A dropped again, arrived 2700 a little bit again the following. Do not know everybody to whether still remember that literary works that xinhua net sent July 12, "A appraise value is in historical bottom, what is people still worrying? " then someone says, national appeal is received dish, go copying a copy rapidly! A many month went nowadays, case how? In July 12 that day, a Shanghai points to closing quotation 2837 a little bit, after a many month August 17, shanghai shows closing quotation dropped 2669 a little bit. Be, what is people still worrying?
Contrast to it the most apparent, stock market of United States of nothing is more... than. On these a few years of networks, the United States " break down theory " incessant Yu Er, and American stock market breaks down theory this year more rising. A common view is, american stock market had arrived the history is highest value, alleged altitude deeply cold, once steep fall, break down namely then begin! So, american stock market is very hazardous now, american finance is very dangerous now, american economy is very dangerous now; In square any petty action, get on the United States toward the road that break down more advanced. But if change a point of view, will examine American stock market from longer time span, we can discover, it had gone up 9 years greatly continuously actually! If use longer time span to look, we return meeting discovery, besides go up century outside that global economy crisis at the beginning of 30 time, it is actually in major while, rising all the time.
The US stock can drop of course, it is to steep fall even 50-80% , but need only commonly probably time of 2 years, it can restore to come the height previously, continue to rise next. Yes, the US stock has risen for years continuously now, drop greatly now the risk is bigger, this is objective law, but, whether do you discover, the US stock is be cried to want at the same time " steep fall " , rise ceaselessly at the same time, and A it is be encouraged at the same time, make you disappointing with the fact at the same time? Although US stock of the end of the year broke down suddenly, did American finance break down really? Look from historical rule, after a few years, it can regain present height again, continued to rise next.
For the person that enter the stock market to doing not have or has investment, what don't these calculate, can eat barbecue at the same time greatly, drinking beer, see those network authors boast over at the same time dozen of fart, speak carelessly stretch, laugh next, become one Le Zi; But if you entered the stock market, or the word of an investor, wrong message / the analysis perhaps is beginning to be able to be fooled you are happy, but ending is your capital anaemia, painstaking money earned by hard toil is hit water floats. You can discover from the back, those are so called the encouragement to you, it is to be in actually kill you. Someone says, turn in the stock market circuit, can let a person become reality and reason, those who say is this phenomenon. The person is such, in do not touch, perhaps touch rarely self interest when, can with " model of ablaze generosity, morality " , once more really touched oneself interest, become immediately deal with concrete matters relating to work and sober.
Same word, face different object, meaning / action is different. A few days ago, of introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad gentleman of dean of academy of Tsinghua university national condition " Chinese comprehensive national power exceeded the United States 2012 " theory a great disturbance and intense conflict were posed on the network. Original conflict of a learning line be gettinged on by bilateral and infinite raise to the higher plane of principle, atttack introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad gentleman to be equal quickly to press Chinese power and prestige at hitting almost. The author read introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad article, the data that there is pile inside and a few its oneself the comparative means of set (model) .
When having in the article want an attention, one is data problem. What a lot of data in the article use is not the number that we see at ordinary times, pass however " average purchasing power " the number after conversion, and this conversion standard is probably " multiply with 1.9 " (the standard of world bank IMF is probably 1.7) . So, article data can slant one kind to feel hopefully to the person. Another is comparative model problem. What article topic says is contrast of national actual strength, but what quotative data basically behaves however is " the current situation " , lacked " accumulate " concept, this cause bigger error easily. Resemble the fortune of a family, in those days income is admittedly significant, accumulate for a long time same more important even. For instance 2015 the 3.2 times above that Chinese military expenditure is Japan probably, but if consider before 20 old total military expenditure, china is Japan only 1.23 times the left and right sides -- two groups of data differred nearly 2 times, this contrasts namely the level is different standard vast difference.
