts posture, heavy calamity country announces generally " seal a city " , " lock country " , " restricted transport " , course of study of partial sea foreign enterprise also was adopted " stop production, be restricted to produce " wait for measure to perhaps announce " force majeure " affect in order to answer epidemic situation. In light of the epidemic situation development of the country such as the Brazil that basically centers from soja of our country entrance nevertheless, Argentina and United States and the influence that import to China, overall effect is relatively finite.
Epidemic situation of 1. whole world develops newest trends
1.1 at present pneumonic diagnose case of illness breaks through global new coronal 570 thousand
According to report of Xinhua News Agency, the world defends an organization report of daily epidemic situation shows, up to Beijing time 28 days 17 when, new coronal is pneumonic beyond China diagnose case of illness relatively increase 62362 before one day, achieve 489448; Case of illness dies beyond China relatively before one day increases 3156, achieve 23193. Among them new coronal of American accumulative total is pneumonic diagnose case of illness 121117, italy 70065, spain 72248, germany 48582, france 37575, iran 35408, england 17089.
1.2 worlds defend an organization to appeal each country answers the difficult when epidemic situation is overcome in all actively
The world defends heart of Tan of constituent total a secretary in charge of sth to fill in 26 days to be able to go up in G20 special summit express, pneumonic craze shows new coronal exponential level grows, international society must spread out with epidemic situation " life-and-death fights " . Guteleisi urges U.N. secretary-general 26 days G20 leader formulate " war plan " , new coronal of harmonious action beat back is pneumonic epidemic situation, help a developing country overshoot difficulty. The group declares 20 states 26 days, g20 is taking rapid and strong step, include to outstrip fund of 5 trillion dollar to global economy infuse, answer new coronal pneumonic epidemic situation and its influence.
2. China is right the demand situation of soja
30% what 2.1 China take the whole world about to the demand of soja
Chinese mouth occupies the 1/5 of world total population about, very exuberant to the demand of soja, it is big country of the soybean production country with main whole world and consumption. 30% what China takes the whole world about to the demand of soja, but 6.44% what land area of China takes the world only, bear hard so massive resource spending, because this need imports many agriculture products.
Chart 1: China is occupied to global soja consumption than
Data origin: Steel couplet data, OECD
2.2 China are depended on to soja entrance degree tall
At present resource of our country soja counts an import badly as before, in recent years soja external depend on sb or sth for existence spends whole to exceed 80% . Global soja basically produces an area to be centered in Brazil, United States, Argentina and China, because this America makes the origin land with main soja of our country entrance. In the meantime, after joining WTO from China, occurrence year after year of amount of Chinese entrance soja is climbed litre, 2017 occurrence entrance measures peak 95.53 million tons hind occurrence fall after a rise; , in global soja commerce, china imports soja amount to hold dominant position, our country imports soja amount to occupy the whole world to import soja gross about in recent years 60% the left and right sides.
Chart 2: Chinese soja external depend on sb or sth for existence is spent
Data origin: Steel couplet data, OECD
Chart 3: Whole world of Chinese soja entrance is occupied than
Data origin: Steel couplet data, OECD
Chart 4: Chinese soja imports main source country
Data origin: Steel couplet data, OECD
Data origin: Steel couplet data, OECD
3. epidemic situation imports an influence to Chinese soja
Country of origin of soja of 3.1 main entrances answers epidemic situation measure
As epidemic situation spread, abroad each country takes corresponding step, from the point of the circumstance that combs at present, main soja produces the near future of country and exit country " limitation " upgrade somewhat, but still do not calculate Yan Ke, ship to soja did not form materiality influence. But as a result of of all kinds measure come on stage and of abroad epidemic situation upgrade, the work efficiency that makes basically export soja haven drops, or form defer to harbor to soja of later period home.
Chart 8: Main source country suffers Chinese entrance soja epidemic situation affects a condition
Data origin: Public data is arranged
3.2 epidemic situation import the influence of soja to China
It is reported, brazilian mulberry holds Si Gang in the palm doubt of on one Italy passenger liner many staff member is like infection new coronal is pneumonic, supervisory bureau of Brazilian country sanitation expresses, already started lash-up plan, accept draw close the shore of one passenger liner, but the member that only medical treatment defends stranger can ascend a boat. According to the situation that my produce net monitors, brazil is main haven exercise did not appear interrupt, more because epidemic situation brings about haven shipping work efficiency,drop influence home arrives harbor date.
Will look from newest data, because portion home beans dregsed of rice March skyrocket, oil price is low wander, your home oily factory squeezes profit rich and generous, oily factory increases the strength that buy a boat mostly. The statistical data that Zhou Yi Brazil releases shows, at present Brazilian farmer sold the 2019/20 year soya bean of 70% , march heretofore Brazil day all soja export volume is 479, 200 tons, already exported 7.2 million tons of soja this month, the export that exceeded full Feburary month measures 5 million tons. Supply from the abroad that imports soybean in light of, power of domestic soja money is locked up already calm, make currently domestic beans dregses of rice the soja boat that what the market is anxious is abroad shipment whether arrive as scheduled harbor, and whether does later period bring about generation intermittence to supply because of epidemic situation not seasonable.
And experience of stockpile of domestic entrance soybean glides 6 weeks substantially continuously, current soybean stockpile only 2.102 million tons, because be short of a beans to stop,more oily works appears machine. Here special hour, enlarge home beans dregses of rice mood of panic of be in short supply, the beans dregses of rice in light of short-term a week spot price or will keep strong aspect. But from the point of overall situation, the beans dregses of rice the occasional when later period keeps high price will be finite, because epidemic situation is at present right the influence that South America and American shipment go to China is minor, but need to pay close attention to epidemic situation of afore-mentioned national later period to diffuse circumstance.
