01
This paragraph of time, building city heat almost focusing was in " fry chummage " on this topic.
See not hard, country to frying chummage the manner it may be said on this thing is like stoutly one. Be in the following day namely on August 19, stay in a lot of renting business that built a direct concentration to talk to be a delegate with freely, chorion about chief.
The requirement prohibits driving up in order to grab the form of room source house price, revulsive landlord contacts the contract that rent ahead of schedule. Emphasize " 3 father check " , severe check capital financing channel, severe check drive up hire, severe check the aptitude that rent.
And debutted to inform against black intermediary special railway line again on August 21, countrywide hair makes father dozen, guard soil of the market that rent not to suffer enroach on.
A chain of measure capital ground of this cur firmly is blocked up outside the door. Same also as a warning to others, caution all people that want to do a building to rent the business later: Do not touch this market casually, also do not want to rely on this market to get rich!
After hearing this news, vermicelli made from bean starch is studied in house property I asked a question in the company. He says:
Live why to build a ministry to make so strong move quickly to frying chummage? And is lag reaction all along however on the control that frying house price at the outset? If talked about urban chief about centrally 2017, won't house price also rise into now such?
This problem is very significant, I share the answer to everybody.
Above all, " talk about " be in China is put under surveillance of ritzy other market almost, was like you to make a fault, boss asks you to drink tea. After asking you this thing face-to-face, do not work?
If do not work, good, sign a military orders form! Backside deep desire believes everybody understands.
This kind of method had better be used especially, go up in house price control at the outset so, the place intervenes the market was restricted to building city forcibly valence, still installed harden board, this is never heard of before almost on the history. Be in China so, put what thinking the canal does not consider a pipe to say only, nonexistent absolute gain weichis.
Return problem itself.
House price is high, can not afford be indifferent to, anyway everybody can hire a room to live, but chummage became tall this is washed-up. Because urban population lost living power, large quantities of young able-bodied person are held back to be outside the city, this was equivalent to strangling urban progress.
My thereinbefore also has said, chummage can react most the essence of economy of a city and market supply and demand, also be the bottom line of a city, the bottom line exposed, everything was over.
The 2nd, if the market that rent liberalizes, capital controlled the market, move price in order to attract hematic kind at will, and the gain base that current city builds rich ability to cannot prop up capital, it is to should die sooner or later dish. Collapse dish later, capital defaults landlord chummage, by tens of thousands landlord drives the phenomenon of young lodger everybody is willing to see.
The 3rd, the person that fry house price and the vested interest that fry chummage is different, the thing that does not have interests with oneself affirms otherwise choose method, normal human feelings.
As a whole, this sequela that fries chummage to bring may be not quite good, because this business has gone up the attune of landlord,anticipate arouse came, wanting to go down easily is not so simple.
34 lines city is met according to standard of salary of supply and demand, dweller self-adjusting fall after a rise goes down, and city of line of heat just a little because demand is ambitious at furnishing, for example the means that Beijing is about to rely on to increase supply quickly balances the market.
For example capital store up store Fang Yuanjiang is drawn out all right, increase for example long hire apartment to develop the market that rent with the ground, collective builds the big city periphery farmer that before resembling for example, says to turn to be waited a moment to rent with the ground.
" house price is OK and unbalanced, but chummage cannot misshape absolutely " , this is the bottom line of the people's livelihood, also be the consensus of development. Because the vitality of a city is,lean flourishingly up youth, not be so called influential officials absolutely.
Rent tell so much, next we discuss today's subject, " the room price that how judges prospective building city goes situation " . This data that later development uses is conch academy lad lets me do unscramble use, I hid self, share everybody secretly.
02
Current for market situation, air force was occupied according to the situation windward, much army deeply worried with the war of air force, still be in on the problem that whether rises to prospective house price especially dogfight. Actually in the final analysis is two keywords, " economic situation " and " the city is changed rate " .
If you are child old reader of wood, believe you can be in my article " one article understands first half of Chinese building city " last meeting arrives alertly a clew.
Whether does prospective house price walk into below one to go up situation is periodic, treat deposit condition of the dweller even, can control income namely occupy than.
