? Appear this year reduction of output of summer grain crops, besides adjusting a structure actively, soup also becomes a main factor.
National statistic bureau announced data to show recently, countrywide summer grain crops reduced 3.06 million tons than 2017 2018 (6.1 billion jins) , drop 2.2% . Among them grain crop reduces 3.1 million tons than 2017 (6.2 billion jins) , drop 2.3% .
In statistical caliber, the cereal that summer grain crops includes summer harvest, legume and potato kind. Among them, summer harvest cereal basically includes the other cereal such as wheaten, barley, oaten, buckwheat.
This year, china is wheaten advocate the calamity weather following one by one that produces a division will raid, the reduction of output of this and summer grain crops is put in stronger correlation.
Those who deserve attention is, because in recent years China popularizes the order of high grade wheat to change energetically,cultivate, make the application rate of parcel area drops 30%~50% . Order is changed although conduce to those who avoid traditional and concentrated drilling to appear be short of a seedling to break the ridge in a field, phenomenon such as seedling of a knot in one's heart,cultivate, but aggravate of degree of wheaten reduction of output can be brought about in weather calamity the year's harvest.
The soup that following sb's heels and comes
Country of national statistic bureau manages Huang Jiacai of high count division expresses, the reduction of output of total output of summer grain crops, decrease because of the area and reduction of output 860 thousand tons, drop because of per unit area yield and reduction of output 2.2 million tons.
And in element of these two reduction of output, cannot leave the effect of abominable and natural weather.
For instance, during Nian Qiudong is sowed on, partial area experience lasts weather of overcast and rainy, the partial area paddy such as Jiang Huai cannot be reaped in time vacate stubble, affected wheat to sow, this is brought about sow an area to drop.
Huang Jiacai says, during Qiu Dong is sowed, henan and other places is local experience lasts rainfall weather, partial cornfield is sowed period defer 15 to 20 days, lukewarm inadequacy is accumulated before wheaten winter, go against the Zhuang Miao before forming a winter and safe live through the winter; In Pure Brightness season, the jointing booting that is worth wheat to grow is crucial period, the wheat such as sea of yellow the Huaihe River advocate produced an area to suffer big range to drop in temperature substantially weather, affect number of wheaten spic bead to form; During form a vesicle is harvested, the partial area experience such as Anhui is long weather of overcast and rainy, precipitation slants much, sunshine is insufficient, form what affect wheaten grouting and crop not only further, still bring about wheat to sprout mildew changes, influence character.
Assemble easy advisory limited company according to Shanghai (abbreviation JCI) issues research report shows, at the beginning of April 2018, chinese north is major the area appears weather drops in temperature considerably after high temperature first, wheat is in turn green jointing period, heibei, Henan and Shandong area are local and wheaten freeze injury is stricken be hit by a natural adversity and serious, cause withered wheat or reduction in production of spic is empty and large area.
According to official data statistic, drop in temperature by force this year cause wheaten and serious area sufferring aspic to make an appointment with 1 million mus, 0.3% what occupy countrywide wheaten gross area about.
Cloth luck overcomes farming letter group to study country of chief inspector forest sends reporters of pair of the first finance and economics to say, 2018, reduction of output of summer grain crops is given priority to with wheaten reduction of output, extent of early rice reduction of output is lesser. He analyses the main reason of reduction of output, besides in last few years commissariat price lasts low place brings about cultivate the area is small to decrease beyond, unusual weather brings about per unit area yield to drop is the main problem of this reduction of output.
Shi Wei of analyst of Director JCI wheaten expresses to reporter of the first finance and economics, 2017 since autumn planting, growth period of Chinese winter wheat encounters a variety of calamity weather are pounded continuously. The effect is the most serious is, at the beginning of this year April pour spring chill and the abidance of the last ten-day of a month in May rainfall, especially wheaten grow in quantity and high grade and wheaten order change because experience is great early spring not withered wheat of limits freeze injury, perfect bead to gain ground further, the market thinks generally, 2018, wheaten output falls to already was become finality. Different orgnaization is evaluated always produce drop 3 million - 7.5 million tons, will pull at the same time change this quarter (note: Point to in July 2018 - in June 2019) wheaten import volume will increase compared to the same period, the likelihood is controlled to 5 million tons.
