This year, paper mill front draws near 3 years to come most predicament hour! Outside having on, abandon suffer be restricted, the cost house such as useless, pulp does not leave the country high, downstream busy season not flourishing, demand is atrophic, from must stop machine overhaul in busy season to small paper mill greatly, paper price rises resistance is heavy. The year that another paper mill had is as long as many days 70 recently is overhauled, the length of time is unprecedented.
One, Henan one paper mill unexpectedly stop production two half moon, wrapping paper of second half of the year engine stop production becomes very common
On August 29, county of division of Henan province company too the announcement outside tasting limited company to be opposite with paper: Because my company undertakes year rebuilds,maintain, stop production 2 half moon, already rebuilt now end, movement already returned to normal since August 26, 2018 oneself, welcome presence of new old client to cooperate! Generally speaking, overhaul of paper mill year stops grow to be more after a week is wrong when machine, the longest also won't exceed a month. This is small make up had seen this year so far the paper mill with the longest machine down time.
6-8 month begins many large wrapping paper this year factory act out of normal behaviour, announce the message that machine overhaul stops in year causes great attention in the market. Draw near in September, stop army of machine paper mill still expanding, besides large paper mill, small paper mill also is joined in stop machine. A kind of viewpoint thinks, paper mill stops centrally machine be the eye of support value of reduction of output after stemming from demand to glide. The 2nd kind of viewpoint thinks, main reason is large paper mill tall to quality beautiful useless dependence is big, the United States is useless suffer be restricted to make raw material is in short supply.
Dispatch of paper industry couplet thinks, negotiating in view of Sino-US commerce is abiding iteration seesaw battle, predict volume of beautiful this year useless import will get very big impact, country of second half of the year abandons market competition to will turn white-hot with each passing day. If large paper mill cannot solve problem of beautiful useless shortage effectively, besides stop besides machine, adjust the product structure, likelihood that raising paper of second birth board and corrugated paper yield also will be big plant option. Below latter option, the requirement that big plant abolishs to the country will increase significantly, in small paper mill criterion will must face a country to abandon valence till intermittence parks the difficult position of machine,Gao Xi is short of. Anyhow, product line of wrapping paper of second half of the year stopped the circumstance of machine to appear possibly again and again 2018. This is mixed to processing factory of downstream paper box may not be a good news for terminal brand business.
2, downstream order is atrophic, paper price rises resistance is heavy, paper mill front faces 3 years to come most predicament hour
Began to be worth wrapping paper industry to enter traditional consumptive peak period in August, but the busy season this year appears and do not have " flourishing " rise, paper mill faces the situation of downstream order atrophy, paper mill goes goods rhythm relatively put delay apparently last year, busy season feature is not apparent, became the consensus of wrapping paper industry it seems that, paper price rises resistance is heavy, add waste paper cost to rise ceaselessly, the situation that paper mill faces appears not hopeful.
Go 3 years, this industry catenary is packed to go up in paper, the one loop with speech the largest advantageous position is papermaking enterprise, also be what counterpoise because of speech is strong, paper mill also is denounced all the time. No matter still be the downstream factory that pack to waste paper business of upper reaches, papermaking enterprise has enough speech power to be able to affect style of fluctuation travel expense. But, begin from this year, such consequence wear off. Paper mill has done not have method repass marry again downstream or monopoly advanced position goes affecting the market, can be to depreciate only sale and stop production are restricted to produce, by turn into actively passive.
Last year, ton of paper wool profit of mill of a lot of paper is OK on 1000 yuan, had been not worth 500 yuan for the most part this year, if paper mill returns high price,receive the sentence of waste paper at that time, face loss likely. Because this protects the market to be inferior to putting down figure with its, reduce cost through stop production, maintain the profit of ton of paper.
