5, finance and real estate
(one) safe: Appear on the market bright look signs up for in danger look forward to
Beijing of Chen Fu, Bao Miao, article is male
China restful, Chinese birthday, China too protect outstanding achievement of the newspaper in announcing, profit of net putting in a mother 's charge grows 33.8% compared to the same period respectively, 34.2% , 26.8% . Among them, country birthday, too protect basically be benefited 750 days all the line goes up interval makes reserve plan carry decrease, release the profit before duty. And basically be benefited in safety finance of odd limit amortize, science and technology is advanced, reach praedial board piece supportive profit grows, bibcock advantage is highlighted. Look from structure of guarantee slip business, value of well new first half of the year business is held growing, although danger new sheet still has small fall after a rise, but guarantee slip quality all promotes apparent, new business value is led 38.5% , promote 4.1 percent compared to the same period, among them value of procuratorial channel new business is led 48.1% , promote 6.5 percent compared to the same period. The member that group of representative of 2 quarters exert oneself adds the company, be expert at first half of the year course of study bear press setting to fall, realize procuratorial group to grow 5.5% . From plant nearly in light of the structure, effect of safeguard business transition is apparent, dimensions of accident and traditional life danger, long-term and healthy danger, short-term and healthy danger promotes considerably compared to the same period, grow 25.8% respectively, 40.0% , 31.1% , explain safeguard market is bigger still.
Current insurance board piece corresponding P/EV0.9 times, appraise is worth an advantage to show.
Risk clew: Interest rate suffers sudden element to affect wave motion to exceed anticipate.
(2) negotiable securities: Below environment of market of the competition that put an amount, profit of bibcock certificate business has tenacity
Cropland of Chen Fu, business
The market still manages the competition that put an amount, hand in be issued to lower levels of the jerk that send work. According to data of association of negotiable securities trade, negotiable securities trade is total first half of the year realize business income one hundred and twenty-six billion five hundred and seventy million yuan, net profit 32.86 billion yuan, change respectively compared to the same period - 11.9% , - 40.5% , up to 18H1 end, the client trades remaining sum of settle accounts capital (contain credit to trade capital) 1.11 trillion, annulus glides than 18Q1 end 5.9% , compared to the same period 17H1 end glides 12.6% , the market still is in the competition that put an amount.
Investment proposal: Long term increment capital but period, value bibcock bid. Short-term and character: On one hand, profit of bibcock certificate business has tenacity, on the other hand, after detailed rules of a two meetings comes on stage, partial bank already began to sign up for project of mark of the blame outside be being expressed fully, the table is indrawn capital construction, small small credit puts in strength also strengthening. Financial orgnaization asset carries pressure to alleviating, aid force board piece appraise is worth repair; In long-term and character: 1) fund of first target of provide for the aged is obtained batch, long term increment capital but period; 2) the industry quickens differentiation, client of orgnaization of race to control of bibcock certificate business, derive taste business to send an advantage first; 3) Tecent becomes a shareholder in Hua Tai becomes a shareholder in gold, A, of head certificate business get stuck instead, will anabiosis in prospective industry convex show an advantage.
Risk clew: Interest rate suffers sudden element to affect wave motion to exceed anticipate.
(3) bank: Silver-colored andante piece configuration value promotion
Qu Jun
Bank of 1. near future appeared apparent above quota accrual, and the relative gains of the bank in process of market be issued to lower levels seeing on the history is more apparent, attribute of the cycle after main reason depends on the weak shellfish tower of the bank and profit (indebted cost goes up precede at asset the price goes up, credit cost goes up lag at nominal economy be issued to lower levels) , what because this is underestimated,be worth and stabilize is medium newspaper outstanding achievement makes bank the stabilizer that makes an index temporarily and port.
2. is right bank, in policy strength bigger case falls, policy is banner at share price, share price is banner at economy. Like state-owend enterprise of overlay of environment of loose 2014 money reform anticipates, open to the outside world, 3 quarters cancelled to borrow the wide finance that retains greater than overlay strength 2015, although current policy has improvement but strength duration is not sufficient, because this current prices is appraise only,the value is reduced fast anticipate what improvement brings to rebound at economy and policy of overlay of outstanding achievement be issued to lower levels.
Invest proposal and risk clew
Investment proposal: Superintend in coordination aggrandizement, industry assets is outspread (especially in small bank) put delay. In view of undesirable 2018 rebound posture of continuance hasten delay, partial bank interest needs hopeful improvement, main area look forward to is firm pick up; Should value of appraise of header board piece is in interval of reasonable on the low side, underestimate value tall share out bonus ecbolic industry configures value, we maintain pair of silver of andante piece buy grade. Recommend a person of same business to be in debt (contain NCD) occupy underestimate value breed than tall, tall ROE.
Risk clew: 1, international economy and financial venture exceed anticipate; 2, finance superintends executive strength to exceed anticipate; 3, interest rate wave motion exceeds anticipate; 4, economic growth exceeds anticipate glide; 5, asset quality worsens considerably; 6, trade friction upgrades super- anticipate.
