Safe notion
■ foreword
This article is us " Sino-US trade war " the 4th of series special subject, discussed the United States to may use the financial punish step that financial hegemony takes to China, the Fang Yi in thinking will continue hide one's capacities and bide one's time.
■ the United States pulls financial hegemony alone, external punish time-tested
Blow of rigor of financial punish monitoring is accurate, the United States is exclusive can implement punish principal part. Financial punish and economic punish are put have connection, but also have notable difference. Economic punish has the characteristic with wide, all-around limits, close and efficient, accurate blow is the main feature of financial punish. Of financial punish can charge a sex relatively economic sanction is stronger, strength and limits all controallable, and cost is inferior. The United States that has financial hegemony only at present ability is capable to implement financial sanction to exotic nation.
Opposing with the United States is punish advocate because of, diversification of financial sanction means. From will be look by the political power property of punish country, opposing with the United States is his main general character. Sanction means diversification of the United States and easy operation, still but with when all is entered. No matter be individual, legal person or political party, country, can become the target of American finance punish, and be aimed at different object, the United States can take the punish step that has specific aim and validity extremely, give punish target energy accurate scar, it is deadly biff even.
■ Korea war China head by punish, because Kunlun bank is enrolled in experience Yi
During Korea war China ever by punish, loosen somewhat after Sino-US relation normalization. The financial punish that the United States is aimed at China is the earliest but date from founds a state to new China primary Korea war period, the United States basically just is used freeze China and relevant personnel to undertake financial punish to China in the method of beautiful asset. Tend till Sino-US 1971 relation improvement, the United States was loosened gradually just now right China the punish limitation of classics trade and financial domain.
Because involve,trade with Iranian bank, kunlun bank is carried out by the United States punish. Kunlun bank was traded by punish bank with Iranian part because of involving in July 2012 and by beautiful square punish. The United States makes to the financial punish of Kunlun bank the foreign currency business of Kunlun bank, remittance business, financing business all cannot normal operation, big even trade and pay often to also cannot undertake. This almost the capital channel that block broke Chinese enterprise and Iran to undertake classics trade cooperates, the classics trade collaboration with normal two countries of the Yi in be opposite caused striking impact.
■ the United States has system of complete finance punish, cut off paying a passageway is its ace
System of SWIFT of dollar hegemony overlay, system of American finance punish is complete. The United States built complete financial hegemony system from each respect compose such as economy, finance, technology, law, administration, this carried out financial punish to provide precondition and system safeguard for the United States. Among them, hegemony of economic finance actual strength of the United States, dollar is a foundation, SWIFT is the core of whole system.
Undertake fining frozen assets in the light of individual orgnaization, punish nation organization is adopted cut off pay a passageway trump card. The United States all has corresponding move in the light of different subject when financial punish. When implementing financial sanction to target country, beautiful congress is aimed at the leader of target country to adopt amerce and frozen assets to wait for act first, the asset that still can freeze important orgnaization and organization keeps abreast of a big penalty. But the loss that this brings to punish target is finite. There still is one king card in American hand, come to those who cut off punish target organization or country and outside pay liquidation the passageway through SWIFT and CHIPS namely.
■ financial punish is worth vigilance, hide one's capacities and bide one's time still is the best thing to do
Condition of current ground predestined relationship is complex and changeful, american finance punish is worth vigilance. In existence of condition of international ground predestined relationship the setting of bigger uncertainty falls, the United States is right in orgnaization of square part finance adopts amerce, frozen assets and limitation to trade the possibility that waits for financial punish is worth while and vigilant. Future, american government may pick or much home has subsidiary bank of representative United States of Chinese commercial bank, claim to should help Iran all right (or Korea) offer the finance that crosses condition capital service or other type to serve, violated relevant law of the United States, because this wants to levy fine of a huge sum, quit this partial professional work even. Enlarge punish limits possibly still even to the branch outside condition of Chinese commercial bank, cut off its to pay liquidation the passageway through SWIFT. The case that is similar to resurgence communication may be performed again in Chinese finance orgnaization, we should have made sufficient preparation to this.
Chinese appropriate will continue hide one's capacities and bide one's time, as good as of undersell beautiful debt " give a person with the handle " . CIPS, namely the RMB is crossed condition pay a system, it is China's important finance infrastructure. CIPS direct participator is to point to the orgnaization that opens account in CIPS, indirect participator needs to open account of a person of same business in direct participator. All disbursement of CIPS participator and information kind business all is handled through CIPS, this also made sure CIPS system can maintain opposite independence with SWIFT, no matter be direct participator, indirect still participator all can be avoided suffer hand in easy information to divulge bring about then by American finance punish the concussion of potential risk. Current, CIPS still is delivering the level that exhibit flourishingly, square finance orgnaization still needs the financial punish big stick-means of intimidation of vigilant United States in, continue to adopt strategy of hide one's capacities and bide one's time and timely avoid reason of its ability can yet be regarded as chooses. In difference of Sino-US finance domain far below the actual setting that is more than classics trade domain, china is unfavorable and active expand the attrition of commerce domain to financial domain, as good as of national debt of United States of wholesale usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price at " give a person with the handle " .
Catalog
One, the United States pulls financial hegemony alone, external punish time-tested
Blow of rigor of monitoring of 1.1 finance punish is accurate, the United States is exclusive can implement punish principal part
After World War II, although be the lay mines of core to pause with the dollar silvan system from build a trend to break down, but with international Monetary Fund (IMF) , world bank (WB) with World Trade Organization (WTO) built the system of global classics trade that have to get great progress for core compose, the United States besides very speech is had in this 3 big textural besides authority, the international liquidation system that is core with the dollar consolidated further financial hegemony of the United States. Hold something under the arm is wrapped in financial hegemony under, the each country that is kept in contrary relation with the United States besides punish of meeting experience economy, often return the financial sanction that can suffer the United States.
