Data reviewing
[A] A continue to drop situation, shanghai shows danger is 3100 bits brokener
Card put together points to on: 3101.3 bits (↘ 0.58% )
Deep card becomes point to: 9768.57 bits (↘ 3.58% )
Do poineering work board point to: 1844.14 bits (↘ 4.46% )
[harbor] harbor rise small, constant points to defend 23000 a little bit nearly
Constant gives birth to an index: 23049.96 bits (↗ 0.97% )
Constant gives birth to state-owend enterprise index: 9792.37 bits (↗ 0.71% )
Heng Shenggong plans an index: 3754.83 bits (↗ 0.90% )
[US stock] Telangpu assumes office day drawing near, path point to 5 even shade
Dow-jones Average: 19732.4 bits (↘ 0.80% )
Na Sida restrains an index: 5540.08 bits (↘ 0.13% )
Mark general 500 indexes: 2263.69 bits (↘ 0.30% )
[Europe] week of Europe capital stock is overall expression not beautiful
The 100 indexes when England is rich: 7208.44 bits (↘ 1.15% )
French CAC40 index: 4841.14 bits (↘ 0.47% )
German DAX30 index: 11596.89 bits (↗ 0.66% )
[bond]
10 years period national debt yield: 3.2584 (↗ 6.96BP)
Type of impawn of the of the previous night between the bank counter-purchases interest rate: 2.974 (↗ 83.98BP)
Type of 7 days of impawn between the bank counter-purchases interest rate: 3.566 (↗ 118.61BP)
Type of 14 days of impawn between the bank counter-purchases interest rate: 3.6493 (↗ 71.35BP)
[foreign currency]
Dollar index: 101.13 (↘ 0.32% )
Among RMB exchange rate valence: Dollar / RMB 6.8568 (↘ 0.63% ) , euro / RMB 7.2878 (↘ 0.77% ) , 100 yen / RMB 5.9809 (↘ 1.09% )
[remarks: Time of afore-mentioned all data statistic up to on January 19, 2017 (Zhou Si) ]
Policy is unscrambled
Reform of agricultural supply side gets attention, an article or have deploy
This year " a file " or in January the last ten-day of a month comes the first ten days of a month was released in Feburary, and " sex of structure of agricultural supply side is reformed " or will become this year " a file " key keyword. A central file, point to the first document that the State Council of Central Committee of Communist Party of China sends every year formerly. The Central Committee of Communist Party of China came to released what give priority to a problem with agriculture, country and farmer 5 years continuously 1986 1982 a central file, to the country reform and agricultural development make specific deploy. Since 2004 in the center of release 13 years continuously again with " 3 farming " (agriculture, country, farmer) a file that gives priority to a problem, emphasized " 3 farming " the socialistic modernization period that the problem is in China " Chongzhongzhi is heavy " position. Up to now, "An article " the proper-noun that has become the Central Committee of Communist Party of China to take rural problem seriously.
Chart 1: Release 13 years continuously with " 3 farming " a file that gives priority to a problem
Since the Central Working Conference end 2015 after putting forward, the policy logic of backside of reform of agricultural supply side is ceaseless aggrandizement, its core depends on resolving the contradiction that agriculture of current our country develops: High cost of unbalance of sex of structure of produce supply demand relations, production and agricultural zoology environment are exasperate.
1) unbalance of sex of occurrence structure of produce supply demand relations. In recent years, volume of the output of our country produce, import and stocks " 3 volumes rise together " , close temporarily store, the policy that ask city is screwy market price case, of price of domestic and international produce hang the phenomenon that makes produce market occurrence stocks and import volume are added together.
Chart 2: Price of domestic agriculture products is common prep above imports valence
2) agricultural production enters high cost period, home closes store efficiency of exorbitant, production passes the price low. Cost of production of our country main produce is climbed ceaselessly litre, with compared 2010, the average cost of 3 kinds of commissariat rose our country paddy, wheat and corn 2015 47% , the average cost of two kinds of oil plants rose earthnut and rapeseed 60% .