(4) estate: Board piece interest good factor already showed, continue to value underestimate look forward to of value bibcock room
Le Jiadong
Profit is at present good board piece the element depends on, the first, we wore the beginning of the year to hint limit of existence of fluidity of second half of the year is improved again this year anticipate and space, had gotten test and verify continuously at present, and be straightened as what the money conducts a mechanism to credit, credit dilate or will make the configuration strength that the bank increases pair of landed and relevant asset to carry, actually, 35 keys city was mortgaged first sets July borrow interest rate amplitude to close stage by stage narrow, and be believed high also begin limit with the cost of financing of room look forward to of grade next moving, improvement of cost of interest rate of industry of real estate of predicting in the future will be more clear. The 2nd, market of land of overlay of pressure of cash of local government liabilities drops in temperature, local government is depended on to trade investment spend or promote. The 3rd, the mainstream is landed 19 years dynamic PE is only 5 times the left and right sides, for the history new low, appraise value falls into value interval. Of course, board piece risk dot depends on, compare to landed manner in the center of determined, the circumstance of be issued to lower levels of overall condition tolerance leaves overlay market, board piece appraise value rehabilitate can be squelched certainly.
A respect, appear on the market room look forward to has issued 18 years of half annual report in succession, among them each index behaves bibcock room look forward to exceedingly good, basically reflect in: The first, the sale growth that goes a few years is conducted stage by stage carry to settle accounts, level of bibcock profit margin is driven to be improved continuously while settle accounts measures valence to rise together to grow in dimensions of safeguard settle accounts, and bibcock room look forward to already made work did not written guarantee natural resources is sufficient, the determinism that ensures to prospective outstanding achievement is taller. The 2nd, bibcock sells end to spend farther promotion centrally first half of the year, but the rate that return a money suffers credit policy to restrict somewhat fall after a rise. The 3rd, bibcock room look forward to continues to retain the higher strength that take the land first half of the year, distributing go up to sink to the 3 lines of core area stage by stage while perfect whole nation changes position. The 4th, cash of look forward to of room of great majority bibcock flows to be improved somewhat, financing expands and financing channel is smooth, add financing cost newly to have industry advantage as before.
On the whole, we are right board piece go situation hold upbeat mood as before, at present small periodic and bottom signal strengthens the industry, industry profit is good element general gripper shoe piece appraise value carries stage by stage litre, overlay spends the outstanding achievement flexibility that elevator belt comes to centrally, we continue to recommend the bibcock room look forward to that underestimates a cost.
Risk clew: Strength of policy adjusting control is increased further, industry sale fall after a rise is sharp at anticipating.
6, environmental protection of resource the sources of energy
(one) environmental protection: PPP byelaw inside year or come on stage, still pay close attention to financing environment to whether be improved
Guo Peng
Improvement of attention financing environment and active finance policy are advanced. Castigatory of similar PPP byelaw is accelerated advance, we anticipate include PPP guiding fund to put in, the many policy such as financing safeguard will still accelerate be born, special debt issues the place to be quickened ceaselessly, financing environment still is in ceaseless rehabilitate; Active finance policy emphasizes increasing infrastructure domain to fill short board strength; Countryside is revitalized, contaminative prevention and cure regards 3 large assault fortified positions as battle, the key content that local government examines, have nothing to do with real estate again, special likelihood is served as macroscopical to strong option. Specific policy anticipates a respect, attention is about to publish countryside to revitalize (useless processing of rural water, solid) , the old policy such as processing of rehabilitate of the Yangtse River, Bohai Sea, and " look round " continue, the policy such as limits of enlarge of blue sky plan will continue.
2018-2020 year the examination of key blowdown enterprise such as Campagna of short for Weihe River of belt of economy of open the Yangtse River, Fen. Recently, print and distribute of zoology environment ministry " supervisory inspection of the zoology environment quality that monitor acts 3 years plan (2018-2020 year) " , zoology environment ministry will be right quality of dimension of unit of the orgnaization that monitor, blowdown, carry undertakes checking, the key blowdown company that yearly check of the 2018-2020 on time program investigates is Campagna of short for Weihe River of belt of economy of the Yangtse River, Fen and Beijing ferry look forward to and periphery respectively.
Risk clew: Policy carries out strength to anticipate not as good as, PPP project is carried out, profit under anticipate; Industry competition aggravate.
(2) coal: Each coal is planted price whole is firm in have litre, industrial chain stock lasts fall after a rise
An Peng, Shen Tao
Coal market respect, price of haven of price of coal of near future motivation is progressively hasten is firm, dynamical coal will enter demand stage by stage after the last ten-day of a month in August off-season, and at present haven and power plant inventory already began fall after a rise, predict pressure of short-term coal price is not great. Cooking coal respect, near future haven and continuance of price of coal of area of producing area part rise, catenary of cooking coal industry upgrades stage by stage as a result of environmental protection supply is restricted, draw near hopeful of busy season demand improves stage by stage, add coke inventory to be in level of historical on the low side, since August coke spot price already accumulative total is carried go up 420 yuan / ton, and cooking coal price also hopeful gets propping up.
