Egg city is summed up now
Whole of countrywide egg price glides today, because term begins,except Beijing field the demand of stock up is propped up outside, other produce area and price of sift of the confused that sell a division. Among them range of southern market fall in price is bigger, dongguan letter establishs the market last night remnant car 20, this morning red egg signs up for 200 yuan / , drop 25 yuan! Between a long time of Hunan market a week, arrive from 248 fall after a rise 205! Following plan institute show prices of whole of countrywide egg city today:
Egg price near future takes situation analysis
About fall after a rise of this egg price, breed door want reason to see, have go up to have fall, market supply and demand decides, which have so much shady deal. The egg of count oneself, the laying rate below statistic can understand prospective prices to go situation.
Author chicken field an old factory building 10 thousand chicken, drop in temperature equipment ageing, the lowest at the beginning of August has 19 eggs only, count again today had been close to 21, laying rate restores 5 percent.
The egg is to just needed sexual goods, besides festal effect, at ordinary times demand is steady, high temperature is exceeded this year anticipate, bring about laying rate to drop considerably, the egg is supplied decrease, egg price is rising of course. And weather turns now cool, laying rate restores, the egg is supplied be in everyday growth, more what is more,the rather that food shop stock up is finished basically, school stock up has neared end, demand also is in drop. This disappear the other party is chief, egg price fall after a rise is become inevitable.
The author still is old notion, the first ten days of a month still will have business to exceed stock up in September, what egg price has small to rebound is likely, but the high point before exceeding hard, because the egg is in everyday,grow, air temperature is in everyday drop. whole, egg price had been entered drop passageway, adjacent there still is range one round before mid-autumn bigger drop, national Day hind is stabilized gradually.
Author point of view is not certain and proper, consult for everybody only. Reporting only the good news is not my style, still won't cry when egg price is rising go up, clew risk is my original intention. Benefit of good advice is harsh to the ear at going, hope person of the same trades understand.
Egg futures near future goes situation
About egg futures, the author at 2 o'clock view:
1, egg price coping already passed, enter drop passageway;
2, egg futures agio is too big, drop appear extremely easy in the process repeatedly.
Also be based on above to judge just about, of author near future advocate train of thought is to meet all the time do high empty, but emphasize at the same time, empty sheet wants consolidate step by step, prevent to rebound. Leave the storehouse end available sheet at any time, low decrease a storehouse, add a storehouse high, this kind of strategy treats the prices that relapses easily relatively reasonable.
Price of the egg after National Day can be stabilized after all in what level, decided 01 future greatly of period of time go situation, but each are bigger to this difference. From amount of livestock on hand the quantity looks, growth of month by month is objective, difference basically is opposite at environmental protection centrally produce can influence and inflationary factor, but environmental protection lacks data, very difficult accurate beforehand appraise, and inflation is entirely imaginary more, cannot judge. Author individual view, the division is produced after National Day all valence is in 3.5 yuan / jin around.
Decide about 1809 agreement 09 go these days of situation is tendercy of merchandise on hand and much air the change that maintain a warehouse. 09 remnant time is not much, prices of the much change that add a storehouse goes situation is impossible, run first with respect to edge where seeing, which edge runs quickly. At present whole of merchandise on hand slants weak, this creates great psychology pressure to much sheet, so individual view: Come loose sheet can hold an air the storehouse arrives again wait-and-see on August 30, 31 days are to trade finally day, prices appears extremely easily unusual. But congenial account trades 3 times only day, empty sheet must have been taken stop caustic, prevent profit to answer spit. Prices is strong today rebound, but day wire is contained grow hatching, show bull also does not have bottom gas, organic meeting runnings.
As to legal person door, after entering period of complete a business transaction, whether empty sheet of complete a business transaction has active right; Once choose complete a business transaction, active advantageous position becomes bull. Egg price whole will glide in September, once much sheet is forced complete a business transaction, take the egg that goes up in one's hand to be in everyday devalue, the possibility that complete a business transaction finds fault from time to tome. So legal person door is denied enter month of complete a business transaction, much air should manage a case actually according to oneself and decide.
Drop considerably in egg price today about 1901 agreement during, 01 agreement are strong however rebound (following graphs) , the author rises this Paula qualitative to rebound, not be to turn situation, because 01 do not have right now turn the main area condition of situation.
Egg attempt of 1901 days of lines
Does the high point of 01 mix future low again where? Capital gain play chess is a level, but analyse from main area, short-term look, price of the egg after National Day continues to maintain difficulty of 4 yuan of upper part very big; Long-dated look, amount of livestock on hand estimates growth of month by month, when 01 approach complete a business transaction, egg price is maintained harder in 3.5 yuan of upper part. Be different from this year last year, last year is to produce can a year, approach the end of the year more, produce can lower; This year is to produce a year when can restore, approach the end of the year more, produce can taller. So 01 innovate again high probability is inferior. (can change about be being produced this year, detailed sees: " first half of the year on the low side of amount of livestock on hand, have 863 million only, price of the egg after the section still driving? " )
Accordingly, author individual is treated of 1901 advocate train of thought still is to meet do high empty. In agio bigger case falls, do need consolidate step by step really for nothing, be in even low when, light storehouse does much concentrate on work at selected units small rebound to also had been not been. But be issued to lower levels is in in main area, and 01 when be in opposite perch again, still choose perch to chase after much, inappropriate.
Above is discussed and suggest to represent point of view of egg gentleman individual only, offer reference only, cannot regard investment as the basis, if produce loss accordingly, egg gentleman is not in charge of without exception.
(be over) egg gentleman Yao Wei on August 28, 2018
