Enter a new city when room look forward to, open up a new market, undertake an analysis to the estate market of a city urgently, from have an insight into on the whole the change of urban estate market, hold the pulse of urban estate market, to urban estate future development undertakes forecasting, judge thereby whether can enter this town.
So the city that has what requirement can be entered, perhaps say what the standard that enters a town is?
We think, can mix from the economic norms of basis city market index, differentiate with urban grade for the foundation, link the development demand of the company strategy of room look forward to, hand-in-hand travel is reasonable match, establish a standard that enters a town thereby.
Below put up with 5 big module try to elaborate respectively (the relation between 5 module pursues as follows be shown) . Just talk,
Relation of logic of 5 big module pursues
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Module one: Estate economic norms
Macroscopical economic norms is influence estate develops to be shown most, most direct element, the development each other of the development of real estate and national economy is a condition, each other is premise, the development of national economy enlarged the demand of estate, and of estate backward the development that drove action to promote estate correlation trade again, raised the development level of national economy further. We choose a series of related to estate core economic norms in macroscopical economy to serve as crucial reference point (CP) undertake judging.
1, gross domestic product
GDP gross is the main index that measures a country or urban economy actual strength, according to law of Ci of Nie of library at present: When GDP growth rate is 8 ％ , when 10 ％ , real estate develops high speed; When 5 ％ , when 8 ％ , real estate will be in stability to develop level; When 4 ％ , when 5 ％ , real estate will appear backwater; When be less than 4 ％ , real estate will appear atrophic.
The GDP growth first half of the year was in our country 2018 6.8% , that is to say estate is in stability to develop level, still will run period of time in current perch, everybody need not fear industry whole appears what problem.
2, gross domestic product of average per capita (GDP of average per capita)
This one index is used normally measure actual strength of this city economy and economy the omnibus index with brisk relatively commonly used rate, according to the statistic of world bank, the development of estate and the growth that GDP of average per capita is worth are closely related (following plan institute are shown) .
GDP of average per capita and estate develop concern plan
GDP of average per capita exceeded our country 2018 9000 dollars, same confirm our country estate enters stable development phase.
3, structure of 3 industries scale
Real estate is attributive the tertiary industy that provides a variety of services for production and consumption, if the tertiary industy proportion in structure of industry of a city is in 50% above, tertiary industy makes the biggest industry, if industrial structure is entered historic " 321 " level, it is more mature to mean this city industry to develop, the progress that shows this city estate enters relative to higher level, this is " tertiary industy 50 law " .
4, population state
Population amount is the primary motivation that decides estate market demand and main factor, population is more, the market of estate is bigger. Urban population should be flowed into be more than pour out of, show urban appeal is strong, estate requirement increases, house price can rise commonly, conversely estate demand will drop subsequently.
The city is changed is to show agricultural population transforms ceaselessly the process that is blame agriculture population, need many housing and establishment of communal form a complete set. The city changes leading is an edge " S " the curve is fluctuant: Be in 10% , 30% it is the getaway that the city changes level, 30% , 70% it is the acceleration that the city changes level, be more than 70% be it is the later period level that the city changes.
5, average per capita can control income
Average per capita can control income to measure dweller of town of a city to consume the main index of ability and discretion of standard of living with Yu Heng, but average per capita can control income is the requirement that buys a house, is not sufficient condition, be not can dominate the town with high income, consumer buys room investment more with respect to regular meeting. Additional, while use average per capita can control income, want to combine coefficient of favour case Er to think integratedly together, can avoid by " average " misdirect.
6, coefficient of favour case Er
Coefficient of Er of case of commonly used favour measures a country and the situation of urban people living standard on international, coefficient of favour case Er is poverty in 59% above, 50-59% is dress warmly and ear one's fill, 40-50% is well-off, 30-40% is rich, under 30% for the richest.
7, town dweller deposit deposits money
Dweller of the dot when deposit of town dweller deposit points to some stocks the deposit amount of the bank, deposit deposit growth is rapidder, explain consumer consumes consciousness to be guarded relatively, because of the discretion that this dweller deposit deposits money, the consumptive ability that reacted the dweller did not come and consumptive consciousness.
8, social consumable total volume of retail sales
Social consumable total volume of retail sales reflected the desire that the dweller consumes from another flank, social consumable total volume of retail sales shows growth trend, demonstrative dweller consumes demand gradually exuberant, dweller purchasing power is stronger.