Board piece respect, although the market is right macroscopical demand anticipates not tall, it is better that downstream nevertheless data still is behaved, among them the society grew 6.8% compared to the same period with n in July, among them secondary industry is added with report fast for 4.6% , and the main and downstream output such as igneous report, cast iron, crude steel, cement grows 4.3% compared to the same period, 4.2% , 7.2% with 1.6% , predicting later period still hopeful maintains steady growth. And supply end, at present inspect of annulus security personnel still maintains more severe strength, national coal mine installs inspect bureau to will be aimed at Shanxi on September 20 at coming on August 20, 2018, inside unconscious wait for area of 12 provinces yield coal to begin superintend and director of colliery safe production to check, crop of predicting later period releases rate too won't fast. Since the beginning of the year haven and price of producing area coal all valence photograph still has apparent promotion than 17 years of the corresponding period, predict annual 18 years all valence still has small 17 years to rise relatively (dynamical coal is mixed first half of the year cooking coal all valence photograph compares 17 years of annual all price rises respectively 2% and 10% ) , entire industry profit is 156.4 billion yuan first half of the year, grow 18.4% compared to the same period, 2 quarters annulus compares growth 10% , near future exposure signs up for outstanding achievement to be accorded with basically also in most company anticipate. In long-term, according to us statistic is in at present build produce can prospective new increment makes an appointment with 3-4 100 million tons, with demand growth agrees basically, predicting 18-20 year industry hopeful maintains close balance, and at present indebted level still is in the industry exalted, debt load still heavier. Accordingly, in see coal price for a long time have hard drop apparently. Although consider coal price to drop,come make an appointment with median 570 yuan / ton, because most company is long assist proportion is higher, and producing area sale price is fluctuant and lesser, not big also to outstanding achievement influence. The pessimism of industry of coal of predicting later period anticipates hopeful improves, coal appraise is worth hopeful promotion. At the same time long-term environmental protection upgrades stage by stage in benefit from benefit from, backward produce can wash out a trend to decide stage by stage, hopeful of centre of coke market value promotes stage by stage.
Risk clew: Downstream demand under anticipate, each coal is planted the price exceeds anticipate drop.
(3) coloured: Metallic price still is in cycle of long periodic boom
Ju Guoxian
Lithium report data: Cobaltic price of the Yangtse River appears rebound
The steam in occupying assist, car of new energy resources produced sales volume to mix 84 thousand for 90 thousand respectively July, grow to be respectively compared to the same period 53.6% with 47.7% ; Crop annulus increases than June 4.7% , sales volume and kept balance June. Occupy Zhen Li to consider, car of domestic new energy resources realized dynamical cell installation amount to make an appointment with 3.34Gwh in July, grow 29% compared to the same period, annulus comparing grows 16.66% . Static wait for 3C and demand of car of new energy resources appeared September relatively promote substantially.
Industrial metal: Alumina price rises continuously
Domestic bauxite supplies hasten to tighten prices to did not change, hai Delu with 580.5 dollars / ton the price wins the bid Indian alumina, drove international alumina apparently price goes high. Difference of price of domestic and international alumina expands further, may drive domestic alumina exit to continue to grow. Alumina or will continue to maintain go inventory rhythm, the price will still hopeful goes up, cost carries rise or drive electroanalysis aluminium rises in price. Sino-US 16 billion dollar is added ask for custom duty to be carried out formally, cupreous price rebounds lack of power. Shanghai zinc inventory achieves 10 years new low, contradiction of supply and demand drives lead, zinc to get go up basic plate piece. Indonesian call in exit of close nickel mine, stannic nickel continues inventory.
Gold: Of short duration of short-term dollar circumfluence rests, golden price rises 1.7% , predict short-term will still concussion moves
Look for a long time from which, global economy still is in anabiosis in the passageway, beautiful couplet store add inside year ceasing 4 times is big probability incident, promotion of capital return rate forms suppress to golden price; Short-term in light of, beautiful couplet store since open adds breath cycle, had added cease 7 times, euro area country increases breath pace slower still, occupy about as a result of weight of the euro in dollar index 2/3, euro add dollar drops, dollar index can appear accordingly rise, golden price is short-term still bear pressure. Will look at present, beautiful debt yield has been broken through 3% , and beautiful September couplet store add probably again breath, adding breath earlier stage so, beautiful debt can be climbed probably once more litre, with the benefit between yield of other state bond difference still expands continuously, appreciate to anticipate and cease in the dollar below the anticipation that difference enlarges, beautiful debt hopeful continues to be chased after by investor hold in both hands. Because dollar assets avoids a variety of demand such as danger and investment fall, dollar index hopeful continues to go up, golden price is short-term will continue bear pressure, predict to will still maintain concussion to go situation.
Risk clew: Domestic policy carries out strength to anticipate not as good as; Metallic price fluctuates considerably send company outstanding achievement to glide; Global economy anabiosises slow; Supply of cupreous lead zinc increases considerably.
7, middle reaches cycle is tasted
(one) steely: Policy limit is comfortable carry brace up bldg. demand, produce can high pressure of environmental protection of overlay of utilization rate tall look forward to sends supply to shrink significantly quantity, value an industry to invest an opportunity
Li Sha
1, industry grade: Maintain " buy " grade.
