The shares bicycle bibcock OFO condition that we say before saying prices is analysed now, personage of know the inside story discloses, the closest period of time, ofo defaulted the much home content such as state of Yun Diao, heart to shed a supplier to count a RMB to owe, current, ofo respect is in furtive secret and solution of negotiation of supplier of many content shedding.
A cloud bird thing that approachs this negotiation sheds in-house personage to express, "The negotiation with Ofo is very demanding it may do not have money really, the negotiation can be advanced slowly only " , this personage says, ofo and cloud bird thing flow is cooperative relation, it is the big client that cloud bird thing sheds, ofo respect however tardy payment in arrears, already amounted to 110 million yuan or so at present.
Show according to print exemple, the resource data that Ofo gives out is " 15 million bicycle, enclothe 250 million user " , and the advertisement price of custom-built automobile body is the brand every 2000 yuan / month, price of advertisement of spread its tail is 100~120 yuan, 1000CPM removes carry out.
At the beginning of this year Feburary, ofo carries the kind of movable guaranty, exchanged Alibaba 1.77 billion yuan loan; March the middle ten days of a month, ofo says with equity + the means of creditor's rights, obtain get in A cast, ant gold is taken etc with the E2-1 that cast annulus 866 million dollar (about 5.5 billion yuan of RMBs) financing, the loan before was being included among them.
Occupy relevant media coverage additionally, what Dai Wei rejected drop drop respect is potential buy want to make an appointment with, and appeal company staff " fight after all " . Cheng Wei is right of Ofo anticipate buying price has beautiful group to buy only rub the half that does obeisance to 2.7 billion U.S. dollor. Look Cheng Wei sold with value of 2.7 billion dollar in April this year rub doing obeisance to is well-advised operation, had turned round to receive again later bigger come back, and the price that uses an in part possibly only buys bibcock of a market, this business is really lucrative.
Harden home counts Zhou Wu relatively go up to trade day increases somewhat, 20 harden of two city; Drop stop 23. Clinch a deal quantity respect, shanghai city clinchs a deal 114.8 billion yuan, deep city clinchs a deal 133.7 billion yuan, two city assembly hands in the forehead to be 248.5 billion yuan about, relatively go up to trade day shrinks measure 5 billion yuan. Dish on the face, board piece subject matter majority closes green, protection of bank, public traffic, intellectual property board piece go up a house before, second new, can light ice, travel to wait board piece drop a house before.
Pay close attention to a message mainly next week:
1, hand in place: To long-term not dedicated advocate the course of study, company that loses business ability, should hold to lawfully, comprehensive, from severe superintend, improve order of market modes of life and relation to their environment continuously, health of stimulative capital market is benign develop.
2, again manufacturer of 12 culture paper, life paper raises price, base paper is highest rise 500 yuan / ton
3, black lead electrode is downstream order grow in quantity, the price is answered go up 0.5-1 10 thousand yuan / ton
4, Sha Gang rose in price first days in September, busy season will be gone against to bibcock situation hold out valence
5, meeting nucleus sends card inspect 3 enterprises IPO is approved civil raise fund total amount does not exceed 1.4 billion yuan
If this week grail whole anticipates to concussion relapses to adjust after strong Gao Zhi, whole anticipates such concussion is adjusted last a few days even, the dot anticipates 28 formation Xiaogao will last concussion adjusts 5 or 6 ability can form low, key attention Shanghai is deep 300 indexes 3285 with of 3209 prop up, the key pays close attention to the pressure breakthrough of 3425 later, one but after breaking through 3425 pressure, whole proves the trend comes out to decide with be being made clear, will look to arrive more further 3600, this second low is not day of line, however week line low, september 3 if low establishs whole to see much high November 30 point, that is to say if hold water this year have a meal prices is started formally, have 3 months that is to say last week period. And date or 6 5 low anticipate on day wire, look further after meeting canzonet is whole after looking to go to 10 more later much, it is OK that Dan Benzhou begins 5 numbers choose machine is copied low, had chosen high grade a hold getting on a car, unless Shanghai is deep 300 indexes next week farther new low, ability can change this point of view. If you are done not have high grade, also can buy 510300 count with 159915 this two thumb, copy a bottom to increase the chance of the choice for yours.
