At the beginning of August, civil administration ministry is released " the society developed statistical bulletin 2017 " , opposite goes one year countrywide marriage data had statistic.
2017 the marriage of outback dweller number and marry lead the downtrend that continued to go a few years -- marry the outback dweller that register is ten million six hundred and thirty-one thousand pairs, than going up year drop 7 ％ , marry among them rate for 7.7 ‰ , than going up year reduce 0.6 thousand a little bit.
This occupies the wide attention that caused public opinion, the reporter is opposite through comparing each statistic data, link urban development, if make conclusions,reach finally:
1, marry rate drop, drop gradually with the human fertility after 1988 have immediate concern;
2, suffer educational degree to rise, read age growth postpones finish marriage time;
3, in recent years house price rises, what made influence marriage rate on certain level is new add an element.
Why to marry does rate year after year go low?
Lead and marry the age is the important and variable index that measures an area or national marriage to develop a case.
2017, branch of various civil administration and marriage register an orgnaization to do the outback dweller that manage marriage registers to be ten million six hundred and thirty-one thousand pairs lawfully in all, than going up year drop 7 ％ , marry among them rate for 7.7 ‰ , than going up year reduce 0.6 thousand a little bit. In the age paragraph go up, 2017 25-29 year old deal with marry register occupy marry total population proportion is the largest, occupy 36.9% .
Marry rate, computation of integrated past gather into one is occupied, reporter analysis, marry the inflection point of rate appeared 2014, this year, countrywide marriage is led for 9 ‰ , what ended to begin from 2002 thereby is successive 12 years add situation, in those days marry rate relatively dropped 2013 0.3 thousand bits. And 2017, this comes according to dropping further 7.7 ‰ , in the meantime, marry the number that register and 25-29 year old the age paragraph marry rate Yi Shuangshuang drops.
What be does influence finish marriage register the element to count and marry the fall of rate? The reporter occupies discovery through inquiring calendar year statistic is counted, suffer a country to bear policy impact, nearly 30 years comer mouth birthrate drops continuously, or it is one of crucial factors that bring about two afore-mentioned data to drop.
If register the age in order to marry paragraph proportion is the largest " 25-29 year old the age paragraph " population is exemple, can push those who calculate this group to be born time is in 1989 - between 1993. And release according to national statistic bureau " Chinese statistic almanac " in, to the statistic of human fertility the result can discover, 1989 - between 1993, the population whole birthrate of our country presents a downtrend of year after year, it is 21.58 ‰ , 21.06 ‰ , 19.6 ‰ respectively 8, 18.24 ‰ and 18.09 ‰ , overall fall it is 3.49 thousand a little bit.
Accordingly, can think, 1989-1993 year the fall of population whole birthrate, bring about at present " 25-29 year old the age paragraph " of population base reduce, register to marrying thereby count and marry rate generation influence.
What need points out is, marry the fall of the number that register has general trend in the whole nation, it is domestic economy developeds with economy second develop the general character of the area. The data that releases like hall of Guizhou Province civil administration shows, 2012 - 2017, this province marries the logarithm that register is reduced in the year after year after 2015, drop by four hundred and ninety-two thousand six hundred pairs of 2015 to 2017 four hundred and three thousand six hundred pairs.
Predict, because our country human fertility has been reduced from the 23.33 ‰ 1987,come the 12.95 ‰ 2016, in coming several years accordingly, afore-mentioned two statistic index, or appear go out to drop further likelihood.
"30 years old + " marry number growth is apparent
And the marriage of our country the inflection point of the age appeared 2013.
Reporter discovery, 2010 20-24 year old the age paragraph deal with marry the citizen that register is occupied marry total population proportion is most, occupy 37.6% , 25-29 year old the age paragraph occupy 31.9% , 30-34 year old the age paragraph occupy 11.3% , 35-39 year old the age paragraph occupy 6.6% , 40 years old of above are occupied 12.9% .
And 2011, although 20-24 year old the age paragraph deal with marry the citizen that register is occupied marry total population proportion still highest, but occupy change than beginning to appear, namely from on one year 37.6 drop to 36.6% .
2012, 20-24 year old the age paragraph deal with marry the citizen that register is occupied marry total population proportion drops further to occupy 35.5% , and 25-29 year old deal with marry the citizen that register has shown clear year after year to rise trend, occupy 34.2% , than going up year increase 0.8 percent.
