Author | Feline elder brother
Origin | Big cat finance and economics
01
Feel the whole world must be no good unbearably recently, mix because of epidemic situation not only the stock market, because,return commissariat.
Recently, the state that announces commissariat exports a ban is a bit much:
● Vietnam, the 3rd big paddy of world exports a nation, prohibit rice exit;
● Russia, the biggest Xiaomai exports a nation, suggest limitation exports wheat;
● Kazakstan Si Tan, the 2nd big flour of world exports a nation, to including flour, potato, carrot inside 11 kinds of produce execute limitative exit;
● Thailand, announce the egg exports a ban;
● Saierweiya, announce to suspend exporting the produce such as sunflower seed oil;
● India, the paddy rice with the greatest whole world exports a nation, rice exit because " seal a country " and be immersed in backwater;
·· of · of · · ·
This, the country with insufficient commissariat was dumbfounded:
Iraq is in an emergency, need imports 10 thousand tons of about a hundred wheat and many tons 20 rice, two countries of guest of law of Indonesian He Fei also announces barn to be in an emergency, weigh barn store the quantity can last 3 months at most.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations also issued serious warning: Epidemic situation may cause food crisis, 4, will appear in May worst state.
This comes, be done a lot of Chinese are unbearably also, is our food enough? Should buy store up of the face that nod rice to wear more? Can extremely exasperate case appear?
First sober, make clear the cause and effect of Hunan problem, again anxious not late.
02
2020 is really with " Tartarean mode " begin.
Say commissariat is panicky, also a reason does not cause epidemic situation.
● 1, large-scale last year does fulminant desert locust still remember?
Spread to Pakistan, India all the way from Arabia peninsula, the point that reachs closes basically absolutely, light is Kenya has land of nearly 70000 hectare stricken be hit by a natural adversity, the grain ration of 13 million person became big question.
● 2, is a locust enough?
The meadow has an insatiable desire for noctuid, the harm that this insect brings is greater.
It is in originally America activity, entered Africa 2016, erupted centrally in Africa 2017, diffused 2018 India, Bengal, sri lanka, Burmese, Thailand, 2019, it comes to China.
This " one moth " gnaw feed corn and paddy, and have natural enemy hardly.
The loss that it caused to the corn of 12 Africa country 2018 amounts to 17.7 million tons;
2019 is to cause Asian Africa more the reduction of output of many areas 20%-70% .
Not small also to our harm, at present 26 provinces city has its figure, 600 thousand mus are achieved in the area seeing bug of and other places of Yunnan, Sichuan, was last year 90 times of the corresponding period, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts 100 million mus or so to the meadow has an insatiable desire for noctuid happening area this year.
● 3, this is insufficient still, a lot of experts are discussing ell Ni Nuo now, and OK and affirmatory is, very big 2020 probability can be a high temperature year, the whole world will still experience unusual high temperature more, especially intertropical area.
As to home, last week 5, official of irrigation works ministry says, "Produce a cataclysm probably this year " ...
● 4, of course, still have the epidemic situation that everybody cares.
Feburary when, the fowl-run of area of a lot of epidemic situation is in bury alive chickling, because seal road feed carry not to come in, chicken also carries do not go out, be forced to be handled. Epidemic situation whole world diffuses now, very big to grain production influence.
India is the big client of Chinese fertilizer industry, in the chemical fertilizer that we export, the urea of 48% , phosphate fertilizer of 36% was bought by India, this year, india postponed plan of chemical fertilizer invite public bidding, but farming season differs person, delay fertilization very likely so, affect grain crop directly, said in front, india is the whole world rice of the biggest paddy exports a nation.
Collect of so much element together, the country that commissariat angst feels strong is sure block is exported, be ready for any eventuality.
That issue came, big to our influence?
03
We do not have the crisis feeling of meal of be on short commons completely now, actually you should think carefully want, this namely recently the thing of 30 the coming year, it is the biggest the people's livelihood of common people not only, also be the topic for discussion with the biggest country, a commissariat history is national history, we can treat elder first people how to worry about for commissariat.