3) agricultural zoology environment is exasperate, pollution of agricultural face source is serious. Our country chemical fertilizer makes dosage is on perch inside global limits, according to world bank data, chinese chemical fertilizer made dosage makes an appointment with every hectare 2013 557 kilogram, the United States is every hectare only 140 kilogram, create the serious problem that in recent years source of domestic agriculture face pollutes. In addition, farmland quality drops, the problem aggravate such as groundwater pollution zoology aggravation and risk of produce quality safety, future drives green development and resource are sustainable use imperative.
Chart 3: Chemical fertilizer of every hectare farmland makes dosage main the country is comparative (kilogram)
"Sex of structure of agricultural supply side is reformed " on the meeting of central country job that in December 2015 the bottom holds by put forward formally first, requirement " exert oneself strengthens reform of sex of structure of agricultural supply side, improve quality of agricultural supply system and efficiency, make enough, breed and quality agree with produce supply measure consumer need, form a structure truly the produce available supply with reasonable, strong safeguard " . Subsequently a file 2016 " a certain number of opinions that about fulfilling development new concept accelerates agricultural modernization to achieve comprehensive and comparatively well-off goal " also have " increase innovation drive strength, push reform of sex of structure of agricultural supply side, accelerate change agriculture to develop way, maintain agriculture to stabilize development and farmer to be added continuously close, go yield safety of efficient, product, resource the agricultural modernization road with managing, friendly environment, drive new-style town to change enter in all with hurried of drive of double round of construction of new rural area, each other " state. Conference of conference of near future the Political Bureau, central economy job and conference of job of the country central emphasize often " sex of structure of agricultural supply side is reformed " the significant position in reform, relevant program, opinion also comes on stage in succession, spend the pressing sex that reforms with structural sex to agricultural attention it is thus clear that.
Agricultural supply side reforms driving industrial way: 1) short-term innovation is main the task depends on produce going inventory, improvement produce price forms a mechanism, urgent affairs is to drive the corn with the most serious unbalance of supply demand relations to go inventory, the business of corn deep treatment that beneficial of benefit feel better handles at the low of inventory of policy sex produce; 2) the premise that reform of agricultural supply side advances continuously depends on system of agricultural property right reforming, this is dimensions is changed run the base that reachs agriculture to produce efficiency to promote, reform of prospective land system advances the land below to be on the move board piece will be benefited continuously; 3) what agricultural supply side reforms is medium long-term prospect depends on agricultural modernization and dimensions changing, the fractionize domain such as the new-style chemical fertilizer related breeding of informatization of machinery of agriculture of benefit good high end, agriculture, biology and green agriculture, pesticide.
Heat focusing
Macroscopical
Beautiful couplet store the official is published sum breath process view, overall slant eagle, the tendency is added breath
The near future is digital beautiful couplet store branch chairman is mixed to economic situation of instantly United States beautiful 2017 couplet store add breath process to express individual view, deflection of clique of overall view eagle is apparent. After Telangpu will be elected as American president last year in November, yield of American national debt rises greatly, have before this intense the st. louis couplet of columbine group liability store chairman James Bullard changes a view very quickly, think to needed to add 2017 cease, and beautiful couplet store should begin serious consideration " shrink watch " . The near future, beautiful couplet store reserve bank president has 12 areas federal to predict 5 times to will add breath 2-4 this year second, every time 0.25 percent, great majority thinks the likelihood is added cease 3 times. This is accorded with go up month of beautiful couplet store the anticipation that announce, mirrorred the to regular monetary policy regression below economic stability situation.
Chart 4: Near future beautiful couplet store official opinion on public affairs
The beautiful couplet that the basis announces store summary of conference of discount interest rate shows, 12 places couplet store there are 11 to be in in the bank discount interest rate was moved to 1.25% on the requirement on 13-14 day conference in December 2016, than 2 will increasing when the conference in November. Have bright Buddhist nun only Abolisi couplet store voting requirement maintains discount interest rate to be in 1% changeless. On December 14, beautiful couplet store agree with 11 places couplet store requirement, interest rate of key target policy goes up in the meantime. In without outside uncertainty concussion falls, the abidance that estimates American economy anabiosises will prop up added the judgement that ceases 2 times 2017, need pays close attention to interest rate to increase the influence of market of pair of bond, stock, estate.