2, main investment is logistic
Demand end, since July 2018, policy puts forward for many times " finance policy is expanding inside need and bigger effect is produced on structural adjustment, increase infrastructure domain to fill short board strength, requirement bank insurance increase pair of infrastructure domains to fill short board finance supports " , capital construction invests hopeful sole to pick up, aid thereby advance limit of capital construction demand comfortable stride bottom interval stage by stage. And landed terminal, of monetary policy comfortable restrain fluidity of untie a person, thereby hopeful of be issued to lower levels of continuity of cycle of landed interest rate conducts drive real estate smoothly to sell work off to exceed now anticipate tenacity, and the sale below small stock conducts speed to accelerate to investment, this may make landed steel needs to appear to anticipate difference. We judge: Policy limit is comfortable will release tie of capital construction financing, of monetary policy comfortable improvement real estate carries liquidity bind, tie to release carry brace up bldg. demand; Dilate of capital spending cycle supports manufacturing industry demand. Enter in September, busy season advance gradually, rate of downstream start working picks up stage by stage release rolled steel requirement, demand annulus is compared or tend improvement.
Supply end, accumulative total of 1-7 month cast iron, crude steel, rolled steel was added 2018 fast it is respectively 1.00% , 6.30% with 6.60% . Cast iron, crude steel and rolled steel day all were amounted to respectively in July 218, 262 mix 3.09 million tons, annulus score does not fall 0.82% , 1.97% with 3.04% , cast iron, crude steel and day of rolled steel monthly all crop 2018 since head fall. Be in at present produce blast furnace puddling can utilization rate, converter and electric stove steel-making are produced can utilization rate tall look forward to changes supply flexibility infirmly, of pressure of the environmental protection on limit add a general to bring steely supply to carry materiality to contract.
With respect to inventory character, on August 23, inventory of society of breed of main rolled steel 10.04 million tons, rise compared to the same period 4.53% , inventory of steelworks of breed of main rolled steel 4.12 million tons, fall compared to the same period 13.73% ; Library of company of breed of main rolled steel and factory library are aggregate 14.16 million tons, fall compared to the same period 1.53% , be in 15 years up to now 35% minutes. With respect to breed structure character, buy of counterpoint of photograph of inventory of senior capable person under plank. In whorl steel, wire, hot-rolling, Leng Juanhe thick board company library and factory library are in 15 years respectively up to now 7% minutes, 43% minutes, 55% minutes, 17% minutes with 44% minutes.
Raw material end, on August 24, steelworks coke inventory (110) amount to 3.98 million tons, continuously 5 weeks of be issued to lower levels, accumulative total reduces 390 thousand tons; Anxious furnace of independent cooking mill is produced can utilization rate (100) for 77.43% , successive two weeks glide 2.11Pct. Environmental protection high pressure restrains cooking to produce can release, annulus of overlay steelworks inventory is compared reduce, predicting coke goes situation slant strong. Average day number amounts to entrance ore reserve 28 days, annulus comparing decreases 1 day, inventory of haven iron ore amounts to one hundred and forty-nine million six hundred and twenty thousand tons, still be in historical perch, apiration of overlay steelworks filling library is insufficient, price of predicting iron ore goes situation slant weak, but want venture of vigilant exchange rate.
Link of busy season advance gradually, demand is stronger than going, normalization of environmental protection high pressure and hasten are severe change restrain crop to release, supply and demand aids gain closely to last evenly exalted, systematization risk astringent highlights iron and steel space of appraise value rehabilitate.
3, risk clew: Macroscopical economy is added fast glide considerably; Rolled steel exports a circumstance to anticipate not as good as; Be restricted to produce executive strength to anticipate under the market; Ore tycoon combines support value of reduction of output.
(2) power facilities new the sources of energy: Pay close attention to new cycle of car of new energy resources, new product, new era, be restricted report is improved continuously drive wind report to install machine promotion
Chen Zikun
Pay close attention to new cycle of car of new energy resources, new product, new era. Policy new cycle: Direct from dimensions character directs. Come to made the whole world in China 2016 country of produce and sale of car of the biggest new energy resources (2017 global portion 44% ) later, policy train of thought begins from " heavy dimensions " to " serious tone " change, 2017-2020 year the transition that is in new policy cycle period, after allowance was exited entirely 2021, double integral is made will become a layer to design core, gross government target produces sales volume from 2020 2 million promotion comes 2025 7 million, guide an industry to develop to the high quality direction of density of Gao Xuhang course of development, high energy at the same time, tall nickel 3 yuan, the new-style product hopeful such as silicon carbon negative pole and mild package batteries is accelerated push to the market. New technology new product: Sexual price compares comprehensive promotion, move toward par fuel car. Pure 2017 dynamoelectric multiply with the car 105Wh/kg of density of 200km of course of development of general add boat, energy, come to frequent 2018 promotion 140Wh/kg of density of 300km of add boat course of development, energy, in policy guiding and technical progress double stimulation falls, price of sex of model of new energy resources compares will comprehensive promotion, the emerge in large numbers of EX360 of steam of ERX5/Ei5 of above steam Rong Wei, north consumptive level product that is a delegate the market. Consider the cost move that integral policy brings, below the circumstance that does not have allowance, predict electric 2021 car is complete lifecycle cost will under fuel car, purchase cost general to electric 2025 car under fuel car, final pure report motor-car and par of fuel car implementation. Industrial new era: China of component of global report motor-car is made rise abruptly. Global power cell already was shown in (54% ) day (29% ) Han (15% ) tripartite confrontation pattern, homebred batteries turns to 3 yuan of courses to overtake from lithium of phosphoric acid iron day of Han. Experience the price war ablution that demand of industry of automobile of new energy resources erupts to be brought with allowance fall off, of dynamical cell and domain of fractionize of material of 4 big batteries get army the enterprise cuts a figure gradually. The prospective development as car of global new energy resources and tycoon of look forward to of domestic and international car send force in Chinese market, on homebred batteries and the foundation that 4 old stuff hopeful upgrade in the technology, produce the advantage of homebred cost advantage, hopeful is obtained through model of star of form a complete set similar the market of whole world of good luck trend that the apple before this supplies chain.