And the addition of dweller income is not had at present outside two kinds of forms, it is the industry upgrades pull move inside need, ego hematopoiesis; 2 it is to take one RMB internationalization, his place sucks blood.
As to this deadline how long, cannot make judgement at present, probably next year from natural resources of oil of gouge of home of neighbour big brother, repass RMB settle accounts, china may go rich with respect to.
Of course the nation is rich turn civilian rich means cannot be to give you suddenly the bank Carrie makes how many money, let you get brushstroke ill-gotten wealth. May be only move a duty to rise through going up collect a place, reduce medical treatment, education to wait for an item of expenditure, add the measure such as safeguard of the people's livelihood.
Below good position, future sees a doctor not to spend money possibly, the child does not spend money to big education as a child. I believe this trend can come for certain, after all we also cannot think of the undergraduate can restore the university entrance exam 77 years, can apply 6 years free 9 years of compulsory education.
Tell like Mr. Cai Chaoyang: "Educational essence is to let a person courage is made to a thing rational think and judge! Since you cannot change this world, be about to learn to be not changed by world place, can expect only at the same time this world is better and better. Can expect only at the same time this world is better and better..
Change to the city rate will tell, it is building city all the time much army last straw. (suggest everybody doubleclicks a picture to magnify the picture feels a trend)
From on the graph can see, china from 1980 reforming and opening begins, the city changes the foot of rate to be able to accelerate, experience a room to change end welfare to divide room hind in 98 years especially, estate market enters commodity house period in the round, the city changes speed to be pulled quickly litre.
2017 of China often live population town is changed rate only 58.52% , be apart from the target of 70% to still 12 are nodded, predict to release 180 million person to arrive town, consideration average per capita 36 flat housing demand, just needed those who bring 6.5 billion.
And at present China enters economic transition phase now, a gleam of and second line city all are in condition of industrial structural adjustment, look from the town planning of city of current a gleam of be in population canal to accuse, so second line city will be inducted as future and carry on of population and talent advocate battlefield.
So the issue came, house price rises even in prospective big probability, so how to judge this to rise signal?
The answer is " the room lends interest rate " .
The room lends interest rate was 1980 often put forward by Deng, controlled 1998 be able to perfect, offerred business of accumulation fund loan at the same time, and time limit of the seniorest loan outspread to 30 years.
As a result of the birth that the room borrows, the dweller can be used a few capital goes the lever with bigger prize finishs asset configuration, chinese estate market receives gold 10 years, also borrow lever to cause house price because of overspend room at the same time all the way violent wind rises, asset bubble is accumulated quickly.
A lot of people borrow the room interest rate regards the accrual when buying a house to calculate merely. But the room lends interest rate is the weapon with macroscopical the most effective adjusting control of Chinese building city actually.
As above graph, turning point of price of house of the any on estate history, it is the metre that stepping on a room to borrow interest rate to change almost. The room borrows interest rate to rise, house price falls; The room borrows interest rate to fall, house price rises.
(the graph is 2017-2018 year the change that Beijing house price lends interest rate along with the room)
2017 of city of this big ox facilitate, be in namely 2015 330 new politics reduce a room 5 times to lend interest rate, and with the 7 results that break a room to borrow. After this interest rate enters area of historical cereal bottom, change a money to change PSL day volume to supply plus canopy, 34 strings also follow mad went up.
So future judges house price signal to whether rise, be about to see a room borrow the adjustment of interest rate. If one day the bank cries greatly 7 fold put borrowed, your whats need not consider, rush to buy a house rapidly, because leave town of a big ox,had gone up in the road.
At present Chinese room lends interest rate average rise 15 ～ 20% , namely 5.88% , walk along situation interval to look from the history not tall, if in the center of continue price of house of determined keep within limits rises, the room borrows interest rate to won't be loosened absolutely. And if prospective Central Bank turns on the water,stimulate hypostatic economy, preventing flood to enter the best method of building city also is to go up mix interest rate.
The rumor collapse of itself that so interest rate of those alleged Guangdong, Shanghai drops considerably recently.
03
Through 2017 so city of big ox of price of house of reason of a blame, whole now market came down calmly.