The stock market
Annals season begins, periodic industry hopeful goes up
This year the beginning of the year, the stock market ever appeared transitory make a good beginning, main reason is the market goes year of be anxiousing of the bottom by card bogus, the mood is in " should not drop " hind brief rehabilitate. But, monetary environment turns the crucial factor that tightens this to affect the market continuously still is in: Although short end interest rate fall after a rise, but the 3 months SHIBOR that area of token metaphase financing anticipates trades 61 times continuously sun rises, last week more jump considerably litre. The limit inflection point of fluidity (it is at least 2 rank inflection point) before appearing, give the systematization chance that present worth must participate in harder. Be in last week suffer PPI to rise considerably, IPO is issued accelerate wait for an influence, the index drops, in small achieve drop bigger. Announce last week PPI will rise December 5.5% , exceed the market to anticipate considerably, cause the risk that prospective inflation and fluidity tighten up; The near future goes up bigger mix change a subject occurrence callback of relevant company share price; Effect of circumfluence of the capital after the section ends, the index is propped up abate.
Chart 5: Card put together points to on with do poineering work board show the near future goes situation
Financial domain goes lever and reform of side of traditional industry supply are advanced at the same time, periodic kind of firm rock in midstream that state-owend enterprise hopeful makes the market. Solved exert oneself a batch of risks to nod 2017, debt city goes the lever, business outside reducing insurance fund to invest stock market scale, bank to express is brought into superintend etc will advance stage by stage. Restrain asset value bubble, maintain exchange rate to be in reasonable interval, credit dilate will put delay, fund value will carry litre. So the monetary policy of dovish neutral is worth the integral appraise of depress stock market. Reform of side of supply of periodic industry benefit from benefit from and cycle pick up, gain anticipates rise to rise the share price that prop up; And the gain with growing sex exorbitant industry anticipates be faced with cash pressure, the likelihood appears the Si Shuang that wear dimension is killed. Periodic industry goes producing can, annex recombines and mix change be helpful for producing scope effect, improve management efficiency, enhance price ability, the gain ability of the enterprise will promote gradually, outstanding achievement will be improved gradually, the appraise of the company is worth hopeful to rise. Furnish especially the industry such as the coal that side reform advances mainly, steely, petrifaction, mix the industry such as the oil that changes a key to advance, war industry, civil aviaton, railroad. Enter annals after exposure period, the company with better outstanding achievement takes the lead in publishing annual report, hopeful drives relevant company and industry share price to rise. Below the double action that in appraise the value falls to pick up with outstanding achievement, periodic hopeful concussion rises.
Bond market
Interest rate of the capital before the Spring Festival goes up, financing area whole slants close
The element that financing area disturbs before the Spring Festival basically has two: It is MLF expires. On January 18, 19 days, 3 days this 21 days, share 334 billion yuan of MLF to expire, the market whether is inevitable kink met all right at the person add of full specified amount is made, then can form panic and report is on capital interest rate. Be not Ji Mo currently fortunately, of short duration need not worry about the tie of MPA; Add makes MLF do not need additional gage, won't use up the HQLA in LCR further. So, the level of psychology of influence more consist in that MLF place creates. 2 it is the Spring Festival takes a money. The commercial bank cannot foretell well and truly of one's own profession take a money, people bank also cannot foretell the change that whole bank system pays fully, the fluctuant meeting that because this takes paragraph dimensions blame,expects causes the degree of tightness of capital market money rate.