● 1, after World War II wins, although be a victorious nation, but Chinese country is very pitiful still at that time, especially 1948, grain price rises one day many times, and cannot buy. Below have to circumstance, the national government at that time accepted American flour to help, nevertheless at that time, eating not to eat American flour is a political manner, also be an integrity problem, the Zhu Ziqing of your work home that everybody knows, it is the delegate that refus feeds American flour, die because of serious gastric perforation finally.
● 2, after 1949, we do not buy grain, begin wholesale food outlet instead, sold 1.22 million tons 1950, sold 2 million tons 1951, sold so much for what?
Because do not have money, compare between the country at that time those who go all out is not agriculture, it is industry, but the investment of dry industry, our poor, then chatelaine of pants of tighten of the people of the whole country sold commissariat to buy a machine, chen Yun says the atmosphere that awaits in those days, "Oneself eat less some, export more as far as possible " , no matter good year is hungry, the country is right commissariat state monopoly for purchase and marketing, take commissariat to sell fund, this system, arrived all the time 90 time just abolish.
● 3, nevertheless so do also have a few problems, for instance 1959-1961 year.
Domestic home eats not quite, all sorts of " acting food " begin to be popular, acting food still is civilian wisdom really, all can the blame commissariat of cram oneself with food kind the thing was covered, include but not root of bark of be confined to, tree, potherb, chlorella.
Does insecurity arrive at that time what degree? In May 1960, beijing Tianjin remnant puts an amount 4 days, shanghai remnant quantity of 2 days.
● 4, be forced to buy at that time so help grain.
Can await international environment in those days too dangerous, stand facing each other of two large a group of people of same interest, the little younger brother that follows our be on speaking terms also cry piteously for food, count on us to relieve. The moment of truth, "Bethune " came.
At that time bumper harvest of Canadian in successive years, commissariat sells more do not go out, the farmer does not have income to condemn a woman continuously, be badly in need of selling grain to change now! But their ally is awaited in those days,also be food is much do not eat, then Canadian takes aim went up China.
We also want to buy very much, but do not have money.
Then Canadian Ministry of Agriculture grows Alvin Hanmierdu to run, the government that impose a state is done protect, from Canadian bank application loan lets China buy grain, still allow instalment.
This approves commissariat, it is to help really.
● 5, arrived during 60-70 time, we do not buy grain again, be what?
The highest directive at that time is, "Eat less, do not eat entrance food " , eat to belong to a course to have a problem into grain ration, import extent pelter so. These 10 years past, enter the right path at long last, especially after 1978, grain crop rocket, at that time, a lot of talents had can satiate feeling.
But it is very strict that grain esophagus accuses to return, the person with old age knows food coupon, this is in at that time is the hard currency as the RMB.
● 6, everybody can be satiate after 1978 meal, is the action of commissariat progressively desalt? Also be no good.
Actually in a long time, we are becoming commissariat financial product, use a profit!
Inchoate foreign currency, it is more very so come, say artful also, our rice much wheat is little, but international grain price is right rice expensive wheat is cheap, differred 35% , why doesn't this benefit difference earn?
Effect is very distinct, arrived 1971 1976, so average sells piece, food stock increased 9.36 million tons, returned conveniently to earn 727 million dollar. 70 time, a large sum of a huge sum of money.
● 7, again later, day more and more feel well, have a meal unchallenged, commissariat became profitable tool, the first pail of gold of a lot of people comes from commissariat, how to tell?
Commissariat has two prices at that time, one is the price that the country plans as a whole, one is market price case, this is " price double track is made " level, a form of a address for an official or rich man most make money, those who lean is difference having price. Everybody's familiar Wang Shi, the brushstroke big money in life is corn of buy in and sell at a profit, relied on this to earn many yuan 40, should know person of that time majority a monthly wages just a few yuan.
