Author | Allen
Last week 5 evening, rare Ma is ophthalmic (3309.HK) , say below " rare Ma " ) release be filled with alarm. Although the integrated income first half of the year anticipates this year,will increase more than 30% , but integrated profit will reduce 50%~60% compared to the same period after duty.
Profit drops greatly, share price of this Zhou Yixi Ma establishs Martha have diarrhoea 12.08% , receive a reply 5.02 HK dollar, be first under the open quotation price that appears on the market first days () of 5.35 HK dollar. This Zhou San, its share price glides again again 4.51% , receive 4.87 HK dollar.
This picture, let the grand occasion when the person yearns for IPO of the beginning of the year: 1, of 568 times " super- buy king " , open quotation price relatively release price (2.9 HK dollar) interest rises 85% , ever since a few days more considerably violent wind rises multiple, highest reach 19.9 HK dollar.
The market is ebullient, fry besides heat new outside atmosphere, because saw rare Ma is indebted,more is at in harbor two ground are capacious and ophthalmic medical treatment market.
Cut is consummate Zhou Wu closing quotation, its city is filled with rate (TTM) still is as high as 110 times, even prep above A ophthalmic hospital bibcock loves Er ophthalmology (82 times of 300015.SZ) .
Hope after all the growth with driving what does Ma have to let logically if is investor crazy be like drunk? And a such companies why can profit appear to glide considerably?
One, a what kind of company is rare Ma?
A. Professional actual strength is abundant
Rare Ma ophthalmology was in the professional and ophthalmic hospital that Hong Kong builds in January 2012 by renown cure Doctor Lin Shunchao, the company uses chain to manage mode, all leave in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Beijing have a hospital.
Rare Ma has abundant technical power, so-called " the hospital of ophthalmic highly skilled doctor " . Father Doctor Lin Shunchao ever was head of ophthalmology of harbor Chinese university and visual science department, the company has 9 Hong Kong at present hold course of study oculist, 29 China doctor, among them, 3 China doctor is abroad setting.
Additional, the company sets international advisory body, among them 7 are in 2014~2016 year obtain " oculist " periodical is chosen for " world ophthalmic character has force most 100 strong " .
B. Before market position leans
By gains looked 2016, rare Ma discharges the 3rd in Hong Kong market, market share 4.7% , 2014~2016 year company earnings increase rate is top, amount to 29.6% .
Guangdong is the 2nd big battlefield of rare Ma, enclothe Shenzhen only now. Press 2016 accrual plan, rare Ma is discharged in Shenzhen area the first, in Guangdong the province is discharged the 2nd, share of complete province market 8.7% .
C. Outstanding achievement gives prize
Ophthalmology is a profitable business, 3 years net turned over rare Ma in the past one times, by 2 2014, 1.637 million HK dollar grows 4 2016, 3.018 million HK dollar, also grew 36% compared to the same period first half of the year this year to 2, 7.433 million HK dollar.
Company 2014~2016 3 money year record respectively:
Gross income: 156 million HK dollar, 199 million HK dollar, 249 million HK dollar, hong Kong is made gave priority to camping ground area to contribute 61.3% , 61.5% , 64.8% , rare Ma ophthalmic hospital contributed Shenzhen 38.7% , 38.5% , 35.2% ;
Gross profit leads: 37.7% , 40.1% , 38.2% , and wool interest rate had risen first half of the year this year 44.6% .
Though of Shenzhen occupy than not tall, but nearly one times interest rate of ophthalmic service wool is Hong Kong, belong to quite high grade market.
Above showed rare Ma is the firm with a main very powerful factor at 3 o'clock, the market demand that and last increases is driving rare Ma to advance ceaselessly.
2, strong growth is logistic
Ophthalmology of 1. Hong Kong serves the market to grow continuously
According to international the report of Sha Liwen of well-known advisory company, the dimensions that ophthalmology of Hong Kong privately owned serves the market 2012- - 2016 compound year of increase rate for 5.4% . Predict to come 2021, year promotion of compound increase rate comes 7% .
The outpatient service of ophthalmic center is measured 2012 - year of compound increase rate 2016 achieve 5.9% , predict to come 2021, year compound increase rate can promote to 6.1% , prep above is additional two categories (privately owned hospital and individual oculist) .
2. home ophthalmology serves the market to grow quickly
Ophthalmology of Chinese privately owned serves market dimensions 2012- - year of compound increase rate 2016 for 21.7% , predict to come 2021, year compound increase rate is 18.4% , fast serve the market at public ophthalmology (13%) .
2016, hospital of Chinese specialized subject already surmounted a polyclinic to become privately owned ophthalmology to serve a classification with market the largest scale, accrual 2012- - compound 2016 year of increase rate for 27.0% , predict compound 2021 year of increase rate for 21.9% , banner and additional 3 categories () of etc of polyclinic, clinic.
Old age changes popularity of product of aggravate, electron to cause rate of eye disease sicken to rise, overlay home consumption upgrades, the demand of service of high grade to Hong Kong ophthalmic medical treatment promotes the people continuously, offerred tremendous development opportunity for Ximadi.
Rare Ma knows very well this, increase the wool interest rate of outclass Hong Kong, inland this big fat, can be it let off again? ! Rare Ma appears on the market the file will exceed clearly most probably collect available extends at home:
The net specified number of A.42.5% (about 198 million HK dollar) use at home of hospital of the ophthalmology in 3 operation buy potentially;
The net specified number of B.40.4% (about 189 million HK dollar) use at 3 ophthalmic hospitals are being opened in home.
The net specified number of C.4.2% (about 20 million HK dollar) use at Shenzhen of two satellites clinic open.
