Italy flies off " black swan " , sino-US trade flames of war is lighted again, rising market one disaster after another, envelop again on the haze of the crisis. . .
The moment of truth of crossroad is in in global economy, how to conserve does oneself fortune spare loot?
01
Black on Wednesday! The behind the curtain shoves a hand truly is. . .
Index of the card on yesterday fell 79.02 a little bit greatly, drop 2.53% , nearly 200 drop together, 3000 neat drop!
Show one night returned the level October 2016, 5.3, a much a fete.
5.3 calamity, the reason no more than that gives out on market is two:
One, Italy debt double kill cause domino effect.
Suffer " political field big convulsion " influence, italy debt double kill, regard euro area as system of the 3rd old economy, its banking crisis affects whole and Euramerican stock market. As the bug following fart of the US stock, a also fail escape by the skin of one's teeth.
2, special wolf-skin fall out, grey resume combustion of Sino-US commerce die in the last ditch.
The sweet and enunciative ability of 5.2 was less than 10 days in the past, american Department of Commerce announces the high-tech goods that wants 50 billion dollar of pair of China imposes the custom duty of 25% suddenly, and will be in announced inventory on June 15.
This Sino-US thinking that trade war negotiation ends, can ground of everyone is happy came to an end, did not think of however special wolf-skin fall out is even faster than turning over a book.
Periphery interest empty news erupts centrally, global capitalism market avoids danger mood can warm up of course.
Additional, rocket girl thinks epicycle A a calamity and recent RMB steep fall, fund flee to other place is relative also.
Because the dollar is strong,go tall, on May 30, valence reduces 196 base point again among exchange rate of RMB add dollar, close at 6.4207 yuan, implementation 5 drop repeatedly.
RMB add dollar drops not terrible, the most terrible is, the giant vacuum covering interest that capital runs away and cannot fold.
Yesterday, dollar index touchs for a time 95 col, achieve nearly 6 half moon new tall. Meanwhile, photograph comparing has taken yield of debt of 10 years of period beauty by last year tall tens of BP.
So, no matter be Italian political situation flabby, battle of Sino-US still sweater is rearview mirror, the prime cause that rocket girl thinks stock market of epicycle whole world steeps fall is:
Beautiful couplet store add breath anticipate warm up, dollar performance is driving, mix in the giant vacuum that cover interest of pair of native debt crises be anxious to fall, multilateral investor flocks the bosom that leaves the stock market, move avoids to bond market in an attempt to danger.
02
Beautiful couplet store butcher's knife is approached, rising market again bear pressure
From 2016 the end of the year begins, the whole world is entered new round of dollar adds breath cycle, up to now till, beautiful couplet store altogether is added ceased 6 times.
Beautiful couplet store add breath, it is the process that a Wen Shui boils frog, these " frog " just began not to feel very hot, beautiful couplet store again " add fire slowly " , when they feel very hot, be afraid when be late already.
And these frog, those who point to is high indebted, high deficit, tall foamy " 3 tall " country, had entered the gules area of high danger at present, a few " frog " begin the most urgent situation.
Suffer the element effect such as the United States of international capital circumfluence that strong dollar causes the near future, rising market be the first to be affected:
Argentine MERV index arrived in Feburary the biggest drop amount to 25% ;
In April since the middle ten days of a month, pakistan card drags strange index the biggest drop exceed 10% ;
Since April, index of Vietnam Hu Zhiming falls greatly exceed 20% ;
Since May, index of IBOVESPA of Brazilian emperor Paul steeps fall 12.5% , mexican MXX shows the index falls greatly exceed 7% , slope put together points to rich Shi Jilong drop 5% .
Hong Kong also enters urgent state, hongkong dollar devalues crisis rise from all directions, exchange rate of dollar add Hongkong dollar touchs for many times just assure infirmly, up to on April 19, gold provides bureau skill 19 times, be bungled 51.3 billion protect dish.
And the data May 25 shows, overall index of city of Hong Kong building, no matter large, medium or small unit, all fronts drops.
Large unit a week steeped fall 3.21% , what monthly data has 2.09% is tremendous fall! If maintain such fall speed, hong Kong large unit will drop this year 22.38% !
If city of Hong Kong building is added as the dollar breath take the lead in dying dish, will bring dangerous demonstrative sex effect to outback building city so.
And the Chinese inland that realizes seriousness of a got-up affair, be in early began icebound estate market last year, aspic associate with is easy, go again actively lever, thorn bubble, but face the suction with beautiful powerful younger brother Jin Lang is wet, whether escape one disaster, sealed still.
OK and affirmative is, if beautiful couplet store continue " add fire " , so regular meeting has more " frog " flat because of can'ting bear heavy burden.
And beautiful couplet store added in June breath is OK saying is to be without be concerned about, this means the raise on dollar index, the RMB devalues anticipate strengthen, not only city of benefit empty building, a Xiong Fu fears again open.
Oil price is strong the dollar is strong, the United States again mode of open Lu abb, crisis of the devaluation of the country such as Italy, Argentine, Venezuela, economy, just begin, new round monetary war has begun.
03
How to conserve does oneself fortune spare loot?
Same, pass very comfortably in the day that turned on the water a few years greatly in the past we, beautiful now couplet store " butcher's knife " approaching, those who face is condition of be in a dilemma:
Turn on the water imply debt is more, below the thrust of periphery market, prospective interest cost is higher, be forced to add breath can be overcome;
And do not turn on the water mean asset bubble the likelihood is very acuteness drop, want to restrict fluidity with all sorts of methods so.
Because this can discover, our monetary policy ases if now wander to go up in steel wire, it is to raise MLF at the same time (metaphase is leasehold and convenience) and go against counter-purchase interest rate to change addition breath tightens up fluidity, it is to fall at the same time accurate, PSL coverts turn on the water, change a tool to be added with adjusting control money definitely through all sorts of essence fast.
But. . . Economic rule is iron rule, long-term and regular meeting has effect.
The rise as beautiful debt yield and Sino-US benefit shrink poorly narrow, the RMB devalues will be long-term trend, and the RMB asset of high indebted rate, will be faced with at any time by Qing Dynasty dish risk.
