Indian stock market is new the other one side of tall backside: Strong dollar affects nowhere to be absent, the stock market, commodity suffers embroil; Tecent money newspaper attacks street backside or it is medium without exception overmeasure value times changes his political stand, IPO investment is not choice of near future advisability.
The theme of the market appears recently even if, the dollar is very strong!
In the meantime, rising market is very savage, this need not give uncecessary details, major nation exchange rate bear pressure, the stock market bear pressure. Of course, also have market performance some " counter a day " :
Indian market represents an index: Bombay 30 sensitive indexes, still came actually Shi Shangxin is tall, then, a lie again the gun is taken rinse. But, we still need to notice other one side of the thing, that is the exchange rate circumstance of Indian rupee:
Indian rupee also achieves a Shi Shangxin to dollar exchange rate low, indian rupee these a few years devalue course also is especially feral, this feature also has been carried when I introduced Indian stock market in the past.
And what the foreign exchange reserve of market of near future India also drops is fierce, of adumbrative Indian rupee devalue process won't easily brake.
So the Indian theme ETF of American market, no matter be blue,prepare kind INDA, still consume kind INCO, the expression this year also is done not have actually so magical, everybody also should notice the near future is not thought by public opinion clamour Indian market appeared really earthshaking great opportunity. Of course, in rising market, indian market relies on the market of chart for a long time still relatively, you should cast the configuration that this market is about to last, still hopeful obtains good gains.
And from the point of the history, the near future everybody feels very the dollar of in a extremely dangerous state churns world situation, had not arrived actually most the state of in a extremely dangerous state. " wall street daily " listed past in country of the G20 in 10 years, 52 opposite dollar is accumulated inside week devalue a list of names posted up of the most miserable money is odd, turkey lira near future drops this situation rank the 2nd, the most miserable still is 2014 oil price steeps fall medium Russia ruble devalues, and more miserable situation happens at 08 arrive during crisis of 9 annuity be in harmony, when market of that whole world is turbulent, after the United States experienced the first concussion, become asset port slowly however.
So, in this season, if you have avoid danger demand, so suggest with avoiding related the dollar risk capital is given priority to, for instance itself of beautiful debt, dollar. Also need to notice at the same time, alleged avoid risk capital is not meant do not drop, perhaps show an effect immediately when market in a extremely dangerous state, a lot of moment it is more antagonism drops and rebound more quickly at the appointed time, cushion is brought before the market is walked out of from the crisis for you, the capital that protects you anabiosises for the market stay " bullet " .
And from dollar index ETF: In light of UUP, its history go up to be in bit higher namely in November 2008, and before this mixed 2015 there also was relatively high point 2016, once also caused rising market concussion, to investor, UUP also is at present this tendency of the market falls, better than gold assets avoid dangerous section is provided.
And when the dollar strong, economy of each big rising market puts delay, be immersed in tired out even when, of another apparent damage board piece it is commodity of course, can called commodity Indian summer 2017, but since trade war begin of all kinds commodity to suffer suppress, till recently global economy foreground cheats a shadow, let commodity go namely simply decline suffer stone hammer.
From ETF of American market goods: Nearly 3 months walk along DBC situation look, fatigued and weak dropping sign is very clear, this ETF included the commodity futures price of 14 breed, can say the intuitionistic report that is market of commodity of current whole world.
Can see, among them big head or oil, beautiful oil and cloth oil add up occupy than nearly 30% , and because reduction of output and global economy are hopeful,began in year last year expect the oil price that goes up greatly, the near future is likewise dispirited.
Beauty of link up with's oily ETF: USO, enter July also is to begin be issued to lower levels, crop continues reductive space is not large, market demand begins be suspicious making a person again, follow-up of oil price at least will enter concussion period.
Invest to commodity, those who need an attention is very simple, this is typical periodic trade, and accompany rising market general economy slowdown, lack new big build newly emerging force, the boom old cycle that the hope lasts several years will be very difficult. Also I had carried this in the past, goods investment is had apparent " the ceiling that looks so that see " feature, how to go up to be able to be experienced again in front a ceiling horizontal stroke is over there, suit to trade very much so model player, average person does not have sortie of necessary and too much energy. And near future trend is more clear, without giving thought to commodity people how does the price rise next go up drop, be not being touched is, where I do not know by, but had not come for certain.
Commodity has the ceiling, the company grows the ceiling of sex of common also level in the process, for instance the closest big news is: Tecent money newspaper attacks street! Want last year, investor of how many Tecent returns confidence full, "The future of Tecent is stars sea " , expect 3 years two even inside enter club of -727379968 dollars market prise, this year how abrupt washed-up.
In fact, tecent money signs up for most those who make a person anxious still is income of mobile phone game, this annulus comparing drops too dazzling. Before this, in the extreme of how terrible of Netease game business, returning somebody to think is company problem only, this is Netease by Tecent painful reflect flatly, but already somebody shows industry of play of go on a journey is afraid early growth space also in the end, even the Internet bonus of tycoon of Chinese science and technology already in the end.
