"We are basic now it is empty storehouse condition, the near future is likely step up storehouse, main way is the infrastructure of center-west region and consumptive industry. But basically still be structural sex opportunity at present, can be according to policy change is in only the market is short-term super- drop wave band is operated when look forward to is firm. " Zhao Gongming of president of asset of Shanghai gigantic tide expresses to reporter of newspaper of Chinese negotiable securities.
Rights and interests of near future country kind the market fluctuates considerably, each index achieves level in succession new low, market sentiment is very low fan. Here setting falls, investor begins converse copy a copy, think bottom is not far already " buy actively set " . So, whether be already to copy a copy currently optimal opportunity? The setting of fluctuant aggravate leaves the market, how should kinds of big asset configure ability to guard " money bag " ?
The stock market: The bottom is copied to require patience before dawn dawns
The near future, aggravate of wave motion of field of A stock market, many main indexes achieve level new low: Deep card is become point to achieve by November 2014 since new low; Do poineering work board point to achieve since January 2015 new low; Platelet points to in achieve since March 2016 new low.
Hua Na area has illicit collect fund to express to media even, at present the company is cast for the most part grind the personage is off.
Of investor trade apiration falls to low. Data statistic shows, at present A day clinchs a deal the forehead has been entered " 2 " times, be in an exponential innovation is low on August 3, all A clinch a deal the forehead is two hundred and eighty-four billion five hundred and fifty-eight million yuan only. Since this year, a day all clinchs a deal the forehead is four hundred and twenty-three billion and eighty-five million yuan; And since July 25, a clinch a deal the forehead all the time under all be worth.
Financing guest also is pulling out. Data shows, financing remaining sum already dropped 11 weeks continuously, fall when nine hundred and eighty-nine billion two hundred and forty-nine million yuan of week from May 25 come to became eight hundred and eighty billion six hundred and eighty million yuan of week on August 2,
"Dawn the rising sun is born at coming dark night, market bottom comes from the panic at the extreme. When exponential appraise the value is adjusted from the high point 3 years ago up to now, each paragraphs of mood drops to make the market farther adjacent and bottom. " Dan Bin of president of Inc. of management of investment of Shenzhen east harbour expresses.
According to data of wide hair negotiable securities, became on August 3, a overall PE(TTM) from now on before of a week 15.93 times drop to 15.08 times; PB(LF) from last week 1.71 times drop 1.62 times to this week. Current A appraise value is located in the history relatively low.
"I already began ' buy set ' , do not buy 5000 a little bit to be bought again now? Now downward alarming drop, I consider grading to buy by 2000 bits namely. " a shareholder expresses, had begun to copy a copy at present, even if buy namely bedding bag also is not afraid of, because be when on the low side of market estimate value,the strategy adds a storehouse is common sense.
Nevertheless, cost of even if appraise is low already, grind a bottom to still need time, copy a bottom to also require patience. At present many certificate trade public figures think to be not the admirable dot when copying a copy.
Group of strategy of China peaceful negotiable securities shows, short-term A general trends continues to keep neuter. What the last ten-day of a month traded to the market at the beginning of August in July basically is external environment under apparent change policy amendatory to good anticipate with policy dimensional neutral anticipates. The four seasons spends the market or will greet 3 limit to change: The first, 19 4 in plenary meeting is held, big probability discusses and offer the important program of economic progress and system reform; The 2nd, october is likely fall punctual dot, fall 3 times since this year to all choose macroscopical fluidity pressure definitely bigger pay tax season, 1, 4, in July, if second half of the year falls once more accurate, or can choose to pay tax of season in October; The 3rd, the United States will hold metaphase election in November. As the progressively observation of policy effect, overlay the four seasons spends 3 change that welcome possibly, and the inventory that appears possibly next year and produce can periodic resonance, nod when the end of the year or the better participation that are market metaphase perspective.
Gold: Although run,beat the stock market but avoid no longer danger
So before the optimal opportunity that copy a copy comes, how should investor guard his money bag, let asset maintain value rise in value?
As hard currency, the first selection that gold is served as to answer the market to fluctuate by investor normally protects worth capital to undertake configuration. But since this year, of gold price go situation let a person be surprised however. Up to now, COMEX gold index already lunar string 5 join nether world, accumulative total drops since April an even more 8% , drop continuously the record that time also achieved nearly 5 years.
CFTC newest data shows, the money market of clean bull of COMEX gold futures to strong fund and fund manager hold decreases two weeks considerably continuously. Up to became on July 24, money market of clean bull of speculation of COMEX gold futures reduces 9244 hands greatly, this makes clean much storehouse gross falls to 48597 hands, for in January 2016 since end lowermost level.