Promote accept of disappear of clean the sources of energy to build key way into electrified wire netting, be restricted report is improved continuously drive wind report to install machine promotion. Generate electricity as the new energy resources such as report of smooth hot season, wind occupy than progressively promotion, electrified wire netting promotes ability of accept of disappear of new energy resources to make the key way that electrified wire netting builds. Special high pressure and flexible dc transmit electricity, electrified wire netting attempers intelligence of ability construction, electrified wire netting changes construction, clean electric energy to trade the key that the market construction investment that conduces to accept of disappear of clean the sources of energy is construction of electrified wire netting invests way. Wind report domain is restricted report is improved continuously drive installation amount promotion, overlay quota is made anticipate those who come on stage to extend with the 7th batch of allowance to advance, hopeful drives cash of wind phone company to flow to be improved continuously. Below the system of contest price, bibcock company town occupies the promotion of rate to will make inevitable trend in light of metaphase.
Labour accuses tall boom to continue to obtain test and verify, demand lasts to good hopeful. Newest in July 2018 PMI is numeric 51.2% , maintain perch to move, downstream demand tall boom obtains test and verify further, continue to value labour to control annual development. Labour accuses an industry to enter boom to go up interval, dominate net data according to labour, 2017 market dimensions 165.6 billion yuan, compared to the same period + 16.5% , the industry adds fast centre to go up apparently move. Will for a long time look, the industry upgrades, population cost of aged, manpower soars wait for element drive to fall, hopeful of growth of the high speed in the industry lasts 2-3 year, furnish among them side reform, manufacturing industry upgrades drive project market get warm again after a cold spell; Consumption and burgeoning industry are pulled move OEM market to grow more quickly continuously. And labour accuses a technology upgrade, will model bigger market space for the industry. Dominate net data according to labour, 09-17 year city of native land brand constitutes rate promotion 10 Pct come 34.8% , still have bigger homebred change a space. Continuously below investment of research and development, ability of solution of increasingly rich, system promotes ethical brand product line considerably, accumulate by right of deep sale trench, the demand with taller product valence comparing, faster sex is answered and after service ability, bibcock company town is occupied rate promote continuously, will welcome rapidder development.
Risk clew: Produce and sale of car of new energy resources anticipates not as good as, machine of wind report outfit anticipates not as good as, labour accuses demand to anticipate not as good as etc, investment of electrified wire netting glides etc.
(3) mechanical: Answer uncertainty, value value of excessive of technology of research and development
Luo Libo
Trade demand continues to anabiosis: Since 2018, the essence of downstream investment picks up continue to push those who promote mechanical equipment industry to anabiosis level. In order to have representative product, grab is exemple, sales volume of home of 1-5 month accumulative total grows 57.7% compared to the same period, export sales volume grows 103.9% compared to the same period; The output of industrial robot grows 33.7% compared to the same period, grab and industrial robot are added in the quantity of produce and sale of 4-5 month fast all month of prep above 1-3, show 2 quarters are compared relative to the annulus of 1 quarter sign is good.
Uncertainty element increases: 1, policy is advanced fall lever, 1-5 month is new fall after a rise of the long term loan in adding 10.3% , the enterprise is bought through debt financing, extension it is difficult to do dimensions of big capital fund to become in order to achieve growth, answer demand cycle fall after a rise to have a challenge more. 2, the evolution of trade controversial issue, make ability of the asset configuration of the enterprise, price, technology is depended on degree etc accept risk test. Fall to good case in outstanding achievement, element of two big uncertainty is squelching machinery board piece share price expression.
Take price of excessive of technical research and development, new business seriously to breed experience: Current, downstream industry is based on the own development, consideration that participates in global competition, what take component of core equipment, core seriously more is homebred change a course, brought new development opportunity to mechanical equipment company. Narrate macroscopical setting to fall afore, the enterprise wants to grasp opportunity, more rely on sex of endogenous, innovation, the mode of low lever of small capital fund. We think to be based on commercialize premise to undertake the research and development of high strenth technology, outstanding equipment company that has new business to extend experience will show itself, obtain growing excessive price.
Investment proposal: Trade demand get warm again after a cold spell, company finance affairs is improved, we continue to give mechanical equipment the industry " buy " investment grade.
Risk clew: Controversial issue of macroscopical economic fluctuation, trade brings demand change; Raw material price rises to be affected to gain ability; New business dilate has uncertainty to wait.
(4) war industry: Growing sex has better investment value with what appraise is worth advantage mark
Hu Zhengyang
Review the change that the industry grew first half of the year 2018, army the propulsion that the progress reforms inside the refreshment that changes negotiable securities of assets of the progressively be born of the order after the influence, each group to change rhythm, industry.