3. invests old man frequency to value, it is good that policy releases benefit
Battle array of rare Ma investment is luxurious, divide inchoate Xin Hongji and Cheng Zhiwen, does 3 cornerstone investor include Chen Lihua of chairman of Ma Huateng, Fu Huaguo border (the Tang Dynasty the wife of Chi Chongrui of the person that is the monk acted) child is Zhao Yong, Sai Jie round-the-world (the former chairman of 0330.HK) , Lin Qingxia? .
It is with Tecent exemple, the Internet below the banner + doctor of penguin of platform of medical treatment health already was in Beijing, Chengdu and Shenzhen 3 cities be born, enclothe internal medicine, surgical, oral cavity to wait. In the meantime, the plan opens 500 in the whole nation self-supporting " satellitic inn " , clinic dimensions is left and right sides of 300 square metre.
Ma Huateng becomes a shareholder, it is to want to bring into ophthalmology Tecent ecology group, endow with for civilian battalion ophthalmology can. This highlighted the value of rare Ma not only, also be rare Ma inland extend raised infinite possibility.
Additional, policy end also transmits good news.
In October 2016, defend a committee of planning to release " " 935 " countrywide eye health plans (2016 ～ 2020) " put forward to want to strengthen what ophthalmic medical treatment serves to cover a range.
In August 2017, defend a committee of planning approval is medium or small ophthalmic hospital installs medical establishment category independently, allow social force investment, undertake interlinking changing, collectivize operation.
The firm with a main powerful factor, indebted at broad market, invest old man show respect for, it is good that policy gives advantage, a picture scroll of a good future is spreading out slowly.
3, we after all overleap what?
Be enmeshed at this growth is logistic in everybody, company however the hair of unexpected is filled with alarm. Why to solve after all? See the explanation of the company:
The Beijing ophthalmic hospital that this ① group began to do business in January 2018 brings additional management cost, and Beijing ophthalmic hospital at period inside be in initial investment level;
HK dollar of ② RMB add devalues continuously, bring about this group to hold some at Hong Kong with respect to its a certain number of with the RMB the bank deposit of plan value produces exchange loss, and the countervail of interest income all that the deficit such as this cannot produce by bank deposit, concerned bank deposit already in July 2018 the middle ten days of a month is changed for HK dollar.
Actually, RMB exchange rate drops outside belonging to management layer cannot control an element, and company business also enterprise of unlike foreign trade suffers exchange rate effect greatly in that way, change the RMB HK dollar to also be in influences of pair of strong exchange rate, change character exchange rate is actually finite to the influence of the company.
We should focusing is in the first reason, why does a newly-built hospital cause so big effect to the profit of the company?
Reason is very simple, build a hospital, the investment of early days is huge, the hire before including start business, decorate the charge that reachs the side such as recruit oculist. After practice, still need to pay hire and operation fee continuously, but won't generate profit immediately however.
The personage inside course of study beforehand appraise, annual meeting of new 2~3 of ophthalmic hospital head is in deficit period, turn the ability after be filled with has 5-8 year high speed grows period. Lin Shunchao also says frankly, "The cost that builds a new hospital inside is about 5, 0 HK dollar, invest redound period to be 3 years commonly " .
Although very successful Shenzhen Xi Malin arranges operation wet ophthalmic hospital, also be to begin a whole year after doing business to just achieve balance of profit and loss, and the Beijing ophthalmic hospital that regards ability practice as half an year, create pressure to the profit of the company no wonder, besides, company the net gain 2016 also just 4, 3.018 million HK dollar.
Privately owned hospital this industry, want to achieve rapid growth, use the method that build or buys only, early days is tremendous and devoted make profit short-term bear pressure, it is the problem that one build is fond of from beginning to end.
In view of this, ophthalmology of home love Er appears on the market after financing, be accelerated on one hand and buy outspread rate, make be fostered outside body through establish and buying fund again on the other hand, when the ability after opposite maturity dare be put appear on the market company principal part, the outstanding achievement that reduces pair of companies considerably is fluctuant.
Dan Xima was not used and love dozen of way like Er ophthalmology, however wholy-owned build Beijing rare Ma.
Ophthalmology love Er has the company even consolidate step by step of many 200 hospital so, only 9 hospitals (contain clinic) why is rare Ma kept out so that live not to let profit glide again?
We might as well the book of raise capital by floating shares that farewell head reads rare Ma (P33) , the risk element related its already made clear exposure to come out.
But believe many investor overleap this element, perhaps say to do not have enough take seriously, and beyond the mark persistence has long term driving growth at the company logistic, " Ma Huateng concept " , it is even " the Tang Dynasty monk " husband of son, Lin Qingxia also buys such lacy news, fry share price higher and higher, but 100 close one scanty, the last be filled with alarm natural its down.
4, epilogue
In the field of harbor stock market that gives priority to with orgnaization investor, if lack is long term growth is logistic, sure cannot maintain share price to rise kinetic energy.
But if just be looked at long term growth flings caution to the winds logically the ground is bought, apparent this also is was puzzled by local place.
The materialist dialectics tells us, the development of aught, the future is bright, road is labyrinthian. If we see bright prospect only, and disregard tortuous path, final likelihood also is to cannot reach destination.
Photograph comparing is long term growth is logistic, hope probably the problem of profit press press that Ma may appear in domestic dilate, should cause the attention of investor more, the 94 times city that watchs rare Ma to still stand high above the masses instead is filled with rate (end now closing quotation) , future still has drop space.
The reason that the stock that prop up rises can have one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight, but want an excuse only, can let it break litre of way.
Those value line of some general director sturdily to grow logistic investor, also be the company that moment sees at the moment probably, whether does future also have rugged hill road to need ascend, think the meeting in ascend process denies damage of body and mind. If have, that mights as well whether should the consideration come out to rest stop on the way for a rest, the other day choose inning reentry goes.