2013, according to the data that national statistic bureau releases, can discover 25-29 year old the age paragraph marry the proportion of population exceeds 20-24 first year old, further growth reachs after this 39.4% 2015, show " age of marry at a mature age " paragraph population begins to rise.
But notable is, 2016-2017 year, 25-29 year old the age paragraph marry population proportion drops two years continuously, but the government did not point out other age at the same time paragraph marry population is occupied than metabolic circumstance.
Analyst of academy of 21 centuries economy thinks, 2016-2017 in year, 25-29 year old the age paragraph marry the fall of population proportion, the first it is to suit population structure to produce change, namely as population amount is born to drop ceaselessly after 1989, it is to bring about marry nowadays the number declines ceaselessly.
In addition, another kind of viewpoint thinks, age of 30 years old of above paragraph marry specific gravity grows, it is to bring about 25-29 year old the age paragraph marry what population proportion goes out to drop now is new add an element. Among them, having the case that statistic shows is, number of rate of marriage of Duan Chu of age of 30 years old of above rises partial area the trend is clear.
Married what announce like bureau of Shanghai civil administration 2012 divorce case signs up for only say, shanghai man is average first marriage age head amount to 30 years old; And the statistic that comes from Nanjing citizen political situation shows, nanjing person first marriage registered total average age to achieve 30.4 years old 2015, more further than 2014 delay is 0.3 years old. 2016, further growth reachs the first marriage age of Nanjing city 31.6 years old. And 2017, average age achieved first marriage 32.6 years old.
And the data that bureau of Nanning city statistic releases shows, dweller of inland of whole 2017 town marries register 53051 pairs, average age is 29.9 party years old, from whole town case of nearly 5 years looks, marry year after year of the amount that register drops, average age year after year increases party first marriage.
A variety of elements push tall marriage the age
Analyst of academy of 21 centuries economy thinks, marry the fall of rate, and marry the age paragraph growth, except can be base of population of comfortable marriage age to change from demography angle explanation outside bringing about, if combine urban economy, society to develop a characteristic, still can discover more add an element newly.
The first it is the growth that population gets educational rate, postpone finish marriage time. The reporter passes what release to each place " statistical almanac " the discovery after data is arranged, three-year institution of higher learning and proportion of population of above record of formal schooling present year after year to increase a current. In the 7 provinces that bring into this report statistic (municipality directly under the Central Government) in, three-year institution of higher learning and population of above record of formal schooling were occupied 2016 than, relatively presented year after year 5 years to increase a current in the past.
Among them, two ground of the Beijing with highest amplitude and Shanghai, its three-year institution of higher learning and population of above record of formal schooling were occupied 2016 than, mix for 45.35 ‰ respectively 30.1 ‰ , relatively grew 11.42 respectively 2011 ‰ and 8.98 ‰ , and even if the Sichuan province with the smallest amplitude, afore-mentioned growth that statistical time Duan Yi has 0.8 thousand a little bit.
Tell further, record of formal schooling makes clear higher grow more in school time, this will defer the obtain employment age of this part crowd not only, also will defer its to marry the age, common and character, get education rate is higher, marry the age is older.
The 2nd life idea that is a dweller produces change. As the growth that gets educational rate, and the development that average per capita of our country dweller can control income, whole society to consume industry condition and upgrade, crowd of age of partial comfortable marriage begins more pursuit realizes self-worth, the age that is like the person that do poineering work in recent years paragraph year after year is reduced, accountable this one problem.
The 3rd is in recent years the ministry distributes land the tall house price of the area, bring about marry cost rises, the fall that leads to marrying thereby and marry the age paragraph growth has indirect effect.
The reporter is right city of a gleam of is secondhand in December 2017 room room price and when days after wage rate undertakes study, all discover, the house price of city of domestic share heat and difference of wage rate coefficient appear enlarge a trend, it is with Beijing exemple, 8467 yuan on guard worker is average in December 2017 salary, its purchasing power of every square housing is only 0.125, compare a few years with the past, difference expands, common and character, namely house price rises panel height goes up at salary sex income, make marry " element " one of the cost that buy a house rises considerably.
The reporter thinks, look with respect to whole world limits, numerous economy developeds the city all exists " small appetite society " phenomenon, among them a main idea, it is low marry the existence of rate and low fertility-rate, this one phenomenon can be accelerated not only aged incoming time of the society, also reduce social prosperity to spend likely at the same time, this is due place is vigilant.
(21 centuries economy reports)