First half of the year, especially since 2 quarters, trade order for goods and production grow quickly, industry boom restores, hopeful enters gas of 3 the year's harvest to increase by degrees periodic; Group of group of spaceflight family industry, spaceflight science and technology, weapons equipment group, medium the boat weighs industry group to wait for negotiable securities of assets of war industry group to change a movement to restart, we think " 935 " hind 3 years negotiable securities of each group assets changes the job onerous; Automation of arms outfit group is turned make plan obtain 8 ministries and commissions to combine general assembly of give an official, core kind appear on the market plan of company equity drive is rolled out, bonus of the reform inside the industry is released stage by stage.
Appraise value is in the history the bottommest interval, trade situation bearing picks up apparently.
? From the point of the index, in PE of static state of & of trends of index of card war industry is in the history the bottommest interval, appraise value and at the beginning of December 2012 keep balance basically.
? From in light of, industry form a complete set kind value of appraise of PE of static state of enterprise bibcock company is in 20-30 times, general assembly kind centre of value of appraise of PS of average static state restricts the company 1.7 times, all be in the history the bottommest interval.
? Look from main area, negotiable securities of trade order for goods, capital is changed since 2 quarters, reform plan is in limit to improve level entirely; Sign up for in premonitory in light of, had appeared more form a complete set kind company income profit exceeds continuously anticipate.
Main area and board piece go situation deviating from is good chance. We think, bottom position is worth in appraise, the abidance of main area limit improvement, board piece adjust will bring new opportunity of round of investment. Short-term in light of, if market color change is brought board piece rebound, bibcock company has better flexibility and liquidity; In light of metaphase, inside year the 2nd round appraise has to be worth advantage growing company, shipping to make after dropping board piece in having long-term configuration value:
? Underestimate a value to grow: Current, company of the bibcock inside the industry is mixed partial civilian joins the army company estimate value has stronger safe mat, welcome metaphase good opportunity.
? Shipping makes board piece: Naval ship maintains batch to enter the water posture, merchant ship issues processional course of study to anabiosis continuously, board piece in entering long-term when dot.
Risk clew: Industry estimate value is exorbitant, military expenditure lasts under anticipate, relevant policy publishs time under anticipate, capital negotiable securities changes existence bigger uncertainty, international condition change has unpredictable sex.
(5) building: Development is obtained again western take seriously, local debt issues hopeful to quicken, value capital construction relative performance is durative
Yao Yao
1, deploy of the State Council western development works, fill short board the key is the domain such as construction of traffic of ministry of Chinese and Western, sent in July change appoint examine and approve a project to be accelerated somewhat. 1) below the setting that increases in uncertainty of element of ministry of inside and outside, pressure of be issued to lower levels of economy of second half of the year still bigger, capital construction still is the direction with steady the clearest growth, and can be opposite effectively the influence of strong exterior risk. 2) development of deploy of the State Council is advanced western development works, the requirement accelerates start working to build the big channel such as plain Tibet railroad, Yu Kun railroad, capital construction of predicting second half of the year sends force focal point or be in center-west region; And pass comparative capital construction " 935 " development plans and at present in finished state, we discover railroad, highway and course are handed in still is bigger short board, in addition, capital construction supports the important way that environmental protection of deficient, zoology revitalizes as countryside, domain investment is added related predicting second half of the year fast also hopeful promotion. 3) hair change appoint examined and approve approve to invest a project in July 17 / 77.69 billion yuan, and examine and approve a project first half of the year in all 102 / 260.3 billion yuan, examined and approve speed to be accelerated somewhat in July. And course of and other places of near future Suzhou, Changchun hands in a program to obtain batch, for Baotou subway project made stop last year late change appoint first course of give an official makes an item, city course construction is examined and approve restart the supportive strength that reflected policy level to invest to capital construction likewise.
2, of capital construction capital put in train of thought, it is to be in severe accuse local financing platform on the foundation of recessive debt, accelerate the emission of local debt. 1) the Ministry of finance asks to accelerate a place special debt issues rate, in September the increases special debt newly emission before the bottom scale is not gotten under 80% , the emission of odd part works will finish in October for the most part. The 1.35 trillion special debt that makes according to the beginning of the year issues the forehead to spend, already issued first half of the year 367.3 billion, issued in July 195.9 billion, should issue in 8-9 month not less than 516.8 billion, will issue the specified number in October or achieve 270 billion yuan, all distribute a case first half of the year more than apparently (see a picture 10) ; 2) in card newspaper says, hopeful of weight of local debt risk from before 20% fall to 0, this action will enhance local debt appeal, the bank configures demand hopeful to promote significantly; 3) byelaw of the PPP before the end of the year or will come on stage, add up to compasses PPP hopeful to send force stage by stage, follow-up loan is carried also hopeful improvement; 4) central finance move pays to be able to have effective complement likewise (irrigation works of the railroad on the history basically is finished by central investment) . Predicting later period accompanies capital to fulfil reach the designated position reach capital construction project to examine and approve accelerate, capital construction investment adds fast hopeful look forward to firm pick up, capital construction of attention 8-9 month invests a circumstance; If financing of 1 trillion special debt is fulfilled,reach the designated position, investment of capital construction of second half of the year is added compared to the same period fast or amount to 15-16% , investment of annual capital construction adds fast hopeful to rise to 10% above.