Although speculation of COMEX gold futures holds a storehouse to still be only much state, but among them nominal holds a storehouse to raise 9327 hands to 172023 hands, approach the history top level, this already was successive the 7th week increases.
Why does gold avoid no longer danger? Xu Yang of analyst of Hua An negotiable securities thinks to currently what many elements draw low gold go situation: It is strong dollar. Historical data makes clear, gold and dollar show the concern that negative involves below major case. 2 it is Asian market to gold demand abate. 3 be market risk preference do not decrease, be like an US stock point to present ascendant trend all the time.
Nevertheless, with A in light of stock market contrast, golden price the expression since April still good at A. Data shows, put together of Shanghai of the corresponding period points to drop for 13.52% ; Deep card is become show accumulative total drops for 20.85% ; Do poineering work board show accumulative total drops 22.04% ; Platelet shows accumulative total drops in 20.17% .
Monida is macroscopical study the group thinks, american economy changes in duty and tenacity still is provided below capital construction bonus, but if do not have the data of brighter look,prop up, the dollar also will lack the power that goes up further. In fact, look from a few index, american economy data duplicates hard of 2 quarters beautiful the consensus that beautiful data already was the market anticipates. Accordingly, 3 quarters dollar or will still manage concussion situation. Want a dollar to still be in exalted concussion only, it is difficult that gold expects the prices that walks out of a very bright look comes.
National debt: Scenery here alone good
"Nearly 10 years gold experiences bovine city two rounds, 2008 - mixed 2012 2016 first half of the year, respectively corresponding global fluidity is exceeding and comfortable erupt with Europe debt crisis (reflect fight inflation and avoid danger attribute) , and risk of global economy be issued to lower levels rises (reflect avoid danger attribute) . But go up in global economy period, because gold trades to only interest is gotten and do not have accrual, its compare advantage general not answer existence. The investor that seeks stable ready money to shed accrual will favor no longer gold, and the likelihood changes bond to a kind of asset. " this group shows.
National debt is become since this year avoid in risk capital beautiful beautiful scenery, national debt futures presents the bull situation that unilateral goes up almost since January 2018. Data shows, 5 years period brunt of national debt futures is successive agreement from January 22 low since, accumulative total rises 3.17% or 3.035 yuan, receive a reply 98.67 yuan.
10 years period brunt of national debt futures is successive agreement accumulative total goes up taller, achieve 5.11% or 4.675 yuan, receive a reply 96.17 yuan.
Data of company of central settle accounts shows, up to by June 2018, hold of the orgnaization outside the condition national debt of nine hundred and fifteen billion two hundred and fifty-seven million yuan of China, successive 17 months maintain litre of momentum, was to turn over one times more by June 2017 relatively.
Investment of debt of dominion of Aberdeen Standard Asia-Pacific is in charge of Kenneth Akintewe to tell media, 2018 first half of the year, the major international investor that includes them inside is added somewhat to Chinese bond hold.
Braun brotherly Harriman (Marc Chandler of director of strategy of foreign currency of BBH) whole world discloses to media, many rising market fund are in urgent adjust investment model, reduce presence considerably weakness of high indebted rate, liquidity, capital pours out of pressure to be not decreased, the scale maintaining a warehouse of the national debt of rising market country of the problem of economic structure sex such as high inflation rate. This brings about Chinese national debt to gain foreign capital favour continuously.
Introduce according to the personage inside course of study, liquidity of near future market is ample, but partial bank did not join fluidity Xiang Xiaowei enterprise or credit of civilian look forward to, turn however and add hold national debt to avoid danger.
"Supply of Central Bank money is tightened up first half of the year, social financing is added fast glide, frequency of credit break a contact is sent, domestic demand appeared to decrease, economy faces greater pressure; Began in March, abroad black swan erupts, domestic venture preference is reduced quickly, the stock market considerably callback, here setting falls, prices of city of occurrence ox of national debt futures. " Duan Endian of couplet futures analyst represents the state.
Perch of futures of near future national debt wanders, niu Qiule of analyst of Founder metaphase futures expresses, present bigger difference as the change of market risk preference, national debt and stock commodity present relatively apparent seesaw effect. Because pressure of domestic economy be issued to lower levels adds element of overlay periphery risk more, sex of domestic policy level appears to change direction apparently, wide finance + the fall after a rise that the sets overlay credence requirement relaxation of wide currency is helpful for credit benefit differring, certain benefit sky is formed to national debt on configuration. But weak economy and comfortable monetary environment are right of national debt futures prop up still be in, futures of predicting national debt will continue concussion of exalted wide cut.
