News of FX168 finance and economics (Hong Kong) last weekend, american bank emphasized one of the most astonishing difference since financial crisis: From 3 the middle of a month since Lei Man goes bankrupt, blame US stock is behaved in the United States not beautiful, and American bank expresses, difference " achieved N level " . Exceeded in Xiong Fu merely.
This differentia different is in a lot of other asset categories, include bank of stock market of heavy goods, China, Europe to wait to be entered recently so called " scroll Xiong Fu " had observed in asset category. American bank (the Michael Er of Bank Of America) ? Hateneite (Michael Hartnett) is in its are written in newest report, this year up to now, do not incorporate American science and technology inside global stock market already dropped 6.2% , and in share of 1150 when enter Xiong Fu rising markets, not less than 809.
American bank worries about the stock market no longer, worry about bond more however, especially bond of BBB of American investment grade, BBB bond is annual deficit 3.2%(1988 year since the worst mood) . Harnett thinks this is true " canary is in colliery " .
If canary is singing really, if it still is ignored by place of American stock market, so one of reasons are very simple: According to the view of Harnett, people should " centrally bank is bought fashionable buy, selling when going out, sell piece " .
In fact, up to now, the whole world is quantified comfortable " downwind " had come, bring about record-breaking whole world of 1.5 trillion dollar of the growth of GDP 4% of every accrual, United States, United States decrease duty and the stock of 1 trillion dollar to counter-purchase... however, the return rate of 2018 is very low.
The reason is very familiar: Global liquidity is excess changeover, namely liquidity is excess terminative.
According to Haneite's view, liquidity is excess ending: Global Central Bank bought the property of 1.6 trillion dollar 2016, 2.3 trillion dollar was bought 2017, 2018 cut to 300 billion dollar, arrive to will sell a 200 billion dollar completely 2019. Rose in January from next year, global fluidity will enjoy growth.
Hartnett points out, fall in this kind of setting just about, "Scroll ursine city " begin to appear in world each district, and the digital money such as bit money is this year first dropping domino.
This brings back us to Xiong Fu again, perhaps say like Hartnett place " bit money arrives Pop. " , over, digital money, for instance bit money, it is this year the first declined domino.
Current low fan had spread to rising market money, if benefit of Bo of Turkey lira, Venezuela is made of baked clay,Er republic, Argentina compares Li Yaer of rupee of all alone, India, Brazil and south Africa orchid special. More dangerous is, rising market risk is delivering Europe through exchange rate, interest rate and company profit even the United States.
Hartnett emphasized the crisis quota that he likes most again: Of Brazilian Li Yaer break down. He is written, euro has achieved the history to exchange rate of Brazilian Li Yaer new tall, "Look from the history, euro often is accompanying crisis incident. Euro often is accompanying crisis incident..
Although the United States and world are other,the difference between the place may be distinctive, but they happened in different situation in the past, the most remarkable is 1998.
This is derivative next issue: Is current market the duplicate of 1998? To Hartnett, the answer is affirmative, the reason is as follows:
In the loop that beautiful couplet Chu Zheng is in an insecurity.
American market and other area are different.
Yield curve is smooth.
Of rising market break down;
Lever quantifies the strategy to behave not beautiful.
All these are as similar as 98 years, but a thing disappears: The whole world spreads.
To the person that those may not remember or has not be born, the Asian banking crisis of 1998 is in 1998 travel through Japan:
American bank (Bank Of America) presiding information officer (CIO) think, advance 20 years quickly, this Europe will be become 2018 the center of global crisis, the foreign order of German capital product is in 7 the middle of a month dropped in the past 12% , the arrival of adumbrative crisis.
If come from foreign order of Germany,be canary, american bank is forecasted, as the regression of European Union investor, euro will fluctuate considerably in autumn, this will " show rising market is evolving into a whole world to go lever turns incident " .
American bank is forecasted, if Europe collects an euro,be the first kind of agency that the crisis spreads, so the 2nd kind also is more apparent agency it is debt or credit crisis:
Credit price difference expanded the 2nd infect agency.
258% what European debt occupies GDP, china is 256% , rising market is 194% , bond of American investment class rises from the violent wind of 1.08 trillion dollar 2008 to 4.93 trillion dollar. We will pay close attention to what credit risk is in these excessive and indebted areas closely to spread.
Anyhow, hartnett asks finally, at present 8 science and technology of FAANG+BAT market in 4 drop into Xiong Fu only, when bubble burst, whether can they still survive? This also points to clear direction for coming global crisis: "Final, investor sells what they have some and the thing that have deep love for, in systematization risk and beautiful couplet store blink between bouncing. In systematization risk and beautiful couplet store blink between bouncing..
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