3, hopeful of financing of later period credence is improved stage by stage, value capital construction relative performance is durative. 1) incident of 6 division short be in harmony affects large unit of the Xinjiang before sufferring this (corps already finished delay cash on August 15, and state delay cash is belonged to technical reason) , the market comes into being to be anxious certainly to capital construction financing, up to on August 24, AA city projects debt 3 years / 5 years period expire yield is 4.92%/5.27% respectively, relatively rise respectively last week 7bp/10bp; And AA company debt 3 years / 5 years period expire yield is 4.96%/5.51% , relatively drop respectively last week 4bp/6bp. Considering the country before this regular meeting makes known his position " platform of contented place financing is reasonable financing demand " , possibility of break a contact of platform of the place below good in policy interest background is lesser, hopeful of financing of later period credence is improved stage by stage, expire yield or present downtrend, reduce cost of construction company financing then. 2) in early days answer dish mention in the report, the duration of prices of comfortable drive capital construction all was in 4 rounds of policy in the past 6-9 month, absolutely / relative gains all is in respectively 40%/35% above, the early days on rhythm raises appraise cost, later period sees outstanding achievement; And capital construction prices is durative basically see detail policy fulfil, credit of company be in harmony improves, the condition that signs the respect such as order and main area improvement newly; Near future Ministry of finance asks to accelerate a place special debt issues speed, report to call local debt the risk weight or fall to 0, occurrence limit of data of credit of company be in harmony is improved, hopeful of catenary of industry of later period capital construction is progressively repair, value capital construction what behave relatively especially is prices, durative.
Company side, deploy of the State Council western development works, hopeful of financing of later period credence is improved stage by stage, value capital construction relative performance is durative, pay close attention to 3 masterstroke: 1) look forward to of center of low PB capital construction; 2) the state-owend enterprise of local capital construction with bigger flexibility; 3) capital construction front designs a company.
Risk clew: Change of macroscopical policy environment brings about the country trade situation bearing drops; Solid is cast add fast glide to bring about company order to be not amounted to quickly anticipate; "One belt all the way " policy be born anticipates not as good as; The new business transition such as small town of Internet home outfit, characteristic is not amounted to anticipate etc.
(6) building materials: Southern region cement rises in price be worth to expect, does need dog from the back what index?
Zou Ge
During we compared 2009-2018 10 years year off-season tariff shows in year, from rise in price first in light of time, the last ten-day of a month in August begins to rise in price belong to rise in price earlier, anhui of Shanghai of short for Zhejiang Province of core area river rises in price not only with two vast areas time is earlier, and off-season cheapen extent is lesser (the whole nation all price falls suffer northeast to depreciate influence) , from the point of historical experience, in front off-season cheapen extent jumps over small, busy season to rise in price time is earlier, explain trade supply demand relations has been jumped over, exceed profit at from the back busy season rises in price.
Return instantly, appear this year the probability of inflection point of cement be issued to lower levels is very low, this round of cement is periodic, because the puissant influence of supply side reform makes " supply decides (cement) price trend, demand is affected (cement) price elasticity " , duration of tall boom of occurrence cement price is so long (be enraged because of Gao Jing and produce without stimulation can release, continue to contract instead) , south strong north is weak (southern demand is good, gain flexibility is big; Northward demand is poor, gain flexibility is little) , in the future is looked into, supply and demand slants close relationship will still last (unless supply side policy appears major change, or demand appears to glide considerably) . From the point of the outstanding achievement inside year, compare as a result of strength of stop production of second half of the year the corresponding period is great last year, slant to supply demand relations hopeful of 4 quarters busy season exceeds value of close southern region cement anticipate rise, outstanding achievement still has super- anticipate on long space; From the point of appraise value, finance limit improvement is helpful for appraise of cement industry whole be worth promotion.
Risk clew: Macroscopical economy continues risk of be issued to lower levels, the macroscopical policy such as monetary estate fluctuates considerably risk, industry new put into production can exceed anticipate a risk, raw material cost has risen fast risk, change of structure of the sources of energy crosses fast risk, company management runs a risk.
(7) fundamental chemical industry: Value oil to taste upgrade with natural gas board piece investment opportunity; Oil price goes up easily to drop hard, normal of environmental protection high pressure, take seriously farming change, the chain such as petrifaction invests an opportunity, reach porcelain of 10 thousand embellish, country to wait to grow for a long time
King sword rain
Did not come for some time, the development posture of industry of fundamental chemical industry is:
(1) labour of most and periodic apperception is tasted in succession open boom anabiosises process, in supply relatively rigid circumstance falls, boom is durative will longer;
(2) oil price whole rises blandly, move on centre of predicting WTI oil price to 60~70 dollar / bucket;
(3) major chemical industry tastes the price to accompany crude price to fluctuate, careful chemical price is relatively stable; Supply carries the chemical industry with finer structure to taste have independent prices;
(4) environmental protection high pressure can quicken an industry to produce the arrival that can give Qing Dynasty and investment chance, attention is produced below severe setting of environmental protection hasten can likely permanent the chemical industry that exit child industry;
(5) periodic apperception labour tastes downstream demand tenacity, the burgeoning fractionize domain such as data of report of electronic chemical, lithium accords with an industry to upgrade trend, downstream demand space is larger, add fast faster. Give fundamental chemical industry the industry " buy " grade.
