Black swan and grey rhinoceros, how be on guard these two dangerous animals?

This moment last year, 5 years financial job conference already was held end. The People's Daily is in " be on guard effectively financial venture " in one article, said a paragraph of such words:

Be on guard dissolve financial venture, need enhances hardship consciousness... prevent already " black swan " , also prevent " grey rhinoceros " , to symptom of of all kinds risk both neither can treat sth lightly, also cannot pay no attention to.

This is a People's Daily allude at the same time in an article first " black swan " with " grey rhinoceros " , these two risks and probability get the hot word of region, also know for person place gradually.

Although the Xiong Fu of money market is right the power of asset is very great, but the most terrible, animal that makes a person headache most often is not " ursine " , however " black swan " with " grey rhinoceros " .

Before 17 centuries European sturdy think: All swan are pure white, until one day they come to Australia, discover here gives birth to living black swan unexpectedly accidentally, then, they are right of swan " white is devotional " begin collapse.

Be based on the mankind on the history's a lot of similar incident, dalebu is in American finance learned man " black swan " in one book, took the lead in putting forward " black swan is academic " .

Simple for, "Black swan " those who point to is a kind of accident that forecasts ahead of schedule hard, and once appear, the influence of situation of play a game of chess often is changeover sex.

For instance in those days 3 get together cyanogen amine incident, destroyed industry of whole country dairy products almost, 3 yuan, Yi Li's share price drops to be not worth 1 yuan for a time.

Dalebu thinks, black swan incident puts in 3 features:

1, cannot forecast ahead of schedule

For instance, share the occurrence of bicycle, it is black swan to bike manufacturer of home; Treasure can of Yao Zhenhua appear, to 10 thousand divisions and king stone character is black swan.

2, can definitive to result generation of the thing impact

Division of strategy of a fund of American issued a report 2007. General of before he collected this 30 years of mark of 500 indexes go situation, computation gives year of compound yield to be about 9.5% . Be like take out 50 prices are the poorest trade day, yield turns over times almost, achieve 18.2% , but be like take out 50 prices trade best day, yield reduces inadequacy considerably unexpectedly 1% .

This research tells us, 50 negative black swan and 50 openly black swan, although occupy the 7 ‰ that statistical example total overhead counts only, but had conclusive effect as a result to final investment however.

3, although be forecasted hard, but can be proved by after the event

For instance of Telangpu be elected, to intellectual of great majority North America as good as at " black swan " , but the throne that ascended a president really when Telangpu, everybody is in again the rationality that proves this thing and inevitability.

Once somebody is consulted " god " Buffett, how be answered or be how be answered or on guard black swan incident?

Buffett gave out two opinions, it is to accept the risk that can be evaluated correctly and measures only, between the 2 searchs any seeing to be like wide of the mark risks that are do one's best, the likelihood puts the dependency that be in.

Highway of it may be said of these two days of proposals comes brief, want to come true truly it however clinking difficulty. It is probably in our investment career, want to avoid the happening of black swan, itself is unpredictable " black swan incident "

"Grey rhinoceros " concept, it is by economist rice rests at first Er · wetting gram, be in what the Dawosi 2013 puts forward on forum.

With black swan rare and infrequent different, grey rhinoceros is a kind common, the feral beast that grows in African prairie. Grey rhinoceros type of build or figure is gigantic but response is slow, you can look at it far however secure in the knowledge that one has strong backing, once it is mad,can go straight towards you before, you can unaware probably and be attacked.

If say black swan shows acting is small probability and the sudden incident with tremendous influence, what then grey rhinoceros points to is big probability and the potential crisis with tremendous influence.

Be in " grey rhinoceros " in this book, · wetting gram analysed Michelle to face the reaction of 5 phase of grey rhinoceros incident and people.

1, deny repulsion: When potential and dangerous occurrence suggestion of a new development, the person often can stem from instinct deny and repel;

2, drift along: Potential dangerous influence is not great, people pretends to lose sight of;

3, incur loss through delay diagnoses: When danger becomes Anacreontic, people can try to make a few necessary responses, but still indecisive, try in vain to push the issue to future;

4, panicky and helpless: Become serious when the problem, people begins hurry-scurry, panic spreads;

5, ego breaks down: Potential crisis erupts thoroughly, persistent action often effects is very small, people begins to break down.

Invented the Kodak corporation of film, ever was the whole world most profitable camera manufacturer, holding the market share of 60% for a time.

90 time metaphase, kodak invented digital camera, but do not believe digital technology can replace film from beginning to end however, also pay no attention to those competitor that are main product with digital camera. After 2000, digital camera got big range gains ground, kodak faces up to the crisis eventually, in next inside 10 years for many times transition, recombine, but fail to redeem declining tendency eventually, 2012 suspend payment.

So, must not the destruction of small gaze grey rhinoceros force, had appeared when your eye shot is medium when it, must cause enough vigilance!

The photograph is more accident than what at black swan the sort of have no way forecasts, be on guard the risk that grey rhinoceros sees this kind so that see, it is relatively some easier to want. Have as a whole at 3 o'clock:

1, the existence of formal crisis, property of accurate judgement crisis, make good precaution preparation ahead of schedule, do not have fluky mentality;

2, jib does not want after making countermeasure, waste time more, the result often jumps over passivity;

3, institutional be prepared for danger in times of safety, institutional balance is short-term with long-term interest, know accept or reject.

Said in front, black swan is the accident that cannot forecast, but there still is symptom to be able to be searched in occurrence eve actually, can say even, black swan and grey rhinoceros, occasionally also each other give attention to two or morethings, supplement each other.

England is for instance fair 2016 before casting Europe, flower premier and London mayor already existed with respect to pertinent question serious difference; Before Turkey lira steeps fall, supply of money of its broad sense (M2) broke up 24 times, house price rises a coronal absolutely the whole world. These seeing be like is black swan, but backside is faint emerging the shadow of grey rhinoceros.

Specific to the side of us, the large grey rhinoceros that looks so that see has 3 at least:

1, estate bubble. This is a grey rhinoceros with the largest volume undoubtedly, almost everybody looks so that see it, also almost everybody secure in the knowledge that one has strong backing, but must admit, it also leaves us closer and closer it seems that.

2, RMB exchange rate. The devalue pressure that accumulates before a few years, releasing centrally at present, but fortunately we had probed this only grey rhinoceros, gave out to answer measure necessarily.

3, the bank is undesirable and indebted. Economy is in cycle of be issued to lower levels, bad debt ratio also is met certainly when the river rises the boat goes up too. This only grey rhinoceros leaves us far still it seems that, but since discovered, must cause vigilance.

Nowadays is left have black swan, right rhinoceros having ash, the road of investment, allow to weigh and the path is far!