Since this year, tecent share price is depressed all the time, I think or development of high speed of its early days leaves capital level matter share price rises ceaselessly, itself appraise is worth already taller. Appraise cost is high not be a problem, special in global capital comfortable, company business is normal more below the circumstance of high speed growth, but appraise value has always also to " normal value " recursive trend, and pull those who change this trend often two active force:
Above all, big environment, capital cycle is tightened by comfortable trend hasten, bovine city is lack of power, value of again good appraise increases your outstanding achievement again hard also.
Next, company outstanding achievement grows, overmeasure value wants fast growth to be being held in the palm, once slowdown lets appraise possibly,the lever of value growth turns retrorse appraise into the lever that the value returns to. Before this, the Netflix of the US stock, Facebook experienced such hour.
Unluckily, as a result of well-known reason, RMB (perhaps say kind of RMB) asset be thwarted, business of this moment Tecent begins to reflect decelerate evidence really again. And want to notice, this one evidence is not this second money newspaper just is reflected, close half an year a variety of data, and the occurrence of competitor has been reflected, a few investor also begin perch to leave, newspaper of near future money is stone hammer only just. But, this also brings " advantage " , that is anxious to Tecent business below, its share price has reacted ahead of schedule, form to drop stage by stage trend.
Fulfil when the bad news so when, you can discover the market is done not have however instead so intense, than Facebook one day drops go one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two dollars + miserable situation a lot of. But, often, also be such process makes investor easy instead deficit or earnings appears tremendous time remove, because this process ravels,look not intense, always let you feel this is short-term phenomenon only, especially Tecent because,the long-term investor before this is more one kind " feeling " , although face already apparent and exorbitant appraise cost, a few already some evidence and the viewpoint that does not wish to accept Tecent slowdown, the eye looks at yield to be damaged. So, do true " value investor " very difficult really.
The discussion around Tecent is very much also recently, a viewpoint article about Tecent strategy is to become hot language more. Look in me, the strategic need of Tecent is adjusted ceaselessly according to oneself gene and market direction, but really a company has its gene and ability border, the way that so Tecent invests in the lay particular stress on on new business also the question is not big. But, tecent needs to be besides game really, spy the line of new growth, of course, this is the thing that Ma Huateng ponders over, we need not think more, still observe an opportunity from investment point of view, the likelihood also needs more patience, wanting the number one Microsoft that knows PC era to seek standard way in Internet times also is the time that spent 10 years.
Meanwhile, accompany Tecent to go decline what do a company of Chinese science and technology actually is fatigued and weak, special harbor the company of a lot of science and technology that go up in succession miserable drop, broken even hair. But, namely such, still a large number of companies break a head to want to bleed appear on the market, because everybody is clear that economic cycle entered what phase, money is tightened up, one class market has lacked cash, come to 2 class market rapidly only financing. So, come like colourful the car is current this phase suits one class market to mix more actually, also come 2 class market, and the estimate that exceeds 20 billion dollar is worth everybody of Jing evil spirit. Tesla has not been breathed out madly to market prise of 60 billion dollar too tall, but at least has measured the car that produced many model, built have the whole world famous spent high-end brand, follow Wei Laiyi to compare, I lean, tesla appraise value appears however " reasonable " .
Here, I also venture proposal, the IPO of the near future is not participated in please (in the past, I can be used commonly " discretion is participated in " ) , not be to say these companies are bad, however the capital bubble period that they are in an awkwardness and go of bubble period connect a dot, what bubble period enters is unwilling appraise value makes the old partner that lose, receive dish is the investor that forbids to have according to bubble period appraise is worth, true risk is very so big. Original poineering company from not transparent one class market, take 2 class market, it is the process that test and verify of an appraise value fulfils, this time goes should receiving Pan Xia to warm a hand really. This moment, might as well wait a moment, wait for these company antecedents to go further after bubble process, again with more reasonable price proceed with.
In fact, although IPO is considered as the dream of very much poineering company, but IPO also means bigger test really, "Dead date " appear on the market company also common occurance, special fall in bubble of a few capital, early days investor and the person that do poineering work sees time node appear special situation, the likelihood is bubble high point, also may be bubble when beginning to be squeezed to defeat, can have very strong motive IPO. Nevertheless, special enter 21 centuries, itself experienced Internet bubble undone and second borrow the crisis twice the crisis, let 2 class market suffer blow, and after this is capital of nearly 10 years comfortable cause one class market hot Qian Ju is much, also reduced demesne the enthusiasm of company IPO.
1974, one the name is born for Wilshire 5000 index, try to enclothe complete beauty to appear on the market company, the United States appears on the market at that time company number also is in 5000 the left and right sides. And 7500 when this amount is in after this to reached a peak 1997, but it is process of a ceaseless reductive then, wilshire 5000 index is already serious nowadays " be unworthy of the name or the title " , because the United States appears on the market,the company has 3500 only.
But, a country appears on the market company measure has nothing to do with the quality of this nation market, because accompany this process, is company of tycoon of American new generation grow.
Can see accompany the United States to appear on the market while company measure drops, the United States appears on the market the total market prise of the company begins to expand however, accompanying epicycle ox city after borrowing the crisis is to be achieved ceaselessly more piece new tall, and the European area that lacks new economy appears on the market company market prise was not returned up to now however second before borrowing the crisis. So, IPO to appearing on the market company itself is a good thing, special to among them the individual related the interest, but to investor, be an investment subject that need treats carefully.
