Abstract: Multilateral time-out commissariat is exported, does commissariat produce good luck of farmer of large family China to come?
Many nations of world announced to suspend rice recently inside a variety of food outlet, immediately of international limits " commissariat nationalism " be current rises, what caused international limits to grab grain tide, for a short while commissariat price lifts successively, face grain price shoot up, the people of many countries also begins popular feeling in a state of anxiety, the Iraq that because crop of grain of chaos caused by war is extremely low,resembles had faced the problem that food supply is in short supply, inside a month of future, want to import 250 thousand tons rice about, and 1 million tons wheat will ensure domestic commissariat furnishs. After Vietnam announces to restrict rice to export, the two countries of guest of law of Indonesian He Fei nowadays also announces domestic commissariat to be in an emergency, from at present the commissariat reserve of two countries looks, current commissariat can maintain domestic people merely the demand of 3 months, among them 41% what the Vietnam rice of Philippine entrance occupies Vietnam to export rice total amount, import rice every year to be controlled in 2.7 million tons from Vietnam, did the opportunity that sees here can'ts help letting us plaint is our country farmer come?
The message that blames on the low side of Chinese grain price is on the net all the time never cease, nowadays foreign each country " commissariat nationalism " arisen, the fluidity of international grain market drops substantially, this also will produce impact to international grain price. With wheat for, mere wheaten futures price rose since the middle ten days of a month in March the range that has 20% . And go up like price of futures of paddy, soja, corn also be in 10% above. Will look from time place, in March also just is international limits epidemic situation ferments, fulminant time place.
Nevertheless epidemic situation is by no means the uniqueness element that international grain price rises, foreign a plague of locusts produces big country to commissariat India, Pakistan is having not little effect, also conclude after Chinese expert goes to Pakistan to make an on-the-spot investigation on the spot, a plague of locusts of Pakistan should be compared many what predict; Many farm may face the risk that accepts absolutely. It is epidemic situation on one hand, it is locust calamity on the other hand, though these two elements had not been too big menace to our country, but current world belongs to community of destiny of a whole world, the exit of international commissariat time-out that because afore-mentioned elements are brought about,is the near future only, may bring about what domestic people is born vivid quality to drop, even partial country still agrees favour face starving risk, if calamity goes down continuously, do not know alive bound range occurs the miserable situation of what Bei intense really.
Our country is an agricultural big country likewise, from some closer year grain production situation looks, our country itself is the potential risk of nonexistent food crisis. Last year our country commissariat always produces 660 million tons, wheaten, paddy, corn always produces world of crouch of more old hero the first. Nevertheless, our country still is world commissariat big country of the first entrance, import of grain of annual our country was as high as 130 million tons last year, include the soya bean that has 88 million tons among them of course. This also sees structure of supply of our country food is put in serious lopsided sex actually. And the self-sufficient rate of such as wheat, paddy had realized 95% above. So where is good luck of farmer of the our country below this kind of circumstance?
Look from the analysis above, foreign commissariat is bigger to home market interference is soja actually, like wheaten, paddy, corn the entrance gross of these a few kinds of crop also does not cross many tons 1000, the import volume of this limits forms how big impact to grain price of home. And soja is apparently different, domestic soja produces weakness, year soja produces gross to be controlled in 14 million tons roughly, gross of demand of year home soja is as high as 110 million tons, if do not rely on abroad to import, supply of oil of soybean of common people of domestic aquaculture, country is afraid can face severe shortage.
Science is promoted farming think, below this kind of circumstance, soja price is in hopeful breakthrough is new this year tall, of everybody or the psychological preparation with should have proper, skin of beans of the bean sprouts that resembles bean products this year, bean curd is afraid can have certain range rise; And domestic common people can enlarge soja to grow an area this year, additional though wheaten, paddy, corn though domestic self-sufficient rate is higher, do not cross those who link price of international limits grain to rise, domestic big probability also can appear the raising of little scope. To planting for the common people of grain, should can add close a bit!