The predicament that at present paper mill faces basically has the following sides:
Above all, cost pressure. Waste paper price suffers prohibit " foreign rubbish " enter a country policy and Sino-US trade war add the effect that imposes custom duty to partial commodity, the price maintains exalted concussion. The useless price cost outside the entrance and time cost are higher and higher. On August 20, trash of solid of environmental protection ministry and center of chemical management technology are public shown newest data shows: Ration of the 18th batch of total nucleus of entrance waste paper that add newly are two hundred and eighty-nine thousand six hundred and fifty-seven tons this year, up to now, the total nucleus ration this year already achieved forteen million three hundred and twenty-eight thousand eight hundred tons. Suffer policy effect, begin from July, ration of nucleus of entrance waste paper is already successive 3 batch glide, glide range is bigger, this second add nuclear ration newly relatively the 15th batch dropped 83.67% . Beautiful trade war lasts in together with, china has decided to rose 12:1 midday from August 23, impose the custom duty of 25% to coming from entrance waste paper of the United States to add, useless advantage narrows gradually outside, in the meantime, the country abandons the price to suffer effect of change of face of supply and demand, the price does not have the requirement that drops considerably, situation of paper mill high cost is short-term difficult change. Though perch of waste paper price gave paper of downstream finished product to offer stronger cost to prop up, but high cost if cannot smooth conduction comes downstream demand, cost is propped up will evolve for cost pressure, the gain space of extruding paper mill. Will look at present, this one " barrier lake " effect already more and more apparent.
Next, the environmental protection pressure that paper mill faces is greater and greater. From the examination of routine environmental protection of various places, to 2018-2019 year blue sky guards battle, release to zoology environment ministry again " law of prevention and cure of environment of pollution of trash of solid of People's Republic of China (edit draft) (ask for an opinion to stalk of grain) " , environmental protection is more and more outstanding to the influence of papermaking industry. This second " solid abandons a standard " edit draft increased blowdown to permit duty of system, environmental protection, loop duty the many respects content such as danger, reiterate " foreign rubbish " prohibit making. In addition, edit draft adds area collaboration article newly still, build regional dangerous trash to deal with centrally as a whole establishment. New law hopeful is by 2018 to at the beginning of 2019 come on stage formally. Of a variety of environmental protection policy come on stage, mean presswork illegal cost of the company that pack increases further, pack with paper downstream industry is faced with more and more severe environmental protection to assess, quantity body and demand will have abate anticipate, for the demand that influence of this big to getting economy environment loses with respect to hasten originally, more " one disaster after another " .
Finally, the influence of domestic economy big environment. Pack live with paper and economy be closely bound up, each domains of the people's livelihood cannot leave wrapping paper, can calls a countryman economy " barometer " . In the center of the China July 31 on conference of the Political Bureau, be opposite in the center of economic situation by " firm in to good " state for " firm in have change " , the change of one word shows the complex situation that current China economy faces. Policy respect, clear finance policy is enlarging the conference inside need and bigger effect is produced on structural adjustment, monetary policy is to be in " master valve of good money supply, maintain liquidity reasonable and abundant " on the foundation, by " dovish neutral " turn into " dovish " . To this, the mainstream viewpoint of the market thinks current policy remains structural sex to adjust, do not talk to go up policy changes direction, won't see large-scale stimulation is mixed turn on the water. And export side, suffer Sino-US trade war to add ask for custom duty influence, exit is oriented model wrapping paper demand has larger to the limit of one's capacity hard.
The likelihood is in light of wrapping paper factory, experienced the wedding day of two years of scene, day receives a bottle of gold, face predicament to must not keep producing nowadays, make the market a bit can depressed, be anxious somewhat to the prices of second half of the year. But the enterprise should see more " abandon " and " " relation. See market of paper of white paperboard, culture, spend as a result of concentration tall, enterprise collective controls crop, the matter that assures profit has lasted 3 years two, although whole switchs on the mobile phone,do not lead 70% , the basin full earthen bowl that earns like a few big companies is full. Do not go contending for so called market to have rate, crop rank, important is to whether money earns, whether gain is the biggest change. In the final analysis, the changeover problem of the crisis and good luck, the way that domestic paper look forward to should take is very long still!