Financial punish and economic punish are put have connection, but also have notable difference. Usually, economic punish basically is aimed at often the limitation of imports and exports that the project will come to undertake many sided to punish target country. On one hand, can compress only outlet to hit its country economy then through limitting export; On the other hand, it is important to still can pass weapon of the important raw material such as limitative commissariat, mineral products, the sources of energy and high-tech product, military affairs to wait equipment will strike its economy and national defence. Economic punish also has in the light of investment, basically be to prohibit tripartite country invests punish target country or accepting its to invest, especially high-tech and sensitive technology domain. Whole looks, economic punish has the characteristic with wide, all-around limits. Additional, economic punish is put in a few blemish, limitation of imports and exports can give punish target country to cause bigger blow and awe admittedly, but the country of executive punish or organization cannot are opposite target country and the monitoring that channel of all imports and exports of tripartite carry out comprehensive rigor, hard avoid part country is passed certain " dark line " the strategic resource that carries its to need to punish target country, exist in the neighbour of punish target country especially " assist " when motive and passageway.
Financial punish criterion somewhat difference, show by punish executive main body or organization adopt the kind that supervise and restricts punish target to liquidate a passageway to undertake international pays through international to have the medium of close blow to the target commonly. Still often can hit the orgnaization of tripartite finance that violates this punish regulation jointly. Close and efficient, accurate blow is the main feature of financial punish, on punish limits and strength, of financial punish can charge a sex relatively economic sanction is stronger, strength and limits all controallable, and cost is general and inferior. Additional, because financial punish relies on punish fact,almsgiver body liquidates the absolutely control force of the passageway to international, the principal part that implements financial sanction so has higher demand the main body of executive economy punish relatively, will look at present have concentrated sex, the United States that has financial hegemony only namely ability is capable to implement financial sanction to exotic nation. Be aimed at the careless omission that economic punish may produce, financial punish can develop his the characteristic of comprehensive and close monitoring, can check the place of careless omission quickly not only, still can carry pair of tripartite states the awe of relevant orgnaization and accurate punish cut off his to be opposite the help of punish target country, block up to economic punish on gaps and omissions, enhance the blow ability of punish and awe power further.
1.2 opposing with the United States is punish advocate because of, diversification of financial sanction means
The United States in 20 centuries 70 time begin to use financial sanction gradually, the frequency that after entering 21 centuries, uses increases significantly. Terroristic, violent, dictatorship and witch-hunting become the United States to adopt the main basis of punish to target country. Punish target country is located in middle east area more, europe of Latin America, middle east and Africa also have many punish target countries to distributing.
From will be look by the political power property of punish country, opposing with the United States is his main general character. No matter be the Iran of middle east, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, still be the Cuba of Latin America, Venezuela, all be in ever was produced with the United States by punish period level sex antagonism, its political power often by powerful ethical leader the palm is accused, carry out in home accompany leader of type of nationalism colorific might. So, opposing dictatorship and force is the United States what take financial sanction to these countries is main " reason " .
The Iran of Asian Korea and middle east ever still brought about because of nuclear test American punish. Additional, the United States is right the punish of the Balkan area of hamster, White Russia, Wukelan is more contain political sex. After Russia disintegrate, stand for war as what beautiful Russia rich weichis, many countries are in middle east and hamster area of the United States give aid to below, arose more powerful turn over governmental armament, these armament often erupt in the fight with local government regional war, the people suffers hardship. Although the government can be protected oneself, also keep clear of thoroughly hard counterforce, peace and development are Yao more cannot reach. Below the setting that shows in war and violent frequency, the United States often is used turn over civilian of violent, protection to wait " reason " will be opposite oneself contrary (the governmental power that often is place) take financial sanction, cut down its actual strength in order to achieve to help the United States just give aid to then the purpose of force. As a whole, although the United States accepts the argument of financial punish varied, and " fear instead, protective civilian, oppose force, object dictatorship " those who wait for high-sounding " reason " the appearance that has beauty, but the contrary that the political power station that real core factor is punish target country mostly was in the United States, to the United States the interest of ground fringe politics in the whole world produced bigger menace. The commonnest in a certain number of archiveses that this takes financial sanction from the United States " the menace that constituted different common to national security of the United States and foreign policy " relevant state also can see this, what when this takes commerce sanction to China with the United States almost, use " maintain national security " if the method goes out to be removed.
Look from sanction means, the United States' most commonly used sanction means is to block personal property prohibits trading partly, punish is effective area is to point to American churchyard and American administer or the country inside control limits or area. When entity or legal person become punish target, the main body that block belongings prohibits trading also can expand relevant substance and legal person; When some country the government becomes punish target when, the United States is met even the main body that the government regards block as belongings and prohibits this country trading. Additional, the United States also can undertake comprehensive financial punish in the light of certain state, include to prohibit American trades or hold the asset such as the enterprise bond that the asset such as governmental bond, debt, gage or governmental control issue this country, debt, gage, also prohibit the financing that American offers any forms for this country, prohibit at the same time anybody develops relevant business in American churchyard. After in last few years digital money appears, the means of American finance punish still is met outspread be traded by punish country and American or the digital money inside beautiful territory to limitation. The United States serves as the only principal part that can have financial punish, there is the flexibility that chooses punish target not only on sanction means, also those who choose the diversity of sanction means and punish limits can charge a sex, still have with when the ability that all takes. No matter be individual, legal person or political party, country, can become the target of American finance punish, and be aimed at different object, the United States can take the punish step that has specific aim and validity extremely, give punish target energy accurate scar, it is deadly biff even.