Zhou Wu heat board piece bibcock: Natural gas: 000669, 5G: 603602.
Key attention rises in price on the weekend commodity:
Zhou Wu rises heat slack, but the heat that the delegate did not come even if can not last appears, when prices regression, grail trend begins to go against a turn, integral heat board piece the development that links to push litre of prices together again with respect to meeting in pairs with capital and of profitable effect reflect, of profitable effect pick up to be able to drive what the person enrages to restore, this is a process also be one is accumulated, quantitative change achieves the progress of qualitative change.
Still can join attention mainly next week board piece is the whorl steel in commodity and PTA relevant board piece.
Whorl steel reason: Bade went against Sha Gang on September 1 situation rise. Among them, 80 yuan are moved on whorl of the first ten days of a month in September / ton, show 3 stage old spiral shell 4680 yuan / ton, namely trafficker hangs 190 yuan / ton. Busy season will come, inside the factory stock is small below the circumstance, steelworks holds out valence apiration apparent. Sanded steel whorl orders goods 1-8 month all is scale to be folded completely, occur for the first time was reduced in September to 9.5 fold. 480 blast furnace stop afterwards for a long time postpartum, again a 180 converter overhaul 20 days this month, at the same time 10? All environmental protection will be restricted to produce a talk in November. And very large possibility is restricted to produce, if come true,rise in what the price may accelerate when busy season.
PTA: ? ?6 year since PTA supplies end to enter new structure, 17 years industry of polyester of second half of the year also enters new cycle. Downstream boom spends ceaseless promotion, upper reaches is produced can add fast put delay, stock of PTA industry chain is changed ceaselessly, drive the price to be climbed all the way litre, do not go up to two months more than 40% . Whether will fervent prices still continue?
1, produce can contradicting is essential, plant part produces change
From Ning Bo a PTA produces the angle of business to look, PTA experiences a few years this of development, lag behind through falling into disuse stage by stage produce will achieve oneself to produce the goal that can give clear. From last year second half of the year begins, the long-term yield in the contradictory translate into of the industry can be contradictory, and not just crop or the short-term such as start working rate is contradictory. The works shows, PTA has a deficit a few years greatly afore, do not have old PTA project mount a horse two this years, produce can increase very finite; And PTA downstream demand enters boom cycle from last year, polyester adds those who be close to 5 million tons or so newly to produce this year can, future still produces calculated 1.5 million tons can want to release, this will cause PTA-PET to produce can lopsided, bring about medium-term supply and demand to tighten a balance thereby.
Another large PTA produces business to express, him factory two overhauls this year among them small long overlay heavies repair is to pass the profit circumstance at that time to adjust. Link intervenes among PTA little, the industry is very transparent, pay cycle is short, it is a relatively healthy industry. The factory is in adversity, to live the part also produced a few change, the enterprise does acting processing factory through changing a heading, the deficit plight that also can make oneself progressively before breaking away from two years.
2, see downstream and patient rate from profit link
A historical data that PTA factory passes major reachs Zhejiang form, the downstream focus problem that analysed market place attention carefully for us from profit link. From the point of PX link, the profit of PX and naphtha is when 300 dollars left and right sides, the factory can keep a copy, if do not calculate depreciation, 250 dollars can live. Profit of segment of early days PX all the time not much, and present finished cost has PX 600, raised one times relatively. And this profit still also will undertake future reapportion. The period is spent in big temper with fire, PX is produced can put in concentration, PX project of Heng Li will been built October this year, project of the PX in petrifaction of short for Zhejiang Province predicts to will been built December, the profit of long-term PX in future will progressively demise.
