Newspaper office of FX168 finance and economics (Hong Kong) dispatch last weekend, the most astonishing difference that beautiful silver emphasized observing since financial crisis: Since Lei Man goes bankrupt, stock market of blame United States behaves abdicate inside 3 months at the United States, american bank expresses, this one difference " reaching the level that exceeds in Xiong Fu only normally " .
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, Peng Bo, FX168)
A lot of other asset categories that include bank of stock market of heavy goods, China, Europe to be waited a moment inside observed this one difference, its were entered recently so called " scroll Xiong Fu " . The Michael Hartnett of American bank is written in newest report, the beginning of the year up to now, except American science and technology the global stock market besides dropped 6.2% , and 1150 rising markets not less than 809 entered Xiong Fu.
And American bank does not worry about the stock market, worry about bond more however, especially the BBB bond of American investment grade, these bond year change a loss to be as high as 3.2% (bad mood since 1988) . Harnett thinks, this ability is true " the canary in the colliery " .
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
If " canary " singing really -- if still is ignored by place of American stock market -- so stem from a reason, and very simple: According to the view of Harnett, a person should " buy in the Central Bank fashionable buy, sell when going out, sell piece " .
Actually, so far, the whole world is quantified comfortable " downwind " still be here, bring about record-breaking whole world the every accrual, United States GDP of 4% is added fast, the share that the United States of 1.5 trillion dollar reduces duty, 1 trillion dollar is counter-purchased... however, the return rate 2018 is very low however.
The reason is very familiar: The liquidity with excess whole world is in changeover, namely " of excess liquidity terminative " .
According to Harnett, excess liquidity is in terminative: Global Central Bank bought property of 1.6 trillion dollar 2016, bought 2017 2.3 trillion, shrank 2018 to 300 billion, arrived to will turn to go out to sell completely 2019 200 billion. Rose in January from next year, global fluidity will appear negative growth.
It is just about under this big setting, the whole world has begun to appear " scroll Xiong Fu " (point to different board piece, industry or asset alternate drop) , hartnett points out, the domino that the digital money such as bit money topples the first piece just about this year.
This let us return the topic of scroll ursine city, perhaps say like Hartnett place in that way: "Bit money arrives Popcoin " , the domino that the digital money such as bit money topples the first piece just about this year:
And drop at present tide has spread to Bo of Turkey lira, Venezuela Liwaer, Argentina compares rupee of all alone, India, Brazil special grade of Liyaer, south Africa orchid is burgeoning market money. More dangerous is, the risk of rising market is being delivered through exchange rate, interest rate and company profit to Europe, even the United States.
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
Hartnett emphasized the crisis quota that he likes most again: The collapse of Brazilian Li Yaer drops. He is written, at present Liyaer has achieved euro add Brazil the history is new tall, and " from the point of the history its often are accompanied with crisis incident photograph. And " from the point of the history its often are accompanied with crisis incident photograph..
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
Although the United States and world are other,the difference between the country may be unique, but it has happened in the different situation in the past, the most apparent is 1998.
This is derivative next issue: The reprint that current market was 1998? To Hartnett, the answer is affirmative, the reason is as follows:
Beautiful couplet store be in constrictive cycle;
American market and other area split up;
Yield curve hasten is smooth;
Rising market breaks down;
Lever quantifies politic expression not beautiful.
All these are as similar as 98 years; But having a thing is to be short of those who break: The whole world is infected.
To the person that those may not remember or has not be born, 1998, 98 years Asian crisis is able to diffuse through Japan:
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
Speed 20 years, beautiful silver-colored CIO believes, this, europe will become the center that global crisis spread 2018, the foreign order of German capital goods is in dropped in 7 months in the past 12% , the arrival of this adumbrative crisis.
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
If come from foreign order of Germany,be " canary " , american bank is forecasted, as the repatriate of European Union investor, euro will fluctuate considerably in autumn, this will " show rising market is evolving to go for the whole world lever turns incident " .
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
If European euro is collected,answering is the first agency that the crisis spreads, american bank is forecasted, the 2nd, also be a more apparent, it is debt, or credit crisis:
Credit breath difference enlarged the 2nd infectious agency:
The proportion that European debt holds GDP is 258% , china is 256% , rising market is 194% , bond of American investment class has jumped from the 1.08 trillion dollar 2008 to 4.93 trillion dollar. We will pay close attention to risks of these credit of excessive and indebted area closely spread.
Altogether, hartnett final ask a question, at present " FAANG+BAT " these 8 science and technology in already 4 drop into Xiong Fu area, can they have survival when is final bubble undone? This also will be the terminative demonstrate road of coming global crisis, "Final investor sells they have the thing of some and love, in systematic risk and beautiful couplet store blink between jump to jump. In systematic risk and beautiful couplet store blink between jump to jump..
(graph source: Net of finance and economics of beautiful silver, FX168)
Throw crisis of banking of bank of travel viewpoint United StatesShare