2, Korea war China head by punish, because Kunlun bank is enrolled in experience Yi
During 2.1 Korea war China ever by punish, loosen somewhat after Sino-US relation normalization
The financial punish that the United States is aimed at China is the earliest but date from founds a state to new China earlier. Korea war period, the United States just regards as square contrary country in, all suffer puissant sanction of the United States in the domain such as classics trade, investment, finance, technology. Specific to financial side, the United States basically just is used freeze China and relevant personnel to undertake punish to China in the method of beautiful asset. Considering found a state earlier China still is in socialism to transform initial stage, no matter be party organization or orgnaization and individual, all did not accumulate the wealth of etiquette model, more won't overseas owns more extensive property, the step of frozen assets punish that so the United States takes at that time did not produce immediate effect, the it is particular to have via trade collaboration external deterrence function that is pair of block China only.
After Korea truce agreement is signed, sino-US contrary situation has no marked improvement, the element such as battle of ideological, beautiful Su Leng will still Sino-US two countries cuts apart to come artificially. The United States is in to China the punish of domain of classics trade, technology, finance still is in continuously. Tend till Sino-US 1971 relation improvement, the United States was loosened gradually just now right China the punish limitation of classics trade and financial domain, allow not only Sino-US between the each other of partial commodity is connected, also allow the United States and chinese mainland to undertake normal finance trades, hand in easy financial intermediary orgnaization as two countries by American bank. This is shown after Sino-US relation is improved the United States is opposite in square financial punish is remarkable hasten is loose. 1972 Sino-US establish diplomatic relations with after Deng Xiaoping visited the United States 1979, sino-US relation entered the new phase with friendly collaboration.
2.2 because involve,trade with Iranian bank, kunlun bank is carried out by the United States punish
Chinese finance orgnaization by the example of American finance punish not much, be worth what carry was 2012 Kunlun bank because with be traded by the Iranian finance orgnaization of punish and offer finance to serve to its and by American punish, it is certain to be had this by punish incident representative, or the punish of square finance orgnaization in be aimed at the United States that happens possibly for future offers example and caution.
Iran is Mohammedan 1979 after revolution erupts, iranian west liberalizes stop abruptly, began overall Mohammedan change. Of the same age will erupt in November " Iranian hostage crisis " bring about beautiful Yi to concern to worsen quickly, the United States begins from this to long-term punish of Iran.
In 20 centuries 80 time, crude oil of Iran of limitation of United States of be confined to of mere to Iranian punish bureau imports the United States. Although the United States after explosion of embassy of Beirut United States maintained Iran in April 1983,be " terroristic support country " , but in contend for hegemony of this first-order Duan Meisu still be advocate fundamental key, two Yi war also gives experience revolution before long Iran brought great challenge, beautiful Yi both sides all does not have overmuch energy to launch direct engage in a battle.
90 time, the United States is in respectively 1995 with came on stage 1996 " Iran trades superintendency law " with " Iranian punish act " , among them 1995 " Iran trades superintendency law " prohibit in the round the investment between American company and Iran and trade activity; 1996 " Iranian punish act " expand limitative limits by American enterprise to the enterprise beyond the United States, this also is the United States can the legal foundation of the tripartite state enterprise that punish and Iran do business or orgnaization.
2001 " 9 · 11 " incident erupts bring about the United States to will fear serving as the one big focal point that concerns external instead, in mouth of assorted of American president little cloth holding the post of when Iran and Iraq, Korea is become together 3 big " evil Axis powers " . The United States increased to reach executive strength to punish measure of Iran further, held water 2004 " terroristic with financial information office " (TFI) cooperate to held water 1950 " foreign capital of sea of Ministry of finance produces control office " (OFAC) assume a finance that strengthens Iran and enterprise of the Three Kingdoms to trade to superintend jointly, force Iran to must increase the investment of pair of military affairs weapons. And the progress that waits for a domain in nuclear fierce and ballistic missile as Iran, the United States also upgrades ceaselessly to Iranian punish, beautiful Yi relation worsens quickly.
Although,beautiful Yi negotiates open, but Iran lets the United States and European Union feel disturbed in the progress on nuke, beautiful Ou Jun increased the sanction to Iran, the United States is in 2010-2013 year came on stage in succession " comprehensive punish Iran, ask duty and remove endowment act " , " 2012 money year bill of national defence authorization " , " reduced Iranian menace and Syrian power bill 2012 " with " 2013 money year bill of national defence authorization " , implement comprehensive sanction to Iranian economic and trade activity. Place favour is in in July 2015, iran and beautiful Russia are Sino-French Ying Deliu country and European Union are reached " combine overall action to plan " (JCPOA, namely " Iranian nucleus agreement " ) , each just come to an end to Iranian punish, till the United States exited Yi nucleus in May 2018,restart after the agreement the punish to Iran.
During each phase punish, iranian economy all gets the striking impact of punish, although the Iran that with crude oil exit props up for main economy can suffer the bigger effect of punish, but opposed of Yi is in the beauty is close in 40 years, rarely seen Iran is active make substantially concession and compromise movement, after Mohammedan revolution " politics teach syncretic " of Iran and United States contrary fear still will continueing, this also is prospective 1-2 year the uncertainty event with ground fringe the biggest politics.