Even if real data, also can play a trick
In addition, although there is the data of pile in introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad article, but still be not comprehensive more very; In the choice of data, compare the data that deflection looks more hopeful at revealing those; This kind of standard, referenced " announce good news does not complain " principle. For instance if calculate the word of national fortune, the United States now is 93 trillion dollar probably, china is 29 trillion dollar probably; Although be calculated according to the average purchasing power of 1.7 times, china also has 49 trillion dollar only at present, still have nearly one with the United States the difference of times. The meeting that often writes an article is clear, same data, even if true, in different comparative kind, different comparative point of view, below the case that chooses somewhat, can appear piece differ very big result. So, piece look, introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad article slants one kind to the person hopeful, it is exaggerated perception even; This kind of exaggerated degree, even if a few at ordinary times spend optimistic style to also feel some again " dare not believe " .
These are spent again hopeful person although also feel to exaggerate somewhat, but express however " Hu Da went up the Chinese's power and prestige and morale, gave compatriots with confidence, still should support energetically so " . Look in the author, this cannot say incorrect -- to general " not quite bright truth " for the masses, the information of place control is finite, when the case that sees a few bigger difference, be immersed in pessimistic mood easily. To them, of a few upbeat mood, it is exaggerated even like view, conduce to them establishing confidence, conduce to patriotism education. So, to them, exaggerate moderately like the view also has certain profit. For instance to old army fan for, 90 time of that dark period " annihilate - 8II gun carries F22 " the view of opportunity for combat; When for instance we do not have aircraft carrier " aircraft carrier no use is talked, can cope with Xiaoguo to talk only " , when for instance we do not have concealed body plane " concealed body no use is talked, be defeated to talk " .
Aircraft carrier no use should be publicized to talk when doing not have aircraft carrier
But does if these words are the state that says to make policy,the company that perhaps plans production, investment let? The country is made big politics guiding principle, the enterprise undertakes manufacturing arrange and investing a plan, of need is " seek true deal with concrete matters relating to work " data, the data of any deviate, no matter be,exaggerate, the deviate that may create policy is a mistake even. In the war, the soldier needs the cogent actual strength that knows oneself, actual strength of the other side, any wrong estimation may cause abominable consequence; Be in Sino-US below the situation nowadays, the cogent data contrast that knows both sides also needs above. Introduced from the northern and western nationalities or from abroad gentleman as give above one of personnel that provide national condition report, those who give out is too hopeful comparative result however, constitute the effect that produces bad easily to policy, this ability is the prime cause that he is criticized by a few people.
How can the data of an expert mistake cause abominable effect? We will see the case below. These days, "2 embryoes " , " alimony " the problem caused a mighty uproar on the network, somebody plaints accordingly, if early unlock 2 embryoes 10 years, which still have present problem? But the problem is, even if 2014, with chairman of Chinese mouth institute Di Zhenwu is a few experts of the representing, still cry greatly over " cannot unlock 2 embryoes in the round, will be born one year otherwise 50 million person, china cannot bear " ! Influence of this kind of view is tremendous, of the same age, this kind of view is defended by the country the committee of planning is released in news on cite; Defend Ma Xu of director of institute of committee of planning to also express " if unlock 2 embryoes in the round, will be born every year more 10 million person, can create very great pressure to social natural resources " . Went 4 years merely however, result how?
much 2016 less than 2 million hind dropped quickly again
Somebody because of this anger anger say, expert of these a few population simply by accident country by accident civilian, should find out its to weigh big negligence liability! Same, other sphere provides the data, expert that make suggestions, also be same argument. The country is such, the enterprise is such, to the individual, a lot of moment also are such. The key depends on, these information have how old concern with you. If you want to enter the stock market, so actual stock information just is useful to you, hopeful data can let your principal not have return; If you prepare to buy a house, so actual house price information is useful to you, the news that believes a few so called slogan are hopeful perhaps can let your regret be inferior to at the outset; If you prepare to select other in part, so a few " article of poisonous chicken broth " can let you miss to return right choice another times originally, person takes a lot of pities. Important is, you want to know, who are you, in what position, want to do what thing, need what kind of information.
