Nowhere is not in data flicker, the court in your affirmation passes!

Data flicker has become a kind of social effects of pollution, press, duty field reports, financing data has the place of data flicker everywhere. Begin from coverage of a group of media first, same day is below the media coverage of a certain place. Preliminary look, the conclusion that looks like 3 media has some of contradictory and unusual place.

Stem from occupational sensitivity, I won't be gone to by caption party flicker for certain, the source that can find an article certainly is read in detail.

Data source: 2011 the housing month hire of Guiyang city every square metre all valence is 21.21 yuan, in June 2016 hire every square metre all valence is 23.44 yuan. Rose 5 many years only 10.51% (provenance of data of Guizhou business newspaper, precious trader says below) . Guiyang town house pressed a plan month hire to be every to cover 2011 all valence 1216.5 yuan, every were covered in June 2016 all valence is 1435.27 yuan, rose 5 many years only 17.98% (provenance of data of Guizhou Metropolis Daily, say below expensive) . 5 years, hire history is highest be 2014, lunar hire every square metre all valence is 24.82 yuan, 2015 lunar hire every square metre all price falls it is 23.65 yuan, in June 2016, lunar hire every square metre all valence has glided reach 23.44 yuan (provenance of data of Guizhou evening paper, expensive evening says below) .

Often see me the friend of small Bo Weixin knows, I often disclose the affair of flicker of a few data. From the point of data source, the caption data of 3 media does not have a problem, without flicker person. Put these 3 pieces of paper together however instead comparative media, have the suspicion that raises a thing intentionally.

Nevertheless, doesn't this triplet newspaper have flicker really? Have actually, they are choosing different conclusion. Expensive Shang Hegui chose to highlight go up, costly late alternative reports the theme is to drop. Nevertheless on the whole 3 media are to reporting a fact.

Recur today's theme, industry data analyses the level to come up. Do what data analyses to know, value of definition of the data with different choice, index, weight, interval can produce different verdict. Eldest child of a lot of companies people the data that see is actually by analyst or business personnel " choose " the high grade data after, so I often say data analysis is conscience industry. Data is objective, the person of data backside is subjective.

Lift a few chestnut to explain, all data all are under fictitious, if have duplicate that with respect to coincidence.

The case of hire is best proof of this bit actually in front, choose nature of conclusion of unused data source different. The market share that everybody still may record so that firm of several mobile phones said him last year the first, some companies use share of amount computation market (the company with high unit price can gain extra advantage by unfair means) , some companies calculate market share with shipment stage number (this is helpful for the company with small unit price) , some companies say he are in fractionize market share the first (for instance white-collar market share the first, share of student group market the first, share of high-end machine market first-class)

The conclusion with different data different source is the powerful weapon of consumer of flicker of a lot of companies.

Group of radar of some 7 people in World War II, radar group officer requests to enhance power to upper body again and again, add 1-2 person, but did not receive approval all the time. But when among them when the nerve of a member breaks down, this officer changed strategy, such writing of his application report: "The personnel of 14 ％ becomes as a result of overweight burden absentminded, appear even the phenomenon of be off one's head. " because this reports,the result is, what this officer got former instinct gets comparing him is much much personnel.

Original what he uses is sheer number this index, change percentage later effect of this opposite index differs greatly.

Do a sale to know stock turnover rate almost this index, it is to use an index that measures level of management of company sale staff commonly, had jumped over greatly more commonly inside certain level. But you can know, with this index that will measure subordinate likelihood by them " reasonable " use flicker to cross you!

Formula is as follows:

= of stock turnover rate (inside cycle of a certain sale) amount of average stock of sale amount ÷

The denominator of turnover rate is average stock, groovy usage is (period first inventory + period end inventory) / 2, but if change target,the word of the definition has the effect that raises stock turnover rate however.

A certain area below a certain company period first inventory 2 million yuan, sold 20 million yuan of goods in all in those days, if amount of replenish onr's stock is actual,be 23 million yuan, meaning period end inventory is 5 million yuan.

With in front the algorithm of average stock gets tip of formula period initial stage the stock turnover rate that come out is 5.7.

If replenish onr's stock sells rhythm to pursue as follows, with mean monthly inventory calculates stock turnover rate is 6.3 (enter every months, sell data to differ, computation can have difference as a result, differ choose a site for the capital is 6.3) , prep above the first kind of algorithm.

Data did not change, was to adjusted the algorithmic stock turnover rate of average stock to arrive by 5.7 litres merely 6.3, change turnover rate of a kind of algorithmic stock again actually the meeting is taller. Pursue as follows, get addition of lunar stock turnover rate year of stock turnover rate, the value is 6.8.

This is the Sun Wu sky in fokelore 72 change, definition of which kinds of index is interesting use the sort of. Checking, everybody sees next problems:

A certain branch shares 20 employee (personnel of this department staff counts 25) , these 20 employee resigned entirely this month, the middle of a month enters office newly 10 people. Excuse me this branch leaves his post how much is leading:

The answer 1 | Leave one's post rate 67%

The answer 2 | Leave one's post rate 80%

The answer 3 | Leave one's post rate 100%

The answer 4 | Leave one's post rate 133%

The answer 5 | Leave one's post rate 200%

Are you chosen which? Speak reason in the comment please!

Xiaozhang is the HR chief inspector of some company, the company should choose the outstanding sale group first half of the year this year, can be as follows for referenced index:

If from B group should be optimal sale group undoubtedly for average, but Xiaozhang has bit of self, bear the palm of hope C group, how to do? This does not pour Xiaozhang hard, move weight.

If use average C group,the platoon is in the 3rd, if press 0.4-0.3-0.3 to allocate the word C group of the weight of 3 index,still be the 3rd, be no good. Platoon of group of the C when weight changes 0.3-0.3-0.4 is in the 2nd, still be no good. Final Xiaozhang used the weight of 0.3-0.2-0.5 to distributing, let C group successfully become the first.

I think those who say is: Weight is first-rate the method of behave like a hooligan. Do not tell me you had not played.

Xiaowang is the selling manager of a retail firm, just passed on July 31, he with respect to too impatient to wait let subordinate be the same as inn this month to oneself compared to the same period growth data, subordinate told him to grew 1.0% compared to the same period than was the same as inn last year this year in July. A heart that Xiaowang is hanging is put eventually. Because the boss gave him a dead order last month, if be the same as,inn let his come off sentry duty compared to the same period in July.

Final nevertheless Xiaowang or come off sentry duty, be the same as inn because of what the boss says him compared to the same period data is negative growth, did not reach desired value. Xiaowang feels he returns injustice than Dou E, be the same as inn obviously is the growth of 1.0% compared to the same period. Because had only last year in July,the boss gives the reason that come out is 4 groups Saturday day, had this year in July 5 groups Saturday day, according to the rule of retail business, day sale should increase 4.6% ability to calculate many groups Saturday planish (different company is worth this the meeting is different, be in commonly 3-5% , can according to numerate of business history data) .

This is same data but difference is unscrambled in what different business background falls.

For not by others flicker our everybody needs practice to become a pair of piercing eye, what is the data source that asks opposite party first when taking datagram to accuse? What is index definition? Ask a few ask what more as far as possible, after understanding data completely only, just may decrease by the odds of flicker.

How? Is what you think you see you see? Some people like to see you know in flicker you seek the appearance that is less than flicker evidence however obviously.

Come, the small gain that adds me " number says " member, let me teach you how to prevent data flicker: