Bond invests strategy: Policy of near future wide credit still is raising the price of the commodities, pressure of supply of debt of 3 quarters place increases, if will not reduce risk weight further, debt of place of farther promotion configures value, extruding national debt and politics gold debt configure demand; The venture capital specified number that on the other hand the bank can release local debt is spent use at increasing to credit puts in or configure credit debt, the policy of further exciting wide credit is conducted downward. Considering pressure of local debt supply and pressure of steady exchange rate, fluidity environment relatively early days limit bear pressure, central Bank big probability maintains current fluidity environment through open market operation, but hard farther comfortable. Debt of short-term interest rate goes situation still have Xiong Ping pressure.
The first, according to media coverage, attune of hopeful of weight of local debt risk falls for 0, at present local debt and difference of national debt benefit are in historical perch level, prospective place debt releases a price more commercialize overlay capital managing, the investment appeal of local debt promotes considerably. Up to in July end, remaining sum of debt of countrywide local government seventeen thousand one hundred and fifty-five billion seven hundred million yuan, the debt that retains with governmental bond form sixteen thousand six hundred and forty-six billion three hundred million yuan, press the scale of 80%-90% of debt of bank hold place, risk weight 20% computation, can release 2.6-3 of venture capital dimensions -727379968 yuan or so, the line of credit that can release corresponding dimensions or forehead of credit debt configuration are spent, be helpful for wide credit policy be being conducted downward further.
Pressure of supply of debt of 3 quarters place is released centrally, especially debt of place of the last ten-day of a month will make in August financing area and configuration demand bear pressure, pay close attention to the rate that Central Bank fluidity manipulates to rushing. According to the announcement of the Ministry of finance, each district comes special debt accumulative total issues scale to be not gotten by September under 80% , odd forehead is spent basically will put October to issue. The case that uses completely is spent to fall in the forehead, 8, will need to issue at least September 929.7 billion, need every months on average to issue 464.9 billion, will need to issue in October about 270 billion. If consider common bond further, assume the others forehead according to special debt issue rhythm, so OK estimation gets 8, will issue every months September add debt forehead newly to spend it is about 540 billion, will issue the forehead to spend in October it is about 300 billion. The basis is calculated, predict the last ten-day of a month still had in August make an appointment with 2500-2800 100 million supply quantities of the left and right sides.
The 2nd, the Central Bank maintains policy to decide force, liquidity level is in He Yi interval, the manipulates pair of fluidity to rushing potential effect that metaphase needs to pay close attention to exchange rate pressure to fall. Since close month, the RMB devalues continuously, the Central Bank is adopted include to collect long-dated carry out reserve of risk of business foreign currency to lead rise to 20% , and limitative bank passes Shanghai from trade division FTU to put outside the condition / tear open put the macroscopical and cautious policy such as the RMB to stabilize RMB exchange rate, but, measure of the interpose before this did not turn round a RMB to devalue anticipate, on half weeks of RMB still devalues considerably, be in subsequently Sino-US and new below the concussion of interest good news that launchs commerce negotiation, RMB exchange rate just appreciates somewhat, and exchange rate of nearly two days of RMBs goes strong, may be the Central Bank increased interpose strength to have certain effect on one hand, but also criticize beautiful couplet with trade war alleviation and Telangpu store add index of the dollar below breath stimulation to go weak closely related. Here the circumstance falls, the Central Bank restarts normalization intervenes method, the dollar goes out to reclaim in be in harmony of foreign currency market RMB, indication RMB exchange rate still has devalue pressure, have those who increase interpose strength is necessary.
Prospective RMB devalues pressure still exists, do not eliminate prospective Central Bank to have the likelihood that increases interpose strength, vigilant foreign currency occupies a paragraph to decrease to constitute pressure to fluidity. The difference of Sino-US and main area, monetary policy increases and uncertainty still is in trade war, RMB place is faced with devalue pressure still exists. Additional, the near future censures Telangpu again China operates exchange rate, under the pressure that negotiates in Sino-US commerce, be necessary to stabilize RMB exchange rate, avoid to devalue considerably, do not eliminate the Central Bank to may continue to adopt normalization means to make intervene and releasing signal to devalue in order to turn round to the market anticipate, need vigilant future foreign currency to occupy a paragraph reduce pressure to increase, cause adverse effect to fluidity.
Bond market looks into: To the limit of one's capacity of local debt supply, wide credence continues to conduct
The first, according to media coverage, attune of hopeful of weight of local debt risk falls for 0, debt of farther promotion place configures appeal, the policy that is helpful for wide credence is conducted downward, at the same time further national debt and financial debt configure demand. Sign up for a report according to Chinese negotiable securities, hopeful of weight of local debt risk from before 20% fall to for 0. Before this, the Ministry of finance was announced " special bond publishs good about doing local government working opinion " , requirement each district comes accumulative total will be finished in September add newly turn to debt to issue the in principle that compare profit to be not gotten under 80% , at the same time the Ministry of finance depends on the proposal in the conference of partial bank, the commercial bank is sharing local government when special debt is issued, cast bid price floor level to answer before samer time national debt 5 workaday yield all are worth rise 40 base point or above.