Yi of Kunlun bank experience is produced in 2010-2013 by beautiful punish year a beautiful Ou Jiajiang is right during Iranian punish July 2012. Before this, american Ministry of finance implemented sanction in the light of orgnaization of more than 20 banks. The Ailafuyisilan that the official sanction file of American Ministry of finance points out Kunlun bank and Iraq because the bank involves the financial system that trade with the orgnaization of bank of much home Iran in appointing more than 20 banks and is eliminated to be in the United States besides. Among them, the Iranian bank that Kunlun bank is suspected of sufferring American sanction with 6 above provides many banking service, involve capital to count a dollar, include hold account, turn Zhang and pay L/C to wait. File of American Ministry of finance alluded technically still to be at the beginning of 2012, kunlun bank undertook hundreds turn in the account of Iranian Tejarat bank from inside be in punish Zhang, amount restrains 100 million dollar. Besides, at the beginning of of the same age, according to the letter of credit that Iranian Tejarat bank offers, kunlun bank is Iran at least the accessary orgnaization cash of Mohammedan revolution armed escort brushstroke money.
The United States basically has the following to the punish of Kunlun bank: ① prohibits or limitation handles account through Kunlun bank or acting account offers any trade financing; ② limitation perhaps deals with Zhang money to handle individual remittance to wait through account of Kunlun bank representative trade; ③ acts as agent to may passing Kunlun bank account or deal with what account handles to set monetary limit or trade quantity limitation; Orgnaization of finance of ④ requirement United States acts as agent to passing Kunlun bank account or those who deal with account processing is all trade undertake be examinationed technically beforehand; ⑤ prohibits or limitation acts as agent through Kunlun bank account or deal with account to handle foreign currency to trade.
Consider oral message of pass in and out uses card business between home and Iran at that time undertake the whole thing by Kunlun bank almost, this also is meant, if our country trafficker and investment business do not pass Kunlun bank, pay the money with just undertake very hard regular with Iranian collaboration. The United States makes to the financial punish of Kunlun bank the foreign currency business of Kunlun bank, remittance business, financing business all cannot normal operation, big even trade and pay often to also cannot undertake. This almost the capital channel that block broke Chinese enterprise and Iran to undertake classics trade cooperates, the classics trade collaboration with normal two countries of the Yi in be opposite caused striking impact.
3, the United States has system of complete finance punish, cut off paying a passageway is its ace
In the instantly that Sino-US trade war escalates ceaselessly, the dispute of classics trade domain spreads to financial domain likely. Problem of near future Iran ferments continuously, problem of financial concussion, Korea still puts Turkey to also carried out financial punish to offer a condition to the United States repeatedly.
System of SWIFT of overlay of 3.1 dollars hegemony, system of American finance punish is complete
With " oil dollar " for the delegate, the dollar pays a tool to still have at present as the most general international stronger cannot replace a gender, this also built global finance hegemony to lay wonderful foundation for the United States; In the meantime, the United States' powerful economy actual strength and financial ability and dollar hegemony supplement each other; On this foundation, the United States was built with consortium of telecommunications of finance of bank of round-the-world a person of same business (namely SWIFT) with new York a person of same business of liquidation place bank pays a system (namely CHIPS) give priority to body cross condition capital to liquidate system and cross area banking infrastructure, provided technical safeguard for financial punish; Additional, the United States passes to enact a law article and " foreign capital of sea of Ministry of finance produces control office " (OFAC) give out administrative order to offer law to prop up to financial punish dictate with make known to lower levels. Can say, the United States built complete financial hegemony system from each respect compose such as economy, finance, technology, law, administration, this carried out financial punish to provide precondition and system safeguard for the United States.
In whole system, most of core should belong to association of communication of the finance between round-the-world bank (namely SWIFT) . SWIFT founds 1973, it is the international between bank of international of profitability of a blame cooperative organization, the Brussels of headquarters locate Belgium, still have two trade center at the same time, part the new York of locate Dutch Amsterdam and United States, attend a country to open collect line center for each association, provide a service for international banking business, it is the whole world liquidation pays the organization between the biggest international. Although SWIFT headquarters is set in Belgium, but the palm that still is in the United States basically accuses under.
SWIFT still is global commerce and international finance to supply the part that straddles condition capital service from what till 20 centuries end basically is acted,found, but 2001 " 9 · 11 " after incident erupts, the capital that the government that presidential small Bush and its leader hold the post of to fall when begins to will cut off base to organize etc horror flows carry program. On September 23, 2001, small bush-administration basis " international is urgent economic right act " started " terrorist financing dogs project " (namely TFTP) , accredit OFAC can be taken from SWIFT attune and the finance related horrible organization trades to shed communication to cease with capital. After this, SWIFT besides hold the position of outside providing the function that steps condition capital service for global commerce and international finance, still acting what offer its to need for American government to involve terroristic the part that waits for relevant organization to make easy news.
SWIFT was announced to offer the relevant event that makes easy news to OFAC 2006 in partial media, the European Union is aware of this likelihood to arise the privacy to its citizen menace, spread out then with the United States the controversy about SWIFT. After talking things over through be as long as two rounds nearly 4 years, european Union and United States are reached consistent, SWIFT data can supervise next conveying to reach the United States in what the European Union represents, european gumshoe organization also has approval and the power that decline American Ministry of finance to get SWIFT data to apply for. Although the European Union is in,go up somehow the control force to SWIFT caused the United States to restrict, but consider an European Union restrict be confined to those who prevent European citizen to trade data is conveyed to reach the United States by batch, the United States is in economy and international are political the suppress that all can form pair of European Unions, beautiful Europe still retains the common interest that has many sided, the sanction that so the European Union takes SWIFT data in tone to the United States and uses this to undertake financial punish is weaker, the United States has the palm to SWIFT basically to accuse force.
