[civil / observer net Yin Zhe] break a contact can have, but discharge fine line please.
Late on June 1, the Central Bank announces to enlarge metaphase appropriately leasehold advantage (MLF) assure taste limits, the many sided that caused the market is unscrambled. Somebody is unscrambled to turn on the water with new QE, also somebody is unscrambled to bond takes seriously what break a contact had caused the Central Bank highly again and again this year, to avoid bond confused, the Central Bank moves formally.
5 days, " negotiable securities daily " if cite analyses a personage, point out, central Bank this action will conduce to avoid credit debt risk to expand to affect hypostatic economy financing, alleviation civilian look forward to squeezes an effect, it is right in the center of " reduce industry financing cost " policy echo.
Frequency of bond beak a contract shows
2018, debt city again and again a clap of thunder. Observer net inquires money collects discovery of big data terminal, up to on June 4, already had 22 bond occurrence beak a contract.
" Shanghai negotiable securities signs up for " the report said on May 25, the incident of credit debt break a contact that the near future appears has common feature to also have respective characteristic already:
Common feature basically is at present market liquidity is in close balance position, and the extreme that civilian battalion enterprise is in capital catenary, fight risk ability to lose, the effect that is tightened by fluidity hasten is more apparent.
After endowment canal new rule comes on stage, the commercial bank is turning into the process inside the watch in the asset outside experiencing a watch, the credit that is being kept in certain level in this process is contractive, can abort to cash of civilian look forward to gave birth to greater pressure. Specific for, the civilian battalion company that should see the near future produces credit beak a contract can say each have each misfortune, oneself is put in a few problems.
Lever of some itself finance affairs are exorbitant, invest a style external too radical; Some debt structures are unreasonable; Some did not manage the debt time limit of good business, appeared the phenomenon that bond, debt expires centrally; Still having a few is industry standard carry is made showed an issue.
Look from this angle, the phenomenon of break a contact of debt of credit of civilian battalion company that produces at present, should saying is the risk that tightens the big environment of the balance to bring about individual business in integral fluidity is exposed, do not put in systematization risk.
Accordingly, does sina finance academy publish a problem to be " debt calamity emersion? The Central Bank " move " : Break a contact can have but discharge fine line please " (next weighing: " discharge fine line " ) the article says:
This action (enlarge MLF to assure appropriately taste limits) it is the Central Bank is fulfilled more " ensure do not appear systematization banking venture " bottom line, will stablize panic of credit debt market, conduce to restore bond function of direct be in harmony.
In other words, breaking rigid cash today, buyer is willing to be the interest income with higher a bit no longer and the risk that assumes break a contact, this brings about a large number of capital to emerge to national debt the market such as grade of high perhaps honor.
This shows, central Bank this action guides capital to turn to high grade enterprise and industry of purpose, because credit debt market is panicky,avoid them and be killed by the fault.
Yield become divided shows clue
Observer net notices, credit debt expires yield become divided, enlarge MLF to assure for the Central Bank taste limits to bury next foreshadowing.
According to the adjustment of the Central Bank, new bring into MLF to assure those who taste limits have: Do not mix under the small small company of AA class, green " 3 farming " financial bond, credit of company of form of AA+ , AA kind bond (preferential accept the bond that involves economy of small small company, green) , loan of high grade small small company and green borrow money.
Graph source: Northeast negotiable securities
And the first do poineering work to was released on June 2 grind the newspaper says, the near future, debt of credit of class of AA- , AA expires yield goes up rapid.
In other words, in small the financing environment of civilian battalion enterprise sufferred more concussion, debt of low level credit faces the situation of unmanned make inquires.
Graph source: The first do poineering work
By on the graph can discover, ferment as credit risk, difference of interest of debt of credit of class of AA- , AA expands ceaselessly; Debt of AAA class credit expires yield concussion be issued to lower levels, with before both photograph is compared, also appear to split up apparently. (observer net notes: Credit debt expires yield and risk show direct ratio to concern)
Issue a structure to look from credit debt, the first poineering statistic says, 30% what AAA class bond occupies post a letter of place of civilian battalion company to use debt only, so debt of low level credit of 2 class yield go up quickly to in small impact of civilian look forward to is bigger.
