"Do not put all eggs in same in basket " -- everybody has listened to most propbably this old saying, show dispersive investment can reduce a risk normally. But, in increasing close currency market, this " investment diversity " whether is the figure of speech significant?
Balance investment combines theory
Add fine investment combination evenly, decrease right onefold the dependence that increases close money capital -- the intuition that this is investor. Your investment combination may compare a balance, resemble laying a plan for instance such:
Or, your adding close money to invest combination is such:
Combine theory according to contemporary investment, choose fixed readjust investment to allocate, can run a risk and realize the biggest redound. Through maths consideration is sought allocate strategy, balance risk of be issued to lower levels, at the same time utmost increases profit, considering the market incident of each likelihood happening, wait like risk of shortage of famine, energy, war. But ask an attention, what talk about here is the investment that is kept in converse correlation in the hold in all sorts of industries.
For example, you are likely at the same time hold oil is mixed aviation stock. Be like occurrence oil crisis, these two kinds maintain a can mutual balance. Oil price rises, airline profit be issued to lower levels. But add combination of close money product to you can achieve this kind of result?
Burgeoning industry cloths cover second law
Add close money to still be in new student phase, belong to " burgeoning technology " the single field below the category. These technologies are returned without confirming, adding close money that is to say is not mature industry. And such industry often is applied to " power second law " -- the small number of people is become win the home greatly, the expression of the others flatly, can be washed out even. Present before adding close coin industry to be similar to actually the inchoate development of burgeoning science and technology. Next graphs are burgeoning science and technology the true condition before venture capital investment and angel capital participate in IPO:
If pursue, we can see, before 10 alone total market prise of horny animal company amounts to 184 billion dollar, 46% what occupy total market prise of burgeoning science and technology. And the company total market prise of 11-70 name 180 billion dollar, occupy 45% . This is " power second law " , a few company is become win the home greatly. Normally, wind casts a company to be able to choose the company of burgeoning science and technology with a few big potential to have investment, if can pitch on a few, even of a future alone horny animal company, the huge profit that brings from this can offset the loss that other failure tries.
Investment combines example analysis
Recently, on Reddit forum, an user undertook investment sets an experiment adding close money, release experimental result. April, he 10 thousand NZD (New Zealand yuan) before be opposite 50 add close money to have investment, showed the case after a month next.
From below this piece of form, we can see, these 50 kinds add close money main the whole line waves red (deficit) , only ZIL, ZRX, AE, ONT added close money 4 times this to come true to growing. This investment combines the integral earnings April is: Deficit 26.75% .
This simple test makes clear, the kind that imposes close money apt to close with positive is mobile. Accordingly, be in short-term inside, diversification investment combination appears the sense is not great.
In market of traditional paper currency issued by the reactionary KMT government from 1935 onwards, "Diversity " the wave motion that strategy is used in balance investor combination, increase accrual chance through coming to developing property. Knowing asset is how of mutual correlation, this is the premise that undertakes effective diversity invests. Investor can use correlation coefficient to measure pair of strong effect between different asset.
A of correlation coefficient simple case is capital fund ABC and XYZ have comparative. If be below same situation, ABC grows 10 ％ , XYZ drops 10 ％ , both and complete negative closes. So, they belong to the perfect combination of diversity. For example the oil that we just mention with aviation.
In increasing close currency market, bit money remains value of currency of all other mountain fastness to walk along the leading sheep of situation. Accordingly, the wisdom that diversity invests this one tradition to trade appears not quite apply to increase close money investment.
Of course, there were a lot of users to express different point of view on Reddit forum:
① . "This is exponential fund essentially. In the stock, this is the safest investment means, and the likelihood also is applied to add close money. And the likelihood also is applied to add close money..
② . "You have the basket of a diversity, will for a long time look should be profitable, the deficit inside a month 30 ％ , this is encircled in money is very normal phenomenon. This is encircled in money is very normal phenomenon..
③ . "Cast 50 kinds to add close money too dispersive. Best can from which a few more handpick, plant to certain money next increase chip. Plant to certain money next increase chip..
④ . "You just have this test after adding close money market prise to rise to make an appointment with 80 ％ , meet of course disappointed. . . . . . If you are by March,buy, the result can differ completely. The result can differ completely..
⑤ . "This resembles was to invest a loss the joint fund of 26 ％ , quite bad. Quite bad..
⑥ . "Adding close money can not be joint fund. Joint fund loss 26 ％ , you can seek fund manager judge which is right. Here, OK without the person blame, have us only this group of people watch the scene of bustle not to disrelish a thing big. Have us only this group of people watch the scene of bustle not to disrelish a thing big..
⑦ . "Deficit 26 ％ , this result is right. Want to know, calculate from January case, money of some mountain fastness already already loss the value of 90 ％ . Money of some mountain fastness already already loss the value of 90 ％ ..
Add fine investment to show positive to close
Nevertheless, what we should emphasize is -- the capital that this Reddit user will invest to differ in 50 dispersedly, a month when be, the asset that implementation rises has 4 only, produce dropping asset to have 46 -- investment of this kind of diversification did not have balance effect. In this investment combination, only 8 ％ go against force growth, and the trend of be issued to lower levels that the asset of 92 ％ drives with bit money shows the rest positive correlation is.
2017, in bit money cruel during going, bit currency rises about 200 ％ , the value of all mainstream money also follows other to rise considerably. According to the data of CoinMarketCap, ETH goes up a more than 5000 ％ , XRP goes up a 4000 ％ , LTC goes up a 4000 ％ etc. At the beginning of 2018, the market turns for Xiong Fu, bit currency loss the value of half above. Afore-mentioned all mainstream money also encounter different level basically glide.
Accordingly, from the historical performance that adds close money and afore-mentioned experiment, we can reach a conclusion: The price that increases close money and bit money each appears high positive to close as before. Because add the essence that the high fluctuation of close money domain and mood change, can appear really exceptional circumstance, but go against in market of integral be expected to fall situation and go up add close money few, this kind goes against force growth to often contain fluky element, pair of strong steps that can not serve as diversity.
So, add close investor what to kind of strategy should choose? Say simply, we can put all eggs in a basket -- the choice values a few times a few, of different application domain add close money to have investment, next HODL, prospective whole accrual may excel chooses a large number of money to plant undertake net type invests dispersedly.