CHIPS founds 1970, it is in capital of area of new York of 60 time evening allocate and transfer trades place is liquidated to consider to be built in new York by new York below the setting that measures mushroom, CHIPS system uses online work way and bank terminal to be linked together through liquidating the commutative center of place, 42 terminal of 9 banks are involved only at the beginning of founding; But the rapid development as economic globalization and international finance, CHIPS system has developed to own 12 members bank, 14 attend liquidation bank and numerous blame to attend the giant international liquidation that liquidates bank composition to pay a network. Bank of 12 members in CHIPS system can pass couplet of its new York store the liquidation that representative of deposit reserve account joins liquidation bank 14 times, 14 price attend liquidation bank to be in charge of the blame with numerous representative entering the liquidation that liquidates a bank again. Connect in international capital be in harmony as a result of the dollar in the position close to forestall, as the whole world the biggest dollar pays a system, the dollar of bank a person of same business that CHIPS assumed on the world 95% above pays liquidation and the foreign currency of 90% above to trade liquidation, it is the system of cosmopolitan capital allocate and transfer on real significance.
With what CHIPS belongs to same quality still federal lays in communication system (namely Fedwire) , american this two large liquidation systems act a part somewhat difference, fedwire basically is in charge of American home pay liquidation, and CHIPS basically holds the position of what international capital trades to pay liquidation. The core of this two big United States pays liquidation system and SWIFT one case compose builds an United States to arrive formidably the financial domain infrastructure close to forestall.
Although European TARGET (namely " extensive Europe real time sum clears a system automatically " ) , Japanese FXYCS (namely " foreign currency yen clears a system " ) with CLS (namely " bind continuously liquidation system " ) , British CHAPS (namely, independent at CHIPS, but still need to use SWIFT to undertake message is changed, cast off the dependence to SWIFT hard. This money that has opposite independence merely at economic system waiting in Ou Riying relatively so clears a system or multilateral money clears a system, the make known to lower levels of the legal file of the close to forestall finance infrastructure that by right of the overlay of economic finance actual strength with dollar hegemony and powerful oneself its SWIFT and CHIPS photograph combine and form a complete set and OFAC dictates, the United States owns complete financial punish system, financial punish was carried out to offer precondition while this also undertakes to target country for the United States economy blocks.
The United States undertakes to punish target the flow of financial punish is as follows roughly: Be opposite to the OFAC make known to lower levels of the Ministry of finance by presidential office or the White House some punish target (the bank that is punish target organization or country mostly) undertake investigating and the command of punish, OFAC sends tone to take to SWIFT related to this punish target the request of information, after via check of European Union nucleus this information does not violate the privacy of citizen of common European Union, SWIFT is sent to OFAC relevant make easy news, the information that OFAC feedbacks according to SWIFT spreads out investigation to obtain evidence, punish move is announced again later.
3.2 undertake fining frozen assets in the light of individual orgnaization, punish nation organization is adopted cut off pay a passageway trump card
Begin to be used to in SWIFT the capital that cuts off base organization and outside trades of the passageway 2001, the United States mastered the finance of base organization and outside to make easy news through SWIFT, additional still even control other horror organizes make easy news. Although the United States claims all the time,its are aimed at only terroristic trade relevantly undertake investigating, but accuse force to the palm of SWIFT considering the United States, be afraid the finance of the lot of European Union citizen that thinks protection besides the European Union makes easy news, the United States can obtain its acquisitive all capital make easy news. This also is American OFAC can is opposite relevant the reason that trades to just undertake essence of life allows sanction.
The United States is aimed at different subject to all have corresponding punish move when taking financial sanction, generally speaking, the United States is opposite when target country implements financial sanction, it is important to can be aimed at target country first the punish move that main leader of the branch and family take amerce and frozen assets, can decide punish target lock even for this country leader reachs his familial; If punish purpose still was not achieved, still can adopt the asset that freezes important orgnaization and organization to keep abreast of the punish of a big penalty. But these punish measure all get end of punish of be confined to individual or the orgnaization organizes the asset dimensions in American bank system, belong to finite punish, the loss that brings to punish target also has limit. But there still is one king card in American hand -- the capital that will cut off punish target organization or country and outside through SWIFT and CHIPS pays liquidation the passageway.
Call its ace, because its destroy force can to say,be " nuclear fierce " level. Once some finance orgnaization is cut off to pay a passageway by CHIPS, so its cross condition dollar business to be faced with break down; Once some finance orgnaization is cut off by SWIFT,more terrible is message changes a channel, so this finance orgnaization cannot be crossed through what the United States has fund not only condition trade, still cannot wait for other currency to undertake crossing through euro, yen, RMB, pound condition trade, of this finance orgnaization cross condition trade business proclaims basically break down. Those who cut off the land after paying a passageway to compare nuke to atttack to destroying force can of financial orgnaization formidably is desert, your life dread!
The history that takes financial sanction from the United States looks, the identity of the punish step that the United States takes and contrary and ability are concerned. Adopt the commonly used way such as amerce, frozen assets more when be aimed at individual and orgnaization, use limitation lesser to trade wait for ace method; Use the asset that freezes important individual and origanization construction to cut off more when be aimed at a country or organizing trade clear to calculate a passageway (namely: Limitation trades) composite instrument.