This certificate business earlies childhood:
Spend in loan specified amount when tightening up, the loan specified amount of small small company is spent be squashed more easily. Total loan remaining sum is added since this year fast drop 0.4% , and its are small small company loan is added fast drop 2.1% , the bank when be being mirrorred in credit to tighten up more apt borrows fund Xiang Dazhong enterprise, make channel of financing of small small company more tighten up.
Accordingly, MLF assures the debt of of all kinds credit that tastes limits to bring into AA above and loan of high grade small small company, can alleviate on certain level two kinds of afore-mentioned problems.
With straight a few whiter word says: Put a person's mind to buy these bond! The Central Bank gives you " reveal all the details " .
Northeast negotiable securities also indicates approval to afore-mentioned viewpoints.
Before this, MLF assures article for credence of class of debt of debt of finance of sex of ticket of national debt, center, policy, local government, AAA debt, range is narrower.
This certificate business points out:
After enlarging limits, the commercial bank is OK the asset limits of impawn expands, the to debt of credit of class of AA+ , AA fluidity excessive price on certain level is favorable.
Be worth what carry is, " China Daily " the word of personage of know the inside story of 1 day of cite says, hair change appoint drafting the specific opinion that reduces cost of financing of small small company and measure jointly with relevant section and orgnaization. Specific release time to still need to send change appoint the decision after waiting for branch and enterprise of orgnaization He Xiaowei to discuss.
Northeast negotiable securities is commented on, afore-mentioned messages show the governmental care to difficult question of hypostatic economy financing:
"Close credence " below pattern, tall look forward to of risk of break a contact, partial bank is right small the attitude that the domain that the government such as small, green hopes finance supports showed discretion.
And whether to change direction to monetary policy, the viewpoint that silver-colored international gives out in is: NO.
This orgnaization thinks:
This policy caliber adjusts what do not involve increment fund to put in. . . Money market liquidity is relatively ample since this year, and the insecurity of hypostatic fluidity, basically be advanced of lever continuously with the bank relative to finite line of credit and finance about.
Additional, the Central Bank is clear also in announcement of 1 day: the monetary policy that continues to carry out dovish neutral, maintain liquidity reasonable stability, guide monetary credit and social financing dimensions to grow smoothly moderately, for high quality reform of development and sex of supply side structure builds appropriate monetary banking environment.
"Not be to want purify lever, should let lever have however but durative "
National finance and development lab director, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Li Yang of former assistant dean. Data chart
"Lever itself is the characteristic that modern economy runs. Compared with smallholder economy, compared with natural economy for, with lever the operation affirms advanced much. So our target is not to want purify lever, should let lever have however but durative " .
On May 24, li Yang of former assistant dean is in national finance and development lab director, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences " go of lever go bankrupt law thinking " express on forum.
He thinks, should have hit with 3 years of time in the center of be on guard dissolve battle of significant risk assault fortified positions, the key is to prevent control financial venture. Chairman of be used to points out the fountainhead of financial venture depends on tall lever.
Additional, he is mentioned designedly, should " spend a few money to handle bad assets " :
The set at company leverage is concerned in company finance theory, enterprising is active successful company often can have company operation through tall lever;
Look in us, the biggest question of lever is among them those parts that form bad assets, that part is bad it is dead that asset place is in debt correspondingly indebted, cannot return forever, it is the share that we should treat truly;
If do not have bad assets, leverage is a few higher very good also, purchase and sale is two flourishing, leasehold two flourishing, the product production with constant in a steady stream comes out, returned this, returned breath, continue to borrow again borrow two flourishing;
But if be in debt,formed bad assets, that question is big, won't circulate, the problem also is to go out here.
The article mentions before this " discharge fine line " also gave out similar view:
Firm lever is not represented do not go lever, it is to want local go lever, structural sex goes lever;
Without benefit, without the department that cash flows, should go lever. This kind of high cost such as steely, coal can be for instance high the course of study of heavy chemical industry such as pollution, produce can serious superfluous, be out of pocket of partial company occurrence go into operation, not start working more the condition of be in a dilemma of be out of pocket, the regular expenditure that must hold a company through many financing and repay dead horse, after a bit similar individual borrows credit card raise card in order to get stuck;
This kind of company should go sturdily lever, cannot allow to be continued to waste the market by them this limited fund, should sturdy reform or fall into disuse.
Interesting is, this article still uses straight the bottom line that white word explained the Central Bank: Break a contact can have, the enterprise is OK also " dead " one batch, but discharge fine line please.
