What is to go against periodic factor

Soon RMB exchange rate should be defeated 7, but it still goes up after all came back.

On August 15, off shore RMB add dollar dish in lowest touchs 6.9467, from 7 yuan of col only the col of 500 much base point; With day, in bank RMB add dollar also was to achieve a year many to come new low newspaper 6.9331. Soon RMB exchange rate is about to drop defeat 7 yuan of col, but subsequently the callback of dollar index makes a person collect the chance that gets breathing again, and foreign currency trades one paper announcement of the center announces this round of RMB devalues thoroughly again of short duration comes to an end.

On August 24, chinese foreign currency trades central night announcement says, the RMB is right price quoted price restarts " goes against periodic factor " among the dollar. Message, the RMB rises with respect to quickness violent wind, already stabilized at present in 6.81 around.

So the issue came, after why going against periodic factor to had appeared every time, the circumstance that can RMB exchange rate appear to go up urgent greatly? What is this goes against periodic factor after all?

What is to go against periodic factor

Will be made clear first what is going against periodic factor? Precise spot says, going against periodic factor is influence RMB the index of a parameter of intermediate price, when computation, carry price of pair of on one day of closing quotation relatively the influence with fluctuant money of basket of the eliminate in the amplitude of intermediate price, the exchange rate that gets basically reflective market supply and demand from this changes, repass goes against periodic coefficient to adjust get " goes against periodic factor " . Go against periodic coefficient to go by each quote according to economy market of main area change, foreign currency arranges the proper motion set such as periodic degree. The " of working group of exchange rate of " of mechanism of self-discipline of foreign currency market that goes to take the lead with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China sums up relevant experience, the proposal quotes intermediate price model by price of original " closing quotation + " of change of exchange rate of one basket money is adjusted for price of " closing quotation + exchange rate of one basket money changes + go against periodic factor " .

If use data fair show will convey,

Go against element of supply and demand of market of periodic factor = / go against periodic coefficient = (on price of day closing quotation - go up day of price intermediate - * of change of exchange rate of daytime of one basket money adjusts coefficient) / go against periodic coefficient

Feel special awkward-sounding, very fathomless also, this was opposite, if good understanding everybody can not forecast exchange rate to go up dropped. Fasten first urgent, we come to those who look to go against periodic factor be born course;

On May 26, 2017, go against periodic factor to be rolled out first, the setting at that time is to amend the ego aggrandizement that one-way market anticipates and " of RMB exchange rate to demote easily to rise the feature of " hard; This year year January, our country crosses area capital flow and supply and demand of foreign currency market to tend evenly, right now " goes against periodic factor " to adjust to neuter. It is this month the 3rd 24 day " go against periodic factor " restart, "" of raise the quota stabilizes the purpose abundantly clear that RMB market anticipates.

Go against periodic factor to appreciate to the RMB the effect is distinct

Since going against periodic factor to come out oneself, altogether affected exchange rate price 3 times, it is two to devalue when, it is to appreciate (when appreciating, adjust for neuter, can inspect as the way that changes processing infirmly) , we come to what when seeing this twice devalue, join counter the impact after periodic factor respectively;

For the first time: Arrived on April 14, 2017 on May 12, dollar index drops from 100.5 concussion to 99.2, and valence is had no not only among RMB add dollar appreciate, devalued to even more 208 a little bit from 6.874 accumulative total instead.

During this, dollar index just breaks away from the perch that " of bright general prices issues " spy, have not take dropping trend clearly continuously. When add dollar exchange rate cannot drive if RMB in dollar index to go weak timely appreciate, so 16 years dollar index concussion walks along according to strong experience, once dollar index turns and pick up, exchange rate of RMB add dollar will approach the crucial point of 7 once more again. Fine study the matter that during this RMB " goes against situation " to devalue, basically devalue in what bring at element of market supply and demand force is too powerful, appreciate to what sold place of change of dollar exchange rate to bring force, this also is the " unilateral that institute of Central Bank government says the market anticipates ego aggrandizement " . because of such, the Central Bank introduces go against periodic coefficient, undertake filtering appropriately to element of market supply and demand, the intent corrects the problem that exchange rate of RMB add dollar cannot appreciate effectively.

The 2nd, namely from August 24 up to now, how long does specific meeting still have need checking card continuously, but more apparent is, once the Central Bank introduces latter to restart after going against periodic factor to pass, exchange rate of the RMB inside short time can appear the evidence that rise. Change character, former can make exchange rate appreciates.

Go against periodic factor to appreciate to the RMB the effect is distinct

So the issue came, be to which part in periodic factor go against after all affecting exchange rate price to change?

Just said, going against periodic factor is a formula, include a few factor, but gene is particular point to what index, the government was not made clear to the market.

Nevertheless, the research organization was made to this a few calculate a report.

Fill the discovery after research high, the RMB daytime that day trades before going against cycle adjustment factor to basically depend on goes situation -- average for, RMB daytime trades in every devalue a drop, will cause morrow RMB intermediate price contains a level to go strong to restrict 0.7 drop relative to CFETS model concealed.

Fill an evaluation high to say, with respect to operation level character, go against periodic factor to make a government OK through set intermediate price and issue policy how-to, then affects exchange rate, and no longer market of only and real foreign exchange operates this one way (this action can drain foreign exchange reserve) .

Last year in August, negotiable securities Xie Yaxuan also was opposite action business to undertake about going against periodic factor one is calculated, the experiment makes clear, in introduce 20 after going against periodic factor to trade meridian, the contribution that picks up to RMB exchange rate everyday is 89 base point, or 0.0089.

With the month, fact of Cheng of director of department of research of labour silver-colored international, chief economist also released to calculate a report, consider to make clear, in introduce after going against periodic factor (5.31-7.30) , the range that anticipates administrative day all guides RMB add dollar to appreciate is as high as 61.9bp, outclass before this (4.1-5.26) horizontal 35.5bp. After and introduce going against periodic factor, anticipate government is practical to the RMB generation appreciates the probability of the influence is 61.4% , and the probability before this is only 45.9% .

The place on put together is narrated, go against periodic factor to appreciate to RMB exchange rate having distinct effect, because price price mechanism is original among our RMB opaque, join after going against periodic factor, be equal at be in opaque went up to add a faintness again, but if guide with eventuate all along looks, former make undoubtedly again stabilization arrived since RMB exchange rate. A word, before going against periodic factor to appear, RMB exchange rate was passed certainly not small devalue, had appeared, exchange rate also can stabilize an a short time basically.