The city of a gleam of that is a delegate with Beijing has multiplied house price into high in the clouds, its goal is very simple, do not let just needed to buy a house namely, this also is the inevitable result that city of type of gold of land sell one's own things develops.
The population of Beijing and city are changed in light of now rate already all reached saturation, can pat for enrolling without more land hang, the finance income that duty mode place brings apparent estate is more dominant than mode of gold of land sell one's own things.
So the trend of city of prospective a gleam of develops the market that rent to ensure young able-bodied person to develop for hematic city namely, development shares what the policy room such as property right serves as a city to just needed population to transfer, develop estate tax to begin to pick the leek of original dweller.
Can see from inside the graph the housing that rent and the supply that share property right room are far insufficient, so its supply future the policy of main body tilts will be inevitable trend.
At the same time of estate tax publish meeting extruding the investment space of whole market, let sources of more room of investment objective skill, what optimize whole market ceaselessly is firm need to occupy than.
Before I letting remember again here paragraph time mentioned Singapore " 3 course are made " estate mode. Vermicelli made from bean starch leaves a message with respect to backstage say, at present Singapore house price also is in soare, showing 3 course to make do not have any effects.
Actually this is two concepts. The profit that 3 course make Singapore is policy room held absolutely large number, at least ensured daily life of the dweller to live. Fry the thing that how goes up not to affect everybody as to commodity house, common people is natural also won't complaints are heard everywhere, because did not involve him increase, does the family have Qian Xihuan to buy the move that you provide the room?
for instance Beijing, although later policy room is built with the market that rent, but commodity house or meeting go up, because can more and more youths want to span class, also can more and more this locality dwellers run away Beijing. Just space of this market speculation is fewer, those who change is the rigid demand with constant in a steady stream.
And the preexistence that the circumstance of second line city is city of a gleam of.
Cost of city life of a gleam of is high threatening ability is returned quickly shed second line city, as industry of second line city upgrade, the undergraduate of second line city begins to like to stay in this locality development more and more.
On the base that had population, what the city pays attention to more is market economy progress and urban construction, but this is the big project that expends financial capacity.
Did not come so although estate tax comes on stage, second line city also can lead mode of gold of sell one's own things of land of continue to use probably, because come buck is quick, only the capital talent of grand quantity supports the rapid development that has a city.
So the house price big probability of city of prospective heat second line can rise, and go up a meeting be more than city of a gleam of. Be told at the same time to the talent, second line city also can make the choice with life new opportunity.
Will tell to 34 lines city, those who pass city of this round of big ox erupt, had overdrawn social dweller deposit clean. Change a money to change allowance strength as canopy abate, market of 34 lines city gradually flameout.
Someone can say the possibility, 34 lines city also needs a city to change, the farmer also should go into town, house price why later hopeless?
The answer actually very simple.
It is the talent does not follow to go up, the undergraduate of very much line is to quicken outflow. Although the city is changed,rise, the industry that does not have a talent also cannot grow. In the end or in economy of the development that raise debt, debt of ceaseless and exasperate place, this is dead loop. Salary of the member that join annuities and official business with respect to very much now like northeast place is hair lending money.
Chinese city resembles is unripe class of a the best of its kind, all students want to study a good result in effort study. But foundation, endowment and the opportunity that are taken care of by classmaster are not equal. But all students learned how to try hard, did not learn how to abandon however.
The 2 estate stock that are 34 lines city are too big.
Well-known the money that applied 2015 changes canopy to change is to solve building city inventory, many the room that awaits a lot of cities in those days is more than the person. Through so round go up situation, very much gens having a house is holding Bao Fuxin in the arms to managed to buy 2 again 3. Real stock is ambitious measure at population.
Catch again after 2017, development business works to maintain dimensions to have work, it is taking the land is filling inventory. Real stock increment promotes further again.
After so Ma Yun says 8 years, costly least of all is a house, the house is like green after " , this argument is in town of a few 34 lines establishs.
The financial capacity that loses canopy to change the 34 lines of allowance strength to rely on oneself moreover cannot undertake large-scale city changes construction, although build, existing building stock is enough also the living population that had to have.
So furnishing far the 34 lines city that is more than demand, what does house price rely on to rise?
Rely on belief?