Say from the effect, financial punish relatively effect of classics trade punish is much better, and the capacity that essence of life is hit definitely. 2003 American punish Korea while, still pass analytic SWIFT and CHIPS data to discover China and Korea exist to trade in great quantities record. After two years, basis of American Ministry of finance " patriot act " , the Macao that to 52 Korea client reachs his 25 million dollar deposits money collects trade bank to undertake punish, announce this 25 million dollar asset is frozen. Caused Macao to collect the large-scale a run on a bank of trade bank not only, other bank also interrupted what collect trade bank with Macao to trade by force of pressure, announce to freeze Korea account. After the capital of break down of each commercial bank and Korea trades, trench of pair of foreign capital gold of Korea are whole be cut off, whole foreign trade is immersed in break down, economy is close to breaking down. Soon, korea asks to restart 6 talk. Be opposite in the United States in the financial punish process of Korea, SWIFT and CHIPS undertake to Korea for the United States financial punish provided accurate control and guide.
Financial punish still can replace the deterrence power of martial act partly, among them other sanction means compares the action of ace hard. This also can is opposite from the United States clue sees in financial punish of Iran. Below the background that takes amerce, frozen assets to still achieve its politics goal hard to Iran in the United States, in March 2012, SWIFT announces to stop to provide liquidation service for Iranian bank, the passageway that Iran pays to foreign capital gold is cut off. This one act forces the Iran at that time to be able to seek original barter transaction to complete the foreign trade that its want only. Original barter transaction not only exceeding lack efficiency, and bring about Iran goods and materials of exceeding lack strategy, malign inflation of Iran devalues with this insanity of money Li Yaer following one by one. Below this setting, iranian political situation happens queasy, luhani was elected as Iranian president smoothly as moderates candidate in June 2013, after Yi concerns to also be in, the United States alleviates gradually; Of the same age November, yi nucleus agreement is reached smoothly. American win victory without battle, the end that used financial punish to reach need to expend resource of many military affairs to will surely be not reached quite completely merely.
4, financial punish is worth vigilance, hide one's capacities and bide one's time still is the best thing to do
In Sino-US trade war the setting of passageway of Shang Chusheng class falls, condition of global ground predestined relationship also faces complex and changeful environment. The likelihood of become acute of beautiful Yi contradictory existence after the United States exits Iranian nucleus agreement; "Tejinhui " hind the United States still has bigger uncertainty toward relation trend, future still is put repeatedly likelihood; Turkey erupts below American punish financial crisis, caused the market to be opposite another round of panicky mood of burgeoning economy system. Below this setting, china should the financial punish step that vigilant United States may take, appropriate continues hide one's capacities and bide one's time, avoid to instigate actively Sino-US the conflict in financial domain.
Condition of predestined relationship of 4.1 current ground is complex and changeful, american finance punish is worth vigilance
Numerous first quarter 2018 potential risk still is in be pregnant with. 2 quarters erupt to exit Iranian nucleus agreement with the United States as Sino-US trade war, global economy anabiosises receive block, condition of ground predestined relationship also warms up significantly. Trade war greets 3 quarters to upgrade spread, the United States is right first punish of Iran also in August become effective, korea condition is new complicated and confusing rises, the political contradiction of Turkey and United States evolves for the financial crisis with severe Turkey, debt collects overall to drop considerably; Rising market is faced with capital to last below strong dollar the pressure of outflow, the Euramerican stock market with powerful force goes to also begin to appear before connecting this turn around the evidence that be down. What can predict is, the four seasons spends beautiful Yi contradiction to will welcome final trend on November 4, sino-US trade war also will be faced with variable, korea issue appears possibly also repeatedly, metaphase election of the United States is destined to won't calm. In condition of current ground predestined relationship complex and changeful circumstance falls, the United States is special of bright general government strong do clique and abysmal line operation to make its are aimed at in the possibility that just takes financial sanction is steep add, vigilant United States just answers to take the potential risk of financial punish in.
Take financial sanction considering the United States mostly with " support is terroristic " with " turn over human rights " wait for the reason that is high-sounding, american big probability won't be rushed take comprehensive financial sanction to China, may strengthen pair of Iran sanction in the United States especially and fall to the background that Russia takes financial sanction. Above all, if the United States takes comprehensive financial sanction to China, be in in below the case that square diplomacy does not make gross error, the United States lacks excellent reason, the international speech right that this will give the United States and public letter force cause great effect, the base that pounds its finance punish even -- dollar hegemony; Next, the United States adopts comprehensive financial punish to be equivalent to the E Yichao in be opposite at the same time taking financial sanction to China, this reachs one share with respect to the E Yichao in be being forced possibly burgeoning economy system undertakes to basically pay a money with the RMB capital be in harmony is connected trade with finance, this also can form concussion to the hegemonic position of the dollar, go against ground fringe benefit of the United States even. The United States may be so more the target alignment that still is punish of meeting general finance and Korea or Iran already by or the financial orgnaization that is about to trade by the national presence capital of American punish.
From 1985 the Bank of China regards foreign trade of national foreign currency as professional bank enlightened SWIFT communication begins, the numerous finance orgnaization such as company of the industrial and commercial bank, construction bank, agriculture bank bank orgnaization that is a delegate and insurance company, stockjobber, fund also opened SWIFT communication in succession. Of China and outside crossing condition capital to trade is to pass SWIFT to undertake message is changed mostly, this also makes when the financial punish risk that faces the United States, financial orgnaization of home accomplishs effective avoid hard.