Interest rate of the capital before the section goes up is normal, main reason is take before the Spring Festival show demand to increase apparently. Other characteristic sums up area of the financing before the Spring Festival as follows: 1, the 2-3 before interest rate is being counter-purchased to appear bit higher in the section before the Spring Festival is workaday, is not to have a holiday before today. 2, interest rate of the of the previous night before the Spring Festival goes up extent difference is bigger. Mixed 2011 went up 2012 extent ever exceeded 400BP, but after the Spring Festival passes, rapid fall after a rise. 3, after tool of adjusting control of Central Bank monetary policy is transformed to valence by the quantity, spring Festival around counter-purchases interest rate stability bandwidth to reduce, among them very smooth 2016.
Chart 6: Before the Spring Festival 10 trade interest rate of day of the previous night is inertial go up
Go lever can undertake continuously. Conference of central economy job puts forward " should defend the position with accuse financial venture to be put more significant " hind, central Bank morrow namely with " the conduct financial transactions outside closing chief to be expressed is brought into macroscopical and careful evaluate answer the reporter asks " undertake echo to conference spirit, but silver-colored inspect still can have no apparent action. According to act law of the government, conjectural superintendency branch (if silver-colored inspect is met) allot relevant file in Spring Festival around likely (be like " business of commercial bank economy supervises administrative measure " ) , start superintend go lever process. Look from the influence to the market, superintend the means that uses next hair documents to go lever, move what the gender is means in order to move reduce expenditure to go than the Central Bank lever is more acuteness. The Central Bank goes in money market lever, the means that can use progress step by step increases strength stage by stage, and the room that has fine tuning everyday; Superintend go lever, the instant can be caused to pound namely when the file allots (although have,transfer period arrangement also is met such, be transferred very hard because of the panicky mood of the market period alleviate, this bring into MPA from the conduct financial transactions outside the watch can see in incident) , and once dispatch is very difficult readjust.
Capital negotiable securities is changed
Head the odd housing ABS that rent is issued successfully
On January 11, long rent apartment of magic square of apartment operation business avowed " magic square apartment is fiducial be benefited authority assets supports special plan " establish successfully already, a negotiable securities of assets of industry of single boarding house that makes domestic ABS issue the history to go up turn a product. Current, each investor already finished subscribe to trade, collect capital total is 350 million yuan.
In June 2016, general office of the State Council releases " a certain number of opinions that be bred about accelerating and develop housing to rent the market " in, put forward clearly to want to increase policy to support strength, encourage financial orgnaization according to comply with law, the risk can accuse, the principle that commerce can last, to housing the enterprise that rent offers finance to support, this includes to support an enterprise to issue negotiable securities to turn a product among them. Lend policy express, this the project becomes magic square boarding house a negotiable securities of assets of industry of single boarding house that Chinese ABS issues the history to go up turn a product. This product deadline is 1 - 3 years, use first step ／ sub pay a mechanism, among them first step sets 3 file in all, in all be being obtained, sincere letter card judges the AAA grade that award, average interest rate is first step about year change 5% . Current, the project already obtained Shanghai stock exchange to hang out one's shingle make over consentient case, subscribe capital already arrived entirely Zhang, subscribe just includes the large finance orgnaization such as many state-owned bank, place bank and fund.
Magic square apartment is fiducial be benefited the boarding house of part of 30 place property that authority assets sustains asset of special plan ground floor to be 3 stature companies of magic square China and its Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou to manage came in June 2016 in June 2019 hire income. Property of apartment of this 30 place is aggregate the area that rent 129 thousand square metre, with " the apartment of date of specific house number " the hire income that produces regards a pool as asset, into pool room number is 4014.
Long gain dilemma still is faced before hiring apartment to look, need is many and persistent cash natural resources props up its business to extend, what seek low cost because of this need is long term capital, this magic square apartment issues ABS product photograph to compare Xiang Zhonghang fiducial and direct obtain loan to have an advantage more, but integrated capital cost is higher still. Chief expresses related magic square apartment, difficult, cost remains financing of industry of domestic boarding house high common phenomenon, but apartment is the type of main base property that international REITs and capital negotiable securities influence the market, after this project is mature, will make a when give an enterprise for a long time hematopoiesis important medium of communication. Future, magic square apartment still bales the asset that is aimed at different level negotiable securities changes a product to undertake emission.
