To sum up in a word, bubble of Chinese building city is in before long will undone, future will be building city two years or so vested interest person undertake forcing finally to the firm person that need empty. In view of seriousness of extreme of foamy of Chinese building city, once did not come house price this bubble is undone, its name price will fall greatly, the probability of soft landing of Chinese building city already very low.
2016 - 2017, it may be said is the person that China just needed most get a few sufferring months, look at house price to rise considerably on one hand; See the room is borrowed on the other hand tighten up, future of for fear that pays higher interest, among them more a lot of people are watched all the time hope to await national adjusting control to make house price drops.
Chinese city is in the world the be among the best of candidates in the highest estate market, exceeded Tokyo, London and new York even, the United States " Atlantic " the magazine writes: On the world 10 let the city that the person has 7 in susceptive estate market hard is China expensively greatly -- Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Tianjin, Guangzhou. If according to two the most commonly used standards, bubble of Chinese building city is very serious: Income comparing is in the house price of city of a gleam of already generally 25 times above, and the price of house property is compared with what the month hires valence achieved 500~600 generally also times, appeared even of more than 800 times.
Nevertheless, the countless observation that forecast Chinese building to city will break down or drop greatly be rebuffed, even if is banquet of economics award winner straps new Kenuobeier indispensable also, he ever was forecasted well and truly 2002 American science and technology bubble and bubble of American building city is undone 2007, and to Chinese building city, he ever was mixed 2012 the building city bubble that warned China twice 2016, but Chinese building city stricks back to him with rising once more now.
The first element, the country is determined to replace land finance with estate tax.
The 2nd element, demand of tigidity of Chinese marriage room drops considerably, and the room that put an amount reduces supply to increase because of population. This means the addition of residential supply. In a word, supply and demand of Chinese marriage room will produce major change 2018.
The 3rd element, when international heats up Qian He from swarm into turn and large-scale pour out of. International heats up Qian Liu to enter China, have two objectives, it is in China mainland earns more profit, 2 it is the exchange rate earnings that achieves RMB unilateral to appreciate; And the mainest exterior factor is when the United States enters a dollar to tighten up cycle. Hot now money gains profit in China the space has been inferior to greatly once upon a time, the RMB appreciates slow with each passing day.
To sum up in a word, bubble of Chinese building city is undone will happen in future two years inside, future will be building city two years vested interest person undertake forcing finally to the firm person that need empty. Can you be in this building city " on card index 5000 bits of above " does period buy a house?