04
Review the history, you also see, to commissariat, we are bought occasionally sell occasionally, core wants justice, ensure everybody has a meal to eat namely, make money incidentally.
Resemble recently these year, we are all the time give priority to in order to buy, became the commissariat with the greatest whole world to buy the home all the way, is the farmer that is us too lazy be willing cultivate land?
The youth does not want really farm, because income is too little, hardship may be not caught up with one year a month sends express in the city, farmland also is decreasing all the time, remain 2.023 billion mus only now, so a lot of people are being told " the red line of 1.8 billion mus of farmland must be defended " , does the ground go which?
Some returns nature, retreat return n cultivated land forest careless still;
Some is built by go off with room.
Is farm what income little? Because the foreigner is too able, felt embarrassed what the price presses to be not bought.
Resemble soja, to harbor cost just 3400, the soja of our this locality buys price even 3500-3700 yuan, carry arrives after southern haven have to 3800-4000, a bit advantage does not have the price.
Still have wheat, adding after imposing 25% custom duty, wheaten to harbor cost just 2500 yuan every tons, this locality wheat buys the price to be in 2300-2500 yuan, what quality has not imported is good.
Because of these reasons, these year we are being bought all the time buy.
The family was not exported now, can you get afraid hungry gut?
Analyse meticulously, we can reach a good news, a bad news.
05
First message of come to an agreement or understanding, we with 3 big staple food grain -- rice, wheat and soja are exemple.
● 1, see rice first.
From this graph you can see, some years of exit is much, some years of entrance is much. 2019 is an inflection point, we imported 2.55 million tons, exported 2.74 million tons, the entrance begins under exit.
What we import is main have two kinds:
One kind is he cannot be planted high-end rice, basically use contented take money, for instance Thailand aromatic rice and Japan jump over smooth rice.
Another kind can count basically raw material, enter buccal rice from Vietnam like us, majority is to use those who become fodder! Still having a few is to add the broken rice of polished long-grained nonglutinous rice that uses labour gourmet powder, ground rice, gross is not big also, we imported Vietnam rice 2019 480 thousand tons, for since 2011 lowermost level, 1-2 month imports rice from Vietnam this year only 30 thousand tons.
So, even if do not buy rice from Vietnam, influence also very won't big.
● 2, we see wheat again.
These year of our wheat the entrance also is to have add have decrease:
If see detail, you can discover, entrance wheat is given priority to with a few specific breed, because everybody loves eating bread,these things need a kind of raw material -- tall muscle flour, the wheaten variety that home grows still cannot satisfy requirement, entrance amount is very so large.
Main source is Si Tan of Canada, Kazakstan, Australia and United States. Kazakstan Si Tan had published export ban, nevertheless they are occupied compare and not quite, still not as good as the half of old friend Canada, the import that wants Canada only can assure, won't get basically too much influence.
● 3, actually we tell commissariat to import big country, what basically tell is soja.
These year import volume rises sharply almost:
Do we import so much soja to do what?
Basically use oil expression, and the beans dregses of rice to basically be used feed a swine, we are the world the biggest country that raise a pig, also be the biggest pork uses up a country, soja of natural need so much does safeguard.
At present of soja sell the home to include -- Brazil, United States, Argentine, fortunately these a few countries did not release soja to export a ban, it is epidemic situation only tremendous to carrying cost to affect, the price that so the beans dregses of rice had risen to exceed 10% inside a month, this still may be not blocked.
06
View these your meeting discovery, food crisis won't appear basically, especially our commissariat reserve ratio has exceeded 80% , this compares the world grain farming organization sets 17% , the safe red line of 18% but tall many, that is to say, even if grain is not had this year,close, the entrance also was done not have, put food at present enough also the people of the whole country takes 10 months.
But the bad news also is some.
Grain reduction in production is big probability incident this year, main grain breed rises in price anticipate cannot have held back, from futures product go situation can see this trend.
As a whole -- need not too panicky, commissariat is not a problem, your purse just is a problem.
Solution there is what? Take a place less, conveniently reduces weight.