Through total volume of retail sales of deposit of town dweller deposit and social consumable two index can judge the investment of a townsman and the preference that consume consciousness and tendency, the brisk rate that distinct preference and tendency trade to estate is different.
9, income house price is compared
Income house price is compared is a townsman buys a room to bear the report of ability, but in last few years income house price compares index by " on north wide deep " wait for city of a gleam of to be broken through time and again " cordon " , because mouth of the bearer outside city of a gleam of increases quickly,this basically is, and be put generally in 3 families " 6 purse " the element place such as Fu Shoufu phenomenon brings about, these elements had exceeded income house price to compare " 3 average principles " hypothesis condition, already cannot applicable principle, because assume in the condition " a family " become " 3 families " , family year income coverts " twice " the land increased, can explain price of house of income of city of a gleam of compares the reason that is broken through time and again so.
Because this wants to have domestic income reasonable convert to city of a gleam of or city of accurate a gleam of, ability of made contented hypothesis condition is applicable, and to great majority 2, 3 cities, the effect that causes as a result of place of ab extra population was not exceeded " 3 average principles " hypothesis condition, the income house price of these cities compares 1: 6, the reasonable range of 8 is OK applicable (if pursue,be shown) .
From this, carry estate the analysis of macroscopical economy setting, space of the level that the estate that is in a city to the project develops, development and development level have an overall knowledge, make accurate assessment to current estate market, make to development of market of prospective city estate forecast correctly.
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Module 2: Estate market index
Estate market index is an industry of real-estate of beyond the mark analyse development, supply, collect the respect data such as quantity and sale, will analyse supply demand relations of urban real-estate trade and the current situation that urban estate develops and trend, judge the scene bearing of current estate market. We choose a series of main estate market index to serve as crucial reference point (CP) undertake judging.
1, the proportion that estate investment holds fixed assets investment and GDP
Two index arrive the proportion that normally use estate invests the proportion that holds fixed assets investment and estate investment to occupy GDP on international the cold hot extent that judges prospective estate market. The general reference of these two index is worth:
? Estate investment occupies fixed assets to invest specific gravity: Be in 20% , the reasonable range of 40% ; Otherwise the city invests overheat, bubble appears.
? Estate investment occupies with GDP proportion: Should be in commonly 3% , in the reasonable float limits of 8% , otherwise bubble appears.
2, estate constructs scale
Estate builds dimensions to include 3 target such as area of complete of area of building construction area, building new go into operation, building. According to the project (the dimensions that establishs a range with 300 thousand M2 is exemple) development cycle is the 3 experience that arrive 4 years, popularly, "Area of new go into operation / construction area = 1/4, 1/3 " more reasonable, but because in last few years look forward to of a lot of rooms emphasizes " Gao Zhou turns " , accelerated capital have enough to meet need and development cycle generally, because this can be adjusted,be " area of new go into operation / construction area = 1/3, 1/2 " , otherwise the market appears the likelihood excess supply.
3, real-estate supply and demand and price are fluctuant circumstance
Since choosing nearly 5 years commonly open to booking area, sale area and sale amount to undertake contrasting analytic, calculate year estate value and price year increase by degrees rate case.
Those who need a specification is, if library existence drops, the price is rising, making clear is whack; If present inventory level is the nadir that comes 5 years, the specification is benign condition, but whether does the later period in observing even still have supply an area to come out; If now is goods only,the value is increasing, is not inventory is increasing, making clear is whack.
4, comparing of supply and demand
Comparing of supply and demand is current lunar end accumulative total is supplied area and current of area of sale of lunar end accumulative total than. Popularly, comparing of supply and demand is in 1: 0.8: ? ? : 1.2 between supply and demand relatively evenly; Supply and demand compares ≥ 1:0.8, the market appears to be begged for be more than; Supply and demand compares ≤ 1:1.2, the market appears demand exceeds supply.
5, go changing cycle
Going changing cycle is lunar end gains the residential reserve accumulative total that opens to booking a license quantity and successive 6 months build commodity house sale of mobile average than. Go changing cycle to be able to measure the supply demand relations of estate future market, popularly, the reasonable interval that goes changing cycle is 6, 18 months, 10 months are advisable, slant it is between Xiaoou be less than 6 months, slant big interval is be more than 18 months, 24 months are risk cordon, exceeded the market to have a risk.