(1) local debt and difference of national debt benefit are in historical perch level, release a price + capital is managing, the investment appeal of local debt promotes considerably. Commercialize a level to promote what local debt releases a price, the Ministry of finance distributes the work in the local bond of calendar year in the announcement, all point out what should strengthen local debt clearly to commercialize a level, the emission of local debt and national debt benefit difference and yield advantage difference expand ceaselessly. From March 2017 the portion begins, the benefit difference of local debt and national debt begins to expand, be in longer a perch is maintained inside time. According to the statistic of Wind, from March 2017 since, local debt and national debt issue benefit difference to all be worth maintain in 44bp, entering is to rise to 54bp more since 2018, and 10 years period local debt and the corresponding period are restricted benefit difference all is worth national debt yield to also achieve 52bp, outclass history is other period.
Local debt and national debt belong to interest rate debt together, and all belong to duty-free breed, to configuring main body character, national debt and interest rate creditor should distinguish the capital excessive price that depends on place of risk weight difference bringing. Weight of risk of the national debt before this is 0, the risk weight of local debt is 20% , capital of = of price of excessive of local debt capital leads embellish of × endowment capital and profit to lead × amply 20% , price of excessive of local debt capital is 37BP about. If did not come to a place,debt risk weight is reduced further for 0, and suggest according to the Ministry of finance, local debt casts bid price floor level to answer before samer time national debt 5 workaday yield all are worth rise 40 base point or above, criterion local debt photograph relatively the configuration advantage of national debt rises significantly.
(2) if weight of local debt risk is adjusted,be 0, will release gold of bigger commercial bank capital to take up, can use at further credit puts in or credit debt is configured, conduce to the conduction of wide credence. According to the announcement that the Ministry of finance issues, limit of local government debt was twenty thousand nine hundred and ninety-seven billion four hundred and twenty million yuan 2018, up to in July end, remaining sum of debt of countrywide local government seventeen thousand one hundred and fifty-five billion seven hundred million yuan, the debt that retains with governmental bond form sixteen thousand six hundred and forty-six billion three hundred million yuan, press the scale of 80%-90% of debt of bank hold place, risk weight 20% computation, can release 2.6-3 of venture capital dimensions -727379968 yuan or so, the line of credit that can release corresponding dimensions or forehead of credit debt configuration are spent, be helpful for wide credit policy be being conducted downward further.
(3) pressure of supply of debt of 3 quarters place is released centrally, especially debt of place of the last ten-day of a month will make in August financing area and configuration demand bear pressure, pay close attention to the rate that Central Bank fluidity manipulates to rushing. According to the Ministry of finance exposure data shows, 2018 1-7 month, the whole nation issues local government bond two thousand one hundred and sixty-seven billion nine hundred million yuan, add bond newly among them 794.2 billion yuan. According to the count chasing a pen that we use to local debt financing, 1-7 month is added newly general debt circulation is in bond 643.9 billion, special debt circulation is 150.3 billion. Combine the data that the beginning of the year of Ministry of finance publishs, limit of general 2018 debt is 830 billion, special debt 1.35 trillion, add common bond remaining sum newly for 186.1 billion, special debt remaining sum still has one thousand one hundred and ninety-nine billion seven hundred million. According to the announcement of the Ministry of finance, each district comes special debt accumulative total issues scale to be not gotten by September under 80% , odd forehead is spent basically will put October to issue. The case that uses completely is spent to fall in the forehead, 8, will need to issue at least September 929.7 billion, need every months on average to issue 464.9 billion, will need to issue in October about 270 billion. If consider common bond further, assume the others forehead according to special debt issue rhythm, so OK estimation gets 8, will issue every months September add debt forehead newly to spend it is about 540 billion, will issue the forehead to spend in October it is about 300 billion.
The rhythm that issues from August looks, issue pressure to basically be centered in the last ten-day of a month. End on August 21, add bond newly August to add up to issue 262.8 billion, among them general debt is issued 40.5 billion, special debt is issued 222.3 billion, calculate according to ours, predict next 10 days of supply that still about 280 billion is control are measured, among them special debt circulation is achieved 242.5 billion. If consider displacement debt inside, because there still is displacement debt remaining sum by July 509.4 billion, if press a requirement to finished displacement entirely in August, so bond total circulation will exceed 1 trillion August.