Need is a bit more compensatory, the promotion that wheaten order turns dimensions to cultivate also accentuated in weather calamity the year's harvest degree of wheaten reduction of output.
Shi Wei says, stem from the need that moves a structure, the order that in recent years China extends high grade wheat energetically is changed cultivate. This makes the application rate of parcel area can drop 30%-50% , and in weather calamity the year's harvest, bring about the aggravate of degree of wheaten reduction of output easily.
He says, this northward place in wheaten turn green jointing period appears pour spring chill, heibei, Henan and Shandong area are local and wheaten freeze injury is stricken be hit by a natural adversity and serious, a very main reason depends on, farmer is used to commonly increase kind of dosage to promote per unit area yield to rise, and dimensions changes order to plant wheat more standardization, once confront disaster, crop reduces tradition of meeting prep above to grow way, this is not the problem of breed itself existence of high grade wheat.
Strong weak anything resembling a tendon or vein is high grade and wheaten unbalance of supply and demand
In recent years, chinese wheat produces per year a quantity to be about 110 million - 115 million tons, besides the wheaten demand of contented home, second wheat uses the part at feed demand. Current, chinese wheat is main with in muscle wheat is given priority to, wheat of high grade strong anything resembling a tendon or vein and scale of weak muscle wheat are dinky, occurrence wheat gross is supplied enough, but the situation of structural in short supply.
According to national grain oil information center data shows, current China is high grade wheat of strong anything resembling a tendon or vein cultivates an area to be in 15 million mus probably. As " high grade wheat " the propulsion of the project, the area of Chinese high grade wheat will appear to rise situation steadily henceforth, the scale that dimensions cultivates also is met year after year rises.
Research report is narrated to mention before, strong anything resembling a tendon or vein and the unbalance of supply and demand with losing high grade and wheaten muscle, it is the main reason that Chinese wheat imports.
Current, china is high grade crop of wheat of strong anything resembling a tendon or vein is only 3 million - 4.5 million tons. As people living standard rise, the demand to high grade and special wheat however year after year rises, year demand is achieved 5 million - 7 million tons, year breach of supply and demand is in 2 million - 3 million tons. The utility of high grade wheat depends on, the biceps of flour is stronger, bake the biscuit that come out to be jumped over loose and goluptious, and should make cake and cookie, be about to use weak strength flour, the cake able person that such doing come out is met crisp.
Lin Guofa is analysed, weather element brings about wheaten crop and quality to give now to fall this year, high grade wheat is supplied slant close, the price slants continuously strong. Predict the fourth quarter, high grade wheat still has rise certainly space.
2017, chinese wheat imports before 3 of the country, it is Australia, United States and Canada respectively.
This year on July 6, sino-US trade friction is formal open, first-run each other is added impose custom duty of trade of merchandise of 34 billion dollar, include the produce such as soja, corn, wheaten, rice, broomcorn, beef, pork, rasorial, fish, milk products, nut and vegetable.
Although Chicago Commodity Exchange (CBOT) wheaten price also soja of follow adjacent pool and corn market fall situation, but because Chinese wheat imports origin country diversity and changeover are agile, bring about Sino-US trade war to be supplied to domestic wheat be anxious to be affected directly with the price not apparent.
Shi Wei expresses, although the United States is in China, rank in wheaten entrance country 2, but Chinese wheat imports origin country changeover is agile, since this year, policy of wheaten to Russia and Kazakstan Si Tan import also is in China to relax gradually, 2013 - the country that produced 2017 store wheaten reserve total 70 million tons of above, short-term in light of, chinese wheaten market level suffers Sino-US trade friction to affect not quite.
