On October 12 dispatch, tyler Durden of Zero Hedge columnist is written civil say, be in last week, we are mentioned in the article, chinese industry appears newest concussion, the Chinese company that has 1/4 at least cannot produce enough ready money to pay accrual fee. Debt curve of China is in " Pang financing " level, and by after family name financing, be inevitable " Ming Siji hour " , and declare publicly of this one hour is worn plateful all is defeated.
Debenture dimensions of China is close 20 trillion dollar, 300% what this is equivalent to GDP, and the influence that Pang financing will bring to China is very tremendous undoubtedly. It means the bank that reachs 1/4 to borrow money to will be absolved sooner or later, recombine, debt turns, otherwise, because its are undesirable loan attribute, will greatly the debit asset of bank Zhang book kind, still can affect lender, deposit money namely.
Week 3 before dawn, general of mark of international grade orgnaization expresses in a report, industry of Bank of China begins possibly to increase capital of 11.3 trillion yuan of RMBs newly from 2020 (be equivalent to 1.7 trillion dollar) , use at dissolving bad loan problem, such potential cost is in China the place in nominal GDP occupied specific gravity to will be achieved 2015 16% .
This one word that how must come out is mark general? Mark general grade estimates, the bad loan rate of course of study of Bank of China is in was when the end of the year 2015 5.6% . In credit growth has add without decrease so below an adverse circumstance, this one rate may worsen to 11-17% . Below this kind of circumstance, to 2020, china needs 1.7 trillion dollar to be used at capital to recombine. Guard according to the most fundamental condition for also need 500 billion dollar.
Tyler Durden expresses, in addition, the person that the pace that those expect to Chinese bond is issued can put delay may disappointed. Mark general predicts the government is in prospective 12-18 will continue to allow credit grow quickly inside the month, after this ability can try to control. This means a risk to be able to rise inside the time that arrives two years.
Mark general points out, as China total debt load rises to 250% of GDP gross, debt has made one of the biggest challenges of China. And, if use the word with IIF metric algorithm, the amount of Chinese debt will be larger, had exceeded 300% now.
Mark general is not to China debt makes admonitory exclusive orgnaization. Near future international liquidates banking (BIS) had made this kind of warning. BIS expresses, exceeding credit growth is being alluded in future the risk of occurrence crisis of industry of the Bank of China inside 3 years is increasing. In addition, be in last week, IMF warning says, when Chinese credit grows, cannot last, enterprise borrower sits the debt that supports 18 trillion dollar, this is equivalent to Chinese GDP 169% the left and right sides.
Mark general expresses in the report, "We predict the debt as Chinese state-owned company is outspread, the credit ability of state-owned company can worsen further. And the tall lever of the enterprise may limit investment and total demand. And the tall lever of the enterprise may limit investment and total demand..