1, polyester industry catenary: (1) polyester fibber filament still is the best link in industrial catenary, 2017-2018 year boom of continuance of polyester fibber filament, price difference is firm in have go up, gain ability is improved continuously; (2) PTA differs the largest segment to anticipate in industrial catenary, also may be the segment with the largest flexibility of 18 years of outstanding achievement, we think of old plant answer it is good to produce pair of industries to will form long-term interest; (3) 2018-2019 year the go into operation that each civilian battalion refine turns a project, the increment of outstanding outstanding achievement that forms each company, each bibcock company also will produce the change of thoroughly remould oneself.
2, farming change an industry: (1) normalization of environmental protection high pressure, with farming the blowdown of industry of careful chemical industry that changes an industry to be a delegate is serious, processing difficulty is great, supply side systole is had durative, the bibcock company with perfect form a complete set of environmental protection establishment will be benefited adequately; (2) move on centre of international oil price, pay close attention to produce price elasticity.
3, underestimate value fractionize bibcock: Quality of a material of bibcock of partial fractionize industry is superior, outstanding achievement growth is solid and steady, standard of current estimate value still is in low.
4, electronic chemical: Semiconductor respect, according to semiconductor of Japan, Korea development history looks, "The country supports + enterprise linkage " a kind of be overtake of industrial curved talk efficient way. Industry of our country semiconductor grows quickly, will be the chemical of native land electron that has technology and service advantage and enterprise of upriver raw material to offer the history to expand opportunity; OLED respect, OLED is in the big plant such as apple, SamSung drive below, future replaces LCD is hasten of general trends place.
Crude market observes: American reserve data lasts under anticipate, dollar index goes strong, international oil price bear pressure.
OPEC newest monthly magazine shows, OPEC crude output increased 41 thousand pails in July / day comes thirty-two million three hundred and twenty-three thousand pails / day. Venezuela crude output continues to drop considerably 47 thousand pails / day, iranian output falls 56 thousand pails / day, libyan crude output falls 57 thousand pails / day, output of sand spy crude also falls 53 thousand pails / day, but Nigeria, a couplet chief of a tribe, of the country such as Kuwait and Iraq considerably the influence that increase production offsetted each country output falls.
Short-term inside although supply is stretch,we think to drop considerably, but supply is carried still capable to be laid in through the strategy inventory is released and odd reserve is produced can release increase short-term supply, because this is rising,anticipate with short-term under the rich play chess that releases crop and stock, oil price is anchor with main area, fluctuant below the influence of message face and financing area.
In view the bottleneck restriction that accepts conduit and export facilities for a long time, american crude output grows or will be faced with decelerate. The oil price that the United States will decide second half of the year and next year to the executive circumstance of Iranian punish goes situation. If be carried out completely to Iranian punish, criterion international oil price will be maintained go more by force situation, if be opposite Yi punish executive strength is weaker, criterion international oil price will last weak force moves.
Risk clew: 1, macroscopical level: Be like risk of macroscopical economy be issued to lower levels, the demand that relevant chemical industry tastes also has atrophic risk; If environment of international economy politics produces bigger change, crude price is acuteness and fluctuant. 2, industry level: A large amount of raw material prices are acuteness and fluctuant; Risk of trade policy wave motion. 3, company level: Company profit anticipates not as good as; Accident of great safety, environmental protection; New project progress anticipates not as good as.
(8) traffic carries: "Revolution iron " heavy fist hits out, executive effect hopeful exceeds anticipate
Guan Peng
Railroad: "Revolution iron " heavy fist hits out, executive effect hopeful exceeds the market to anticipate
Stem from fall cost and keep blue sky demand, carriage structural adjustment is imperative. In June, the State Council allots " dozen win blue sky to guard battle 3 years the action plans " , railroad head office also is made accordingly " program of action of increment of carry of 3 special purchases for the Spring Festival " , the requirement realizes volume of countrywide railroad freight to achieve 4.79 billion tons to 2020 (relatively increased 1.1 billion tons 2017, grow 30 ％ ) . Railroad freight metaphase promotes power establishment, industry boom spends will ceaseless promotion.
In the meantime, what carried out 18 years in January is new " acceptance of consignment is liquidated " regular, railroad freight is liquidated for acceptance of consignment from section liquidation change (similar passenger transport) , deliver goods namely just obtain gross wages, pay engine drawing cost, circuitry to use cost to wait to other railway administration. New liquidation method will straighten liquidation order, promotion only then hair bureau manages lever, arouse railway administration to manage motive force independently thereby, for increment of this railroad freight the action provides main initiative power.
Risk clew: New liquidation method carries concussion to be more than to cost anticipate, "Revolution iron " trend improvement anticipates not as good as; Special type box puts in railroad to anticipate not as good as; Entrust improvement trade risk of bad Zhang of receivable Zhang money.
Risk clew
Overview of viewpoint of every months of research is based on each trade group to future the main area of a month and gain circumstance are judged, each industry is in make recommend finally have its economy and policy premise, may put in economy and policy and us to expect abhorrent case.
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