Investment of trade of the day in considering and in Yi commerce invests the square gravely predestined relationship in mattering to interest, yi commerce and investment still are in " one belt all the way " one of keys of along the line, just lead probably in won't the economic and trade activity of dead stop and Korea, Iran, this regards capital as trading agency with respect to orgnaization of need part finance. Exist in condition of international ground predestined relationship so below the setting of bigger uncertainty, the United States is right in orgnaization of square part finance adopts amerce, frozen assets and limitation to trade the possibility that waits for financial punish nots allow to underestimate. Among them, the punish degree of amerce and frozen assets is opposite lighter, relevant finance orgnaization of China also won't arise to this kind of punish stronger awe-stricken, after all the collaboration with Iran, Korea besides can get certain economic benefit, the Yi in still can be being promoted, medium the square ground fringe benefit in be beneficial to toward the development of the relation. But if the United States just uses SWIFT and CHIPS to cut off liquidation to pay a passageway to will give,be brought by punish orgnaization significant loss, may make business of its concerning foreign affairs or foreign nationals is immersed in break down in the round.
Future, american government may pick or much home has subsidiary bank of representative United States of Chinese commercial bank, claim to should help Iran all right (or Korea) offer the finance that crosses condition capital service or other type to serve, violated relevant law of the United States, because this wants to levy fine of a huge sum, quit this partial professional work even. Enlarge punish limits possibly still even to the branch outside condition of Chinese commercial bank, cut off its to pay liquidation the passageway through SWIFT. The case that is similar to resurgence communication may be performed again in Chinese finance orgnaization, we should have made sufficient preparation to this.
4.2 China appropriate will continue hide one's capacities and bide one's time, as good as of undersell beautiful debt " give a person with the handle "
Although CHIPS serves as cross condition dollar to pay liquidation system to be able to cut off great majority to cross condition dollar to trade liquidation passageway, but the CNAPS of the CHAPS of the FXYCS of European TARGET, Japan and CLS, England and China all takes this money or multilateral money is liquidated, do not suffer the effect of CHIPS punish. Chinese CNAPS by big pay a system (HVPS) and small batch pays a system (BEPS) composition of two application system, since trying operation in October 2002, holding the position of a RMB to pay the important task of liquidation all the time, but the potential risk of existence a priori. Besides condition settle accounts cannot be crossed when solid reality, cross time zone liquidation, outside matching international to clear the question such as systematic interface, excessive depend on SWIFT to make then China superintends an orgnaization to pay data very hard to undertake monitoring to the RMB is the biggest potential risk drop, below the circumstance that cannot accomplish a risk to keep apart, even if of the RMB cross condition liquidation to also can get the control of SWIFT, and in just do not have any speech authority as a result of the SWIFT to Euramerican forestall, data is supervised with deal with of authority be short of break the financial punish that the United States just is in in making active right is acquired hard below potential risk, in cross condition commerce and investment to go up to scruple somewhat, the in cooperating via trade normally be overcautious that waiting for the economic system below American finance punish with Korea, Iran, accomplish hard completely own.
American finance punish although the method is diversiform, but core is SWIFT, this is the weapon of accurate control and guide that when the United States undertakes financial punish, can use and ace. When establish punish object American OFAC needs to be taken to SWIFT attune hand in easy information to investigate what finance orgnaization in order to dog to trade to was offerred by punish object service, what SWIFT acts is the part of accurate guidance; Adopting in the light of punish object when cutting off the ace weapon that pays liquidation the passageway, SWIFT is to holding the position of core task more. Short-term in SWIFT below the situation that still is replaced effectively hard, avoid its ability increases pair of CIPS systems (namely " the RMB is crossed condition pay a system " ) breeding ability is rational choice.
CIPS liquidation system is the independence that organizes development by Chinese people bank pays a system. According to relevant research, before CIPS is started, the RMB is crossed condition trade liquidation can pass mode of travel of liquidation travel mode, representative and NRA only (namely " account of churchyard blame dweller " ) mode, go in order to liquidate a mode and representative again mode is given priority to.
Liquidating a mode is the mode that the capital that the liquidation outside pointing to a pass through the territory of a country finishs center of banking of RMB off shore all right liquidates, the liquidation outside the RMB place that the bank outside the condition should become is engaged in the RMB outside the condition liquidating what business needs management department of finance of the seat outside the condition not only to approbate all right, still need the authorization of Chinese people bank. The liquidation outside this condition needs to liquidate a bank to sign agreement of RMB representative settle accounts with the blame outside the condition all right later, open account of come-and-go of RMB a person of same business for its, liquidation bank is not to undertake condition RMB trades crossing outside acting condition then. When liquidation travel mode goes in executive RMB to cross border link according to the liquidation of distinct category have a difference, liquidation of HongKong and Macow goes (namely branch of HongKong and Macow of Bank of China) through big pay a system to finish a RMB to cross condition, and the liquidation outside other area goes (basically be the branch outside condition of bank of Bank of China, industrial and commercial bank, construction bank and transportation) join through SWIFT the head office undertakes the RMB is crossed condition, undertake crossing going liquidating through CNAPS.
Acting travel mode shows native bank passes the pattern that establishs come-and-go account to finish capital to liquidate with exotic nation bank, commonner in crossing condition money to liquidate. The representative is the commercial bank that churchyard has international to liquidate professional ability commonly all right, can sign agreement of RMB representative settle accounts with the bank outside the condition, open account of come-and-go of RMB a person of same business for its, act as agent then the bank outside the condition undertakes condition RMB trades crossing. Have link through SWIFT and in the RMB the churchyard in crossing border link acts as agent undertake liquidating through CNAPS all right.