(4) divisional region looks, local debt the rest issues the forehead to spend main concentration to be in province of the eastpart part. The emission that we save local debt from each obtains each province in exposure local debt issued quota 2018, union limitation computation got each province 2017 2018 add the forehead newly to spend, pen statistic is chased in the collect manual that issues from bond again each province adds bond newly to issue amount, final computation gets untapped adds bond remaining sum newly be savinged each. Among them, shandong and Tibet lack limitation data, we remaining sum according to the scale of debt of two provinces place undertook estimation 2017. According to computational result, remaining sum of local debt remnant spends main concentration to be in area of the eastpart part, if 4 provinces forehead spends Shandong, Heibei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang,exceed 30% what total odd specified number spends.
The 2nd, the Central Bank maintains policy to decide force, liquidity level is in He Yi interval, the manipulates pair of fluidity to rushing potential effect that metaphase needs to pay close attention to exchange rate pressure to fall. Zhou Er, the country does newly hold hair drier of routine of policy of the State Council to meet, finance of assistant president of Chinese people bank Introduction Zhu He new is better serve hypostatic economy, alleviate effectively industry financing difficult financing is expensive concerned circumstance, answer the reporter asks. From the conference the speech looks, at present the Central Bank maintains liquidity reasonable and abundant, the finance that increases pair of key domains and weak point at the same time supports strength. Look from actual result, the system between the bank is reasonable and at present comfortable, arrived since be issued to lower levels of capital interest rate " lower interest " the effect, the strength that credit structure is optimized and supports hypostatic economy is increased, function of debt city financing restores, interest rate of advanced course bond is remarkable be issued to lower levels. Leave one stage, the Central Bank puts forward to continue to strengthen coordinate as a whole, travel policy pool efforts. Can have held to spend at the same time, master valve of good money supply, maintain do not do while liquidity is reasonable and ample " flood flooding " , the financing area level with current specification has lain the He Yi interval of the Central Bank, did not come and can not continue to raise the price of the commodities loosen fluidity, however the dredge respect make an issue of that more conducts a mechanism in monetary policy. 3 quarters consider local debt to the limit of one's capacity, the Central Bank or increase fluidity to put pair of strong capital on demand moderately, but prospective fluidity relatively the space that loosens further before this is limited.
What need attention additionally is, companion devalues continuously as the RMB, the Central Bank has begun to begin pair of strong operations in foreign currency market. According to media coverage, central Bank near future is dropped in foreign currency period the market passes RMB of short term steam again the way that be in harmony gives a dollar, provide dollar liquidity to the market, show the Central Bank has been started in tool of exchange rate of the intervention on foreign currency market. To this, we think:
To stabilize RMB exchange rate, the Central Bank restarts normalization intervenes. Since close month, the RMB devalues continuously, the Central Bank is adopted include to collect long-dated carry out reserve of risk of business foreign currency to lead rise to 20% , and limitative bank passes Shanghai from trade division FTU to put outside the condition / tear open put the macroscopical and cautious policy such as the RMB to stabilize RMB exchange rate, did not take normalization step market of direct intervention foreign currency, because this foreign currency occupies a paragraph to have no,pour out of, make near future foreign currency occupies paragraph and foreign exchange reserve and RMB exchange rate and carry out of Central Bank knot to collect data generation to deviate from. But, measure of the interpose before this did not turn round a RMB to devalue anticipate, on half weeks of RMB still devalues considerably, be in subsequently Sino-US and new below the concussion of interest good news that launchs commerce negotiation, RMB exchange rate just appreciates somewhat, and exchange rate of nearly two days of RMBs goes strong, may be the Central Bank increased interpose strength to have certain effect on one hand, but also criticize beautiful couplet with trade war alleviation and Telangpu store add index of the dollar below breath stimulation to go weak closely related. Here the circumstance falls, the Central Bank restarts normalization intervenes method, the dollar goes out to reclaim in be in harmony of foreign currency market RMB, indication RMB exchange rate still has devalue pressure, have those who increase interpose strength is necessary.
Prospective RMB devalues pressure still exists, do not eliminate prospective Central Bank to have the likelihood that increases interpose strength, vigilant foreign currency occupies a paragraph to decrease to constitute pressure to fluidity. The difference of Sino-US and main area, monetary policy increases and uncertainty still is in trade war, RMB place is faced with devalue pressure still exists. On one hand, american economy lasts to good, economic data exceeds the market to anticipate, the stock market approachs historical perch, and Chinese economy growth still faces pressure, "Wide credence " policy play action needs a course; On the other hand, beautiful couplet store second half of the year will still be added cease twice, and space of operation of monetary policy of domestic Central Bank is not large, the RMB devalues pressure still is in, bright general near future censures overlay spy again China operates exchange rate, under the pressure that negotiates in Sino-US commerce, be necessary to stabilize RMB exchange rate, avoid to devalue considerably, do not eliminate the Central Bank to may continue to adopt normalization means to make intervene and releasing signal to devalue in order to turn round to the market anticipate, need vigilant future foreign currency to occupy a paragraph reduce pressure to increase, cause adverse effect to fluidity.