From the point of PTA link, the factory thinks, money is tighter January this year, sale status is better; Entered polyester demand Feburary off-season, rate of polyester start working is not high, but PTA stop production is not much, PTA becomes tired stock; 4-6 month enters tired inventory phase, the price is controlled in 5700 yuan, company deficient cash; Current polyester produce and sale is very good August, have 1600 yuan / ton net profit, the Qian Ke that earned in August fills with what have a deficit early days come back, 3 years because of this enterprise time receives profit add considerably thick period, also not allow relatively easy.
From the point of crucial polyester profit link, current besides POY gain, other product plays the stage that go up considerably in raw material somewhat deficit, be to had begun to collide downstream so? A works shows, although current gain standard is wrong, but began polyester industry profit 2017 first-rate, 17 years tall when POY profit 700-800 yuan / ton, now is PTA downstream product profit had one partial allocation to give PTA. And what the patient degree of polyester is inferior to expect is so weak, they control oneself stock, partial product cherish makes work. Although be in deficit condition, but considering after wanting to assure quits and can fluctuant cost, shutdown cost of new go into operation element of this two respects, the factory still gets start.
3, upper reaches arrives to be conducted downstream still be in smooth
From industrial catenary before in light of condition, industry character makes manufacturing business can relatively smooth upriver cost carry litre conduct in coming downstream, and be opposite downstream bargain ability of upper reaches is weaker, majority can be passed only first passivity is accepted, again progressively the mode to terminal marry again, fall jointly negative will resist time cycle of upper reaches grows quite. This PX devalues in the RMB the price that overlay oneself is brought quickly goes up to be conducted very quickly to PTA, the reserve that increases PTA and polyester is in the history is low, the upsurge that rises in price accordingly comes quickly also. Make a present of of positive and negative is remained currently relatively smooth, polyester link still is undertaking following going up to the product, when because this has not arrived,losing feedback truly downstream. And photograph comparing is feedbacking, the time cycle of negative feedback should grow a lot of.
4, is usury embellish ecbolic does device restart whether can you change a balance to express?
Below environment of PTA usury embellish, early days jockeys for a long time device answer is postpartum whether can change supply and demand to express position evenly, quicken inventory to accumulate? A large trafficker tells us, vacate what dragon and blessing sea achieve to restart on one hand had mirrorred advanced period in anticipating, the market can look get this problem; On the other hand, be similar to Yang Zishi to change He Jialong these device, of can new go into operation so buy of a few suit, it is already affirmatory 9, will want October, but the device that later period needs to overhaul is not little also, because this won't accumulate a process to inventory,have considerably change.
From the point of polyester start working, current polyester start working still is in the level of 90% above, and produce can return will have increase, this part that can offset PTA answer is produced is produced can.
5, look from trafficker angle cross period price difference
Trafficker expresses, cross period price difference to achieve 5 years most, more is PTA period shows what from Contango structure change is Back structure to reflect. 09 in in former years an agreement that is storehouse odd weigh all the time, in the storehouse on this agreement sheet will be cancelled centrally, cannot again right-about-face, assume on 09 agreement sell maintain a volume very big; Now year period show a structure to transform, 09 agreement still are the situation of agio merchandise on hand, because this also makes,draw near below complete a business transaction 09 go tall ceaselessly, now the pattern of PTA, far month and close month are poor 1400, in next year before January, inventory still won't increase too much, whole holds close balance position, because this is close strong far weak structure will still last, short-term value is poor hard convergent.
6, be benefited A
Constant ease petrifaction (000703) , share of tung elder brother (601233) , Rong Chengshi is changed (002493)
Pay close attention to mainly next week board piece notional: ? Medical treatment of?G of cut up with a hay cutter of O of small ⒈ , biology, pork, chemical industry, steely, negotiable securities.
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