NRA mode is approve of branch of bank of classics China people, course of study of condition foreign enterprise applies for to open account of settle accounts of blame dweller RMB in churchyard bank directly, through churchyard the bank clears a system or CNAPS undertakes the RMB crosses the mode of condition liquidation, applied range liquidates a mode and acting travel mode not as good as.
Can see, before CIPS liquidates a system to start, the RMB of great majority is crossed condition trade hard SWIFT of steer clear of, this also avoids to be existed then by beautiful square monitoring hard by the potential risk of its finance punish.
CIPS, namely the RMB is crossed condition pay a system (Cross-border Interbank Payment System) , RMB of orgnaization of the finance outside be churchyard steps liquidation of condition and bankroll of off shore business and settle accounts service, it is China's important finance infrastructure. Regard national level as money market infrastructure, the construction of CIPS and operation observe unified international norm, in the system design and regulation are made wait for a respect to abide by and fulfil " principle of money market infrastructure " with " important pay systematic core the principle " wait for a requirement. CIPS direct participator is to point to the orgnaization that opens account in CIPS, indirect participator needs to open account of a person of same business in direct participator. All disbursement of CIPS participator and information kind business all is handled through CIPS, this also made sure CIPS system can maintain opposite independence with SWIFT, no matter be direct participator, indirect still participator all can be avoided suffer hand in easy information to divulge bring about then by American finance punish the concussion of potential risk.
CIPS first phase already was started formally on October 8, 2015, 2 period also try at successful on March 26, 2018 go into operation move, on May 2, 2018, CIPS2 period overall put into production, accord with the line on the direct participator synchronism of the requirement. 2 period the rich sex in settle accounts mode, extensive sex of money market business, system external on the continuity of the perfect sex that the diversity of the type of durative, direct participator of serve time, message designs and business serviceability all relatively first phase has significant progress. At present CIPS backs up the system already built, can realize Shanghai advocate the real time data of system of backup of systematic Xiang Moxi is duplicate. Up to by June 2018, amount of CIPS direct participator from go up to be added 19 times when the line reach 31, indirect participator is added from 176 reach 738, cover the whole world 6 continent 87 countries and area. The orgnaization of finance of person of nearly 2400 domestic discipline exercised by the head of a feudal household that CIPS real business can cover 155 countries and area.
Although direct participator and indirect participator amount and cover range patulous and rapid, but because start have not full 3 years, CIPS relatively SWIFT+CHIPS system of the United States still is shown puerile, grow for a long time in need. The major strategy of internationalization of square banking system in regarding as, CIPS system can ensure national finance is safe not only, still can advance RMB internationalization. Be in a few RMB internationalization is most crucial years this, CIPS whether the future that grows smoothly to concerning RMB internationalization not only, square finance orgnaization and the cooperate to just can be in prospective immunity United States finance punish in also be being mattered to.
Current, CIPS still is delivering the level that exhibit flourishingly, square finance orgnaization still needs the financial punish big stick-means of intimidation of vigilant United States in, appropriate will continue to adopt strategy of hide one's capacities and bide one's time, timely avoid reason of its ability can yet be regarded as chooses. In the meantime, to the about national debt of undersell United States sound in the market, we also have different view, published on March 27, 2018 " presiding grand criticize series (the 34th period) : Situation of Sino-US trade war to He Fang? How should be Chinese government answered? " medium 3 big trap have careful analysis in relevant content. Still be the whole world in the dollar main and current fall with the circumstance that lays in a money, national debt of United States of big usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price cannot pound American economy and financial system effectively not only (American government can adopt extraordinary move completely to undertake is opposite rushing) , the effect of shrink of asset of national debt of odd United States still just can be sufferred in, be appointed possibly even to be by the United States " financial battle " initiate square. In difference of Sino-US finance domain far below the actual setting that is more than classics trade domain, china is unfavorable and active expand the attrition of commerce domain to financial domain, as good as of national debt of United States of wholesale usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price at " give a person with the handle " .
Additional, crisis of banking of near future Turkey erupts cause its this money devalues considerably, the part is burgeoning economic system money also is affected. Will look at present, outside China store dimensions is giant, although favorable balance of trade is remarkable shrink, but predict to form adverse balance of trade to appear continuously hard and the case that dimensions enlarges continuously. Dimensions of manufacturing industry of together with China is giant, the concussion makings that foreign capital pours out of will be finite, conference of the Political Bureau also serves as firm foreign capital " 6 firm " one of, although have the possibility that devalues further,so we know exchange rate of humanness civilian money, but the probability that occurrence unilateral devalues considerably is not big, more notable or it is Hongkong dollar devalues the concussion on brought mood side. As to the United States will medium square qualitative for " exchange rate operates country " anxious, we think to be below the big trend of RMB internationalization, the Central Bank reduces trend sex to the interpose of RMB exchange rate, "Free float " also be big country the best choice of dominion money exchange rate. Below this setting, the United States is nonexistent China qualitative for " exchange rate operates country " factual basis, forcibly qualitative can be opposite not only the United States and system of global economy banking also will cause distinct effect, a series of brought consequence are afraid system of global economy banking also stands hard. Although the United States is special,conduct of bright general government stranges and changeful, disparate normal, should make such choice also be met Shen Zhi careful.
