In the report first half of the year, we take the lead in announcing real market drops in temperature, "Prosperity " it is the idea below market put under surveillance only, excessive control and policy limit put ungird to come " lively " not be hot really, the agent June anticipates survey test and verify our judgement, city of nearly two months of keys is secondhand the room clinchs a deal overall fall after a rise, the city that rises in 300 cities less and less, dropping city is increasing. From the point of microcosmic market, the person that buy a house, owner and the confidence that develop business to warm up to the market are in abreaction, pessimism is growing.
Arrive from local fall after a rise overall fall after a riseSince entering second half of the year, skill is secondhand hang, the posture that different city splits up appears change direction, the posture that synchronism of different market, different area drops in temperature is shown gradually.
According to the data that conch academy monitors, key city is secondhand in July the room clinchs a deal the quantity continues on the foundation June fall after a rise, among them the early days such as Hangzhou, Qingdao, Wuhan, Changsha " fill go up model " urban expression especially apparent, the Tianjin of early days fall after a rise, Shanghai continues fall after a rise. Look from posture, from " local fall after a rise " , " annulus use variation " to " overall fall after a rise " . Although Chengdu, Nanjing clinched a deal in July,the volume rises, but former was June adjusting control is brought about " super- drop " the rehabilitate after, latter is the inadequacy that bridal chamber supplies brings bridal chamber demand to spill over to used, whole looks to be in as before low a level.
From the point of the price, of key city secondhand the room all drops under valence give priority to, major city drops continuously. It is a delegate with Chengdu, "515 adjusting control " hind clinch a deal nearly two months all valence parts annulus comparing drops 8% , 2.5% , dalian, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Changsha first quarter heat slightly fast city " by go up turn drop " , this also is one of marks that key city market drops in the round.
From limits larger sample looks originally, in 347 cities of countrywide, the city that 2 quarters rise in price the city that less and less, price drops is increasing. Major city does not have clear adjusting control in 347 cities, but the market also is in natural be issued to lower levels, and the limits of be issued to lower levels is expanding apparently.
In before go up periodic, different market, different city annulus move rise come from at changing the linkage effect of room market. Now, effect of this one linkage begins to produce retrorse effect.
The first, bridal chamber and secondhand the suffocate suffocate of the chain that change a room of the room, be issued to lower levels of two markets synchronism. On one round of ascendant cycle basically is by perfective the demand that change a room is released form, secondhand the room changes bridal chamber is big city normally method. In secondhand room market clinchs a deal when the volume drops, demand of bridal chamber market also can is not worth. Supply of Beijing bridal chamber is 17 thousand since this year, clinch a deal be not worth 11 thousand, in the market of be issued to lower levels that increases in the difficulty that change a room it is thus clear that, tall sex price is compared " be restricted contest room " go changing and anticipate not as good as, stock also is going high continuously.
The 2nd, the whole nation crosses area to change the chain of the room to rupture, different city synchronism drops in temperature. The abidance of market of city of a gleam of is low confuse the excessive outside can reducing demand, the bounds that increases severity is bought, the market of circumjacent city can return the main area track of oneself population demand, rise hard. Change a money to change as canopy exit in order, the power that 34 lines city exchanges a room to ranking city also because of " exsanguine " and slow down. Bridal chamber of nearly two months clinchs a deal in measuring the city that all glides, besides Dalian, Xi'an, other all be 34 lines city, of market of 34 lines city drop in temperature make intercity changes a room to last hard.
Look from the rule of old in the past vicissitude of the market, go up periodic and easy occurrence become divided, and cycle of be issued to lower levels can tend again consistent. Let the market become consistent reason is financial environment to tighten up by differentiation. From adjusting control since, real-estate loan interest rate is climbed small all the way tall. The money that the market expects " turn on the water " do not have as scheduled and to. Mixed this year in January in April, the Central Bank was carried out twice directional fall accurate, but borrow interest rate and market from the room look on expression, these two directional moneys are loose did not make capital many enter estate market. The reason is, strong finance superintends what cut off a money effectively with rigid credit policy to conduct method, capital enters the market to push the difficulty of tall house price to increase.
The policy tendercy with the signal that transmits according to conference of central the Political Bureau and partial newest city, short-term inside the policy that limitative room shifts won't transform, even if money keeps measurable and abundant, unfavorable also to the influence of the market overmeasure.
No matter be in,go up or during be issued to lower levels, the expression of the market and market anticipate always is to interweave each other influence. Enter second half of the year to come, we see, the market main body such as business of the person that buy a house, owner, development tends to the anticipation that drop in temperature consistent.
Demand end anticipates drop in temperature in the round. From the point of index of go ahead of the rest, in July of key city add passenger source newly to glide in the round, the inadequacy of potential demand will make later period market farther fall after a rise, the fall after a rise of the market can bring the market to anticipate again with confidence glide further.
The area that buy a house drops the inadequacy that discloses real purchasing power. The big city that represents deeply on north is secondhand of the room set all clinch a deal the area is in glide continuously, show the market clinchs a deal with in small area is given priority to, the improvement that bedding face accumulates in change a room to glide continuously, improvement is lack of power.
The market clinchs a deal cycle is lengthened apparently. Clinch a deal cycle trades on behalf of the market rhythm, trade cycle is longer, show the person that buy a house buys intention weaker, wait-and-see situation is apparent, also state owner house sells harder. The client of the key city such as major in July Jinan, Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, Changsha, Chongqing clinchs a deal cycle spins. It is the person that buy a house is immersed in on one hand wait-and-see, as a result of,also be on the other hand head pay ability insufficient.
Owner anticipates go low ceaselessly. As amend initiative expectant action, in moving price, rise in price take the main index that anticipates than can serving as owner. City of key of nearly 3 months rises in price in tone price occupy than lasting fall after a rise, owner confidence begins abreaction, reduce quoted price actively, the city such as Shanghai, Qingdao, Chengdu, Tianjin rises in price occupy than under 20% .
Development business takes the ground to tend careful. Buy the ground to regard development business as the most important management segment, of land market go situation represent temperature of one class market not only, also represented the development business anticipation to the market, besides financing end is tightened up outside, the pessimism that anticipates to the market also is the main reason that brings about land market temperature to drop, expression takes land measure to flow increasing, clinch a deal the floor price of land and excessive price rate last be issued to lower levels. According to statistic, 100 cities land clinched a deal in July excessive price rate falls 11% the following, this was 2015 since second half of the year (after the market restores last time) low.
Business of the person that buy a house, owner, development 3 person anticipate produce consistent change, and be between different market infect each other, will let prospective market go situation not allow hopeful.