6, secondhand the room trades area
As a result of well-known reason, secondhand the room trades the price and clinch a deal actually the price has certain difference, because this is secondhand of the room trade to consider to clinch a deal only commonly the influence of the area. Popularly, when secondhand the room clinchs a deal area and skill room clinch a deal of the area than be more than or be equal to 1:1When, it is more mature market, it is immature market conversely.
Be in at present this phase, because skill market waits for a reason for price fixing, the twist with appear certain, and secondhand the feasibility condition that market just can reflect the market more. And a lot of development business, still meet the basis is secondhand the demand investigation of room owner, project of bridal chamber of research and development.
Accordingly, carry analysis of afore-mentioned estate market and research, we can answer the following question:
Whether does estate of ● this city have overheat imagination?
The overall level that estate of ● this city develops how?
The supply demand relations that estate of ● this city develops how?
Will development of estate of ● this city appear what changes?
What chance does ● project face in this city development?
From this, have clearer knowledge to environment of market of estate of a city, and to prospective city estate development has more accurate judgement, coach thereby the benign development of real-estate project.
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Module 3: Urban grade differentiates
Manage estate macroscopical economic norms can undertake to each cities grade differentiates, we GDP of urban GDP gross, average per capita, often live population, average per capita can control the macroscopical economic norms such as structure of income and 3 industries scale to undertake thinking integratedly, can have each city grade differentiates (the place that be like a graph is shown) , countrywide each city can differentiate for 4 grade: City of city of a gleam of, accurate a gleam of, second line city and 34 lines city. To estate character, 3 lines and 4 lines (or 4 lines are the following) the sense with urban scalar district is not great, incorporate 34 lines city accordingly grade.
The stair that urban grade differentiates pursues
As a result of urban grade delimit GDP of dispenses GDP gross, average per capita, often live population, average per capita can control the element such as income and structure of tertiary industy scale relevant, when because this is become,estate venture happens, city of a gleam of fights risk ability the city of accurate a gleam of of apparent prep above, and of city of accurate a gleam of fight risk ability the city of second line of apparent prep above, with this analogize, urban order and degree is higher, the capability that fights a risk is stronger. Enter a new city when room look forward to so when, can install pilot of a risk according to the grade of this city " safe mat " .
"Safe mat " be used widely in the notional risk control in financial domain, in we draw lessons from our and using estate field, and the fights risk ability and safe mat coefficient intercrop urban grade corresponding corresponding relation (see next tables) .
Safe mat coefficient is when getting land natural resources, the fund that invests originally corresponding urban grade has magnify or narrowing, undertake the risk is controlled thereby. If safe mat coefficient is lesser, mean those who rose to get land " doorsill " , raise a purpose to fight risk ability thereby; If safe mat coefficient is taller, mean reduced those who get land " difficulty " , conduce to the flexibility that increases a project to run, but also mean the one share profit that wants sacrificial project at the same time; And the demand that expands when strategy of company of basis of room look forward to, need is strategical when the ground enters a new city, can break through afore-mentioned safety to fill up coefficient, but at the same time the likelihood should have been done " change a space with time " the preparation in the heart. Because this wants a foundation urban order and degree is reasonable and certain " safe mat " level, make the flexibility that can add a project to run already, can enhance the security of the project again, also entered a city to lay a foundation for room look forward to.
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Module 4: Company strategy is analysed
Different room look forward to has different company strategy, the standard that the city enters must link the development demand of the company strategy of oneself of room look forward to, with period achieve mutual " match " purpose, before establishing the standard that enters a town accordingly, we should have analysis and research to the company strategy of oneself above all.
There are a lot of analysis methods in economics, analytic company is outside more typical analysis method of the environment is " baud 5 force model " , and the analytic method that analyses enterprise interior element to analyse company strategy to compare effective especially is " company strategy is analytic the graph analyses a way " (if pursue,be shown) .
The company strategy of room look forward to and the standard that enter a town are both between be mutual influence, the company strategy that should combine room look forward to undertakes adjustment to entering urban standard, should undertake mutual " match " .
? Become company strategy is high speed dilate, enter 34 lines town with respect to need, so " economic standard " can reduce a demand appropriately, as long as " market index " up, to good can; But become company strategy is steady progress, ask " economic norms " and " market index " at the same time up, to good, for example " economic norms " in " urban GDP gross " the standard is OK from 300 billion rise 500 billion, "Market index " in " price increase rate " can from annual and average 10% rise 12% or above is waited a moment.
Everybody from in last few years development can see, always 3 years 10 times, 5 years of room look forward to of 20 times, meet a large number of entering to develop the 34 lines city of the area. And a few harbor that pursue steady progress endowment, look forward to of national endowment room, defend the city of line of just a little that is familiar with in oneself.
? When the project in company strategy construction management is compared strict, cannot enter 34 lines town, the construction standard that because be in place to look for the service worker that is less than qualification to come,satisfies high level, high quality asks, because this needs to rise appropriately " economic standard " , avoid to enter 34 lines town thereby.
? The comparison that when the product line in company strategy standardization does is good, the product is duplicate capability is stronger, can strive for implementation " high turnover " , can enter 34 lines town even 5 lines city, such is about that reduce considerably " economic standard " .
? Should ask to gross profit embellish in company strategy taller, that cannot be gone after painstakingly " high turnover " , and should at the same time aggrandizement " economic norms " and " market level " .
Specific for, go after the room look forward to of high turnover, project profit calculates 10% dare take, in building city ascendant phase, even 0 profit also dare be betted. Why? Same time paragraph, a few times profit had much have enough to meet need, and the loss that the benefit that dimensions brings can offset particular. And the room look forward to that seeks gross profit profit, single item profit calculates 30% ability to be able to be taken, because the standard is slashing, the ground that accords with a requirement so is original very few, take to be about to dig its value adequately, impossible also rapid turnover.
? Become what there is a demand to financial index IRR in company strategy, must be in " market level " in set " go changing cycle " standard, in order to ensure the successful implementation of project IRR index.
? Better when natural resources of the government in company strategy, can change infirmly so " economic standard " , and aggrandizement " market level " etc.
Become only company strategy and strategic standard mutual " match " when, establishing the enters a town standard that give just suit enterprise oneself development most. Because of every company should the company strategy of basis oneself, choose economic norms and market index, establish an enters a town standard that accords with company strategy development finally.
Had the strategy, consider relevant tactics even, for instance, strategical enter a town, won't too the first ground that cares to take is expensive, also won't too the cost that cares to go up in this project is devoted, because that is,capture the bridgehead of this city. Deep ploughing a city, had had 9 projects, lose money in business of the 10th project also dare be taken, because of the value of before that meeting drive up 9 projects.
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Module 5: Enter urban standard
The analysis of on put together 4 module, we can make a city macroscopical economy standard and level of urban estate market:
1, the city is macroscopical economic standard (above)
? Economy grows state standard: GDP of urban GDP gross, average per capita and GDP increase rate
? Population dimensions standard: Often live population, urban district population and hobo
? Consume pay level: Social consumable total volume of retail sales, average per capita consumes defray
? Standard of purchasing power standard: Average per capita can be controlled receive remaining sum of deposit of deposit of dweller of person, town and increase rate, Engeer coefficient
2, level of urban estate market (above)
? Estate invests dimensions standard: Fixed assets investment, estate invests
? Supply dimensions standard: Urban real-estate industry year development is measured (area of construction area, new go into operation) , complete is measured (complete area)
? Demand dimensions standard: Sell an area
? The price mixes standard of year of price increase rate: The residence is landed all valence reachs real estate of year of price increase rate, commerce all valence reachs year of price increase rate
3, urban investment risk controls a standard
Standard of integration analysis economy and market level, can get the risk controls a standard investing, have economic norms already among them, have market index again:
? Estate invests risk standard: Estate invests / GDP, estate invests / fixed assets invests
? Standard of purchasing power risk: Income house price is compared
? Standard of risk of supply demand relations: Comparing of supply and demand, go changing cycle
From this, we will calculate the capital that the land that reach invests through rational analysis again, those who press grade correspondence of the city is different " safe mat " undertake enlarge or narrow, rising to accelerate (or defer) the rhythm that enters a town while, achieved the goal that controls a venture again.
Those who need a specification is, can open the city sometimes degree, the soft actual strength of the city such as market maturity and governmental efficiency also brings into the standard that enters a town, actually of these cities " soft actual strength " final metropolis reaction is mixed in economy of the market " good target " go up, do not need to repeat a consideration, because this wants to hold economy and market only " two old standards " , can hold the level that enters a town well.
WD group enters basic standard of the city
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